Ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated security risks continue to suppress visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with AIS data showing daily counts often in the low single digits during late September. Trader consensus, reflected in the closely matched 40.5% implied probability for 30-34 ships and 36.5% for 25-29 in the week of September 28, hinges on the balance between U.S.-facilitated passages, ship-to-ship transfers bypassing direct chokepoint exposure, and sporadic attacks that deter open traffic. High war-risk insurance premiums and reliance on dark transits further complicate counts, while partial oil flow recovery via pipelines and alternative terminals supports modestly higher aggregates than earlier crisis lows. Key upcoming data releases on verified transits could shift sentiment ahead of resolution.