David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a margin of under 0.5 percentage points, defeating Francesca Hong after late shifts in voter turnout and endorsements from party establishment figures including Gov. Tony Evers. Official results placed Crowley at approximately 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, with the Associated Press calling the race following Hong's concession that eliminated recount risks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-1% Crowley victory because the certified tally aligns with that bracket, though final canvassing and any procedural challenges before certification could still alter the precise recorded margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCrowley <1% 98.3%
Crowley 1–2 % <1%
Crowley 2–3 % <1%
Crowley 3–4 % <1%
$106,437 Vol.
$106,437 Vol.
13 août 2026
Hong 6 %+
<1%
Hong 5–6 %
<1%
Hong 4–5 %
<1%
Hong 3–4 %
<1%
Hong 2–3 %
<1%
Hong 1–2 %
<1%
Hong <1 %
<1%
Crowley <1%
98%
Crowley 1–2 %
<1%
Crowley 2–3 %
<1%
Crowley 3–4 %
<1%
Crowley 4–5 %
<1%
Crowley 5–6 %
<1%
Crowley 6 %+
<1%
Crowley <1% 98.3%
Crowley 1–2 % <1%
Crowley 2–3 % <1%
Crowley 3–4 % <1%
$106,437 Vol.
$106,437 Vol.
13 août 2026
Hong 6 %+
$13,198 Vol.
<1%
Hong 5–6 %
$3,714 Vol.
<1%
Hong 4–5 %
$3,377 Vol.
<1%
Hong 3–4 %
$11,011 Vol.
<1%
Hong 2–3 %
$2,738 Vol.
<1%
Hong 1–2 %
$8,472 Vol.
<1%
Hong <1 %
$4,537 Vol.
<1%
Crowley <1%
$18,976 Vol.
98%
Crowley 1–2 %
$11,795 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 2–3 %
$9,905 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 3–4 %
$9,013 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 4–5 %
$2,286 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 5–6 %
$3,312 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 6 %+
$4,102 Vol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a margin of under 0.5 percentage points, defeating Francesca Hong after late shifts in voter turnout and endorsements from party establishment figures including Gov. Tony Evers. Official results placed Crowley at approximately 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, with the Associated Press calling the race following Hong's concession that eliminated recount risks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-1% Crowley victory because the certified tally aligns with that bracket, though final canvassing and any procedural challenges before certification could still alter the precise recorded margin.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
Volume
$106,437Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a margin of under 0.5 percentage points, defeating Francesca Hong after late shifts in voter turnout and endorsements from party establishment figures including Gov. Tony Evers. Official results placed Crowley at approximately 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, with the Associated Press calling the race following Hong's concession that eliminated recount risks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-1% Crowley victory because the certified tally aligns with that bracket, though final canvassing and any procedural challenges before certification could still alter the precise recorded margin.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$106,437Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a margin of under 0.5 percentage points, defeating Francesca Hong after late shifts in voter turnout and endorsements from party establishment figures including Gov. Tony Evers. Official results placed Crowley at approximately 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, with the Associated Press calling the race following Hong's concession that eliminated recount risks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-1% Crowley victory because the certified tally aligns with that bracket, though final canvassing and any procedural challenges before certification could still alter the precise recorded margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%?
99%
David Crowley remportera-t-il la primaire démocrate pour le poste de gouverneur du Wisconsin ?
99%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti démocrate gagnera-t-il l'élection au poste de gouverneur du Wisconsin en 2026 avec une avance de 0%-3% ?
23%
Oui
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