Recent short-range forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a daytime maximum in Istanbul near 20–22 °C on 18 May, reflecting a typical late-spring synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This range aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 21 °C for mid-May, derived from decades of Turkish State Meteorological Service observations, while also allowing for modest day-to-day variability driven by sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. With model spread remaining narrow and no significant frontal passages expected, traders have concentrated probability on the 20–22 °C bins. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary Istanbul station, with any late-afternoon convective development capable of trimming the peak by 1–2 °C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
21°C 32%
20°C 27%
22°C 26%
23°C or higher 14.0%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
3%
20°C
27%
21°C
32%
22°C
26%
23°C or higher
14%
21°C 32%
20°C 27%
22°C 26%
23°C or higher 14.0%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$437 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$765 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$886 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$786 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,690 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,061 Vol.
2%
19°C
$724 Vol.
3%
20°C
$228 Vol.
27%
21°C
$253 Vol.
32%
22°C
$294 Vol.
26%
23°C or higher
$682 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a daytime maximum in Istanbul near 20–22 °C on 18 May, reflecting a typical late-spring synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This range aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 21 °C for mid-May, derived from decades of Turkish State Meteorological Service observations, while also allowing for modest day-to-day variability driven by sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. With model spread remaining narrow and no significant frontal passages expected, traders have concentrated probability on the 20–22 °C bins. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary Istanbul station, with any late-afternoon convective development capable of trimming the peak by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$7,805Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a daytime maximum in Istanbul near 20–22 °C on 18 May, reflecting a typical late-spring synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This range aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 21 °C for mid-May, derived from decades of Turkish State Meteorological Service observations, while also allowing for modest day-to-day variability driven by sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. With model spread remaining narrow and no significant frontal passages expected, traders have concentrated probability on the 20–22 °C bins. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary Istanbul station, with any late-afternoon convective development capable of trimming the peak by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,805Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent short-range forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a daytime maximum in Istanbul near 20–22 °C on 18 May, reflecting a typical late-spring synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This range aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 21 °C for mid-May, derived from decades of Turkish State Meteorological Service observations, while also allowing for modest day-to-day variability driven by sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. With model spread remaining narrow and no significant frontal passages expected, traders have concentrated probability on the 20–22 °C bins. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary Istanbul station, with any late-afternoon convective development capable of trimming the peak by 1–2 °C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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