**Maduro faces U.S. narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York following his January 2026 capture and transfer to federal custody.** Both he and his wife have entered not guilty pleas, with a June 2027 trial date set in July 2026. Defense counsel has signaled pretrial motions to dismiss based on head-of-state immunity and challenges to the circumstances of his removal from Venezuela, drawing on precedents like the Noriega case while highlighting distinctions. The extended pretrial window through late 2026 and into 2027 provides time for further filings, potential plea discussions, diplomatic developments, or shifts in U.S. executive policy that could alter the case trajectory or prevent conviction on every count. Traders assign the 71% "No" probability to reflect these procedural and structural uncertainties rather than an assessment of the underlying indictment evidence alone.