Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, combined with real-time observations from Istanbul Airport, have locked in a daily maximum of 22 °C under moderate southeasterly flow and minimal cloud cover, aligning precisely with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This strong model consensus and absence of warm advection or marine cooling effects explain the near-certain trader positioning around that outcome, as historical May maxima rarely deviate more than 1–2 °C without major synoptic shifts. Minor uncertainty persists around localized sea-breeze timing or afternoon convection that could nudge the peak by a degree either way, though upcoming final NOAA-verified readings will resolve the market by day’s end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
22°C 99.8%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
$60,524 Vol.
$60,524 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
100%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
22°C 99.8%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
$60,524 Vol.
$60,524 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$552 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,271 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$13,506 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,184 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5,050 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$4,817 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,687 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,479 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$8,042 Vol.
100%
23°C
$6,609 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$11,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, combined with real-time observations from Istanbul Airport, have locked in a daily maximum of 22 °C under moderate southeasterly flow and minimal cloud cover, aligning precisely with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This strong model consensus and absence of warm advection or marine cooling effects explain the near-certain trader positioning around that outcome, as historical May maxima rarely deviate more than 1–2 °C without major synoptic shifts. Minor uncertainty persists around localized sea-breeze timing or afternoon convection that could nudge the peak by a degree either way, though upcoming final NOAA-verified readings will resolve the market by day’s end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$60,524Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, combined with real-time observations from Istanbul Airport, have locked in a daily maximum of 22 °C under moderate southeasterly flow and minimal cloud cover, aligning precisely with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This strong model consensus and absence of warm advection or marine cooling effects explain the near-certain trader positioning around that outcome, as historical May maxima rarely deviate more than 1–2 °C without major synoptic shifts. Minor uncertainty persists around localized sea-breeze timing or afternoon convection that could nudge the peak by a degree either way, though upcoming final NOAA-verified readings will resolve the market by day’s end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$60,524Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, combined with real-time observations from Istanbul Airport, have locked in a daily maximum of 22 °C under moderate southeasterly flow and minimal cloud cover, aligning precisely with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This strong model consensus and absence of warm advection or marine cooling effects explain the near-certain trader positioning around that outcome, as historical May maxima rarely deviate more than 1–2 °C without major synoptic shifts. Minor uncertainty persists around localized sea-breeze timing or afternoon convection that could nudge the peak by a degree either way, though upcoming final NOAA-verified readings will resolve the market by day’s end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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