**Forecast models from MetService and international agencies indicate a minimum temperature in Wellington on September 16, 2026, most likely between 10–12°C under northwesterly flow with a few showers.** This range aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 11°C and 12°C, reflecting tight clustering around the consensus from short-range guidance. Northwesterlies ahead of an approaching front moderate overnight cooling while increasing cloud cover and shower chances, which can limit radiative heat loss and keep the low near or slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 10°C. Model spreads arise from differences in timing of any showers, wind gust strength (often 20+ knots), and boundary-layer moisture, producing the observed probabilities for 10°C or 13°C as plausible edge cases. The non-negligible shares on 7°C or below and 17°C or higher capture tail risks from faster frontal passage or unexpectedly clear, calm conditions, respectively, though current runs favor the narrower 10–12°C window. Updated model cycles and local observations on the 15th–16th will be the key near-term drivers of any further tightening in trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 16 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 16 settembre?
17°C o superiore 54%
7°C o inferiore 51%
8°C 39%
9°C 39%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 set 2026
7°C o inferiore
51%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
22%
11°C
31%
12°C
30%
13°C
23%
14°C
39%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C o superiore
54%
17°C o superiore 54%
7°C o inferiore 51%
8°C 39%
9°C 39%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 set 2026
7°C o inferiore
$0 Vol.
51%
8°C
$32 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
31%
12°C
$0 Vol.
30%
13°C
$125 Vol.
23%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
1%
17°C o superiore
$0 Vol.
54%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService and international agencies indicate a minimum temperature in Wellington on September 16, 2026, most likely between 10–12°C under northwesterly flow with a few showers.**
This range aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 11°C and 12°C, reflecting tight clustering around the consensus from short-range guidance. Northwesterlies ahead of an approaching front moderate overnight cooling while increasing cloud cover and shower chances, which can limit radiative heat loss and keep the low near or slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 10°C.
Model spreads arise from differences in timing of any showers, wind gust strength (often 20+ knots), and boundary-layer moisture, producing the observed probabilities for 10°C or 13°C as plausible edge cases. The non-negligible shares on 7°C or below and 17°C or higher capture tail risks from faster frontal passage or unexpectedly clear, calm conditions, respectively, though current runs favor the narrower 10–12°C window. Updated model cycles and local observations on the 15th–16th will be the key near-term drivers of any further tightening in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$157Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService and international agencies indicate a minimum temperature in Wellington on September 16, 2026, most likely between 10–12°C under northwesterly flow with a few showers.**
This range aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 11°C and 12°C, reflecting tight clustering around the consensus from short-range guidance. Northwesterlies ahead of an approaching front moderate overnight cooling while increasing cloud cover and shower chances, which can limit radiative heat loss and keep the low near or slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 10°C.
Model spreads arise from differences in timing of any showers, wind gust strength (often 20+ knots), and boundary-layer moisture, producing the observed probabilities for 10°C or 13°C as plausible edge cases. The non-negligible shares on 7°C or below and 17°C or higher capture tail risks from faster frontal passage or unexpectedly clear, calm conditions, respectively, though current runs favor the narrower 10–12°C window. Updated model cycles and local observations on the 15th–16th will be the key near-term drivers of any further tightening in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$157Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from MetService and international agencies indicate a minimum temperature in Wellington on September 16, 2026, most likely between 10–12°C under northwesterly flow with a few showers.** This range aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 11°C and 12°C, reflecting tight clustering around the consensus from short-range guidance. Northwesterlies ahead of an approaching front moderate overnight cooling while increasing cloud cover and shower chances, which can limit radiative heat loss and keep the low near or slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 10°C. Model spreads arise from differences in timing of any showers, wind gust strength (often 20+ knots), and boundary-layer moisture, producing the observed probabilities for 10°C or 13°C as plausible edge cases. The non-negligible shares on 7°C or below and 17°C or higher capture tail risks from faster frontal passage or unexpectedly clear, calm conditions, respectively, though current runs favor the narrower 10–12°C window. Updated model cycles and local observations on the 15th–16th will be the key near-term drivers of any further tightening in trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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