Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride
Byron Donalds 88%
James Fishback 9%
Jay Collins 2.7%
Casey DeSantis <1%
$1,531,175 Vol.
$1,531,175 Vol.
18 août 2026
Byron Donalds
$116,902 Vol.
88%
James Fishback
$384,117 Vol.
9%
Jay Collins
$710,563 Vol.
3%
Casey DeSantis
$183,696 Vol.
<1%
Wilton Simpson
$55,804 Vol.
<1%
Matt Gaetz
$35,742 Vol.
<1%
Jimmy Patronis
$44,351 Vol.
<1%
Byron Donalds 88%
James Fishback 9%
Jay Collins 2.7%
Casey DeSantis <1%
$1,531,175 Vol.
$1,531,175 Vol.
18 août 2026
Byron Donalds
$116,902 Vol.
88%
James Fishback
$384,117 Vol.
9%
Jay Collins
$710,563 Vol.
3%
Casey DeSantis
$183,696 Vol.
<1%
Wilton Simpson
$55,804 Vol.
<1%
Matt Gaetz
$35,742 Vol.
<1%
Jimmy Patronis
$44,351 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Congressman Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Florida governor, reflecting recent polling that shows him capturing 54 percent support among likely GOP voters. President Trump's endorsement has accelerated consolidation of Republican backing, enabling Donalds to draw undecided voters at a faster rate than competitors and widen his margin over James Fishback and Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins. These dynamics have limited traction for lower-polling entrants such as Casey DeSantis, Wilton Simpson, Matt Gaetz, and Jimmy Patronis. The August primary timeline keeps focus on sustained voter consolidation and any late campaign developments that could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Congressman Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Florida governor, reflecting recent polling that shows him capturing 54 percent support among likely GOP voters. President Trump's endorsement has accelerated consolidation of Republican backing, enabling Donalds to draw undecided voters at a faster rate than competitors and widen his margin over James Fishback and Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins. These dynamics have limited traction for lower-polling entrants such as Casey DeSantis, Wilton Simpson, Matt Gaetz, and Jimmy Patronis. The August primary timeline keeps focus on sustained voter consolidation and any late campaign developments that could still influence the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Apr 29 2026
Jay Collins’ market price slides to 5% after missing debate invitation
Collins was not invited to the televised GOP debate, signaling limited party support and pushing his price down to single digits.
Apr 18 2026
James Fishback’s poll numbers dip below 10% after fundraising reports
James Fishback dips to 9%3%
Fishback disclosed a modest $500,000 fundraising total, causing his market price to fall from 12% to 9% as donors shifted to Donalds.
Byron Donalds reached a peak market price of 93%, reflecting strong confidence in his likelihood to win the Republican primary for Florida governor as other candidates' support waned.
Apr 2 2026
Byron Donalds peaks at 93% after winning key endorsement from Florida Senate President
Byron Donalds jumps to 93%5%
The Florida Senate President publicly endorsed Donalds, creating a brief market peak to 93% before a modest pullback, while all other candidates fell to near‑zero.
Apr 1 2026
Gov. Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Governor DeSantis called a special legislative session in April 2026 to redraw congressional districts, intensifying GOP infighting and political maneuvering in Florida. While this affected the broader political landscape, it had limited direct impact on the gubernatorial primary market.
Mar 14 2026
Byron Donalds hits 87% price after DeSantis hints at endorsement
Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%
Governor Ron DeSantis said he would consider endorsing a candidate but did not name anyone; market inferred likely support for Donalds, sending his price to 87% and further marginalizing others.
Feb 25 2026
Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid continues to solidify
Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%
Byron Donalds' campaign maintained its momentum as the primary frontrunner, with his market price rising steadily throughout the period.
Feb 25 2026
Byron Donalds maintains strong lead in Florida GOP gubernatorial primary market
Byron Donalds rises to 81%2%
Byron Donalds' market price remained high following his early announcement and Trump's endorsement, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Republican primary.
Feb 19 2026
National Governors Association meeting disrupted by Trump excluding Democrats
The annual governors' meeting in Washington was upended after President Trump excluded Democratic governors from White House events, highlighting partisan tensions that may influence Republican primaries including Florida's.
Feb 10 2026
Byron Donalds reaches 81% market price after fundraising surge
Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%
Donald’s campaign reported a $15 million fundraising haul, reinforcing his frontrunner status and pushing his market price to a new high.
Jan 12 2026
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins joins 2026 governor Republican primary
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins officially announced his candidacy for governor, entering a primary field that already included Trump-backed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds.
During a televised GOP forum, Donalds outperformed rivals in a Q&A session, leading to a price jump from 81% to 82% as market participants interpreted his strong showing as a sign of inevitable nomination.
Dec 22 2025
Trump publicly praises Byron Donalds as preferred Florida governor candidate
Byron Donalds jumps to 81%11%
President Trump reiterated his support for Donalds in a televised interview, prompting a further price rise for Donalds to the low 80s and a corresponding decline for other candidates.
Dec 20 2025
Governor Ron DeSantis declines to endorse any primary candidate
DeSantis' neutrality removed a potential boost for other contenders, reinforcing Donalds' lead and contributing to the continued decline of the remaining candidates toward zero.
Dec 16 2025
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Collins' entry added a high‑profile state official to the field, briefly lifting his price from single digits to low‑teens before his support waned as Donalds' endorsement dominated the narrative.
Dec 12 2025
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Republican primary field
Byron Donalds jumps to 70%10%
A statewide poll released in mid‑December gave Donalds a double‑digit lead over his rivals, reinforcing his upward price trajectory to the low 70s.
Dec 9 2025
Azoria CEO James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign
James Fishback drops to 36%7%
James Fishback entered the race, positioning himself as a business outsider; the announcement shifted attention away from other fringe candidates, contributing to a modest dip in his own price and a slight rise for Donalds.
Dec 4 2025
James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign
James Fishback drops to 33%10%
Entrepreneur James Fishback entered the race, drawing limited media attention; his market price fell from 43% to the low 30s as donors and voters focused on higher‑profile candidates.
Dec 4 2025
Jay Collins' gubernatorial bid gains attention as lieutenant governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Following his announcement, Jay Collins' candidacy gained traction but faced challenges competing against Trump-backed Donalds, reflected in fluctuating market prices in early December 2025.
Dec 2 2025
Donald Trump endorses Rep. Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds jumps to 62%14%
Former President Trump publicly backed Byron Donalds, giving the candidate a major boost in national visibility and signaling party establishment support, which drove Donalds' price from the low‑40s to the high‑60s percent range.
Dec 2 2025
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 Florida governor race
Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%
Jay Collins announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a DeSantis ally but without a clear endorsement, which coincided with a sharp drop in his market price from 42% to the low single digits over the following weeks.
Dec 1 2025
Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announced his candidacy for governor, entering the primary race against Trump-backed Byron Donalds, which initially caused a shift in market expectations.
Nov 25 2025
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 governor run against Trump-backed rival
Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a key ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced a significant challenger and caused market shifts among candidates.
Byron Donalds' campaign for Florida governor, backed by Donald Trump, began the analysis window with strong market support, reflecting his status as the frontrunner.
Nov 25 2025
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 governor run against Trump-backed Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds surges to 63%15%
Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a DeSantis ally, officially entered the Republican primary, setting up a contest against Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds. This announcement clarified the primary field and influenced early market positioning, with Donalds gaining from Trump's backing and Collins entering as a credible contender.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Congressman Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Florida governor, reflecting recent polling that shows him capturing 54 percent support among likely GOP voters. President Trump's endorsement has accelerated consolidation of Republican backing, enabling Donalds to draw undecided voters at a faster rate than competitors and widen his margin over James Fishback and Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins. These dynamics have limited traction for lower-polling entrants such as Casey DeSantis, Wilton Simpson, Matt Gaetz, and Jimmy Patronis. The August primary timeline keeps focus on sustained voter consolidation and any late campaign developments that could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Congressman Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Florida governor, reflecting recent polling that shows him capturing 54 percent support among likely GOP voters. President Trump's endorsement has accelerated consolidation of Republican backing, enabling Donalds to draw undecided voters at a faster rate than competitors and widen his margin over James Fishback and Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins. These dynamics have limited traction for lower-polling entrants such as Casey DeSantis, Wilton Simpson, Matt Gaetz, and Jimmy Patronis. The August primary timeline keeps focus on sustained voter consolidation and any late campaign developments that could still influence the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Apr 29 2026
Jay Collins’ market price slides to 5% after missing debate invitation
Collins was not invited to the televised GOP debate, signaling limited party support and pushing his price down to single digits.
Apr 18 2026
James Fishback’s poll numbers dip below 10% after fundraising reports
James Fishback dips to 9%3%
Fishback disclosed a modest $500,000 fundraising total, causing his market price to fall from 12% to 9% as donors shifted to Donalds.
Byron Donalds reached a peak market price of 93%, reflecting strong confidence in his likelihood to win the Republican primary for Florida governor as other candidates' support waned.
Apr 2 2026
Byron Donalds peaks at 93% after winning key endorsement from Florida Senate President
Byron Donalds jumps to 93%5%
The Florida Senate President publicly endorsed Donalds, creating a brief market peak to 93% before a modest pullback, while all other candidates fell to near‑zero.
Apr 1 2026
Gov. Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Governor DeSantis called a special legislative session in April 2026 to redraw congressional districts, intensifying GOP infighting and political maneuvering in Florida. While this affected the broader political landscape, it had limited direct impact on the gubernatorial primary market.
Mar 14 2026
Byron Donalds hits 87% price after DeSantis hints at endorsement
Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%
Governor Ron DeSantis said he would consider endorsing a candidate but did not name anyone; market inferred likely support for Donalds, sending his price to 87% and further marginalizing others.
Feb 25 2026
Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid continues to solidify
Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%
Byron Donalds' campaign maintained its momentum as the primary frontrunner, with his market price rising steadily throughout the period.
Feb 25 2026
Byron Donalds maintains strong lead in Florida GOP gubernatorial primary market
Byron Donalds rises to 81%2%
Byron Donalds' market price remained high following his early announcement and Trump's endorsement, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Republican primary.
Feb 19 2026
National Governors Association meeting disrupted by Trump excluding Democrats
The annual governors' meeting in Washington was upended after President Trump excluded Democratic governors from White House events, highlighting partisan tensions that may influence Republican primaries including Florida's.
Feb 10 2026
Byron Donalds reaches 81% market price after fundraising surge
Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%
Donald’s campaign reported a $15 million fundraising haul, reinforcing his frontrunner status and pushing his market price to a new high.
Jan 12 2026
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins joins 2026 governor Republican primary
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins officially announced his candidacy for governor, entering a primary field that already included Trump-backed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds.
During a televised GOP forum, Donalds outperformed rivals in a Q&A session, leading to a price jump from 81% to 82% as market participants interpreted his strong showing as a sign of inevitable nomination.
Dec 22 2025
Trump publicly praises Byron Donalds as preferred Florida governor candidate
Byron Donalds jumps to 81%11%
President Trump reiterated his support for Donalds in a televised interview, prompting a further price rise for Donalds to the low 80s and a corresponding decline for other candidates.
Dec 20 2025
Governor Ron DeSantis declines to endorse any primary candidate
DeSantis' neutrality removed a potential boost for other contenders, reinforcing Donalds' lead and contributing to the continued decline of the remaining candidates toward zero.
Dec 16 2025
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Collins' entry added a high‑profile state official to the field, briefly lifting his price from single digits to low‑teens before his support waned as Donalds' endorsement dominated the narrative.
Dec 12 2025
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Republican primary field
Byron Donalds jumps to 70%10%
A statewide poll released in mid‑December gave Donalds a double‑digit lead over his rivals, reinforcing his upward price trajectory to the low 70s.
Dec 9 2025
Azoria CEO James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign
James Fishback drops to 36%7%
James Fishback entered the race, positioning himself as a business outsider; the announcement shifted attention away from other fringe candidates, contributing to a modest dip in his own price and a slight rise for Donalds.
Dec 4 2025
James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign
James Fishback drops to 33%10%
Entrepreneur James Fishback entered the race, drawing limited media attention; his market price fell from 43% to the low 30s as donors and voters focused on higher‑profile candidates.
Dec 4 2025
Jay Collins' gubernatorial bid gains attention as lieutenant governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Following his announcement, Jay Collins' candidacy gained traction but faced challenges competing against Trump-backed Donalds, reflected in fluctuating market prices in early December 2025.
Dec 2 2025
Donald Trump endorses Rep. Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds jumps to 62%14%
Former President Trump publicly backed Byron Donalds, giving the candidate a major boost in national visibility and signaling party establishment support, which drove Donalds' price from the low‑40s to the high‑60s percent range.
Dec 2 2025
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 Florida governor race
Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%
Jay Collins announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a DeSantis ally but without a clear endorsement, which coincided with a sharp drop in his market price from 42% to the low single digits over the following weeks.
Dec 1 2025
Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announced his candidacy for governor, entering the primary race against Trump-backed Byron Donalds, which initially caused a shift in market expectations.
Nov 25 2025
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 governor run against Trump-backed rival
Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a key ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced a significant challenger and caused market shifts among candidates.
Byron Donalds' campaign for Florida governor, backed by Donald Trump, began the analysis window with strong market support, reflecting his status as the frontrunner.
Nov 25 2025
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 governor run against Trump-backed Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds surges to 63%15%
Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a DeSantis ally, officially entered the Republican primary, setting up a contest against Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds. This announcement clarified the primary field and influenced early market positioning, with Donalds gaining from Trump's backing and Collins entering as a credible contender.
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Questions fréquentes
« Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Byron Donalds » à 88%, suivi de « James Fishback » à 9%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 88¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 88% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride » a généré $1.5 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 25, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride » est « Byron Donalds » à 88%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 88% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « James Fishback » à 9%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $1.5 million échangés sur « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 88¢ pour « Byron Donalds » sur le marché « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 88% que « Byron Donalds » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 88¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 12¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
Le marché « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride » est prévu pour être résolu autour du Aug 18, 2026. Cela signifie que le trading restera ouvert et les cotes continueront d'évoluer jusqu'à cette date. Le moment exact de la résolution dépend de la disponibilité du résultat officiel, comme décrit dans la section « Règles ».
Le marché « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride » a une communauté active de 51 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine du gouverneur de la Floride ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
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