Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
18°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$43,060 Vol.
$43,060 Vol.
14 mag 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$43,060 Vol.
$43,060 Vol.
14 mag 2026
13°C or below
$1,035 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,610 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,793 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,985 Vol.
No
17°C
$7,162 Vol.
No
18°C
$7,710 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$5,474 Vol.
No
20°C
$6,177 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,051 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,932 Vol.
No
23°C or higher
$4,131 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$43,060Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$43,060Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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