Erdoğan’s current presidential term under Turkey’s 2018 constitutional framework runs through the scheduled May 2028 election, with no snap election called or parliamentary majority supporting early dissolution. Recent speculation about constitutional amendments or early votes centers on extending his eligibility for 2028 rather than accelerating his departure. Unverified health concerns raised in February 2026 have not produced official confirmation or leadership changes, and Erdoğan has remained publicly active through diplomatic engagements and policy statements into May. The ruling AKP-MHP alliance maintains firm parliamentary control, rendering impeachment or no-confidence proceedings unlikely, while opposition challenges focus on the 2028 cycle. These structural and political factors underpin the trader consensus that removal before December 31, 2026, remains improbable.