Recent polling has kept the Bahia gubernatorial contest closely contested ahead of the October 2026 first round, with ACM Neto of União Brasil edging incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT in the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey at 47.8 percent to 38.7 percent. Neto’s stronger showing draws from his established name recognition as former Salvador mayor and opposition gains in the 2024 municipal elections, while Rodrigues benefits from the PT’s organizational infrastructure and long state-level dominance since 2007. Technical ties in prior Quaest data and fluctuating voter intentions underscore the race’s sensitivity to turnout dynamics and national alignments, including Lula’s influence on the Workers’ Party base. Traders’ pricing reflects this volatility, with separation likely to emerge from intensified campaigning, candidate alliances, or shifts in approval ratings over the coming months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 38%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,978 Vol.
$13,978 Vol.
4 ott 2026
ACM Neto
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
38%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 38%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,978 Vol.
$13,978 Vol.
4 ott 2026
ACM Neto
$3,766 Vol.
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,844 Vol.
38%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling has kept the Bahia gubernatorial contest closely contested ahead of the October 2026 first round, with ACM Neto of União Brasil edging incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT in the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey at 47.8 percent to 38.7 percent. Neto’s stronger showing draws from his established name recognition as former Salvador mayor and opposition gains in the 2024 municipal elections, while Rodrigues benefits from the PT’s organizational infrastructure and long state-level dominance since 2007. Technical ties in prior Quaest data and fluctuating voter intentions underscore the race’s sensitivity to turnout dynamics and national alignments, including Lula’s influence on the Workers’ Party base. Traders’ pricing reflects this volatility, with separation likely to emerge from intensified campaigning, candidate alliances, or shifts in approval ratings over the coming months.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$13,978Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling has kept the Bahia gubernatorial contest closely contested ahead of the October 2026 first round, with ACM Neto of União Brasil edging incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT in the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey at 47.8 percent to 38.7 percent. Neto’s stronger showing draws from his established name recognition as former Salvador mayor and opposition gains in the 2024 municipal elections, while Rodrigues benefits from the PT’s organizational infrastructure and long state-level dominance since 2007. Technical ties in prior Quaest data and fluctuating voter intentions underscore the race’s sensitivity to turnout dynamics and national alignments, including Lula’s influence on the Workers’ Party base. Traders’ pricing reflects this volatility, with separation likely to emerge from intensified campaigning, candidate alliances, or shifts in approval ratings over the coming months.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,978Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling has kept the Bahia gubernatorial contest closely contested ahead of the October 2026 first round, with ACM Neto of União Brasil edging incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT in the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey at 47.8 percent to 38.7 percent. Neto’s stronger showing draws from his established name recognition as former Salvador mayor and opposition gains in the 2024 municipal elections, while Rodrigues benefits from the PT’s organizational infrastructure and long state-level dominance since 2007. Technical ties in prior Quaest data and fluctuating voter intentions underscore the race’s sensitivity to turnout dynamics and national alignments, including Lula’s influence on the Workers’ Party base. Traders’ pricing reflects this volatility, with separation likely to emerge from intensified campaigning, candidate alliances, or shifts in approval ratings over the coming months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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