China’s consumer price index accelerated to 1.2% year-over-year in April 2026, exceeding consensus forecasts and marking the highest reading in three years amid elevated global energy costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. This recent uptick, alongside the first positive producer price index in over three years at 2.8%, supports trader positioning around the 1.1–1.5% annual average bracket as the modal outcome. Subdued domestic demand and weak consumption continue to anchor core inflation below the government’s 2% target, while analyst forecasts for full-year 2026 CPI cluster between 0.6% and 1.2%. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with incoming monthly releases and any further commodity price volatility serving as near-term catalysts for shifts in the distribution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiChina Annual Inflation 2026
1.1 – 1.5% 50%
1.6 – 2.0% 42.8%
0.6 – 1.0% 23%
2.0-2.4% 8.7%
$40,817 Vol.
$40,817 Vol.
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
3%
0.6 – 1.0%
23%
1.1 – 1.5%
42%
1.6 – 2.0%
24%
2.0-2.4%
9%
2.5%+
7%
1.1 – 1.5% 50%
1.6 – 2.0% 42.8%
0.6 – 1.0% 23%
2.0-2.4% 8.7%
$40,817 Vol.
$40,817 Vol.
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
3%
0.6 – 1.0%
23%
1.1 – 1.5%
42%
1.6 – 2.0%
24%
2.0-2.4%
9%
2.5%+
7%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s consumer price index accelerated to 1.2% year-over-year in April 2026, exceeding consensus forecasts and marking the highest reading in three years amid elevated global energy costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. This recent uptick, alongside the first positive producer price index in over three years at 2.8%, supports trader positioning around the 1.1–1.5% annual average bracket as the modal outcome. Subdued domestic demand and weak consumption continue to anchor core inflation below the government’s 2% target, while analyst forecasts for full-year 2026 CPI cluster between 0.6% and 1.2%. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with incoming monthly releases and any further commodity price volatility serving as near-term catalysts for shifts in the distribution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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