Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez seeks a third term in New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, where traders assign the Democratic Party a 69% probability of retaining the seat. The district's even Partisan Voter Index and Vasquez's narrow 4.2-point victory in 2024 underpin this positioning, as the race sits in a competitive environment with limited structural advantages for either side. Republican nominee Greg Cunningham, confirmed after the June 2 primary, has secured endorsements including from President Trump and benefits from a Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC committing millions in fall advertising. Vasquez maintains a clear edge in campaign receipts and cash on hand, however, while the broader 2026 midterm environment and historical patterns for open-seat challenges in even districts sustain the current trader consensus ahead of November.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाNM -02 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
NM -02 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$17,522 वॉल्यूम
$17,522 वॉल्यूम
4 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
70%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
22%
$17,522 वॉल्यूम
$17,522 वॉल्यूम
4 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$1,496 वॉल्यूम
70%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$16,027 वॉल्यूम
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez seeks a third term in New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, where traders assign the Democratic Party a 69% probability of retaining the seat. The district's even Partisan Voter Index and Vasquez's narrow 4.2-point victory in 2024 underpin this positioning, as the race sits in a competitive environment with limited structural advantages for either side. Republican nominee Greg Cunningham, confirmed after the June 2 primary, has secured endorsements including from President Trump and benefits from a Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC committing millions in fall advertising. Vasquez maintains a clear edge in campaign receipts and cash on hand, however, while the broader 2026 midterm environment and historical patterns for open-seat challenges in even districts sustain the current trader consensus ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$17,522समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez seeks a third term in New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, where traders assign the Democratic Party a 69% probability of retaining the seat. The district's even Partisan Voter Index and Vasquez's narrow 4.2-point victory in 2024 underpin this positioning, as the race sits in a competitive environment with limited structural advantages for either side. Republican nominee Greg Cunningham, confirmed after the June 2 primary, has secured endorsements including from President Trump and benefits from a Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC committing millions in fall advertising. Vasquez maintains a clear edge in campaign receipts and cash on hand, however, while the broader 2026 midterm environment and historical patterns for open-seat challenges in even districts sustain the current trader consensus ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$17,522समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez seeks a third term in New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, where traders assign the Democratic Party a 69% probability of retaining the seat. The district's even Partisan Voter Index and Vasquez's narrow 4.2-point victory in 2024 underpin this positioning, as the race sits in a competitive environment with limited structural advantages for either side. Republican nominee Greg Cunningham, confirmed after the June 2 primary, has secured endorsements including from President Trump and benefits from a Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC committing millions in fall advertising. Vasquez maintains a clear edge in campaign receipts and cash on hand, however, while the broader 2026 midterm environment and historical patterns for open-seat challenges in even districts sustain the current trader consensus ahead of November.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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