Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, reinforced by afternoon observations at the official Otemachi station, shows a stable high-pressure ridge delivering southerly warm advection and strong solar heating that has locked in a maximum of 28°C for Tokyo on May 17. This positions the market-implied odds for 28°C at 99.4% as a clear reflection of converging model runs and real-time surface data rather than speculation. Historical May climatology places typical highs between 22–24°C, so the current setup sits modestly above average yet well short of thresholds for 29°C or higher. Only an unexpected late-day surge in insolation or a shift in steering flow could push readings to 29°C, scenarios the latest soundings and short-range forecasts assign low probability before evening cooling begins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 17 maggio?
La temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 17 maggio?
28°C 99.3%
30°C or higher <1%
29°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
$68,616 Vol.
$68,616 Vol.
17 mag 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
99%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.3%
30°C or higher <1%
29°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
$68,616 Vol.
$68,616 Vol.
17 mag 2026
20°C or below
$2,924 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,793 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$819 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,290 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$8,445 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7,219 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,560 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$9,992 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$7,999 Vol.
99%
29°C
$5,891 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$8,881 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, reinforced by afternoon observations at the official Otemachi station, shows a stable high-pressure ridge delivering southerly warm advection and strong solar heating that has locked in a maximum of 28°C for Tokyo on May 17. This positions the market-implied odds for 28°C at 99.4% as a clear reflection of converging model runs and real-time surface data rather than speculation. Historical May climatology places typical highs between 22–24°C, so the current setup sits modestly above average yet well short of thresholds for 29°C or higher. Only an unexpected late-day surge in insolation or a shift in steering flow could push readings to 29°C, scenarios the latest soundings and short-range forecasts assign low probability before evening cooling begins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$68,616Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, reinforced by afternoon observations at the official Otemachi station, shows a stable high-pressure ridge delivering southerly warm advection and strong solar heating that has locked in a maximum of 28°C for Tokyo on May 17. This positions the market-implied odds for 28°C at 99.4% as a clear reflection of converging model runs and real-time surface data rather than speculation. Historical May climatology places typical highs between 22–24°C, so the current setup sits modestly above average yet well short of thresholds for 29°C or higher. Only an unexpected late-day surge in insolation or a shift in steering flow could push readings to 29°C, scenarios the latest soundings and short-range forecasts assign low probability before evening cooling begins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$68,616Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, reinforced by afternoon observations at the official Otemachi station, shows a stable high-pressure ridge delivering southerly warm advection and strong solar heating that has locked in a maximum of 28°C for Tokyo on May 17. This positions the market-implied odds for 28°C at 99.4% as a clear reflection of converging model runs and real-time surface data rather than speculation. Historical May climatology places typical highs between 22–24°C, so the current setup sits modestly above average yet well short of thresholds for 29°C or higher. Only an unexpected late-day surge in insolation or a shift in steering flow could push readings to 29°C, scenarios the latest soundings and short-range forecasts assign low probability before evening cooling begins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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