Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$12,323 Vol.
$12,323 Vol.
May 15, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$12,323 Vol.
$12,323 Vol.
May 15, 2026
14°C or below
$966 Vol.
No
15°C
$887 Vol.
No
16°C
$942 Vol.
No
17°C
$889 Vol.
No
18°C
$990 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,997 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,583 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$2,388 Vol.
No
22°C
$449 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,003 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$230 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$12,323Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,323Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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