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Geopolitik·Duta

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

icon for Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Geopolitik·Duta

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

24% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
24% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent diplomatic actions, including Argentina’s April expulsion of Iran’s chargé d’affaires over IRGC disputes and U.S. disclosures of the prior December removal of Iran’s deputy UN envoy on national security grounds, have been followed by a sustained lull in new expulsions. No government has announced additional persona non grata declarations since early April, even as Gulf states maintain earlier March measures amid proxy tensions and missile concerns. Traders assign a 76.5 percent implied probability to “No” by June 30, reflecting the current absence of fresh catalysts that would prompt further expulsions within the resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the lack of verified escalatory statements through mid-May reinforce this market consensus.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,650
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent diplomatic actions, including Argentina’s April expulsion of Iran’s chargé d’affaires over IRGC disputes and U.S. disclosures of the prior December removal of Iran’s deputy UN envoy on national security grounds, have been followed by a sustained lull in new expulsions. No government has announced additional persona non grata declarations since early April, even as Gulf states maintain earlier March measures amid proxy tensions and missile concerns. Traders assign a 76.5 percent implied probability to “No” by June 30, reflecting the current absence of fresh catalysts that would prompt further expulsions within the resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the lack of verified escalatory statements through mid-May reinforce this market consensus.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,650
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 24% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 24¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 24% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Apr 30, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" adalah 24% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 24% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.