Traders assign a 67.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid moderating inflation and resilient labor market conditions. Recent central bank communications and incoming economic indicators have reinforced expectations that policy will remain on hold rather than shift toward easing or tightening, consistent with market-implied odds. The 25.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures lingering concerns over upside inflation risks, while sub-8% probabilities for cuts underscore limited scope for accommodation before year-end. Proximity to the September FOMC and upcoming releases on prices and employment will likely drive any revisions to these assessments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 68%
25 bps increase 26%
25 bps decrease 7.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$156,607 Vol.
$156,607 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
26%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 26%
25 bps decrease 7.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$156,607 Vol.
$156,607 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$28,210 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$40,668 Vol.
7%
No change
$36,759 Vol.
68%
25 bps increase
$28,036 Vol.
26%
50+ bps increase
$22,934 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 67.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid moderating inflation and resilient labor market conditions. Recent central bank communications and incoming economic indicators have reinforced expectations that policy will remain on hold rather than shift toward easing or tightening, consistent with market-implied odds. The 25.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures lingering concerns over upside inflation risks, while sub-8% probabilities for cuts underscore limited scope for accommodation before year-end. Proximity to the September FOMC and upcoming releases on prices and employment will likely drive any revisions to these assessments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$156,607Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 67.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid moderating inflation and resilient labor market conditions. Recent central bank communications and incoming economic indicators have reinforced expectations that policy will remain on hold rather than shift toward easing or tightening, consistent with market-implied odds. The 25.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures lingering concerns over upside inflation risks, while sub-8% probabilities for cuts underscore limited scope for accommodation before year-end. Proximity to the September FOMC and upcoming releases on prices and employment will likely drive any revisions to these assessments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$156,607Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 67.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid moderating inflation and resilient labor market conditions. Recent central bank communications and incoming economic indicators have reinforced expectations that policy will remain on hold rather than shift toward easing or tightening, consistent with market-implied odds. The 25.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures lingering concerns over upside inflation risks, while sub-8% probabilities for cuts underscore limited scope for accommodation before year-end. Proximity to the September FOMC and upcoming releases on prices and employment will likely drive any revisions to these assessments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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