Cepeda Castro’s steady lead in recent polls, backed by the left coalition’s organizational strength and President Petro’s endorsement, has shaped trader expectations around a first-round victory margin of 10-15 points. Polling averages from late April through mid-May place him near 37-44 percent, well ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 21-29 percent and Paloma Valencia at 20-22 percent, reflecting a split conservative vote that reduces the chance of a closer or wider gap. De la Espriella’s recent gains as the hardline outsider have lifted his implied probability for second place, while Valencia’s institutional support has not closed the distance. With the May 31 vote approaching and no candidate near an outright majority, the current pricing captures the narrow band most consistent with these trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 30%
de la Espriella Win 16%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 10.1%
$14,918 Vol.
$14,918 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
30%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
10%
de la Espriella Win
16%
Valencia Win
1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 30%
de la Espriella Win 16%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 10.1%
$14,918 Vol.
$14,918 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,798 Vol.
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$1,213 Vol.
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$1,102 Vol.
39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$1,116 Vol.
30%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$1,252 Vol.
10%
de la Espriella Win
$4,100 Vol.
16%
Valencia Win
$2,270 Vol.
1%
Other
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cepeda Castro’s steady lead in recent polls, backed by the left coalition’s organizational strength and President Petro’s endorsement, has shaped trader expectations around a first-round victory margin of 10-15 points. Polling averages from late April through mid-May place him near 37-44 percent, well ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 21-29 percent and Paloma Valencia at 20-22 percent, reflecting a split conservative vote that reduces the chance of a closer or wider gap. De la Espriella’s recent gains as the hardline outsider have lifted his implied probability for second place, while Valencia’s institutional support has not closed the distance. With the May 31 vote approaching and no candidate near an outright majority, the current pricing captures the narrow band most consistent with these trends.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$14,918Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cepeda Castro’s steady lead in recent polls, backed by the left coalition’s organizational strength and President Petro’s endorsement, has shaped trader expectations around a first-round victory margin of 10-15 points. Polling averages from late April through mid-May place him near 37-44 percent, well ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 21-29 percent and Paloma Valencia at 20-22 percent, reflecting a split conservative vote that reduces the chance of a closer or wider gap. De la Espriella’s recent gains as the hardline outsider have lifted his implied probability for second place, while Valencia’s institutional support has not closed the distance. With the May 31 vote approaching and no candidate near an outright majority, the current pricing captures the narrow band most consistent with these trends.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$14,918Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cepeda Castro’s steady lead in recent polls, backed by the left coalition’s organizational strength and President Petro’s endorsement, has shaped trader expectations around a first-round victory margin of 10-15 points. Polling averages from late April through mid-May place him near 37-44 percent, well ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 21-29 percent and Paloma Valencia at 20-22 percent, reflecting a split conservative vote that reduces the chance of a closer or wider gap. De la Espriella’s recent gains as the hardline outsider have lifted his implied probability for second place, while Valencia’s institutional support has not closed the distance. With the May 31 vote approaching and no candidate near an outright majority, the current pricing captures the narrow band most consistent with these trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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