Skip to main content
icon for Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?
Politica·Elezioni Globali

Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?

icon for Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?
Politica·Elezioni Globali

Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?

Noel Thomas 45%

Seán Kyne 32.4%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.5%

Helen Ogbu 6.8%

Polymarket

$43,965 Vol.

Noel Thomas 45%

Seán Kyne 32.4%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.5%

Helen Ogbu 6.8%

Polymarket

$43,965 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$20,198 Vol.

1%

Seán Kyne

$3,253 Vol.

32%

Niall Murphy

$1,792 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,589 Vol.

11%

Orla Nugent

$1,592 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$2,875 Vol.

7%

Denman Rooke

$1,564 Vol.

<1%

Noel Thomas

$4,982 Vol.

45%

Thomas Welby

$1,609 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$2,051 Vol.

5%

Mark Lohan

$2,461 Vol.

5%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas as the frontrunner to win the Galway West Dáil by-election on May 22, reflecting his strong local councillor profile and appeal on housing, cost-of-living, and rural issues amid fragmented first-preference support. A May 7 Ipsos B&A/TG4/Irish Times opinion poll (sample 530) showed Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne edging Thomas 17%-16%, with Labour's Helen Ogbu third at 12% and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich at 9%, but traders anticipate Thomas benefiting more from transfers in PR-STV counting, especially as government parties (Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil) trail at 25% combined versus 39% left bloc. Today's RTÉ Radio 1 debate and final canvassing could tip the closely contested race.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$43,965
Data di fine
31 mar 2027
Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas as the frontrunner to win the Galway West Dáil by-election on May 22, reflecting his strong local councillor profile and appeal on housing, cost-of-living, and rural issues amid fragmented first-preference support. A May 7 Ipsos B&A/TG4/Irish Times opinion poll (sample 530) showed Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne edging Thomas 17%-16%, with Labour's Helen Ogbu third at 12% and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich at 9%, but traders anticipate Thomas benefiting more from transfers in PR-STV counting, especially as government parties (Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil) trail at 25% combined versus 39% left bloc. Today's RTÉ Radio 1 debate and final canvassing could tip the closely contested race.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$43,965
Data di fine
31 mar 2027
Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 11 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Noel Thomas" a 46%, seguito da "Seán Kyne" a 32%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 46¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 46% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?" ha generato $44K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 26, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?", esplora i 11 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?" è "Noel Thomas" a 46%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 46% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Seán Kyne" a 32%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.