Current meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and major ensemble models project Shanghai’s overnight minimum temperature on May 16 to reach exactly 19°C under stable springtime conditions with light southerly flow and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This consensus aligns closely with the mid-May climatological average of 18–20°C recorded at the official Xujiahui station and explains the market’s 99.6% implied probability for the 19°C outcome. Minimal model spread leaves little scope for deviation, though an unexpected clearing of skies or a brief shift in steering patterns could allow readings to dip to 18°C. Hourly surface observations through dawn will provide the final confirmation ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
19°C 99.5%
20°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
$42,802 Vol.
$42,802 Vol.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
100%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.5%
20°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
$42,802 Vol.
$42,802 Vol.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
$3,076 Vol.
1%
15°C
$3,270 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,514 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$3,437 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,021 Vol.
1%
19°C
$1,969 Vol.
100%
20°C
$14,942 Vol.
1%
21°C
$985 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$615 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,568 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$10,405 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and major ensemble models project Shanghai’s overnight minimum temperature on May 16 to reach exactly 19°C under stable springtime conditions with light southerly flow and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This consensus aligns closely with the mid-May climatological average of 18–20°C recorded at the official Xujiahui station and explains the market’s 99.6% implied probability for the 19°C outcome. Minimal model spread leaves little scope for deviation, though an unexpected clearing of skies or a brief shift in steering patterns could allow readings to dip to 18°C. Hourly surface observations through dawn will provide the final confirmation ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$42,802Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and major ensemble models project Shanghai’s overnight minimum temperature on May 16 to reach exactly 19°C under stable springtime conditions with light southerly flow and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This consensus aligns closely with the mid-May climatological average of 18–20°C recorded at the official Xujiahui station and explains the market’s 99.6% implied probability for the 19°C outcome. Minimal model spread leaves little scope for deviation, though an unexpected clearing of skies or a brief shift in steering patterns could allow readings to dip to 18°C. Hourly surface observations through dawn will provide the final confirmation ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$42,802Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDCurrent meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and major ensemble models project Shanghai’s overnight minimum temperature on May 16 to reach exactly 19°C under stable springtime conditions with light southerly flow and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This consensus aligns closely with the mid-May climatological average of 18–20°C recorded at the official Xujiahui station and explains the market’s 99.6% implied probability for the 19°C outcome. Minimal model spread leaves little scope for deviation, though an unexpected clearing of skies or a brief shift in steering patterns could allow readings to dip to 18°C. Hourly surface observations through dawn will provide the final confirmation ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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