The Bank of Russia’s July 24 decision to cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 14% reflected moderate Q2 economic growth offset by one-off fuel price spikes from refinery disruptions, prompting the central bank to raise its 2026 inflation forecast to 6–7% while keeping underlying measures near the 4–5% range. Traders assign the highest probability to no change at the September 11 meeting because pro-inflationary risks from expansionary fiscal policy, elevated inflation expectations, and supply constraints continue to outweigh weak demand signals, consistent with the slower pace of easing seen since April. A further reduction remains plausible if lending growth continues to decelerate and GDP forecasts stay subdued, yet an increase appears unlikely absent renewed broad-based price pressures. Market pricing aligns with the bank’s emphasis on a gradual path to its 4% target amid persistent external and budgetary uncertainties.