**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in NYC on August 5, 2026, centers on 70–71°F as the clear favorite at 59.5% implied probability, followed by 68–69°F (26.5%) and 72–73°F (19.0%).** These outcomes reflect aggregated forecasts from models and official sources pointing to overnight lows in the low 70s under a warm, humid late-summer pattern. Persistent high humidity and possible afternoon thunderstorms limit radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared with drier conditions. National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for the period show highs near 83–84°F with overnight lows around 71–73°F, consistent with a broader Climate Prediction Center outlook for above-average August temperatures. No significant cold front or clear, dry air mass is expected to arrive in time to drop readings below the mid-60s. Historical normals for early August in Central Park place typical lows near 68–70°F, providing context that current conditions favor the upper end of that range. Market-implied odds remain sensitive to the latest model runs and real-time observations, as even modest shifts in cloud cover or dew points could adjust the overnight minimum by a degree or two before the calendar day ends.