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icon for Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitik·Korea Utara

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

icon for Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitik·Korea Utara

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

6% peluang
Polymarket

$75,600 Vol.

6% peluang
Polymarket

$75,600 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kim Jong Un has reinforced his authority through active public leadership and institutional consolidation, including his re-election as State Affairs Commission chairman during the March 2026 Supreme People’s Assembly session and his prominent role at the February 2026 Ninth Party Congress. Recent state media reports highlight his focus on nuclear deterrence as irreversible, youth mobilization as a regime pillar, and diplomatic realignments with Russia and China to bolster stability. South Korean intelligence assessments indicate early succession positioning for his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, rather than any leadership vacuum. These developments sustain trader consensus around the low probability of his removal by late 2026, reflecting the regime’s emphasis on dynastic continuity and elite control amid ongoing policy priorities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$75,600
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kim Jong Un has reinforced his authority through active public leadership and institutional consolidation, including his re-election as State Affairs Commission chairman during the March 2026 Supreme People’s Assembly session and his prominent role at the February 2026 Ninth Party Congress. Recent state media reports highlight his focus on nuclear deterrence as irreversible, youth mobilization as a regime pillar, and diplomatic realignments with Russia and China to bolster stability. South Korean intelligence assessments indicate early succession positioning for his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, rather than any leadership vacuum. These developments sustain trader consensus around the low probability of his removal by late 2026, reflecting the regime’s emphasis on dynastic continuity and elite control amid ongoing policy priorities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$75,600
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 6% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 6¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 6% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?" telah menghasilkan $75.6K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?" adalah 6% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 6% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.