Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today at virtually 100% implied probability, driven by tight alignment across ECMWF, GFS, and Polish IMGW model ensembles forecasting a peak of 17–18°C under moderate to large cloud cover and scattered showers. IMGW's official weekly outlook confirms an 18°C high with przelotne opady deszczu (passing rain), suppressing solar insolation amid a cool morning start around 5–6°C and light winds from passing fronts. This fits May climatology, where average highs hover near 18°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clearing skies boosting shortwave radiation to nudge 19°C, though current trajectories and storm risk make this unlikely; end-of-day observations from Warsaw Chopin station will resolve.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
18°C 100.0%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$42,332 Vol.
$42,332 Vol.
14 mag 2026
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 100.0%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$42,332 Vol.
$42,332 Vol.
14 mag 2026
18°C
$7,416 Vol.
100%
19°C
$5,042 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$6,177 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,051 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,932 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$4,131 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today at virtually 100% implied probability, driven by tight alignment across ECMWF, GFS, and Polish IMGW model ensembles forecasting a peak of 17–18°C under moderate to large cloud cover and scattered showers. IMGW's official weekly outlook confirms an 18°C high with przelotne opady deszczu (passing rain), suppressing solar insolation amid a cool morning start around 5–6°C and light winds from passing fronts. This fits May climatology, where average highs hover near 18°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clearing skies boosting shortwave radiation to nudge 19°C, though current trajectories and storm risk make this unlikely; end-of-day observations from Warsaw Chopin station will resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$42,332Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today at virtually 100% implied probability, driven by tight alignment across ECMWF, GFS, and Polish IMGW model ensembles forecasting a peak of 17–18°C under moderate to large cloud cover and scattered showers. IMGW's official weekly outlook confirms an 18°C high with przelotne opady deszczu (passing rain), suppressing solar insolation amid a cool morning start around 5–6°C and light winds from passing fronts. This fits May climatology, where average highs hover near 18°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clearing skies boosting shortwave radiation to nudge 19°C, though current trajectories and storm risk make this unlikely; end-of-day observations from Warsaw Chopin station will resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$42,332Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today at virtually 100% implied probability, driven by tight alignment across ECMWF, GFS, and Polish IMGW model ensembles forecasting a peak of 17–18°C under moderate to large cloud cover and scattered showers. IMGW's official weekly outlook confirms an 18°C high with przelotne opady deszczu (passing rain), suppressing solar insolation amid a cool morning start around 5–6°C and light winds from passing fronts. This fits May climatology, where average highs hover near 18°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clearing skies boosting shortwave radiation to nudge 19°C, though current trajectories and storm risk make this unlikely; end-of-day observations from Warsaw Chopin station will resolve.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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