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icon for EU debt downgrade before 2027?

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

icon for EU debt downgrade before 2027?

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

27% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
27% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations of the European Union's top-tier ratings underscore the 76% market-implied probability against a downgrade before 2027. Fitch, Moody's, Scope, DBRS, and KBRA all maintain AAA with stable outlooks as of mid-2026, while S&P holds AA+ stable following its July update. These reflect the EU's strong institutional framework, diversified own-resources backing, and improved average credit quality in its loan portfolio despite elevated NGEU borrowing. France's 2025 downgrade to A+ and ongoing fiscal pressures in select member states represent key risks, yet no agency currently signals negative outlooks or near-term action. Traders price in continuity ahead of the next review cycles, consistent with the EU's historical resilience and favorable debt profile relative to peers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,443
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations of the European Union's top-tier ratings underscore the 76% market-implied probability against a downgrade before 2027. Fitch, Moody's, Scope, DBRS, and KBRA all maintain AAA with stable outlooks as of mid-2026, while S&P holds AA+ stable following its July update. These reflect the EU's strong institutional framework, diversified own-resources backing, and improved average credit quality in its loan portfolio despite elevated NGEU borrowing. France's 2025 downgrade to A+ and ongoing fiscal pressures in select member states represent key risks, yet no agency currently signals negative outlooks or near-term action. Traders price in continuity ahead of the next review cycles, consistent with the EU's historical resilience and favorable debt profile relative to peers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,443
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"EU debt downgrade before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 27% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 27¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 27% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"EU debt downgrade before 2027?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jan 7, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "EU debt downgrade before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "EU debt downgrade before 2027?" adalah 27% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 27% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "EU debt downgrade before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.