**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory project a minimum of 26°C on September 18 under persistent easterly flow from a northeast monsoon and an upper-level anticyclone, producing fine, dry conditions with daytime highs near 31°C.** This baseline supports the market's tight contest between 27°C (44.5%) and 26°C (36.5%), as traders weigh potential for slightly stronger overnight radiational cooling under clear skies versus modest moderation from humidity levels of 55-85% and winds occasionally reaching force 5. Ensemble models show limited spread in the mid-20s range, consistent with typical mid-September climatology, while the low 20% probability on 21°C or below reflects the absence of any cold surge or significant cloud cover that could enhance cooling. Updated HKO briefings and refined overnight model runs ahead of the 18th remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 18?
27°C 44%
26°C 37%
29°C 28%
22°C 27%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
21°C or below
24%
22°C
27%
23°C
25%
24°C
27%
25°C
16%
26°C
37%
27°C
44%
28°C
24%
29°C
28%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 44%
26°C 37%
29°C 28%
22°C 27%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
24%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
25%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
16%
26°C
$3 Vol.
37%
27°C
$166 Vol.
44%
28°C
$0 Vol.
24%
29°C
$0 Vol.
28%
30°C
$80 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$76 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory project a minimum of 26°C on September 18 under persistent easterly flow from a northeast monsoon and an upper-level anticyclone, producing fine, dry conditions with daytime highs near 31°C.** This baseline supports the market's tight contest between 27°C (44.5%) and 26°C (36.5%), as traders weigh potential for slightly stronger overnight radiational cooling under clear skies versus modest moderation from humidity levels of 55-85% and winds occasionally reaching force 5. Ensemble models show limited spread in the mid-20s range, consistent with typical mid-September climatology, while the low 20% probability on 21°C or below reflects the absence of any cold surge or significant cloud cover that could enhance cooling. Updated HKO briefings and refined overnight model runs ahead of the 18th remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$168Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory project a minimum of 26°C on September 18 under persistent easterly flow from a northeast monsoon and an upper-level anticyclone, producing fine, dry conditions with daytime highs near 31°C.** This baseline supports the market's tight contest between 27°C (44.5%) and 26°C (36.5%), as traders weigh potential for slightly stronger overnight radiational cooling under clear skies versus modest moderation from humidity levels of 55-85% and winds occasionally reaching force 5. Ensemble models show limited spread in the mid-20s range, consistent with typical mid-September climatology, while the low 20% probability on 21°C or below reflects the absence of any cold surge or significant cloud cover that could enhance cooling. Updated HKO briefings and refined overnight model runs ahead of the 18th remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$168Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory project a minimum of 26°C on September 18 under persistent easterly flow from a northeast monsoon and an upper-level anticyclone, producing fine, dry conditions with daytime highs near 31°C.** This baseline supports the market's tight contest between 27°C (44.5%) and 26°C (36.5%), as traders weigh potential for slightly stronger overnight radiational cooling under clear skies versus modest moderation from humidity levels of 55-85% and winds occasionally reaching force 5. Ensemble models show limited spread in the mid-20s range, consistent with typical mid-September climatology, while the low 20% probability on 21°C or below reflects the absence of any cold surge or significant cloud cover that could enhance cooling. Updated HKO briefings and refined overnight model runs ahead of the 18th remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan