Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner dominates the Virginia Democratic Senate primary market at 99.3% implied probability after emerging as the sole qualified candidate for the August 4 ballot, following his formal filing in March 2026 and challengers like Jason Reynolds failing to submit sufficient petitions. This unopposed status grants Warner the nomination by default, bolstered by his strong fundraising, high approval ratings—including a May poll showing him up 25 points in general election matchups—and incumbency advantages in a state primary with low challenger viability. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty absent a late withdrawal, disqualification, or unprecedented court ruling adding an opponent before early voting begins June 19.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$29,472 Vol.
$29,472 Vol.
Mark Warner
99%
Jason Reynolds
<1%
$29,472 Vol.
$29,472 Vol.
Mark Warner
99%
Jason Reynolds
<1%
If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner dominates the Virginia Democratic Senate primary market at 99.3% implied probability after emerging as the sole qualified candidate for the August 4 ballot, following his formal filing in March 2026 and challengers like Jason Reynolds failing to submit sufficient petitions. This unopposed status grants Warner the nomination by default, bolstered by his strong fundraising, high approval ratings—including a May poll showing him up 25 points in general election matchups—and incumbency advantages in a state primary with low challenger viability. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty absent a late withdrawal, disqualification, or unprecedented court ruling adding an opponent before early voting begins June 19.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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