Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 20°C overnight low in Shanghai at 88.5% implied probability, driven by the latest hourly forecasts from aggregated global models—including ECMWF and GFS ensembles—projecting minimal cooling to around 19.4–20°C amid light winds under 10 km/h and partial clearing after a mostly cloudy day. Current evening observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution station, show temperatures holding in the low 21°Cs with high humidity near 80%, which curbs radiative cooling typically seen in drier conditions. This positions 19°C at 12.5% as a realistic underdog if unexpected wind shifts enhance cooling, while lower outcomes remain negligible given the warm air mass and absence of cold fronts. Mid-May climatology averages 17–18°C lows, but recent days' mild patterns have elevated expectations; watch final observations through dawn for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
20°C 85%
18°C 8%
19°C 3%
15°C <1%
BARU
BARU
May 15, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
8%
19°C
9%
20°C
85%
20°C 85%
18°C 8%
19°C 3%
15°C <1%
BARU
BARU
May 15, 2026
14°C or below
$951 Vol.
1%
15°C
$879 Vol.
1%
16°C
$812 Vol.
1%
17°C
$434 Vol.
1%
18°C
$498 Vol.
8%
19°C
$442 Vol.
9%
20°C
$475 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 20°C overnight low in Shanghai at 88.5% implied probability, driven by the latest hourly forecasts from aggregated global models—including ECMWF and GFS ensembles—projecting minimal cooling to around 19.4–20°C amid light winds under 10 km/h and partial clearing after a mostly cloudy day. Current evening observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution station, show temperatures holding in the low 21°Cs with high humidity near 80%, which curbs radiative cooling typically seen in drier conditions. This positions 19°C at 12.5% as a realistic underdog if unexpected wind shifts enhance cooling, while lower outcomes remain negligible given the warm air mass and absence of cold fronts. Mid-May climatology averages 17–18°C lows, but recent days' mild patterns have elevated expectations; watch final observations through dawn for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$8,561Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 20°C overnight low in Shanghai at 88.5% implied probability, driven by the latest hourly forecasts from aggregated global models—including ECMWF and GFS ensembles—projecting minimal cooling to around 19.4–20°C amid light winds under 10 km/h and partial clearing after a mostly cloudy day. Current evening observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution station, show temperatures holding in the low 21°Cs with high humidity near 80%, which curbs radiative cooling typically seen in drier conditions. This positions 19°C at 12.5% as a realistic underdog if unexpected wind shifts enhance cooling, while lower outcomes remain negligible given the warm air mass and absence of cold fronts. Mid-May climatology averages 17–18°C lows, but recent days' mild patterns have elevated expectations; watch final observations through dawn for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,561Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 20°C overnight low in Shanghai at 88.5% implied probability, driven by the latest hourly forecasts from aggregated global models—including ECMWF and GFS ensembles—projecting minimal cooling to around 19.4–20°C amid light winds under 10 km/h and partial clearing after a mostly cloudy day. Current evening observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution station, show temperatures holding in the low 21°Cs with high humidity near 80%, which curbs radiative cooling typically seen in drier conditions. This positions 19°C at 12.5% as a realistic underdog if unexpected wind shifts enhance cooling, while lower outcomes remain negligible given the warm air mass and absence of cold fronts. Mid-May climatology averages 17–18°C lows, but recent days' mild patterns have elevated expectations; watch final observations through dawn for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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