Recent polling for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election shows a competitive race under mixed-member proportional representation, with National-led coalition support fluctuating around or above 47% in June surveys while Labour trails or leads narrowly depending on the firm. Traders price National as the most likely winner, positioning Labour as the frontrunner for second place amid opposition recovery and Green Party gains that have boosted the left bloc in select polls. Key influences include the incumbent government’s handling of economic pressures ahead of the Budget, Labour’s recent party-list release and policy pledges on transport costs, and minor-party movements such as NZ First and ACT consolidation within the governing bloc. The close contest between the two major parties, combined with historical patterns of coalition dynamics, underpins the current implied probabilities reflected in market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNew Zealand Election: 2nd Place
New Zealand Election: 2nd Place
National Party 60%
Labour Party 27%
New Zealand First Party 4.0%
ACT New Zealand <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 nov. 2026
National Party
60%
Labour Party
27%
New Zealand First Party
4%
ACT New Zealand
1%
Te Pāti Māori
1%
Green Party
<1%
National Party 60%
Labour Party 27%
New Zealand First Party 4.0%
ACT New Zealand <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 nov. 2026
National Party
$1,805 Vol.
60%
Labour Party
$1,501 Vol.
27%
New Zealand First Party
$700 Vol.
4%
ACT New Zealand
$701 Vol.
1%
Te Pāti Māori
$707 Vol.
1%
Green Party
$359 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election shows a competitive race under mixed-member proportional representation, with National-led coalition support fluctuating around or above 47% in June surveys while Labour trails or leads narrowly depending on the firm. Traders price National as the most likely winner, positioning Labour as the frontrunner for second place amid opposition recovery and Green Party gains that have boosted the left bloc in select polls. Key influences include the incumbent government’s handling of economic pressures ahead of the Budget, Labour’s recent party-list release and policy pledges on transport costs, and minor-party movements such as NZ First and ACT consolidation within the governing bloc. The close contest between the two major parties, combined with historical patterns of coalition dynamics, underpins the current implied probabilities reflected in market pricing.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$5,773Date de fin
7 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election shows a competitive race under mixed-member proportional representation, with National-led coalition support fluctuating around or above 47% in June surveys while Labour trails or leads narrowly depending on the firm. Traders price National as the most likely winner, positioning Labour as the frontrunner for second place amid opposition recovery and Green Party gains that have boosted the left bloc in select polls. Key influences include the incumbent government’s handling of economic pressures ahead of the Budget, Labour’s recent party-list release and policy pledges on transport costs, and minor-party movements such as NZ First and ACT consolidation within the governing bloc. The close contest between the two major parties, combined with historical patterns of coalition dynamics, underpins the current implied probabilities reflected in market pricing.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$5,773Date de fin
7 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election shows a competitive race under mixed-member proportional representation, with National-led coalition support fluctuating around or above 47% in June surveys while Labour trails or leads narrowly depending on the firm. Traders price National as the most likely winner, positioning Labour as the frontrunner for second place amid opposition recovery and Green Party gains that have boosted the left bloc in select polls. Key influences include the incumbent government’s handling of economic pressures ahead of the Budget, Labour’s recent party-list release and policy pledges on transport costs, and minor-party movements such as NZ First and ACT consolidation within the governing bloc. The close contest between the two major parties, combined with historical patterns of coalition dynamics, underpins the current implied probabilities reflected in market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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