California's 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in its urban Los Angeles demographics and recent redistricting, which has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Incumbent Laura Friedman secured the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Scott Meyers and underscoring limited opposition strength. Race-rating organizations classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A commanding position of this magnitude could shift only in the event of an unforeseen late-cycle development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an exceptional national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-30
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-30
$22,831 Vol.
$22,831 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
95%
Partito Repubblicano
6%
$22,831 Vol.
$22,831 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$12,811 Vol.
95%
Partito Repubblicano
$10,021 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in its urban Los Angeles demographics and recent redistricting, which has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Incumbent Laura Friedman secured the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Scott Meyers and underscoring limited opposition strength. Race-rating organizations classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A commanding position of this magnitude could shift only in the event of an unforeseen late-cycle development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an exceptional national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$22,831Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in its urban Los Angeles demographics and recent redistricting, which has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Incumbent Laura Friedman secured the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Scott Meyers and underscoring limited opposition strength. Race-rating organizations classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A commanding position of this magnitude could shift only in the event of an unforeseen late-cycle development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an exceptional national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,831Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in its urban Los Angeles demographics and recent redistricting, which has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Incumbent Laura Friedman secured the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Scott Meyers and underscoring limited opposition strength. Race-rating organizations classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A commanding position of this magnitude could shift only in the event of an unforeseen late-cycle development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an exceptional national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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