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Économie·Indicateurs Macro

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

icon for China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
Économie·Indicateurs Macro

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

juil. 16

juil. 16

4.6-4.9% 66%

4.3-4.6% 32.8%

4.9-5.2% 2.7%

4.0-4.3% <1%

Polymarket

$97,955 Vol.

4.6-4.9% 66%

4.3-4.6% 32.8%

4.9-5.2% 2.7%

4.0-4.3% <1%

Polymarket

$97,955 Vol.

<4.0%

$7,224 Vol.

<1%

4.0-4.3%

$10,376 Vol.

1%

4.3-4.6%

$11,972 Vol.

33%

4.6-4.9%

$21,916 Vol.

66%

4.9-5.2%

$11,742 Vol.

3%

5.2-5.5%

$9,661 Vol.

<1%

5.5-5.8%

$7,624 Vol.

<1%

5.8-6.1%

$9,286 Vol.

<1%

6.1%+

$8,154 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) market reflects trader consensus around moderation from Q1’s 5.0% reading toward the official 4.5–5.0% full-year target. Resilient exports (up sharply early in the year), manufacturing momentum in AI-related and green sectors, and stable external demand have provided support, while soft retail sales, subdued consumption, and ongoing property-sector weakness continue to weigh on domestic demand. Recent May indicators showed industrial output holding up but consumer spending remaining cautious, consistent with the “strong supply, weak demand” pattern. Most external forecasts for 2026 cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, aligning with expectations that Q2 will settle in the 4.6–4.9% range absent major new stimulus or external shocks. Resolution will follow official National Bureau of Statistics data later in July.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$97,955
Date de fin
16 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) market reflects trader consensus around moderation from Q1’s 5.0% reading toward the official 4.5–5.0% full-year target. Resilient exports (up sharply early in the year), manufacturing momentum in AI-related and green sectors, and stable external demand have provided support, while soft retail sales, subdued consumption, and ongoing property-sector weakness continue to weigh on domestic demand. Recent May indicators showed industrial output holding up but consumer spending remaining cautious, consistent with the “strong supply, weak demand” pattern. Most external forecasts for 2026 cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, aligning with expectations that Q2 will settle in the 4.6–4.9% range absent major new stimulus or external shocks. Resolution will follow official National Bureau of Statistics data later in July.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$97,955
Date de fin
16 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

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Questions fréquentes

« China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 4.6-4.9% » à 66%, suivi de « 4.3-4.6% » à 33%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 66¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 66% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026? » a généré $98K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 20, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026? », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026? » est « 4.6-4.9% » à 66%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 66% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 4.3-4.6% » à 33%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.