Khamenei’s official X accounts have maintained a historically low posting rate, averaging well under one post per day in recent periods and remaining inactive on most days, which underpins the overwhelming market consensus for fewer than five posts during the September 11–18 window. Ongoing regional tensions and leadership transitions have not produced a measurable increase in output from the primary accounts, consistent with their established pattern of selective, statement-driven activity rather than frequent updates. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing aligns with this track record, as traders price in continuity absent any verified surge. A sudden escalation requiring multiple official statements or a major policy announcement in the final hours could still shift the outcome, though such developments remain outside the observed baseline.