Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center assessments show El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C and subsurface heat content at record levels as of mid-August 2026. Dynamic models, including ECMWF, project continued intensification through winter 2026-27, supporting over 90% odds of a very strong event and roughly 69% chance of historic strength exceeding prior records on the RONI index. This consensus, backed by coupled ocean-atmosphere signals and Southern Oscillation Index values near -2 standard deviations, drives the 91.1% market-implied probability for a Super El Niño. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude and whether short-term atmospheric variability could moderate the event below very strong thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
91% peluang
BARU
BARU
Apr 1, 2027
91% peluang
BARU
BARU
Apr 1, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center assessments show El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C and subsurface heat content at record levels as of mid-August 2026. Dynamic models, including ECMWF, project continued intensification through winter 2026-27, supporting over 90% odds of a very strong event and roughly 69% chance of historic strength exceeding prior records on the RONI index. This consensus, backed by coupled ocean-atmosphere signals and Southern Oscillation Index values near -2 standard deviations, drives the 91.1% market-implied probability for a Super El Niño. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude and whether short-term atmospheric variability could moderate the event below very strong thresholds.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$5,506Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center assessments show El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C and subsurface heat content at record levels as of mid-August 2026. Dynamic models, including ECMWF, project continued intensification through winter 2026-27, supporting over 90% odds of a very strong event and roughly 69% chance of historic strength exceeding prior records on the RONI index. This consensus, backed by coupled ocean-atmosphere signals and Southern Oscillation Index values near -2 standard deviations, drives the 91.1% market-implied probability for a Super El Niño. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude and whether short-term atmospheric variability could moderate the event below very strong thresholds.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$5,506Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center assessments show El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C and subsurface heat content at record levels as of mid-August 2026. Dynamic models, including ECMWF, project continued intensification through winter 2026-27, supporting over 90% odds of a very strong event and roughly 69% chance of historic strength exceeding prior records on the RONI index. This consensus, backed by coupled ocean-atmosphere signals and Southern Oscillation Index values near -2 standard deviations, drives the 91.1% market-implied probability for a Super El Niño. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude and whether short-term atmospheric variability could moderate the event below very strong thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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