Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will remain in office past December 31, 2026, reflecting his firm institutional control, a weakened opposition facing legal actions including arrests and party leadership challenges, and the absence of scheduled elections or parliamentary moves for snap votes before 2028. Public statements from Erdoğan and advisers continue to reference completing the current term, with no verified developments indicating incapacity or resignation. While health speculation persists without confirmation, realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a sudden medical event triggering succession procedures or an unforeseen major political rupture within the ruling alliance, though such shifts lack supporting evidence in the near term.