Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoContratto Civile 94%
Armenia Forte 5.9%
Alleanza Armenia <1%
Armenia Prospera <1%
$179,993 Vol.
$179,993 Vol.
7 giu 2026
Contratto Civile
94%
Armenia Forte
6%
Alleanza Armenia
<1%
Armenia Prospera
<1%
Alleanza Ho l'Onore
<1%
Congresso Nazionale Armeno
<1%
Armenia Luminosa
<1%
Partito Hanrapetutyun
<1%
Heritage
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
<1%
Contratto Civile 94%
Armenia Forte 5.9%
Alleanza Armenia <1%
Armenia Prospera <1%
$179,993 Vol.
$179,993 Vol.
7 giu 2026
Contratto Civile
$55,234 Vol.
94%
Armenia Forte
$8,965 Vol.
6%
Alleanza Armenia
$56,873 Vol.
<1%
Armenia Prospera
$9,749 Vol.
<1%
Alleanza Ho l'Onore
$7,219 Vol.
<1%
Congresso Nazionale Armeno
$8,828 Vol.
<1%
Armenia Luminosa
$7,741 Vol.
<1%
Partito Hanrapetutyun
$7,367 Vol.
<1%
Heritage
$8,236 Vol.
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
$9,835 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
Volume
$179,993Data di fine
7 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Volume
$179,993Data di fine
7 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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