Ongoing regional military tensions, particularly Israel's strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory risks, have kept the country's airspace under severe restrictions since late February 2026. Civilian commercial flights remain largely suspended, with only limited approved operations for repatriation and essential travel permitted under strict security protocols. European aviation regulators have extended conflict-zone advisories through late May, citing persistent threats from missile activity and regional hostilities, while major carriers weigh gradual returns as early as June. These factors shape trader assessments of when full or renewed closure measures might be imposed or lifted, alongside any diplomatic de-escalation signals or new security incidents that could alter civil aviation access.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$900,936 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
36%
June 30
48%
$900,936 Vol.
May 31
$395,980 Vol.
36%
June 30
$9,708 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional military tensions, particularly Israel's strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory risks, have kept the country's airspace under severe restrictions since late February 2026. Civilian commercial flights remain largely suspended, with only limited approved operations for repatriation and essential travel permitted under strict security protocols. European aviation regulators have extended conflict-zone advisories through late May, citing persistent threats from missile activity and regional hostilities, while major carriers weigh gradual returns as early as June. These factors shape trader assessments of when full or renewed closure measures might be imposed or lifted, alongside any diplomatic de-escalation signals or new security incidents that could alter civil aviation access.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volume
$900,936Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional military tensions, particularly Israel's strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory risks, have kept the country's airspace under severe restrictions since late February 2026. Civilian commercial flights remain largely suspended, with only limited approved operations for repatriation and essential travel permitted under strict security protocols. European aviation regulators have extended conflict-zone advisories through late May, citing persistent threats from missile activity and regional hostilities, while major carriers weigh gradual returns as early as June. These factors shape trader assessments of when full or renewed closure measures might be imposed or lifted, alongside any diplomatic de-escalation signals or new security incidents that could alter civil aviation access.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$900,936Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional military tensions, particularly Israel's strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory risks, have kept the country's airspace under severe restrictions since late February 2026. Civilian commercial flights remain largely suspended, with only limited approved operations for repatriation and essential travel permitted under strict security protocols. European aviation regulators have extended conflict-zone advisories through late May, citing persistent threats from missile activity and regional hostilities, while major carriers weigh gradual returns as early as June. These factors shape trader assessments of when full or renewed closure measures might be imposed or lifted, alongside any diplomatic de-escalation signals or new security incidents that could alter civil aviation access.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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