**Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a Tokyo overnight minimum near 27°C on August 25, 2026, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on that outcome.** Persistent summer warmth, high humidity, and light southerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling, while mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight allow moderate radiative heat loss without significant cloud cover trapping warmth. Official guidance and ensemble outputs show overnight lows stabilizing in the 26–28°C range, consistent with late-August climatology for Tokyo where typical August minima hover around 23–25°C but elevated dew points and urban heat-island effects push values higher this period. Recent model runs have shown little shift, with no incoming frontal systems or typhoon influences expected to alter the pattern before resolution. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow 26–28°C window as the most probable resolution band because forecast guidance has converged on this narrow range, reflecting limited uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for temperature minima under stable synoptic conditions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
27°C 53%
28°C 24%
26°C 21%
25°C 14%
BARU
BARU
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
5%
25°C
14%
26°C
21%
27°C
53%
28°C
24%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 53%
28°C 24%
26°C 21%
25°C 14%
BARU
BARU
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$1,286 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$218 Vol.
5%
25°C
$606 Vol.
14%
26°C
$328 Vol.
21%
27°C
$300 Vol.
53%
28°C
$284 Vol.
24%
29°C
$5 Vol.
2%
30°C
$32 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$563 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a Tokyo overnight minimum near 27°C on August 25, 2026, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on that outcome.** Persistent summer warmth, high humidity, and light southerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling, while mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight allow moderate radiative heat loss without significant cloud cover trapping warmth.
Official guidance and ensemble outputs show overnight lows stabilizing in the 26–28°C range, consistent with late-August climatology for Tokyo where typical August minima hover around 23–25°C but elevated dew points and urban heat-island effects push values higher this period. Recent model runs have shown little shift, with no incoming frontal systems or typhoon influences expected to alter the pattern before resolution.
Traders appear to be pricing the narrow 26–28°C window as the most probable resolution band because forecast guidance has converged on this narrow range, reflecting limited uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for temperature minima under stable synoptic conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,696Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 25, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a Tokyo overnight minimum near 27°C on August 25, 2026, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on that outcome.** Persistent summer warmth, high humidity, and light southerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling, while mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight allow moderate radiative heat loss without significant cloud cover trapping warmth.
Official guidance and ensemble outputs show overnight lows stabilizing in the 26–28°C range, consistent with late-August climatology for Tokyo where typical August minima hover around 23–25°C but elevated dew points and urban heat-island effects push values higher this period. Recent model runs have shown little shift, with no incoming frontal systems or typhoon influences expected to alter the pattern before resolution.
Traders appear to be pricing the narrow 26–28°C window as the most probable resolution band because forecast guidance has converged on this narrow range, reflecting limited uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for temperature minima under stable synoptic conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,696Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 25, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a Tokyo overnight minimum near 27°C on August 25, 2026, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on that outcome.** Persistent summer warmth, high humidity, and light southerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling, while mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight allow moderate radiative heat loss without significant cloud cover trapping warmth. Official guidance and ensemble outputs show overnight lows stabilizing in the 26–28°C range, consistent with late-August climatology for Tokyo where typical August minima hover around 23–25°C but elevated dew points and urban heat-island effects push values higher this period. Recent model runs have shown little shift, with no incoming frontal systems or typhoon influences expected to alter the pattern before resolution. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow 26–28°C window as the most probable resolution band because forecast guidance has converged on this narrow range, reflecting limited uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for temperature minima under stable synoptic conditions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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