Current forecast models from agencies including the Spanish State Meteorological Agency project a maximum temperature near 23°C in Madrid on May 18, driven by moderate southerly flow under a ridge of high pressure that favors gradual warming without strong advection. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 23°C and 24°C, as historical May climatology shows average highs of 22–24°C and recent model runs indicate limited potential for exceeding 25°C due to lingering cloud cover and modest dew points. Traders appear to weigh the possibility of slight model warming against the narrow window before resolution, with implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing that could add 1–2°C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on May 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 18?
24°C 47%
23°C 28%
25°C 17%
22°C 8%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
8%
23°C
28%
24°C
47%
25°C
17%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 47%
23°C 28%
25°C 17%
22°C 8%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$394 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$791 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,305 Vol.
1%
21°C
$857 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,112 Vol.
8%
23°C
$992 Vol.
28%
24°C
$759 Vol.
47%
25°C
$814 Vol.
17%
26°C
$264 Vol.
5%
27°C
$304 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$517 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from agencies including the Spanish State Meteorological Agency project a maximum temperature near 23°C in Madrid on May 18, driven by moderate southerly flow under a ridge of high pressure that favors gradual warming without strong advection. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 23°C and 24°C, as historical May climatology shows average highs of 22–24°C and recent model runs indicate limited potential for exceeding 25°C due to lingering cloud cover and modest dew points. Traders appear to weigh the possibility of slight model warming against the narrow window before resolution, with implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing that could add 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$7,900Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from agencies including the Spanish State Meteorological Agency project a maximum temperature near 23°C in Madrid on May 18, driven by moderate southerly flow under a ridge of high pressure that favors gradual warming without strong advection. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 23°C and 24°C, as historical May climatology shows average highs of 22–24°C and recent model runs indicate limited potential for exceeding 25°C due to lingering cloud cover and modest dew points. Traders appear to weigh the possibility of slight model warming against the narrow window before resolution, with implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing that could add 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,900Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDCurrent forecast models from agencies including the Spanish State Meteorological Agency project a maximum temperature near 23°C in Madrid on May 18, driven by moderate southerly flow under a ridge of high pressure that favors gradual warming without strong advection. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 23°C and 24°C, as historical May climatology shows average highs of 22–24°C and recent model runs indicate limited potential for exceeding 25°C due to lingering cloud cover and modest dew points. Traders appear to weigh the possibility of slight model warming against the narrow window before resolution, with implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing that could add 1–2°C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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