Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a daytime high near 28–29°C for Tokyo on May 18 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, positioning 28°C or higher as the leading outcome at 51% implied probability. This exceeds the mid-May climatological normal of 22–24°C at the Otemachi reference station, driven by above-average insolation and a strengthening subtropical ridge that limits cloud cover and enhances afternoon heating. Trader positioning also reflects uncertainty from possible scattered showers, which could cap temperatures near 27°C at 28.5% probability if they arrive earlier than currently modeled. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 18 maggio?
La temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 18 maggio?
28°C or higher 51%
27°C 31%
26°C 16%
25°C 3.1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
3%
26°C
16%
27°C
31%
28°C or higher
51%
28°C or higher 51%
27°C 31%
26°C 16%
25°C 3.1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
18°C or below
$1,472 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,108 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$595 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$479 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$853 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,423 Vol.
3%
25°C
$527 Vol.
3%
26°C
$578 Vol.
16%
27°C
$675 Vol.
31%
28°C or higher
$713 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a daytime high near 28–29°C for Tokyo on May 18 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, positioning 28°C or higher as the leading outcome at 51% implied probability. This exceeds the mid-May climatological normal of 22–24°C at the Otemachi reference station, driven by above-average insolation and a strengthening subtropical ridge that limits cloud cover and enhances afternoon heating. Trader positioning also reflects uncertainty from possible scattered showers, which could cap temperatures near 27°C at 28.5% probability if they arrive earlier than currently modeled. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$9,494Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a daytime high near 28–29°C for Tokyo on May 18 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, positioning 28°C or higher as the leading outcome at 51% implied probability. This exceeds the mid-May climatological normal of 22–24°C at the Otemachi reference station, driven by above-average insolation and a strengthening subtropical ridge that limits cloud cover and enhances afternoon heating. Trader positioning also reflects uncertainty from possible scattered showers, which could cap temperatures near 27°C at 28.5% probability if they arrive earlier than currently modeled. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,494Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a daytime high near 28–29°C for Tokyo on May 18 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, positioning 28°C or higher as the leading outcome at 51% implied probability. This exceeds the mid-May climatological normal of 22–24°C at the Otemachi reference station, driven by above-average insolation and a strengthening subtropical ridge that limits cloud cover and enhances afternoon heating. Trader positioning also reflects uncertainty from possible scattered showers, which could cap temperatures near 27°C at 28.5% probability if they arrive earlier than currently modeled. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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