Recent high-level diplomatic engagement between US and Chinese officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, centers on extending the November 2025 trade truce set to expire in November and advancing reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods via the Board of Trade framework. Preparations for the late-September Trump-Xi summit have produced concrete steps such as China relaxing export controls on critical minerals and lifting retaliatory agricultural tariffs, while US authorities delayed new Section 301 actions on excess capacity. These developments, building on prior Beijing and Busan understandings that capped replacement tariffs near 20 percent, underpin trader consensus on the strong likelihood of a formal agreement or extension by year-end. Scheduled bilateral mechanisms and summit deliverables provide clear near-term catalysts within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour91% chance
$256,641 Vol.
$256,641 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
91% chance
$256,641 Vol.
$256,641 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent high-level diplomatic engagement between US and Chinese officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, centers on extending the November 2025 trade truce set to expire in November and advancing reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods via the Board of Trade framework. Preparations for the late-September Trump-Xi summit have produced concrete steps such as China relaxing export controls on critical minerals and lifting retaliatory agricultural tariffs, while US authorities delayed new Section 301 actions on excess capacity. These developments, building on prior Beijing and Busan understandings that capped replacement tariffs near 20 percent, underpin trader consensus on the strong likelihood of a formal agreement or extension by year-end. Scheduled bilateral mechanisms and summit deliverables provide clear near-term catalysts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$256,641Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent high-level diplomatic engagement between US and Chinese officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, centers on extending the November 2025 trade truce set to expire in November and advancing reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods via the Board of Trade framework. Preparations for the late-September Trump-Xi summit have produced concrete steps such as China relaxing export controls on critical minerals and lifting retaliatory agricultural tariffs, while US authorities delayed new Section 301 actions on excess capacity. These developments, building on prior Beijing and Busan understandings that capped replacement tariffs near 20 percent, underpin trader consensus on the strong likelihood of a formal agreement or extension by year-end. Scheduled bilateral mechanisms and summit deliverables provide clear near-term catalysts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$256,641Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent high-level diplomatic engagement between US and Chinese officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, centers on extending the November 2025 trade truce set to expire in November and advancing reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods via the Board of Trade framework. Preparations for the late-September Trump-Xi summit have produced concrete steps such as China relaxing export controls on critical minerals and lifting retaliatory agricultural tariffs, while US authorities delayed new Section 301 actions on excess capacity. These developments, building on prior Beijing and Busan understandings that capped replacement tariffs near 20 percent, underpin trader consensus on the strong likelihood of a formal agreement or extension by year-end. Scheduled bilateral mechanisms and summit deliverables provide clear near-term catalysts within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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