National Weather Service forecasts and latest ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF models point to a Dallas high near 84–86 °F today, driven by moderate southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and typical May humidity levels that limit strong surface heating. Traders assign the tightest odds to the 86–89 °F range because subtle afternoon insolation gains and minor model disagreements over boundary-layer mixing could push temperatures a degree or two higher before sunset. Historical May climatology for Dallas shows average highs around 85 °F, so current conditions sit close to seasonal norms, leaving the narrow spread between leading bins sensitive to the exact timing of any clearing or wind shifts. Resolution depends on the official daily maximum recorded at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.