Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecast models project Busan's maximum temperature at 27°C today under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light southerly winds, and efficient radiative heating—conditions confirmed by morning observations already approaching 25°C. This tight model consensus, with minimal ensemble spread, underpins the 94.5% trader implied probability, reflecting above-climatological May norms (typically 22–25°C highs) amid subsidence suppressing clouds. Realistic challenges include an intensifying sea breeze from Busan's coastal location introducing cooler marine air or unexpected afternoon cloudiness, potentially limiting the peak to 26°C; conversely, prolonged sunshine could nudge it to 28°C. Monitor KMA hourly updates through evening for final resolution.