The U.S. decision on July 1, 2026, not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory six-year joint review has anchored trader expectations against renewal this year. Under Article 34.7, this shifted the pact to annual reviews through 2036 while keeping it in force, absent unanimous written confirmation by the three heads of government. The Trump administration cited the need for revisions on automotive rules of origin, regional content thresholds, and measures to limit third-country (including Chinese) inputs, prompting bilateral U.S.-Mexico talks with scheduled follow-ups in September. Mexico and Canada endorsed extension, but U.S. demands and ongoing negotiations have produced no trilateral agreement. This procedural outcome, combined with the administration’s public statements favoring changes over automatic renewal, explains the strong market consensus against an extension occurring before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
10% chance
$10,747 Vol.
$10,747 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
10% chance
$10,747 Vol.
$10,747 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. decision on July 1, 2026, not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory six-year joint review has anchored trader expectations against renewal this year. Under Article 34.7, this shifted the pact to annual reviews through 2036 while keeping it in force, absent unanimous written confirmation by the three heads of government. The Trump administration cited the need for revisions on automotive rules of origin, regional content thresholds, and measures to limit third-country (including Chinese) inputs, prompting bilateral U.S.-Mexico talks with scheduled follow-ups in September. Mexico and Canada endorsed extension, but U.S. demands and ongoing negotiations have produced no trilateral agreement. This procedural outcome, combined with the administration’s public statements favoring changes over automatic renewal, explains the strong market consensus against an extension occurring before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,747Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. decision on July 1, 2026, not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory six-year joint review has anchored trader expectations against renewal this year. Under Article 34.7, this shifted the pact to annual reviews through 2036 while keeping it in force, absent unanimous written confirmation by the three heads of government. The Trump administration cited the need for revisions on automotive rules of origin, regional content thresholds, and measures to limit third-country (including Chinese) inputs, prompting bilateral U.S.-Mexico talks with scheduled follow-ups in September. Mexico and Canada endorsed extension, but U.S. demands and ongoing negotiations have produced no trilateral agreement. This procedural outcome, combined with the administration’s public statements favoring changes over automatic renewal, explains the strong market consensus against an extension occurring before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,747Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The U.S. decision on July 1, 2026, not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory six-year joint review has anchored trader expectations against renewal this year. Under Article 34.7, this shifted the pact to annual reviews through 2036 while keeping it in force, absent unanimous written confirmation by the three heads of government. The Trump administration cited the need for revisions on automotive rules of origin, regional content thresholds, and measures to limit third-country (including Chinese) inputs, prompting bilateral U.S.-Mexico talks with scheduled follow-ups in September. Mexico and Canada endorsed extension, but U.S. demands and ongoing negotiations have produced no trilateral agreement. This procedural outcome, combined with the administration’s public statements favoring changes over automatic renewal, explains the strong market consensus against an extension occurring before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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