Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have locked in an 18°C minimum for Tokyo on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge driving southerly warm advection that suppresses nocturnal radiative cooling over the Kanto Plain. Successive model runs have kept the projected low within a tight 1°C band, giving traders high confidence in the official Haneda Airport observation that resolves the market. This aligns with mid-May climatology when clear, subsiding air masses typically produce overnight lows near 17–19°C. The only realistic shifts would require an abrupt late-cycle model correction or an unforecasted localized cooling pocket, both of which remain low-probability given current synoptic stability.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
18°C 99.5%
15°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
$15,768 Vol.
$15,768 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 99.5%
15°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
$15,768 Vol.
$15,768 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$1,131 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,499 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$823 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,264 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,467 Vol.
100%
19°C
$1,778 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,776 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$564 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$382 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$688 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$396 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have locked in an 18°C minimum for Tokyo on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge driving southerly warm advection that suppresses nocturnal radiative cooling over the Kanto Plain. Successive model runs have kept the projected low within a tight 1°C band, giving traders high confidence in the official Haneda Airport observation that resolves the market. This aligns with mid-May climatology when clear, subsiding air masses typically produce overnight lows near 17–19°C. The only realistic shifts would require an abrupt late-cycle model correction or an unforecasted localized cooling pocket, both of which remain low-probability given current synoptic stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$15,768Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have locked in an 18°C minimum for Tokyo on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge driving southerly warm advection that suppresses nocturnal radiative cooling over the Kanto Plain. Successive model runs have kept the projected low within a tight 1°C band, giving traders high confidence in the official Haneda Airport observation that resolves the market. This aligns with mid-May climatology when clear, subsiding air masses typically produce overnight lows near 17–19°C. The only realistic shifts would require an abrupt late-cycle model correction or an unforecasted localized cooling pocket, both of which remain low-probability given current synoptic stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,768Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTJapan Meteorological Agency forecasts have locked in an 18°C minimum for Tokyo on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge driving southerly warm advection that suppresses nocturnal radiative cooling over the Kanto Plain. Successive model runs have kept the projected low within a tight 1°C band, giving traders high confidence in the official Haneda Airport observation that resolves the market. This aligns with mid-May climatology when clear, subsiding air masses typically produce overnight lows near 17–19°C. The only realistic shifts would require an abrupt late-cycle model correction or an unforecasted localized cooling pocket, both of which remain low-probability given current synoptic stability.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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