Kīlauea’s summit remains paused after Episode 52 ended in late July, with Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters recording steady inflationary trends of several microradians that signal magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu. Current tilt-based models place the most probable start of Episode 53 fountaining between August 8 and 12, driven by the abrupt post-episode switch from deflation to inflation and persistent vent glow. Variable inflation rates can shift the exact timing within or beyond this window, creating close market odds between the August 11–12 bucket and later dates. Traders are watching daily tilt data and any model revisions from the USGS for signals that could narrow resolution criteria around sustained lava fountain onset.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकिलाउआ का एपिसोड 53 कब शुरू होगा?
किलाउआ का एपिसोड 53 कब शुरू होगा?
11-12 अगस्त 51%
13 अगस्त या बाद 47%
8 अगस्त या उससे पहले 35%
9-10 अगस्त 33%
नया
नया
1 सित, 2026
8 अगस्त या उससे पहले
35%
9-10 अगस्त
33%
11-12 अगस्त
51%
13 अगस्त या बाद
47%
11-12 अगस्त 51%
13 अगस्त या बाद 47%
8 अगस्त या उससे पहले 35%
9-10 अगस्त 33%
नया
नया
1 सित, 2026
8 अगस्त या उससे पहले
$0 वॉल्यूम
35%
9-10 अगस्त
$0 वॉल्यूम
33%
11-12 अगस्त
$20 वॉल्यूम
51%
13 अगस्त या बाद
$0 वॉल्यूम
47%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Kīlauea’s summit remains paused after Episode 52 ended in late July, with Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters recording steady inflationary trends of several microradians that signal magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu. Current tilt-based models place the most probable start of Episode 53 fountaining between August 8 and 12, driven by the abrupt post-episode switch from deflation to inflation and persistent vent glow. Variable inflation rates can shift the exact timing within or beyond this window, creating close market odds between the August 11–12 bucket and later dates. Traders are watching daily tilt data and any model revisions from the USGS for signals that could narrow resolution criteria around sustained lava fountain onset.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$20समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Kīlauea’s summit remains paused after Episode 52 ended in late July, with Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters recording steady inflationary trends of several microradians that signal magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu. Current tilt-based models place the most probable start of Episode 53 fountaining between August 8 and 12, driven by the abrupt post-episode switch from deflation to inflation and persistent vent glow. Variable inflation rates can shift the exact timing within or beyond this window, creating close market odds between the August 11–12 bucket and later dates. Traders are watching daily tilt data and any model revisions from the USGS for signals that could narrow resolution criteria around sustained lava fountain onset.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$20समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kīlauea’s summit remains paused after Episode 52 ended in late July, with Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters recording steady inflationary trends of several microradians that signal magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu. Current tilt-based models place the most probable start of Episode 53 fountaining between August 8 and 12, driven by the abrupt post-episode switch from deflation to inflation and persistent vent glow. Variable inflation rates can shift the exact timing within or beyond this window, creating close market odds between the August 11–12 bucket and later dates. Traders are watching daily tilt data and any model revisions from the USGS for signals that could narrow resolution criteria around sustained lava fountain onset.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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