Netanyahu remains Israel's prime minister ahead of legislative elections scheduled by late October 2026, with the Knesset advancing dissolution proceedings amid coalition strains over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions and budget issues. Recent polls show Likud as the largest single party, though opposition blocs led by figures such as Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot have narrowed or overtaken his coalition in some surveys, reflecting voter fatigue from prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Netanyahu has signaled intent to seek another term and influence the election timeline, while public statements emphasize security achievements against Iran and Hezbollah. Traders weigh risks of post-election losses or coalition realignments against his history of navigating fragmented Knesset arithmetic; key near-term catalysts include final election date confirmation and any late shifts in northern voter sentiment or U.S.-Iran diplomacy.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTrump labels Netanyahu ‘crazy’ and criticises Israel’s war strategy
July 31 dips to 2%3%
Trump publicly called Netanyahu “crazy” and criticized Israel’s role in the Iran cease‑fire talks, eroding U.S. backing and contributing to the final slide of the “July 31” price to its lowest point (2 %).
Netanyahu wraps up 98‑hearing testimony in corruption trial
June 30 dips to 0%2%
Netanyahu concluded his 98‑hearing testimony in the long‑running corruption trial, a procedural milestone that removed a major immediate political risk and drove the ‘June 30’ probability down to 0 % as market participants saw his position temporarily stabilized.
Ultra-Orthodox leaders pledge to continue protests over military draft arrests
December 31 drops to 48%6%
Ultra-Orthodox politicians vowed to keep protesting against the imprisonment of draft dodgers, reflecting ongoing tensions within Netanyahu's coalition and contributing to political instability that increased speculation about his potential exit.
Likud party legal adviser Avi Halevy resigns amid growing internal pressures
December 31 drops to 54%6%
Avi Halevy, Likud's legal adviser, resigned, reflecting internal party tensions and growing pressures on Netanyahu's regime amid unpopular multi-front wars and political challenges, contributing to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu's longtime adviser Ofer Golan resigns from Prime Minister's Office
December 31 rises to 55%2%
The resignation of a key Netanyahu adviser amid ongoing political turmoil signaled internal instability within Netanyahu's administration, adding to speculation about his political future and influencing market sentiment.
Likud legal adviser Avi Halevy resigns, effective June 19 2026
July 31 drops to 2%14%
Likud’s longtime legal adviser Avi Halevy announced his resignation effective June 19. The departure was interpreted as a sign of internal disarray and further weakened Netanyahu’s standing, causing the market’s ‘July 31’ odds to plunge from 16 % to 2 % within days.
Likud lawyer Avi Halevy resigns from post in letter to Netanyahu
The resignation of Likud’s legal adviser Avi Halevy, announced for 19 June, was interpreted as a sign of internal disarray within Netanyahu’s party, nudging the “December 31” odds up modestly (from 55 % on 15 June to 55 % on 23 June – a plateau after earlier gains).
Netanyahu departs for US to meet President Trump amid regional security concerns
December 31 jumps to 64%11%
Netanyahu's fifth meeting with Trump in the US amid fears of wider Israeli military actions underscored ongoing regional tensions and his political strategy, influencing market perceptions of his tenure stability.
Netanyahu faces intense pressure and resignation calls after US-Iran agreement
December 31 drops to 64%10%
The announcement of an interim US-Iran peace deal that cut out Israel led to severe public and opposition backlash against Netanyahu, with rivals demanding his immediate resignation.
Netanyahu faces mounting pressure after being excluded from US-Iran peace deal
December 31 drops to 54%9%
Following the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, Netanyahu was sidelined, facing domestic and international criticism. This undermined his authority and increased doubts about his political future, reflected in market price volatility.
Netanyahu vows Israeli forces will stay in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
December 31 jumps to 65%6%
Netanyahu's firm stance on military operations amid multi-front conflicts underscored ongoing political challenges and security concerns, affecting market views on his leadership stability.
Netanyahu says there will be no cease‑fire in Lebanon
July 31 drops to 2%5%
Netanyahu declared there would be “no cease‑fire in Lebanon,” attempting to re‑ignite a hard‑line security narrative. The statement failed to revive confidence, and the “July 31” probability fell from 7 % on June 16 to 2 % by June 22.
Trump criticizes Netanyahu over Iran peace deal, straining their alliance
December 31 dips to 50%3%
US President Donald Trump publicly criticized Netanyahu's handling of the Iran peace deal, putting their friendship and Netanyahu's political standing under strain, which contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
U.S. and Iran Sign Memorandum of Understanding to End War
December 31 drops to 6%10%
The remote signing of the Islamabad Memorandum by Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian established a 60-day ceasefire extension, leaving Netanyahu politically isolated and facing a 'nightmare' scenario.
US President Trump comments on Netanyahu's political future amid disputes
December 31 plunges to 63%16%
US President Donald Trump commented on Netanyahu's temperament and political situation, acknowledging disputes over Lebanon and indirectly influencing perceptions of Netanyahu's stability and prospects, contributing to market fluctuations.
Likud party faces internal challenges as key members consider new party formation
December 31 jumps to 64%11%
Discussions among Likud members about forming a new right-wing party signaled fragmentation within Netanyahu's base, increasing doubts about his ability to maintain power post-election.
Netanyahu's cross-examination ends after over a year in corruption trial
June 30 dips to 1%1%
The conclusion of Netanyahu's cross-examination in his corruption trial marked a legal milestone, maintaining political uncertainty but not triggering immediate resignation, reflected in the market's low probability of his stepping down by June 30.
Netanyahu's cross-examination ends after more than a year in corruption trial
July 31 drops to 6%10%
Netanyahu completed his cross-examination in his long-running corruption trial, denouncing the proceedings as a 'police state' trial as the case moves to the redirect phase.
Poll shows over 60% of Israelis want Netanyahu out; Trump questions Netanyahu's political future
December 31 drops to 53%10%
A poll revealed that a majority of Israelis do not want Netanyahu to run in the upcoming election, while US President Donald Trump publicly questioned Netanyahu's desire to continue in politics, increasing political pressure and impacting market expectations of his resignation.
US ceasefire agreement with Iran presents political nightmare for Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 64%14%
On June 15, 2026, the US announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran, undermining Netanyahu's military campaigns and political standing. This development severely damaged his core political narrative of security strength, causing a sharp increase in market odds for his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu asserts military successes and vows continued security efforts
December 31 surges to 79%26%
Netanyahu held a press conference asserting Israel's military achievements and commitment to security in Lebanon and against Iran, aiming to bolster his leadership image ahead of elections, which influenced market sentiment about his political resilience.
US announces ceasefire agreement with Iran, undermining Netanyahu's military campaign
December 31 surges to 79%33%
The US-Iran interim peace deal severely damaged Netanyahu's core political narrative of security strength, triggering public and opposition backlash and causing a sharp increase in market odds for his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Trump and Netanyahu clash over Iran war ceasefire deal, straining political support
December 31 surges to 79%26%
US President Donald Trump publicly criticized Netanyahu and pushed for a ceasefire with Iran, which Netanyahu opposed. The resulting political tension and perceived capitulation damaged Netanyahu's standing, causing a sharp but volatile increase in market odds for his resignation by December 31.
Netanyahu defends Israel's campaign against Iran amid US-Iran ceasefire deal
December 31 jumps to 64%14%
Facing domestic backlash over the Iran war's apparent end, Netanyahu asserted Israel's success and his ongoing mission to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, maintaining his political stance and affecting market sentiment.
Interim US-Iran peace deal sparks anger among Israelis, lashing out at Netanyahu
December 31 drops to 49%12%
The US-Iran peace deal in mid-June 2026 excluded Netanyahu, causing public and political backlash against him, which further decreased market confidence in his staying power, reflected in a sharp drop in resignation odds.
Likud legal adviser Avi Halevy resigns amid government resignations
December 31 drops to 54%9%
Avi Halevy resigned as Likud's legal adviser on June 19, 2026, reflecting growing internal dissent and government instability, which contributed to declining market confidence in Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu acknowledges U.S.–Iran cease‑fire deal, says Israel will not be bound
July 31 drops to 2%14%
Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference announcing a preliminary U.S.–Iran war‑ceasefire agreement. The deal undermined his “security‑first” narrative, leading traders to slash the ‘July 31’ and ‘June 30’ probabilities to near‑zero within a week.
US and Iran sign ceasefire memorandum; Netanyahu claims war goals achieved
December 31 drops to 54%6%
A US-Iran ceasefire agreement was signed, including provisions affecting Lebanon, which Netanyahu publicly distanced himself from while claiming Israel achieved its war goals. The deal undermined Netanyahu's military campaigns and political standing, contributing to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu denies plans to step down amid political challenges
December 31 dips to 62%4%
Despite mounting political and legal pressures, Netanyahu publicly ruled out resignation, asserting his determination to continue leading. This statement temporarily stabilized market expectations for his tenure, reflected in price fluctuations.
Netanyahu defends war outcomes and rejects US-Iran deal details in press conference
December 31 jumps to 74%13%
Netanyahu held an assertive press conference defending his campaign against Iran and Lebanon, while facing mounting domestic backlash and a rejection of his request to shorten his corruption trial hearings.
US announces ceasefire agreement with Iran, undermining Netanyahu's position
July 31 drops to 4%12%
On June 15, the US announced a ceasefire deal with Iran, surprising Netanyahu and undermining his military campaigns and political standing. The announcement led to public and opposition backlash, increasing pressure on Netanyahu and causing a drop in short-term resignation odds for July 31 and June 30 outcomes.
Israelis express anger at Netanyahu following U.S.-Iran interim peace deal
December 31 jumps to 64%13%
The announcement of a U.S.-Iran interim peace deal led to widespread public and political backlash against Netanyahu in Israel, with critics blaming him for strategic failures in the Iran conflict and calling for his resignation ahead of upcoming elections.
Netanyahu departs for fifth meeting with Trump amid regional military concerns
December 31 jumps to 64%14%
Netanyahu's scheduled talks with US President Trump in Florida amid fears of wider Israeli military offensives highlighted ongoing geopolitical tensions and his political maneuvering ahead of elections, influencing market views on his tenure.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump amid concerns over Israeli regional military actions
December 31 surges to 64%16%
Netanyahu's fifth meeting with Trump in the US focused on regional security and military strategy, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts and political maneuvering ahead of elections, influencing market sentiment on his tenure.
Interim US-Iran peace deal sparks Israeli backlash and calls for Netanyahu's resignation
June 30 dips to 1%1%
The announcement of a US-Iran interim peace deal led to public and opposition backlash against Netanyahu, increasing political pressure and causing a drop in short-term resignation odds in the market.
US-Iran interim peace deal sparks Israeli public anger and political backlash
December 31 surges to 66%16%
The announcement of a US-Iran interim peace deal led to widespread anger across Israeli political spectrum directed at Netanyahu, undermining his standing ahead of elections and increasing speculation about his political future.
Slovenia lifts entry ban on Netanyahu amid diplomatic tensions
December 31 rises to 54%3%
Slovenia's new government lifted its entry ban on Netanyahu, a move reflecting ongoing diplomatic challenges faced by his government due to controversial policies and international criticism, which contributed to the perception of Netanyahu's weakening position.
Knesset Rejects Dissolution Motion, Handing Netanyahu Temporary Lifeline
June 30 dips to 1%1%
Netanyahu's ruling coalition managed to survive a critical political challenge when the Knesset rejected a motion to dissolve itself in a 61-53 vote. This bought Netanyahu valuable time to stabilize his fragile coalition and temporarily delayed the immediate threat of snap elections.
Likud lawyer Avi Halevy resigns amid growing internal party resignations
December 31 jumps to 64%11%
The resignation of a key Likud legal adviser amid a wave of resignations within Netanyahu's party highlighted internal dissent and weakened Netanyahu's political position ahead of elections.
Key Netanyahu aide Jonatan Urich indicted on national security charges
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Jonatan Urich, a close media adviser to Netanyahu, was indicted for delivering classified information in the BibiLeaks scandal, intensifying legal pressure on Netanyahu's inner circle.
Netanyahu aide indicted on charges of jeopardizing national security
December 31 rises to 54%1%
A key aide to Netanyahu was indicted on charges related to leaking classified documents, raising questions about the integrity of Netanyahu's inner circle and increasing political pressure on the prime minister.
Netanyahu aide indicted for endangering Israeli security over document leak
December 31 dips to 48%3%
A key aide to Netanyahu was indicted on charges of jeopardizing national security, adding to the legal and political challenges facing Netanyahu and contributing to market doubts about his political survival.
US and Israel begin joint air campaign against Iran
December 31 rises to 55%1%
The United States launched new strikes on Iran, with Netanyahu publicly supporting the joint operation. The escalation renewed doubts about his ability to manage a war‑time coalition, coinciding with the final modest rise of the December‑31 market to 55 % Yes.
Netanyahu confirms he will run in upcoming elections despite doubts
June 30 dips to 2%1%
Despite public doubts voiced by US President Trump and ongoing corruption charges, Netanyahu announced his intention to seek re-election. This declaration reduced market expectations of his imminent resignation or removal, contributing to the sharp decline in short-term exit probabilities.
Netanyahu Confirms He Will Run in Israel's 2026 Elections
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Netanyahu's Likud party officially announced that he will seek another term in the upcoming legislative elections, quashing rumors of his immediate retirement.
Trump says Netanyahu may quit politics amid poll showing 61% want him out
December 31 surges to 77%21%
Trump suggested Netanyahu might quit politics, while polls indicated strong public desire for his resignation, intensifying speculation about his departure.
Stormy phone call between Trump and Netanyahu over military actions
December 31 drops to 51%9%
In early June 2026, reports emerged of a stormy phone call between US President Donald Trump and Netanyahu concerning military actions, highlighting tensions and Netanyahu's precarious political position ahead of elections, which contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in short-term resignation odds.
Public friction between Netanyahu and Trump exposes political vulnerabilities
Reports of a rift between Netanyahu and Trump over Middle East policy raised questions about Netanyahu's ability to maintain US support, further weakening his political position and contributing to market declines in short-term resignation odds.
Tensions rise between Trump and Netanyahu over military actions
December 31 dips to 51%1%
In early June, reports emerged of a stormy phone call between US President Donald Trump and Netanyahu over military actions, highlighting tensions and Netanyahu's precarious political position ahead of elections, contributing to market uncertainty.
US-Iran ceasefire agreement leaves Netanyahu politically trapped
December 31 jumps to 64%11%
A US-Iran ceasefire agreement negotiated independently by the Trump administration left Netanyahu facing intense domestic criticism and political isolation.
US strikes Iran after Trump blames Tehran for downing helicopter
On June 9, 2026, US strikes on Iran following accusations by President Trump increased political tensions. Netanyahu faced criticism for his handling of military campaigns, contributing to market volatility and uncertainty about his leadership, affecting short-term resignation odds.
Renewed fighting between Israel and Iran deepens Netanyahu's political peril
Escalation in hostilities with Iran intensified political challenges for Netanyahu ahead of elections, with declining public support and strained US relations contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Protests grow and opposition threatens resignation without exit strategy
December 31 drops to 50%7%
By early June, protests in Tel Aviv intensified and opposition leader Benny Gantz threatened to resign from the war cabinet if Netanyahu did not present an exit strategy for Gaza, increasing political pressure but Netanyahu remained focused on campaigning.
Renewed fighting with Iran deepens Netanyahu's political peril before elections
December 31 drops to 53%10%
Renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran in early June 2026 intensified political challenges for Netanyahu, with declining public support and criticism over his handling of the conflicts, contributing to market volatility and lower odds of his continuation.
Renewed fighting between Israel and Iran deepens Netanyahu's political peril
June 30 dips to 0%2%
The escalation in conflict with Iran increased political pressure on Netanyahu ahead of elections, with analysts noting his delicate position between U.S. interests and domestic expectations. This contributed to market volatility and declining odds for short-term resignation.
US President Trump says Netanyahu 'won't have any choice' but to accept US-Iran deal
Trump publicly stated that Netanyahu would have to accept a US-led Iran deal, highlighting tensions between the leaders and adding uncertainty to Netanyahu's political future amid ongoing military operations.
US President Trump says Netanyahu 'won't have any choice' but to accept US-Iran deal
June 30 dips to 2%2%
Trump publicly pressured Netanyahu to accept a US-Iran agreement, highlighting tensions and limiting Netanyahu's autonomy, which contributed to political vulnerability and declining market confidence in his continuation past mid-2026.
Draft‑bill dispute could prompt snap election and ouster of Netanyahu
June 30 plunges to 5%17%
An analysis piece noted that disputes over a military‑draft bill could trigger a snap election, raising expectations that Netanyahu might be forced out before the year‑end. The “June 30” market share plummeted from 22 % on March 8 to 5 % by early May, reflecting reduced confidence in his staying power.
Netanyahu casts vote for state comptroller, asserts intent to run in elections
December 31 rises to 55%4%
On June 3, 2026, Netanyahu publicly cast a vote for the state comptroller and Likud asserted he will run in the upcoming elections, countering speculation about his resignation and stabilizing market prices for the December 31 outcome.
US President Trump criticizes Netanyahu, complicating peace talks with Iran
December 31 drops to 50%7%
In early June 2026, US President Donald Trump publicly called Netanyahu 'crazy' and criticized Israel's role in peace talks, undermining Netanyahu's international support and further weakening his political standing.
US President Trump questions Netanyahu's political future amid criticism
December 31 drops to 56%10%
Trump publicly questioned Netanyahu's desire to continue in politics and criticized his handling of military campaigns, undermining Netanyahu's international support and weakening his political standing, contributing to market uncertainty.
Trump suggests Netanyahu may quit politics; Likud denies and confirms election run
June 30 dips to 1%2%
On June 3, 2026, former US President Donald Trump suggested Netanyahu might quit politics, but Likud responded firmly that Netanyahu will run in the upcoming election, which tempered short-term resignation expectations and contributed to the June 30 outcome falling to 1%.
Trump claims Netanyahu may quit politics as poll shows majority of Israelis want him out
December 31 dips to 50%1%
US President Donald Trump questioned whether Netanyahu wants to continue his political career, while a new poll showed 61% of Israelis do not want him to run in the upcoming election, driving up the probability of his exit.
Knesset Elects Netanyahu's Personal Lawyer as State Comptroller Amid Turmoil
December 31 drops to 52%8%
In a highly controversial 61-57 vote, lawmakers elected Netanyahu's personal lawyer, Michael Rabello, as state comptroller. This victory helped stabilize Netanyahu's immediate coalition control, contributing to a drop in the December 31 exit odds back to 52% by June 6.
Netanyahu praises US blockade of Iranian ports amid ongoing Iran conflict
In a CNBC interview, Netanyahu praised US military actions against Iran, emphasizing ongoing conflict and his leadership role, which maintained his political standing but did not significantly alter resignation odds.
Netanyahu discusses Iran conflict and political challenges in CNBC interview
December 31 dips to 50%4%
In a CNBC interview, Netanyahu reaffirmed his stance on Iran and addressed political pressures, but ongoing regional conflicts and internal dissent continued to weigh on his political stability, reflected in market fluctuations.
Netanyahu gives CNBC interview amid ongoing Iran conflict and election pressures
December 31 dips to 51%2%
Netanyahu spoke publicly about the Iran conflict and his political situation, emphasizing his intent to continue leadership and highlighting his alliance with the US. This public stance amid regional tensions and upcoming elections contributed to market reassessment of his likelihood to remain in office through the year-end.
Naftali Bennett criticizes Netanyahu's handling of Iran conflict at conference
December 31 jumps to 64%7%
On June 3, 2026, former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly criticized Netanyahu's management of the recent fighting with Iran, framing it as a normalization of periodic attacks. This criticism contributed to a sharp increase in the December 31 outcome price from 57% to 64%, reflecting increased market speculation about Netanyahu's potential resignation.
Tensions rise as Netanyahu faces criticism over Iran war ceasefire and US relations
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Netanyahu faced domestic criticism after a US-Iran interim peace deal was announced without his input, raising doubts about his leadership and increasing political pressure ahead of elections.
Trump suggests Netanyahu may quit politics; Likud asserts he will run
December 31 dips to 54%4%
US President Donald Trump speculated about Netanyahu's possible political exit, but Likud confirmed Netanyahu's intention to run in the upcoming election, temporarily stabilizing market expectations about his continuation.
Netanyahu's government elects his personal lawyer as state comptroller amid controversy
December 31 rises to 64%3%
On June 3, 2026, Netanyahu's coalition forced through the election of his personal lawyer Michael Rabello as state comptroller amid allegations of vote manipulation, intensifying political controversy but indicating Netanyahu's ongoing control and no immediate resignation.
US President Trump suggests Netanyahu may quit politics
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
On June 3, 2026, US President Donald Trump publicly speculated that Netanyahu might quit politics, fueling market uncertainty and contributing to a sharp drop in the June 30 outcome price.
Netanyahu gives exclusive interview discussing Iran war and US-Israel relations
In an exclusive interview, Netanyahu discussed ongoing military campaigns and diplomatic relations, signaling his intent to remain in office despite challenges, which helped stabilize market odds for his continuation as Prime Minister.
Netanyahu announces successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
December 31 jumps to 62%12%
Netanyahu publicly disclosed he had early-stage prostate cancer but completed successful treatment, reassuring markets about his health and ability to continue in office, temporarily lowering resignation odds.
US President Trump calls Netanyahu 'crazy' but supports Israel in peace talks
December 31 dips to 57%4%
Trump's controversial remarks and support for Israel complicated peace talks but underscored international backing for Netanyahu, influencing market perceptions of his political resilience.
Trump says Netanyahu may quit politics amid poll showing majority opposition
June 30 dips to 0%3%
Trump publicly questioned whether Netanyahu wanted to stay in politics, echoing poll data that 61 % of Israelis wanted him out. The comment coincided with a sharp dip in the “June 30” odds (from 3 % on 2 June to 0 % on 23 June) as the market interpreted the US pressure as further evidence of a brewing exit.
US President Trump questions Netanyahu's political future amid polls showing majority want him out
June 30 drops to 6%10%
Trump publicly questioned whether Netanyahu wants to continue his political career, coinciding with polls showing over 60% of Israelis do not want him to run in the upcoming election, increasing market skepticism about Netanyahu's short-term resignation.
Netanyahu gives exclusive CNBC interview on Iran war and US-Israel relations
December 31 drops to 50%5%
In a high-profile interview, Netanyahu discussed the ongoing Iran conflict and US relations, reinforcing his leadership role and intent to continue in office, which influenced market confidence in his political survival.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump amid regional military concerns
December 31 drops to 52%12%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago focused on regional security and military strategy, reinforcing his political position but also highlighting ongoing tensions and election pressures, reflected in market price volatility.
Opposition leaders Lapid and Bennett reach coalition deal to potentially remove Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 48%4%
The opposition announced a coalition agreement to form a new government, aiming to end Netanyahu's long tenure, increasing market expectations for his removal by the end of 2026.
US President Trump Criticizes Netanyahu, Halts Israeli Strikes on Beirut
December 31 drops to 52%6%
Trump publicly criticized Netanyahu, calling him 'crazy' and accusing Israel of complicating peace talks with Iran. Trump also halted Israeli strikes on Beirut, causing political controversy but indicating Netanyahu's continued control, which contributed to a decline in resignation odds.
Netanyahu criticized for abandoning planned attack on Hezbollah under US pressure
December 31 drops to 52%9%
Reports on June 2 indicated Netanyahu faced criticism for reportedly abandoning a planned military attack on Hezbollah due to US pressure, undermining his security credentials and weakening his political standing ahead of elections.
Netanyahu faces criticism after U.S. halts Israeli strikes on Beirut
December 31 dips to 60%1%
Netanyahu was criticized domestically for military decisions coordinated with the U.S., highlighting political vulnerabilities and opposition pressure ahead of elections, which likely influenced market sentiment on his political future.
Tensions rise between Netanyahu and Trump amid regional conflicts and political pressure
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
Reports emerged of a stormy phone call between Trump and Netanyahu, reflecting frustration over Netanyahu's handling of regional conflicts and political survival concerns. This added to speculation about Netanyahu's political future and potential resignation by year-end.
US President Trump vetoes further fighting in Lebanon, intensifying criticism of Netanyahu
December 31 drops to 51%13%
Trump's veto of further military action in Lebanon led to fierce accusations against Netanyahu for mishandling the campaign, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his leadership, contributing to market volatility.
Netanyahu faces political backlash over Lebanon military campaign amid US pressure
December 31 dips to 51%4%
Netanyahu was accused of mishandling Israel's military campaign in Lebanon after US President Trump vetoed further fighting, exposing political vulnerabilities. This event contributed to market doubts about Netanyahu's ability to maintain power through the year.
Trump and Netanyahu clash over military strategy amid election pressures
December 31 rises to 52%2%
In early June 2026, reports of a stormy phone call between Trump and Netanyahu over military actions highlighted tensions and Netanyahu's precarious political position ahead of elections, contributing to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu publicly rules out resignation despite mounting pressures
December 31 dips to 51%2%
In early June 2026, Netanyahu dismissed calls to resign amid ongoing legal and political challenges, maintaining his position as Prime Minister. This stance contributed to the December 31 outcome price stabilizing around 51%, while June 30 outcome plummeted to 2%.
Roman Gofman appointed new Mossad chief in ceremony with Netanyahu
June 30 dips to 2%2%
A ceremony appointing a new Mossad chief was covered by local media, reflecting routine governance amid the crisis. The event had negligible impact on market odds, but its timing coincides with the final dip of the June 30 outcome to 2 % on June 9.
US President Trump halts Israeli strikes on Beirut, Netanyahu faces criticism
December 31 rises to 55%1%
Trump's announcement to halt Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Beirut led to domestic criticism of Netanyahu, highlighting political pressure ahead of elections and increasing speculation about his political future.
Netanyahu faces political crisis after US vetoes further Lebanon military action
December 31 drops to 51%6%
Netanyahu was accused of mishandling Israel's military campaign in Lebanon after US President Trump vetoed further fighting, undermining Netanyahu's security credentials and weakening his political standing ahead of elections.
Netanyahu faces criticism for abandoning planned attack on Hezbollah due to US pressure
June 30 dips to 1%1%
Netanyahu was criticized by political opponents for reportedly abandoning a planned military attack on Hezbollah after pressure from US President Donald Trump. This undermined his security credentials and weakened his political standing ahead of elections, contributing to a decline in short-term resignation odds for June 30 and July 31 outcomes.
Trump calls Netanyahu 'crazy' in heated phone call over Lebanon strikes
June 30 drops to 3%13%
US President Donald Trump publicly confirmed he called Netanyahu 'crazy' during a tense phone call criticizing Israel's military actions in Lebanon, reflecting a rift between the allies and increasing political uncertainty for Netanyahu ahead of elections.
Opposition leader Lapid calls Netanyahu's government one of the worst in Israeli history
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
On the day of the first reading of the bill to dissolve the Knesset, opposition leader Yair Lapid publicly criticized Netanyahu's government, reinforcing political pressure and the likelihood of a government change by year-end.
Trump calls Netanyahu 'crazy' in heated phone call over Israel's Lebanon strikes
December 31 drops to 51%5%
U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Netanyahu during a tense phone call about Israeli military actions in Lebanon, warning that such escalation could jeopardize U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. This public clash highlighted growing tensions between Netanyahu and his key international ally, undermining his political position.
Trump Clashes with Netanyahu in Heated Phone Call Over Lebanon Strikes
December 31 jumps to 61%8%
U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly called Netanyahu 'crazy' and warned that his military actions in Lebanon were isolating Israel globally, exposing a deep rift between the two allies.
Netanyahu fires Defense Minister Gallant amid military campaign disagreements
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Netanyahu dismissed Defense Minister Yoav Gallant citing a 'widening gulf of trust' during active military operations, sparking political backlash and raising concerns about government stability, impacting market confidence.
Polls show Netanyahu’s coalition struggling to form government ahead of elections
December 31 jumps to 59%5%
Polls in late May and early June indicated Netanyahu’s coalition would have difficulty forming a government if elections were held immediately, reflecting declining political support and increasing market odds of his exit by year-end.
Netanyahu under fire for Lebanon military campaign failures
December 31 dips to 52%4%
Netanyahu faced fierce criticism from political opponents after appearing to abandon a threat to strike Hezbollah in Beirut under pressure from US President Trump, raising questions about his leadership and election prospects.
Netanyahu aims to expand Israeli control over Gaza to 70% territory
December 31 rises to 53%4%
Netanyahu instructed the military to expand control over Gaza beyond ceasefire lines, intensifying conflict and political tensions, which influenced market perceptions of his leadership stability.
Netanyahu announces Israel will expand control over 70% of Gaza
Netanyahu's statement about increasing Israeli control over Gaza amid ongoing military operations underscored his focus on security and regional strategy, but did not directly impact his political survival odds.
Netanyahu announces expansion of Israeli control in Gaza to 70%
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Netanyahu declared an expansion of Israeli military control in Gaza beyond the ceasefire agreement, escalating tensions and drawing criticism from Hamas and international observers.
Netanyahu orders Israeli forces to seize 70% of Gaza
May 31 plunges to 0%26%
Netanyahu directed Israeli forces to expand control over 70% of Gaza, an aggressive military move that intensified political pressure and coincided with the May 31 market outcome dropping to near zero, reflecting diminished short-term resignation expectations.
Netanyahu directs Israeli military to take over 70% of Gaza territory
December 31 jumps to 59%8%
Netanyahu announced a military directive to expand control over Gaza, reflecting ongoing conflict and political challenges that could impact his political standing and market perceptions of his tenure.
Netanyahu orders army to seize 70% of Gaza, violating ceasefire deal
December 31 jumps to 58%8%
Netanyahu announced plans to expand control over Gaza to 70% in a bid to shore up right-wing support ahead of the upcoming elections, causing a temporary spike in his year-end exit odds.
Israeli military strikes southern Beirut under Netanyahu's leadership
December 31 rises to 61%4%
Military actions in Lebanon demonstrated Netanyahu's active role in security matters, reinforcing his position as prime minister despite political pressures, which supported market confidence in his continuation.
Netanyahu directs Israeli forces to expand control of Gaza to 70 percent
December 31 rises to 50%2%
Netanyahu publicly ordered the Israeli military to increase control over Gaza to 70 percent, exceeding the terms of the October 2025 ceasefire. This escalation intensified the conflict and political pressures, influencing market perceptions of his leadership stability.
Israeli military strikes Beirut suburb before Lebanon-Israel talks
December 31 rises to 57%3%
On May 28, 2026, Israeli military strikes in Beirut heightened regional tensions amid ongoing talks with Lebanon. Netanyahu's handling of security issues remained a focal point, with market prices for December 31 outcome peaking at 57%.
Likud members discuss forming new party amid internal dissent
December 31 drops to 51%8%
Some Likud members, including Gilad Erdan, considered creating a new right-wing party not led by Netanyahu, signaling fractures within his political base and raising doubts about his ability to maintain power.
Israel's military escalates strikes in Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Netanyahu's government intensified military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, projecting strength and control. This bolstered perceptions of Netanyahu's political resilience, causing a temporary drop in resignation odds for mid-2026.
Opposition parties Bennett and Lapid unite to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections
December 31 jumps to 65%10%
On May 27, 2026, former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a merger of their parties into a single list named 'Together' to form a strong opposition bloc aiming to unseat Netanyahu. This political development increased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Israel's military orders evacuation in southern Lebanon amid conflict with Hezbollah
June 30 rises to 7%4%
Amid ongoing military operations against Hezbollah, Israel's military instructed residents in southern Lebanon to evacuate, reflecting heightened regional tensions. Netanyahu's leadership during this period maintained his political strength, limiting short-term resignation expectations.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger to form opposition bloc 'Together'
June 30 dips to 3%3%
Former prime ministers Bennett and Lapid merged their parties into a single list named 'Together' to form a strong opposition bloc aiming to unseat Netanyahu. This consolidation increased political pressure on Netanyahu and lowered the market's short-term resignation odds.
Netanyahu hospitalized for routine dental treatment amid health scrutiny
On May 26, Netanyahu was admitted to a Jerusalem hospital for dental treatment, sparking media speculation about his health. Despite public concern, his office maintained the visit was routine, and it did not significantly affect market expectations for his resignation.
Netanyahu applauds Israeli Eurovision runner-up Noam Bettan amid protests
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Netanyahu publicly supported Israeli Eurovision contestant Noam Bettan despite protests, reflecting his active public role and political resilience amid ongoing challenges.
Netanyahu Faces Intense Backlash Over Ceasefire Deal and Political Crisis
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
Following a ceasefire deal with Iran brokered by Pakistan, Netanyahu faced severe domestic political backlash and international isolation. Opposition leaders criticized his handling of security and peace processes, increasing market uncertainty and driving a peak in resignation odds.
Mounting protests and political pressure on Netanyahu escalate
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
By late May 2026, protests in Tel Aviv grew in scale and opposition figures like Benny Gantz threatened to resign from the war cabinet if Netanyahu did not present an exit strategy, increasing market speculation about a possible resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu's coalition partner Itamar Ben-Gvir resigns in protest
December 31 jumps to 60%10%
Itamar Ben-Gvir and his party resigned from Netanyahu's coalition after Netanyahu pushed through a controversial deal, leaving Netanyahu with a razor-thin majority and increasing political instability, which affected market confidence in his tenure.
Netanyahu's political standing weakens amid coalition turmoil and opposition gains
December 31 rises to 64%3%
By late May, Netanyahu's political position weakened due to coalition fractures and rising opposition strength, reflected in market price peaks and volatility, indicating increased chances of his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu government paralyzed as ultra-Orthodox crisis dissolves coalition majority
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Following an open revolt by ultra-Orthodox allies, Netanyahu was forced to withdraw all coalition bills, losing his governing majority and pushing the government toward collapse and early elections, increasing resignation expectations.
Netanyahu's Likud party faces internal challenges and opposition gains
December 31 jumps to 65%12%
Reports of Likud members planning a new right-wing party and opposition alliances forming increased pressure on Netanyahu's leadership ahead of elections, causing market volatility and a temporary price peak followed by declines.
Likud members Erdan and Edelstein reach initial agreements on new party
December 31 jumps to 57%8%
Reports emerged that prominent Likud members Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein reached initial agreements to form a new right-wing party, threatening Netanyahu's coalition stability.
Israeli legislators take first steps to dissolve parliament, signaling government end
December 31 dips to 60%1%
Following the dissolution vote, Israeli lawmakers moved towards calling fresh elections, with opposition figures hailing it as the beginning of the end for Netanyahu's government, further increasing market expectations of his removal.
Israel's parliament votes to dissolve itself, paving way for early elections
May 31 dips to 0%1%
The Knesset vote to dissolve itself confirmed the early election path, significantly reducing the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down and causing the May 31 outcome price to reach 0%.
Israeli Knesset advances bill to dissolve parliament amid coalition crisis
June 30 jumps to 60%10%
The Knesset voted overwhelmingly to advance a bill to dissolve itself, signaling political instability and increasing the likelihood of early elections. This development heightened market expectations of Netanyahu's potential ouster by the end of 2026.
Israel's parliament votes to dissolve itself amid coalition collapse
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself following the withdrawal of support from ultra-Orthodox factions, signaling political crisis and increasing the probability of Netanyahu's resignation before the end of 2026.
Knesset votes to dissolve itself in preliminary vote amid coalition pressure from ultra-Orthodox parties
May 31 dips to 0%3%
This decisive event triggered the market's final price drop to 0% on May 31, confirming early elections were imminent.
ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes
December 31 surges to 66%15%
The ICC issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war‑crimes in Gaza. The unprecedented legal pressure raised speculation that Netanyahu might be forced to resign, pushing the market’s “December 31” probability up from 51 % on 20 May to 66 % on 16 June – its highest level in the window.
Israeli lawmakers advance bill to dissolve parliament
June 30 drops to 0%5%
A unanimous 110‑0 vote in the Knesset to advance a bill dissolving parliament after ultra‑Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support over a stalled military‑draft exemption. The move signalled an imminent snap election, sharply lowering confidence in Netanyahu’s survival past mid‑June; the “June 30” odds fell from 5 % on 20 May to 0 % by 23 June.
Knesset passes preliminary dissolution vote 110‑0
July 31 drops to 2%14%
The same dissolution vote also caused the “July 31” market to plunge from 16 % on 15 June to 2 % by 23 June, as investors priced in a high chance that an early election would occur well before the July deadline, making a resignation by that date unlikely.
Knesset votes overwhelmingly to dissolve itself, advancing snap election plans
December 31 jumps to 63%11%
The Israeli parliament voted 110-0 in favor of a bill to dissolve itself, potentially bringing forward elections and increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu losing power before the end of 2026.
Knesset Votes to Dissolve Itself in Preliminary Vote
December 31 jumps to 60%9%
The Israeli parliament voted in favor of a preliminary motion to dissolve itself, triggered by disputes with ultra-Orthodox coalition parties. This set off a sharp rise in the December 31 exit odds, which peaked at 66% shortly after.
Israeli Knesset approves preliminary bill for its dissolution
December 31 rises to 54%1%
The Knesset voted overwhelmingly in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself after ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support over the stalled military draft exemptions, paving the way for early elections.
Ultra‑Orthodox parties pull support from Netanyahu over Haredi conscription dispute
June 30 drops to 5%6%
Ultra‑Orthodox parties withdrew from the coalition over stalled Haredi‑conscription legislation, depriving Netanyahu of his Knesset majority. The fracture triggered a steep decline in the market’s June 30 Yes odds, which fell below 10 % in the days that followed.
Israel’s parliament votes to dissolve itself, paving way for early elections
June 30 drops to 0%5%
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself, opening the way to early elections. The vote eliminated the prospect of a forced resignation and pushed the “June 30” odds down to zero, as the market saw a near‑certain continuation of Netanyahu’s tenure until the election.
Knesset votes unanimously to dissolve parliament, opening path to early elections
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
The Knesset plenum voted 110‑0 to advance a dissolution bill, triggering the possibility of early elections. The move was seen as a major blow to Netanyahu’s coalition and lifted odds that he would step down by December 31, raising the ‘December 31’ probability from the low‑40s to 55 %.
Israeli parliament votes unanimously to dissolve itself amid coalition crisis
December 31 surges to 60%18%
The Knesset voted 110-0 to dissolve itself following the withdrawal of ultra-Orthodox factions from Netanyahu's coalition, signaling a political crisis and increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu losing power before the end of 2026. This event sharply increased market odds for Netanyahu stepping down by December 31.
Israeli lawmakers advance bill to dissolve parliament, signaling early elections
December 31 jumps to 64%12%
The Knesset's vote to advance a bill to dissolve itself amid coalition strains increased political instability and market expectations of Netanyahu's potential ouster by the end of 2026.
Knesset passes dissolution bill, scheduling early elections for October 27
December 31 surges to 64%19%
Israel's Knesset passed a preliminary dissolution bill with unanimous support, advancing legislative elections to no later than October 27 amid coalition fractures over ultra-Orthodox conscription exemptions, which increased market confidence that Netanyahu might resign or be removed by December 31, 2026.
Knesset advances bill to dissolve parliament after ultra‑Orthodox split
December 31 drops to 53%11%
The Knesset voted 110‑0 to advance a bill to dissolve parliament after ultra‑Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support. The vote signalled an imminent snap election and sharply cut the market’s “December 31” odds from a mid‑60 % range down to the low‑50 % range.
Israeli Knesset votes to dissolve parliament, paving way for early elections
June 30 plunges to 5%15%
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself after ultra‑Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support over a draft‑exemption bill, setting a likely early election. The market’s Yes probability for the June‑30 outcome crashed from 20 % to 5 % within two days.
Israel's Knesset advances dissolution bill with unanimous preliminary support
December 31 surges to 64%15%
The Knesset passed a dissolution bill, advancing legislative elections to no later than late October. This effectively secured Netanyahu's position until the next election, causing the market price to settle at 64% on May 25.
Israel's Knesset votes unanimously to dissolve itself amid coalition collapse
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
The Knesset voted 110-0 to dissolve itself following the withdrawal of ultra-Orthodox factions from Netanyahu's coalition over stalled military draft legislation. This unprecedented political crisis sharply increased market confidence that Netanyahu might resign or be removed by December 31, 2026, causing a significant rise in the December 31 outcome price.
Israeli parliament votes to dissolve itself, paving way for early elections
June 30 drops to 6%5%
The Knesset voted to dissolve parliament after an ultra‑Orthodox faction withdrew support over the draft‑exemption law. The move signalled an imminent snap election, driving the June‑30 contract down to 6 % and pulling the December‑31 contract below 40 %.
Israeli lawmakers vote to dissolve parliament ahead of early elections
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself, with the vote prompted by an ultra-Orthodox faction announcing they no longer saw Netanyahu as a partner and would seek early elections. This decisive action significantly increased market expectations of Netanyahu's removal.
Knesset votes 110-0 to advance dissolution bill as Netanyahu’s coalition collapses
December 31 surges to 66%15%
The unanimous vote to dissolve the Knesset confirmed the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition, sharply increasing market confidence that he would step down by year-end.
Israel's parliament votes unanimously to dissolve itself, advancing early elections
December 31 jumps to 61%10%
The Knesset approved a preliminary bill to dissolve itself with a 110-0 vote, confirming the path to early elections and increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu's removal before the end of 2026.
Israeli lawmakers vote to dissolve Knesset amid ultra‑Orthodox draft crisis
May 31 plunges to 0%27%
The Knesset voted in a preliminary reading to dissolve parliament after ultra‑Orthodox factions withdrew support over the draft‑exemption bill. The move signalled a likely early election, pushing the market to believe Netanyahu would be out by the end‑of‑May deadline.
Knesset votes 110‑0 to advance dissolution legislation
June 30 drops to 0%5%
All 110 Knesset members voted to advance a preliminary dissolution bill after Haredi parties withdrew support over a stalled draft‑exemption law. The vote dramatically lowered the “June 30” odds to near‑zero, reflecting market belief that early elections were imminent.
Knesset advances dissolution bill signaling early elections
December 31 rises to 52%3%
The Knesset voted 110-0 to advance the dissolution bill, reflecting coalition breakdown and increasing political uncertainty, which raised market expectations of Netanyahu's exit by year-end.
Israeli Parliament Votes to Dissolve Itself, Threatening Netanyahu's Coalition
December 31 rises to 54%3%
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself after an ultra-Orthodox faction withdrew support over military draft exemptions, initiating a process toward snap elections and raising the odds of Netanyahu's ouster.
Israeli Knesset votes 110-0 to advance dissolution bill for early elections
December 31 surges to 66%15%
The Knesset's unanimous vote to dissolve parliament marked a political crisis amid coalition fractures, especially over ultra-Orthodox military draft exemptions. This increased market expectations that Netanyahu might lose power before the end of 2026, sharply raising the December 31 outcome price.
Israel's Knesset votes to dissolve itself, setting early elections
June 30 drops to 1%5%
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew over conscription exemptions, triggering dissolution proceedings and pushing Netanyahu toward early elections.
Israeli Knesset advances bill to dissolve parliament amid coalition collapse
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
In May 2026, the Knesset voted to dissolve itself after ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support over stalled military draft exemptions, leaving Netanyahu's right-wing bloc with a razor-thin or nonexistent majority, increasing speculation about his political future and boosting December 31 resignation odds.
Israeli lawmakers vote to advance bill to dissolve parliament
December 31 rises to 55%4%
Knesset members voted to advance a bill to dissolve parliament and pave the way for early elections, escalating the political crisis for Netanyahu's fractious right-wing coalition.
Knesset passes 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution
December 31 jumps to 60%6%
The Knesset passed the 2026 state budget, temporarily averting an automatic dissolution. The resolution lowered the December‑31 market’s risk perception, but a later coalition split kept the probability high; the price rose from 54 % on 23 May to 60 % on 3 Jun.
Israel's Knesset Passes Preliminary Bill to Dissolve Itself and Bring Elections Forward
December 31 surges to 66%15%
Amidst a deadlock over the Haredi conscription bill, the Knesset voted 110-0 in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself, signaling a high probability of early elections that could end Netanyahu's term.
Knesset advances legislation to dissolve parliament amid coalition collapse
December 31 jumps to 59%6%
The Knesset voted 110-0 to advance dissolution legislation following coalition fractures, signaling a political crisis and increasing market expectations of Netanyahu losing power before the end of 2026.
Israeli Knesset votes overwhelmingly to advance dissolution bill, paving way for early elections
December 31 jumps to 60%10%
The Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a bill to dissolve itself, signaling a political crisis and increasing market expectations that Netanyahu might lose power before the end of 2026. The vote reflected a rare convergence between coalition and opposition lawmakers amid the ultra-Orthodox draft dispute.
ICC prosecutor seeks arrest warrants for Netanyahu over war crimes allegations
December 31 rises to 53%3%
The International Criminal Court announced intentions to seek arrest warrants for Netanyahu and others for alleged war crimes, intensifying legal and political pressure on Netanyahu and raising speculation about his potential resignation or removal.
Israeli Knesset votes to dissolve parliament, paving way for early elections
December 31 jumps to 64%7%
On May 20, the Knesset voted unanimously to dissolve itself following ultra-Orthodox parties withdrawing support over stalled military draft legislation. This political crisis sharply increased the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down by year-end, reflected in a significant rise in the December 31 resignation probability.
Israeli lawmakers advance bill to dissolve parliament
May 31 plunges to 0%26%
The Knesset voted to advance a bill to dissolve parliament after the ultra‑Orthodox UTJ withdrew support over conscription exemptions. The vote sent the May‑31 probability to 0 % and drove the June‑30 odds down to a record low of 2 % on May 23.
Israeli Knesset votes unanimously to dissolve itself, triggering early elections
December 31 jumps to 53%12%
The Knesset voted 110-0 to dissolve itself following the withdrawal of ultra-Orthodox factions from Netanyahu's coalition, signaling a political crisis and sharply increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down before the end of 2026, reflected in a significant rise in market probabilities.
Knesset Votes 110-0 in Preliminary Reading to Dissolve Parliament
December 31 rises to 53%2%
In a rare display of unity, the Israeli Knesset voted 110-0 to advance a preliminary bill to dissolve itself. This move, triggered by the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition over the Haredi draft crisis, set the stage for early elections and increased the probability of Netanyahu's exit by year-end.
ICC prosecutor seeks fresh arrest warrants for Israeli leaders
June 30 drops to 0%5%
The ICC prosecutor announced new arrest‑warrant requests targeting Israeli leaders. The announcement coincided with the market’s slide toward zero for the “June 30” option, which fell from 5 % on 4 May to 0 % by 25 June.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
December 31 rises to 53%2%
The recovery of the last Israeli hostage's remains was hailed by Netanyahu as a significant achievement, reinforcing his leadership during the ongoing conflict and ceasefire process. This event contributed to a slight increase in market confidence regarding his continuation in office.
Netanyahu's corruption trial testimony postponed due to security and diplomatic reasons
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Netanyahu's testimony in his ongoing corruption trial was postponed again citing security and diplomatic commitments, allowing him to focus on political activities. This postponement maintained his political viability and delayed potential resignation triggers related to legal outcomes.
Netanyahu compels court to cancel his corruption trial testimony citing security reasons
Netanyahu's lawyers successfully postponed his trial testimony due to his busy schedule with security meetings, demonstrating his continued political activity and delaying legal pressures that might force resignation.
Netanyahu cancels corruption trial testimony citing security reasons amid war
December 31 rises to 56%4%
Netanyahu's attorneys canceled his scheduled testimony in his corruption trial due to ongoing diplomatic and security meetings related to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, highlighting his focus on security issues over legal challenges.
Opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid merge parties to challenge Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 53%2%
On April 26, former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced the merger of their parties into a new alliance called 'Together,' aiming to defeat Netanyahu in the upcoming elections. This political consolidation increased market expectations for Netanyahu's potential removal by year-end.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza amid ceasefire talks
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Netanyahu’s government conducted a major operation to recover the last hostage in Gaza, a key step before advancing the ceasefire’s second phase. This demonstrated Netanyahu’s continued control and leadership, contributing to the market’s sharp decline in short-term resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu announces successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
December 31 dips to 56%1%
Netanyahu disclosed that a malignant tumour was removed and he is in excellent health, alleviating concerns about his ability to continue in office and supporting market stability.
Economist poll shows Likud tied with opposition bloc
December 31 rises to 51%1%
A poll published by The Economist on 17 May showed Netanyahu’s Likud trailing narrowly behind a joint opposition bloc, increasing speculation about his electoral viability and marginally raising the ‘December 31’ odds.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
December 31 rises to 51%1%
The recovery of the last hostage's remains in Gaza was a significant event for Netanyahu's government, reinforcing his leadership during the ongoing conflict and peace process, which likely contributed to the stabilization of the December 31 outcome price around 51%.
Attorney General Gali Baharav‑Miara confronts Netanyahu over legal case
December 31 dips to 52%2%
Attorney General Baharav‑Miara publicly challenged Netanyahu’s legal standing, intensifying speculation about a forced resignation. The market’s Yes probability for the December‑31 outcome slipped from 54 % to 52 % that week.
Israel's governing coalition fractures over military conscription bill
December 31 jumps to 61%7%
In mid-May 2026, ultra-Orthodox parties withdrew support from Netanyahu's coalition over stalled legislation on Haredi conscription, leading to Knesset dissolution and scheduled elections. This political crisis sharply increased the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down, reflected in market dynamics.
Netanyahu urges calm after Israeli police forcibly enter UNRWA compound
December 31 dips to 50%2%
Netanyahu's government faced international criticism after Israeli police forcibly entered a UN Palestinian aid agency compound, underscoring ongoing tensions but no indication of resignation, maintaining market skepticism.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 52%1%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel’s regional position and demonstrating his ongoing governance role. This positive economic development likely bolstered market confidence in his tenure through the end of 2026.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the US-led executive committee overseeing Gaza's ceasefire next steps, reflecting internal political tensions but maintaining Netanyahu's leadership role, which likely stabilized the market's year-end resignation probability.
Ultra-Orthodox parties quit Netanyahu's coalition over stalled conscription bill
December 31 drops to 43%9%
In mid-May 2026, ultra-Orthodox parties withdrew support from Netanyahu's government, fracturing the coalition and prompting the Knesset to advance a dissolution bill, sharply increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down or early elections.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, a U.S.-led initiative to oversee Gaza ceasefire and broader regional peace efforts, signaled his continued political engagement and leadership, supporting the market's slight increase in December 31 resignation probability.
Opposition coalition forms to unseat Netanyahu ahead of elections
December 31 rises to 54%1%
In May 2026, opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint list to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections, increasing political pressure on him. This contributed to a rise in the December 31 outcome price to 54%.
Ruling coalition proposes early elections after ultra‑Orthodox parties withdraw support
May 31 plunges to 0%26%
All six governing factions signed a draft to dissolve the Knesset over Haredi conscription disputes. The “May 31” line collapsed from 26 % to 3 % within two days, and the “June 30” line fell to 4 %, reflecting heightened expectations of a resignation before summer.
Opposition coalition led by Bennett and Lapid launches bid to unseat Netanyahu
June 30 drops to 12%7%
The opposition coalition announced a joint effort to replace Netanyahu in the upcoming election, intensifying political pressure and contributing to declining market confidence in Netanyahu's continued premiership by mid-2026.
Opposition coalition launches bid to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 59%2%
An opposition coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced plans to replace Netanyahu, promising a new governing alternative. This increased political pressure on Netanyahu and influenced market expectations of his tenure ending.
Opposition coalition files bill to dissolve Knesset
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Opposition parties filed a separate bill to dissolve the Knesset, adding pressure on the coalition and causing the May‑31 price to fall from 26 % to 3 % within a week.
Israeli ruling coalition proposes early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger at Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 51%2%
The coalition's proposal to dissolve parliament due to failure to pass ultra-Orthodox military draft exemption legislation signaled a major political crisis, increasing market expectations of Netanyahu's exit.
Opposition coalition formed to unseat Netanyahu in upcoming election
December 31 jumps to 50%9%
On May 13, 2026, former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties to form a coalition aimed at ousting Netanyahu, intensifying political competition and uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu tries to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox boy killed by bus
Netanyahu's call for calm after a tragic incident during ultra-Orthodox protests highlighted ongoing domestic unrest but no indication of resignation, supporting market prices stabilizing around 51% for December 31 outcome.
Opposition coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid unites to challenge Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 63%13%
Two of Netanyahu's biggest rivals merged their parties to form a united opposition front aiming to oust Netanyahu in the upcoming election, increasing political pressure and market speculation about his potential exit.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss Iran talks and regional security
Netanyahu held a meeting with U.S. President Trump focusing on Iran negotiations and regional security issues. This high-profile engagement reinforced expectations that Netanyahu would remain in office through the year-end, reflected in the December 31 outcome price stabilizing around 51%.
Israeli coalition submits bill to dissolve parliament, paving way for early elections
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
Netanyahu's ruling coalition submitted legislation to dissolve parliament, signaling political instability and the likelihood of early elections. This move increased market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future and potential exit before the end of 2026.
Ruling coalition proposes early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger at Netanyahu
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Leaders of all six ruling groups in the Knesset signed draft legislation for early elections due to ultra-Orthodox parties' anger over Netanyahu's failure to grant military service exemptions, further destabilizing his government and increasing resignation odds.
Opposition coalition led by Bennett and Lapid forms to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 48%8%
Two of Netanyahu's main political rivals, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, announced a merger of their parties to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election. This political development increased uncertainty about Netanyahu's hold on power and influenced market sentiment.
Netanyahu's coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset amid ultra-Orthodox coalition crisis
December 31 jumps to 53%11%
Facing mounting pressure from ultra-Orthodox parties and coalition instability, Netanyahu's government submitted a bill to dissolve parliament, signaling a potential early election and increasing market speculation about his tenure.
Israeli opposition coalition launches bid to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 53%12%
The formation of a united opposition coalition by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in May 2026 intensified political pressure on Netanyahu, sharply increasing market expectations of his potential removal before year-end.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting ongoing internal security challenges. This event underscored the political pressures Netanyahu faces but did not lead to resignation, consistent with market price stability.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran and Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%2%
The high‑profile diplomatic meeting shifted focus to U.S. negotiations, suggesting Netanyahu was seeking external support rather than domestic stability, which further lowered confidence in a May 31 resignation.
Netanyahu's coalition proposes early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Netanyahu's ruling coalition submitted a bill to dissolve parliament to pave the way for early elections as pressure from ultra-Orthodox parties mounted, signaling imminent government collapse and increasing market expectations of Netanyahu's departure.
Israel’s ruling coalition proposes early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger at Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Netanyahu's coalition submitted a proposal to dissolve parliament due to ultra-Orthodox parties' anger over military draft exemptions, signaling imminent elections and increasing market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down before year-end.
Israeli governing coalition fractures as parliament moves to dissolve
December 31 jumps to 50%9%
In May 2026, Netanyahu's coalition fractured when Knesset lawmakers advanced legislation to dissolve parliament, paving the way for national elections expected by late October, significantly raising the likelihood of Netanyahu's exit.
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partner calls for Knesset dissolution over military draft dispute
December 31 drops to 49%6%
An ultra-Orthodox Jewish faction in Netanyahu's coalition publicly declared loss of trust in him and called for dissolving the parliament due to Netanyahu's refusal to advance legislation exempting their community from military service. This threatened the stability of Netanyahu's government and increased market doubts about his tenure.
Netanyahu shelves Haredi draft exemption bill, triggering coalition collapse threats
Netanyahu informed ultra-Orthodox leaders that he would not advance legislation exempting their community from military service before the elections, prompting religious partners to call for the dissolution of the Knesset.
Netanyahu coalition faces collapse as ultra-Orthodox partner calls for parliament dissolution
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
An ultra-Orthodox coalition partner called to dissolve parliament over military draft disputes, threatening the stability of Netanyahu's government and raising the likelihood of early elections.
Ultra-Orthodox party calls for Knesset dissolution, threatening Netanyahu government
December 31 rises to 49%4%
An ultra-Orthodox party in Netanyahu's coalition demanded parliament dissolution over stalled military draft exemption legislation, signaling imminent government collapse and increasing market expectations of Netanyahu's departure.
Ultra-Orthodox Coalition Partners Threaten to Dissolve Knesset Over Conscription Dispute
A major coalition crisis erupted when Netanyahu informed ultra-Orthodox leaders that he would not advance a military draft exemption bill before the elections. In response, Haredi leaders declared they no longer trusted Netanyahu and called for the dissolution of the Knesset.
Israel’s Knesset advances dissolution proceedings after ultra-Orthodox parties quit government
December 31 drops to 39%11%
In May 2026, ultra-Orthodox parties withdrew support over stalled military draft exemptions, triggering Knesset dissolution proceedings and elections by October 2026. This political crisis increased uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure, reflected in fluctuating market prices.
Ultra-Orthodox parties break with Netanyahu over military conscription dispute
December 31 dips to 50%3%
Key ultra-Orthodox coalition partners publicly withdrew support from Netanyahu's government due to failure to pass a military draft exemption law, triggering a political crisis and calls for early elections.
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdraw support over military draft dispute
December 31 surges to 66%15%
Key ultra-Orthodox parties in Netanyahu's coalition withdrew support due to stalled legislation on military conscription exemptions, triggering a political crisis and increasing the likelihood of early elections and Netanyahu's potential resignation.
Israeli Knesset votes to dissolve itself, triggering early elections
December 31 jumps to 57%8%
The ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support over stalled military draft exemptions, leading to the Knesset's dissolution. This political crisis left Netanyahu's right-wing bloc with a razor-thin or nonexistent majority, increasing speculation about his potential exit.
Ultra-Orthodox parties threaten to dissolve parliament over military draft dispute
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support over Netanyahu's failure to advance legislation exempting their community from military service, threatening government collapse and early elections, increasing resignation speculation.
Ultra-Orthodox parties threaten to dissolve parliament over military draft dispute
June 30 plunges to 5%15%
In May 2026, ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support over conscription exemptions, threatening government collapse and early elections, sharply reducing market confidence in Netanyahu's continuation past mid-2026.
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partner threatens to bring down Israeli government over military draft
December 31 dips to 51%1%
An ultra-Orthodox Jewish party in Netanyahu's coalition called for parliament to be dissolved after Netanyahu refused to advance legislation exempting ultra-Orthodox Israelis from military service, threatening a coalition collapse.
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partner calls for parliament dissolution, threatening government collapse
June 30 plunges to 3%18%
An ultra-Orthodox party in Netanyahu's coalition demanded parliament dissolution over military draft disputes, signaling imminent government collapse and early elections, sharply increasing uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure and lowering June 30 resignation odds.
Ultra-Orthodox parties threaten coalition collapse over military draft bill
December 31 jumps to 58%7%
On May 12, 2026, Netanyahu informed ultra-Orthodox coalition partners he would not advance a military draft exemption bill before elections, prompting threats to dissolve the Knesset and signaling imminent government collapse, which increased market expectations of Netanyahu's departure.
Ultra-Orthodox party calls to dissolve parliament over military draft dispute
A key ultra-Orthodox coalition partner withdrew support and called for the Knesset to dissolve after Netanyahu shelved a military draft exemption bill, threatening to collapse the government.
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partners call for parliament dissolution over military draft dispute
December 31 jumps to 52%12%
Key ultra-Orthodox parties withdrew support from Netanyahu's coalition due to stalled legislation on military exemptions, triggering a government collapse and early elections. This political crisis sharply increased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Ultra-Orthodox parties withdraw support, triggering Knesset dissolution
December 31 jumps to 54%12%
Ultra-Orthodox factions withdrew support from Netanyahu's coalition over stalled military draft legislation, leading to the Knesset voting unanimously to dissolve itself, signaling a political crisis and increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down.
Netanyahu's coalition collapses over ultra-Orthodox military draft dispute
December 31 jumps to 60%10%
The ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support after Netanyahu refused to advance legislation exempting their community from military service before elections, leading to calls for dissolving the Knesset and early elections. This political crisis significantly increased the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire progress
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss ongoing Iran nuclear negotiations and progress on Gaza ceasefire, reaffirming his leadership role in critical regional issues. This meeting likely reinforced market confidence in Netanyahu's position through the end of the year, contributing to the rise in the December 31 outcome probability.
Ultra-Orthodox UTJ party withdraws support, collapsing Netanyahu's coalition
December 31 jumps to 53%11%
The United Torah Judaism party withdrew its support after failed negotiations on Haredi conscription, stripping Netanyahu of his parliamentary majority and collapsing the coalition, which pushed resignation odds sharply higher.
UTJ withdraws support, coalition collapses
May 31 dips to 0%3%
UTJ formally withdrew its support on May 10, 2026, after failed negotiations on Haredi conscription, stripping Netanyahu of a parliamentary majority and collapsing the coalition – the event that pushed the May‑31 odds to zero.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida, discusses Iran and Gaza ceasefire progress
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump focused on Iran’s nuclear threat and advancing the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase. Despite ongoing challenges, Netanyahu’s active leadership role and Trump’s public support, including calls for a pardon, bolstered market confidence in Netanyahu’s continued tenure through 2026.
Netanyahu faces renewed corruption trial pressure amid declining support
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Renewed media focus on Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial intensified political uncertainty, contributing to the final drop in the May‑31 and June‑30 probabilities to 1% and 3% respectively.
Netanyahu says Israel will phase out U.S. military support
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Netanyahu told CBS he wants to wean Israel off U.S. military aid, a stance that alarmed domestic allies and contributed to a final drop in the June‑30 Yes price to 3 % on 2026‑06‑03.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
May 31 dips to 1%1%
Israel launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, with Netanyahu's government involved in sensitive security matters, reinforcing his position and lowering chances of resignation by May 31.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu's government initiated a major military operation to recover the last hostage in Gaza, underscoring his continued leadership and focus on security issues, which likely diminished market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu announces plan to end all U.S. military aid to Israel within a decade
December 31 rises to 45%4%
On May 10, 2026, Netanyahu declared his intention to phase out U.S. military aid, signaling a strategic shift but also reflecting domestic and international pressures, which contributed to market uncertainty about his political future.
Netanyahu faces renewed US pressure to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
May 31 dips to 1%2%
U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging swift movement into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, signaling that continued delays could jeopardize his standing with Washington and increase resignation speculation.
Trump and Netanyahu meet in Florida, discuss Iran and Gaza progress
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
The high-profile meeting between Trump and Netanyahu focused on Iran negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, highlighting Netanyahu's ongoing political relevance and leadership, which likely supported market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 49%3%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting ongoing political and security challenges. This pressure may have contributed to some market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future, reflected in minor price fluctuations.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic natural gas export deal to Egypt demonstrated his continued leadership and influence in regional economic affairs, supporting market confidence that he would not resign imminently.
Singapore imposes sanctions on Israeli settlers amid West Bank violence
December 31 jumps to 53%9%
Singapore announced targeted sanctions on Israeli settlers involved in violence against Palestinians, highlighting international pressure on Israel. Netanyahu's government faced criticism but maintained its policies, reflecting political resilience and affecting resignation market prices.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Netanyahu’s government launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, a key issue delaying the next ceasefire phase. This operation underscored Netanyahu’s active leadership during wartime, supporting market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox tensions and violence
December 31 rises to 50%1%
Netanyahu called for restraint following violent protests and a fatal accident involving ultra-Orthodox demonstrators, highlighting ongoing internal political challenges but no indication of resignation plans.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%1%
Despite earlier criticism, Netanyahu agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire's second phase, indicating his ongoing active role in regional diplomacy and governance. This reduced market expectations for an imminent resignation, reflected in the decline of probabilities for May 31 and June 30 outcomes.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Netanyahu announced his acceptance to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, expanding his political role in regional peace efforts. This move suggested his continued active leadership, supporting a rise in the December 31 resignation probability from 48% to 53%.
Netanyahu meets Trump, insists on expanded US talks with Iran
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Netanyahu's private meeting with President Trump, where he pushed for expanded negotiations with Iran including missile and militant group limits, underscored his active role in foreign policy, supporting market confidence in his continued tenure through the year-end.
Trump hosts signing ceremony for Board of Peace in Davos with Netanyahu’s participation
December 31 rises to 53%3%
President Trump held a signing ceremony for the Board of Peace, with Netanyahu among the leaders present. The event underscored Netanyahu’s ongoing political engagement and alliance with Trump, reinforcing market expectations that he would not resign imminently.
Netanyahu joins Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Netanyahu accepted a role on the Trump-led Board of Peace to oversee Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling his continued active political role and reducing market expectations of resignation by May 31.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 53%8%
Israel's military launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, with Netanyahu's government actively managing the complex ceasefire process. This demonstrated Netanyahu's continued control over critical security issues, reducing resignation likelihood.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 rises to 53%4%
The landmark energy agreement was presented as a major economic win for Netanyahu’s government, temporarily lifting confidence in his leadership and nudging the December‑31 price upward again.
Netanyahu reiterates Hamas must disarm in Gaza peace process
December 31 jumps to 53%12%
Netanyahu emphasized that Hamas must disarm as part of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and peace process, reinforcing his commitment to regional stability. This statement coincided with a slight increase in the December 31 resignation probability from 41% to 53%.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu's high-profile meeting with Trump in Washington focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, underscoring his active leadership role and reducing near-term resignation expectations, coinciding with a peak in December 31 outcome price.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
The landmark gas deal was presented as a major economic win for Netanyahu, but critics argued it was a political maneuver to shore up support, leading some investors to doubt the durability of his coalition and further depress market odds.
Netanyahu publicly discloses prostate cancer treatment amid election campaign
June 30 dips to 5%2%
In late April 2026, Netanyahu revealed he had undergone surgery for prostate cancer, exposing a personal vulnerability that raised questions about his health and political future, contributing to market uncertainty and a decline in short-term resignation odds by June 30 and May 31.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu, slightly affecting market confidence in his tenure lasting through May 31.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional leader and energy power, likely bolstering his political standing and decreasing short-term resignation probabilities.
Sharp drop in June‑30 and May‑31 odds after ultra‑Orthodox draft law stalls
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Parliamentary deadlock over the ultra‑Orthodox conscription bill deepened, with key coalition partners threatening to withdraw support, causing market participants to view a near‑term resignation as increasingly likely.
Netanyahu joins Trump‑led Gaza Board of Peace, sparking coalition friction
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Netanyahu’s decision to join the Trump‑initiated Board of Peace was seen as a shift from his earlier stance, creating tension with right‑wing coalition partners and pushing the May‑31 and June‑30 odds down sharply.
Video of protests calling for Netanyahu's resignation is outdated
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Circulated videos claiming mass protests demanding Netanyahu's resignation were debunked as outdated, reducing immediate pressure from public demonstrations and impacting market confidence in his staying power.
Cabinet meeting on rising West Bank settler violence
June 30 dips to 3%4%
Netanyahu convened his security cabinet to address a surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, underscoring internal security challenges and pressure from right‑wing coalition partners. The heightened unrest further depressed the June‑30 and May‑31 resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu rivals Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid join forces for next election
December 31 jumps to 49%8%
Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint opposition alliance to contest the upcoming legislative elections, creating a unified bloc capable of unseating Netanyahu.
Netanyahu requests postponement of trial testimony citing security concerns
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Reports emerged that Netanyahu sought to delay his corruption trial testimony for security reasons, a request rejected by prosecutors. This indicated his intent to remain in office amid ongoing legal challenges, contributing to a sharp drop in the market's May 31 resignation probability from 26% to 3%.
Iran president claims full-scale war with West ahead of Netanyahu-Trump meeting
December 31 jumps to 42%6%
Iran's president stated his country is in a full-scale war with the U.S., Israel, and Europe, escalating tensions ahead of the Netanyahu-Trump meeting and complicating regional diplomacy.
Opposition Leaders Bennett and Lapid Merge Parties to Challenge Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 47%4%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint party named Together, consolidating opposition forces against Netanyahu ahead of the 2026 elections. This increased political pressure and raised market expectations for Netanyahu's eventual resignation by year-end, causing a decline in short-term resignation odds.
Netanyahu's main rivals Bennett and Lapid merge to challenge him
December 31 surges to 66%16%
Two of Netanyahu's biggest political rivals merged their parties to form a strong opposition bloc aiming to unseat him in the upcoming election, significantly increasing pressure on Netanyahu's government and raising resignation odds.
Israeli police forcibly enter UNRWA compound in Jerusalem
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
The forceful entry into the UN agency’s Jerusalem office sparked international criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of humanitarian issues, prompting traders to downgrade short‑term resignation odds, reflected in the sharp drop of the May‑31 option.
Opposition alliance formed to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections
December 31 dips to 41%2%
On April 27, 2026, Israeli opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint alliance to contest the upcoming elections, signaling a strengthened challenge to Netanyahu's hold on power and increasing market uncertainty about his political future.
Bennett and Lapid form joint opposition alliance ahead of 2026 election
December 31 jumps to 63%11%
Bennett and Lapid announced a joint opposition alliance to contest the 2026 election, raising the prospect of a united bloc capable of unseating Netanyahu. The news coincided with a brief rebound in the December‑31 contract (up to 63 % on 2026‑05‑25) as markets reassessed the likelihood of a coalition collapse.
Bennett and Lapid launch joint ‘Together’ opposition alliance
June 30 drops to 10%12%
Bennett and Lapid announced the formation of a joint “Together” alliance, consolidating opposition forces. The news pushed the “June 30” odds down sharply, as analysts saw the alliance as a credible pathway to topple Netanyahu before the election.
Bennett and Lapid form joint opposition slate against Netanyahu
June 30 drops to 6%6%
Bennett and Lapid announced a joint opposition ticket to oust Netanyahu in the upcoming 2026 election, sharpening expectations of a possible loss. The market’s Yes price for the June‑30 outcome fell from 12 % to 6 % over the following week.
Bennett and Lapid announce alliance to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 41%2%
On April 27, 2026, opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint political alliance aimed at replacing Netanyahu, signaling increased political pressure and contributing to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu spokesman's racist remarks leak, sparking controversy
December 31 rises to 44%3%
Netanyahu's spokesman Ziv Agmon made racist comments about Mizrahi Jews, causing public backlash and internal political pressure. Netanyahu's decision to keep him temporarily in office may have affected public perception and market confidence in Netanyahu's political stability.
Opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid unite to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections
December 31 jumps to 53%10%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint political alliance to contest the 2026 elections under Bennett's leadership, aiming to unseat Netanyahu. This consolidation of opposition forces contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future, reflected in fluctuating odds.
Opposition Leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid Merge Parties to Challenge Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 40%1%
Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced the merger of their respective parties into a unified list called 'Together' (Beyachad). This consolidation aimed to present a strong, unified opposition bloc to unseat Netanyahu in the upcoming elections.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid form joint opposition alliance 'Together'
December 31 drops to 41%12%
Opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid announced a joint political alliance to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming elections, increasing pressure on Netanyahu's government and lowering market confidence in his ability to remain prime minister through the year-end deadline.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger to unseat Netanyahu
May 31 plunges to 0%26%
Two former prime ministers announced they would merge their parties to build a broader opposition bloc aimed at replacing Netanyahu in the upcoming election, intensifying pressure on his leadership.
Limited travel resumes through Rafah crossing as Gaza ceasefire phase advances
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Israel announced limited travel through the Rafah crossing with Gaza, marking progress in the ceasefire's second phase. Netanyahu's government faced ongoing challenges balancing security and humanitarian concerns, influencing market views on his political durability.
Israeli opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid announce alliance to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 50%7%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties into a new alliance called Together, aiming to form a government to replace Netanyahu. This political consolidation increased market expectations for Netanyahu's eventual exit by the end of 2026.
Bennett and Lapid announce joint effort to unseat Netanyahu in upcoming elections
May 31 plunges to 0%26%
The alliance between two former prime ministers signaled a major opposition coalition, increasing pressure on Netanyahu and contributing to market volatility as the May 31 outcome price dropped sharply.
Reports highlight Netanyahu's political vulnerability amid coalition splits and corruption trial
December 31 rises to 43%3%
On April 26, reports emphasized Netanyahu's weakened position due to coalition tensions over ultra-Orthodox conscription exemptions and his ongoing corruption trial. This increased market uncertainty and raised the December 31 resignation probability from 40% to around 43%.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Amid a surge in settler attacks, Netanyahu held a security‑cabinet meeting, signalling a firm response to domestic unrest. The move was interpreted as an attempt to shore up his coalition, nudging the December‑31 resignation probability upward slightly.
Netanyahu rivals Bennett and Lapid merge parties to challenge Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 53%9%
Two of Netanyahu's main political rivals announced a merger of their parties to form a strong opposition bloc aiming to unseat him in the upcoming election, increasing market expectations of Netanyahu's exit by year-end.
Former PMs Bennett and Lapid unite to challenge Netanyahu in elections
June 30 plunges to 5%18%
Bennett and Lapid announced a merger of their parties to form a joint opposition bloc, raising expectations of a credible challenge to Netanyahu. The market’s June‑30 probability fell from the high‑20s on early April to single digits by mid‑May as the prospect of a forced exit grew.
Netanyahu faces mounting political pressure amid coalition fractures and corruption trial
December 31 rises to 43%3%
On April 26, 2026, reports highlighted Netanyahu's political vulnerability due to coalition splits over ultra-Orthodox conscription exemptions and his ongoing corruption trial, increasing market uncertainty about his tenure and raising the December 31 resignation probability from 40% to around 43%.
Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
Israeli President Isaac Herzog delayed a decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt his ongoing corruption trial, signaling continued legal and political challenges for Netanyahu but no immediate resignation. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in short-term resignation probabilities.
Former PMs Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint party to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Bennett and Lapid, former prime ministers, announced a merger to contest the upcoming election, uniting opposition forces and significantly increasing political pressure on Netanyahu to resign or be removed.
Bennett and Lapid announce joint opposition bloc to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties to form a strong opposition alliance aiming to defeat Netanyahu in the upcoming election, increasing political pressure and raising the probability of Netanyahu's resignation by year-end.
Opposition coalition launches bid to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 41%1%
In late April 2026, opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a renewed alliance to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming elections, increasing political pressure on the prime minister.
President Herzog says pardon decision will wait for plea‑deal talks
December 31 dips to 52%2%
President Herzog publicly said he would consider Netanyahu’s pardon request only after a plea‑deal is exhausted, signalling no imminent legal relief and nudging the market’s “December 31” price down slightly.
Netanyahu's main rivals Bennett and Lapid merge parties to challenge him in election
December 31 jumps to 52%11%
The merger of Netanyahu's key political rivals into a single bloc increased pressure on his government and raised market expectations of a potential end to his premiership.
Bennett and Lapid unite to form opposition alliance against Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 53%12%
Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties to create a strong opposition bloc aiming to unseat Netanyahu in the upcoming elections, significantly increasing political pressure and market expectations of Netanyahu's potential exit.
Former Israeli PMs Bennett and Lapid unite to challenge Netanyahu in elections
December 31 drops to 40%6%
Bennett and Lapid announced a merger of their parties to form a joint bloc aimed at ousting Netanyahu in the upcoming election. The alliance signaled a credible, united opposition, causing the “December 31” probability to fall from a mid‑40 % range to 40 % by the end of the analysis window.
Bennett and Lapid join forces ahead of 2026 election
July 31 drops to 2%14%
Bennett and Lapid announced a formal merger of their parties, creating a unified opposition bloc poised to challenge Netanyahu. Polls shifted in favour of the opposition, pulling the “July 31” probability down to the low single‑digit range.
Former Israeli prime ministers Bennett and Lapid form alliance to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint electoral alliance aimed at uniting opposition forces to challenge Netanyahu's leadership, increasing political pressure on Netanyahu and contributing to market expectations of his potential resignation by year-end.
Israeli president says pardon decision will wait for plea‑deal talks
December 31 dips to 42%1%
President Herzog announced he would defer any pardon for Netanyahu until a plea‑deal negotiation concluded, signaling that the prime minister would remain in office for the near term. The market responded with a modest rise in the “December 31” price (from 43 % on 10 April to 42 % on 21 April) as the risk of an immediate resignation receded.
Israel’s president puts off decision on pardon for Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 40%4%
The president’s office delayed a decision on a possible pardon for Netanyahu, stating that a pardon would require his resignation or a guilty verdict. The legal dead‑lock signaled that Netanyahu could not count on an early exit, reinforcing the decline in the “December 31” price.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger to form joint opposition bloc
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Bennett and Lapid merged their parties into a single list named Together, led by Bennett, aiming to unseat Netanyahu and strengthening the opposition's challenge, which contributed to a decline in the June 30 resignation odds.
Bennett and Lapid merge parties to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming election
December 31 dips to 40%4%
The merger of Bennett 2026 and Yesh Atid into a united party increased opposition strength against Netanyahu, signaling a consolidated effort to oust him in the upcoming election, further reducing market confidence in Netanyahu's continuation as PM by year-end.
Netanyahu Rivals Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid Merge Parties to Form 'Together' Alliance
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a new political alliance named 'Together' to challenge Benjamin Netanyahu in the upcoming elections, consolidating the opposition and increasing pressure on his coalition.
Former PMs Bennett and Lapid merge parties to challenge Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint party to contest the 2026 elections, consolidating opposition forces against Netanyahu. This increased political pressure and market expectations for Netanyahu's eventual resignation by year-end.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
US envoys pressing Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's next phase indicated ongoing diplomatic engagement and Netanyahu's active role, which likely decreased market odds of his resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 rises to 49%3%
Netanyahu’s three‑hour private meeting with President Trump was framed as a push for renewed U.S.–Iran negotiations, raising hopes that a diplomatic win could stabilize his coalition and lower resignation risk, contributing to a modest price rise for the December‑31 outcome.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest
May 31 plunges to 3%24%
Following the death of a 14‑year‑old boy during protests against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, Netanyahu called for restraint. The incident highlighted growing domestic tension and the fragility of his coalition, causing the May‑31 and June‑30 resignation odds to fall sharply.
Netanyahu announces successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu publicly revealed he had been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer but completed successful treatment with no metastasis. This health disclosure reassured the public and markets about his capacity to continue in office, stabilizing but not reversing the downward trend in resignation odds.
Netanyahu reveals he underwent successful prostate cancer treatment
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
Netanyahu disclosed his recent prostate cancer treatment and recovery, addressing health concerns that had fueled speculation about his ability to continue in office, which helped stabilize market confidence in his tenure through the end of 2026.
Netanyahu reveals he has been treated for early‑stage prostate cancer
June 30 plunges to 5%16%
Netanyahu publicly disclosed his early‑stage prostate cancer treatment, confirming his health but also exposing a personal vulnerability. The announcement coincided with the market’s June‑30 probability plunging from around 21 % on Mar 6 to 5 % by early May.
Poll shows Bennett narrowing gap with Netanyahu ahead of October election
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Internal poll data showing Bennett closing the gap to Netanyahu (Bennett 32 % vs. Netanyahu 42 %) added to market anxiety, contributing to the final fall of the “June 30” probability to 7 % and the “December 31” probability to 41 %.
Netanyahu reveals successful prostate cancer treatment, health stable
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu disclosed he underwent and completed treatment for early-stage prostate cancer, addressing rumors and potentially impacting perceptions of his ability to continue in office.
Netanyahu announces successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
Netanyahu revealed he had been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer and completed targeted radiation therapy successfully. This disclosure raised questions about his health but he affirmed his ability to continue in office, causing some market fluctuations regarding his political future.
Netanyahu Reveals Past Prostate Cancer Treatment, Declaring Himself Healthy
December 31 rises to 43%2%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly disclosed that he had successfully undergone targeted radiation therapy for early-stage prostate cancer. The revelation of his health status initially introduced personal vulnerability questions but stabilized as doctors confirmed he was cancer-free.
Netanyahu announces successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
June 30 dips to 5%2%
Netanyahu revealed he underwent targeted radiation therapy for a small malignant tumor detected after prostate surgery, confirming his good health. This disclosure alleviated some concerns about his ability to continue in office, reducing short-term resignation odds.
Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly disclosed that he had undergone successful radiation therapy for early-stage prostate cancer, exposing a personal vulnerability that briefly raised questions about his health and political future.
Netanyahu publicly reveals successful prostate cancer treatment
On April 24, Netanyahu announced he had been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer and completed successful treatment months earlier. This disclosure raised concerns about his health and political future, causing some market uncertainty but did not directly imply imminent resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 rises to 46%3%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a historic $35 billion natural‑gas contract with Egypt, portraying it as a boost to Israel’s regional influence. The deal was seen as a political win, pushing the December‑31 resignation probability up as his government appeared more stable.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft‑law protest, prompting Netanyahu call for calm
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
A teenage boy was run over by a bus amid protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox Jews, leading the prime minister to urge restraint. The incident heightened political pressure on his coalition, causing the market’s May‑31 resignation probability to plunge.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Reveals Prostate Cancer Diagnosis
December 31 dips to 41%1%
Netanyahu publicized his annual medical report revealing he had quietly undergone successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer. The disclosure exposed personal vulnerability and raised questions about his health, contributing to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu reveals secret cancer treatment, says he’s healthy
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Netanyahu publicly disclosed a recent prostate‑cancer treatment, emphasizing his health was stable. The revelation reduced speculation about a health‑related resignation, nudging the “December 31” probability down a few points.
Netanyahu urges calm after bus kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
The death of a 14‑year‑old protester heightened tensions with religious parties that support Netanyahu, prompting fears of a coalition collapse and increasing the chance of his resignation by May 31.
Netanyahu reveals secret prostate cancer treatment
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu disclosed undergoing successful prostate cancer treatment, which he had kept secret to avoid political exploitation. This raised concerns about his health and political future, increasing market uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest bus accident
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu called for restraint following a protest where a bus ran over a 14‑year‑old ultra‑Orthodox boy, intensifying political pressure over the draft law and boosting speculation that the controversy could force his resignation.
Netanyahu reveals he quietly underwent treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had been treated for early-stage prostate cancer, exposing personal vulnerability and temporarily lowering short-term resignation odds as he declared himself healthy.
Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for prostate cancer
December 31 rises to 48%1%
Netanyahu publicly disclosed successful treatment for early‑stage prostate cancer. While the health news eased personal‑health concerns, it did little to alter market sentiment about his political future, leaving the ‘December 31’ odds largely unchanged.
Netanyahu publicly reveals early-stage prostate cancer diagnosis and successful treatment
December 31 rises to 45%3%
Netanyahu disclosed he had early-stage prostate cancer but completed successful treatment, reassuring markets about his health and ability to continue in office. This disclosure temporarily lowered short-term resignation odds as he declared himself healthy and resumed official duties.
Netanyahu reveals early-stage prostate cancer diagnosis and successful treatment
December 31 rises to 45%4%
Netanyahu publicly disclosed his early-stage prostate cancer diagnosis and completion of successful treatment, alleviating concerns about his health and stabilizing market expectations regarding his continuation in office.
Netanyahu reveals he had prostate cancer, completed treatment
December 31 dips to 42%3%
Netanyahu announced he had been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer and completed radiation treatment, which raised questions about his health and political future, causing moderate market fluctuations.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announces treatment for prostate cancer
December 31 rises to 46%2%
Netanyahu publicized his annual medical report, revealing he was diagnosed with and treated for an early-stage malignant prostate tumor.
Netanyahu announces he had early-stage prostate cancer and completed treatment
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
Netanyahu revealed he had an early-stage malignant prostate tumor removed and completed radiation treatment, which raised concerns about his health and political future, causing market uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu publicly reveals successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu announced he had been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer but had completed successful treatment, reassuring the public about his health. This disclosure caused some market uncertainty about his ability to continue as Prime Minister but did not lead to immediate resignation expectations.
Plea deal talks begin amid Netanyahu's corruption trial and potential 2026 exit
June 30 rises to 7%1%
Preliminary plea deal discussions between Netanyahu's legal team and prosecutors increased speculation about his possible resignation or removal before the end of 2026, slightly boosting market odds for an exit.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Reveals Prostate Cancer Diagnosis
December 31 jumps to 49%8%
Netanyahu announced he was successfully treated for early-stage prostate cancer, reassuring the public of his health and reducing immediate concerns about an unexpected medical exit.
Netanyahu says Israel will stay in southern Lebanon as long as needed
Netanyahu publicly declared there would be “no ceasefire in Lebanon,” signaling a hard‑line stance that reduced speculation of a forced resignation and kept the “June 30” odds near zero for the rest of the month.
Netanyahu’s wife’s retouched images spark ethics debate
December 31 rises to 45%4%
The revelation that official government photos of Netanyahu’s wife were heavily retouched raised ethical concerns and public debate, potentially undermining Netanyahu’s image. This event occurred during a period of low resignation probability for May 31 and June 30 outcomes.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Netanyahu reversed his earlier stance and agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace aimed at overseeing Gaza ceasefire and reconstruction. This move showed his continued active role in regional peace efforts, supporting market confidence in his political longevity through mid-2026.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite previous criticism, signaled his continued political engagement and leadership role in regional peace efforts, reducing near-term expectations of resignation by May 31 and June 30.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional energy power and contributed to regional stability, which likely reduced immediate resignation speculation, reflected in stable or slightly lower short-term resignation probabilities.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
May 31 dips to 1%2%
The revelation that official images of Netanyahu’s wife were heavily edited raised questions about the administration’s transparency, further eroding confidence and pushing the May‑31 price down to near‑zero levels.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting his ongoing leadership in complex peace efforts. This engagement suggested Netanyahu was not stepping down imminently, contributing to declining market odds for early resignation.
Opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid form joint party to challenge Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 40%4%
Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint party to contest the 2026 elections, consolidating opposition forces and increasing political pressure on Netanyahu, which was reflected in declining market confidence in his tenure lasting through the year-end.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 39%2%
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting internal security challenges. This event underscored ongoing political pressures but did not indicate imminent resignation, influencing market sentiment downward.
Netanyahu orders strikes on Hezbollah amid regional tensions
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu’s directive for vigorous strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon amid ongoing regional conflict underscored his active leadership role, reducing speculation about imminent resignation and stabilizing market prices.
Ofer Golan, Netanyahu's personal adviser, announces resignation
December 31 rises to 46%3%
Golan stepped down after being indicted on witness intimidation charges related to 2019 harassment of a key witness in Netanyahu's criminal trial, damaging Netanyahu's credibility and increasing market speculation about his potential removal.
Ofer Golan, Netanyahu's personal adviser, announces resignation
Golan stepped down after being indicted on witness intimidation charges related to 2019 harassment of a key witness in Netanyahu's criminal trial, damaging Netanyahu's credibility and increasing market speculation about his potential removal.
Key Netanyahu aide Ofer Golan resigns amid witness intimidation allegations
Ofer Golan, Netanyahu's personal adviser and spokesperson, resigned after about a decade in the role amid allegations, signaling internal pressures and potential weakening of Netanyahu's support structure, impacting market sentiment.
Netanyahu aide Ofer Golan resigns amid witness intimidation charges
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Golan, Netanyahu's personal adviser and spokesperson, stepped down after being indicted on witness intimidation charges related to 2019 harassment of a key witness in Netanyahu's criminal trial. This scandal damaged Netanyahu's credibility and increased market speculation about his potential removal.
Longtime Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigns amid legal controversies
December 31 dips to 41%3%
Ofer Golan, a senior adviser and spokesperson for Netanyahu, resigned amid allegations of witness intimidation related to Netanyahu's criminal trial. This resignation added to the perception of instability and legal troubles surrounding Netanyahu's administration, affecting market confidence in his tenure.
Longtime Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigns amid corruption trial
Ofer Golan, a longtime adviser and spokesman for Netanyahu, resigned amid ongoing corruption trial controversies, adding to political instability and uncertainty about Netanyahu's hold on power, affecting market sentiment especially for the June 30 outcome.
Netanyahu's personal adviser Ofer Golan resigns amid witness intimidation charges
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Ofer Golan, Netanyahu's spokesperson and media strategist, stepped down after being indicted on witness intimidation charges related to a 2019 court case, adding to internal political pressures and uncertainty about Netanyahu's leadership.
Netanyahu's longtime adviser Ofer Golan resigns amid witness intimidation charges
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Ofer Golan, Netanyahu's personal adviser and spokesperson, resigned following indictment on witness intimidation related to Netanyahu's criminal trial. This resignation highlighted internal pressures and legal challenges facing Netanyahu, increasing market speculation about his potential resignation by December 31, 2026.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 45%4%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and signaling political stability. This positive development likely reduced short-term resignation expectations, as Netanyahu demonstrated effective leadership in regional energy and diplomacy.
Ofer Golan resigns from Netanyahu's Prime Minister's Office
Longtime Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigned amid Qatargate charges, signaling internal instability and potential erosion of Netanyahu's support base.
Netanyahu requests postponement of trial testimony citing security reasons
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu’s repeated requests to delay his corruption trial testimony for security reasons amid ongoing conflicts suggested his intent to maintain leadership, impacting market expectations of resignation.
Netanyahu's aide Ofer Golan resigns amid Qatargate witness intimidation charges
Longtime Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigned from the PMO after being indicted on charges of witness intimidation related to Netanyahu's 2019 criminal trial. This legal development may have contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's position.
Longtime Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigns from Prime Minister's Office amid Qatargate investigation
May 31 plunges to 3%24%
This legal and political scandal further weakened Netanyahu's inner circle, contributing to the market's downward trend.
Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigns from PMO amid Qatargate charges
December 31 rises to 43%3%
Longtime adviser Ofer Golan resigned from Netanyahu's office after being indicted on witness intimidation charges related to the 2019 criminal trial, adding to the erosion of Netanyahu's inner circle.
Longtime Netanyahu Adviser Ofer Golan Resigns Amid Legal Scandals
December 31 dips to 41%3%
Ofer Golan, a key prime ministerial aide previously indicted on witness intimidation charges, resigned from the Prime Minister's Office, highlighting ongoing legal and staff instability.
Israel's ruling coalition proposes early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger at Netanyahu
June 30 plunges to 3%17%
The coalition submitted a dissolution proposal due to ultra-Orthodox parties' dissatisfaction with Netanyahu over conscription exemptions. This increased pressure on Netanyahu's position.
Netanyahu struggles to convert military gains into political success amid Iran war
December 31 dips to 40%3%
Despite military operations against Iran, Netanyahu’s political standing weakened as he failed to secure decisive victories, leading to slipping approval ratings and increased election risks.
Israeli parliament passes 2026 state budget, averting snap elections
December 31 jumps to 45%8%
The Knesset's approval of the 2026 state budget removed the immediate threat of early elections, temporarily stabilizing Netanyahu's government and causing a modest recovery in market sentiment about his staying in office through the year-end.
Netanyahu signals readiness to resume war amid ceasefire with Iran
December 31 rises to 41%1%
Netanyahu stated Israel is maintaining the ceasefire with Iran but continues strikes in Lebanon and is ready to resume war if necessary. This stance reflected ongoing conflict pressures and political challenges, sustaining market doubts about his tenure.
Netanyahu’s corruption trial resumes in Jerusalem court
December 31 dips to 41%4%
Netanyahu’s long‑running corruption trial resumed after the emergency was lifted, renewing media focus on his legal jeopardy. The restart coincided with a brief dip in the “December 31” market (mid‑40s) and kept the “June 30” probability near single‑digit levels.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 rises to 42%3%
Netanyahu agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling cooperation but also exposing him to criticism from far-right allies, affecting political stability perceptions.
Israel approves appointment of new Mossad chief, signaling government continuity
December 31 dips to 44%1%
The approval of Roman Gofman as new Mossad chief by Netanyahu's government indicated ongoing governance and no immediate resignation, contributing to market stabilization in Netanyahu's tenure odds.
Netanyahu objects to US‑appointed Gaza oversight board
June 30 rises to 7%1%
Israel’s objection to the White House’s Gaza board signaled a breakdown in US‑Israel coordination, raising the prospect of a political showdown that could force Netanyahu’s resignation, lifting the June 30 price from 6% to 7% as the market reassessed short‑term risk.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 40%2%
US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, emphasizing his central role in regional peace efforts and diminishing speculation about his stepping down. This corresponded with a decline in the December 31 outcome price to 40%.
Netanyahu's corruption trial set to resume amid political turmoil
December 31 dips to 36%3%
The announcement of the trial's resumption on April 12 heightened political pressure on Netanyahu, raising speculation about his potential resignation and causing market volatility.
Opposition accuses Netanyahu of failing war goals after Iran ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 48%5%
On April 9, 2026, opposition leaders publicly accused Netanyahu of failing to achieve war objectives following a ceasefire with Iran, increasing political pressure and public dissatisfaction with his leadership, which influenced market sentiment.
Netanyahu under fire as Israel agrees to cease‑fire with Iran
December 31 drops to 40%8%
A cease‑fire with Iran was announced, drawing criticism of Netanyahu’s war strategy. The diplomatic setback lowered confidence that he would remain in office, contributing to a small fall in the December‑31 “Yes” probability from 48 % on 8 Apr to 40 % on 10 Apr.
Opposition leaders call for Netanyahu’s immediate resignation after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Following a ceasefire with Iran, opposition figures publicly demanded Netanyahu’s resignation, citing failed strategies, which heightened political instability and market doubts about his continuation as PM.
Netanyahu criticized for Iran war failures and ceasefire brokered without his input
December 31 dips to 41%3%
Netanyahu faced sharp criticism after a ceasefire with Iran was announced unexpectedly, undermining his claims of military success. Public and political opposition grew, with calls for his resignation intensifying, which contributed to market skepticism about his remaining in office through 2026.
Netanyahu faces criticism after Iran ceasefire brokered without his input
December 31 dips to 41%3%
Netanyahu was criticized domestically for the ceasefire with Iran being brokered without his involvement, leading to increased calls for his resignation and public dissatisfaction, negatively impacting his political standing.
Netanyahu faces backlash over Iran ceasefire and war outcomes
December 31 drops to 40%10%
Following the surprise ceasefire with Iran brokered without Netanyahu's full involvement, opposition leaders criticized his war strategy and called for his resignation. This political backlash contributed to declining market confidence in Netanyahu's ability to remain in office through the year-end.
Netanyahu faces criticism after ceasefire with Iran brokered without his input
December 31 drops to 41%8%
Following a ceasefire agreement with Iran announced by the US, Netanyahu faced domestic criticism for being sidelined in the negotiations and failing to achieve war objectives, increasing calls for his resignation and weakening his political standing.
Netanyahu under fire for Iran war failures and ceasefire brokered without his input
Netanyahu faced widespread criticism after a ceasefire with Iran was announced without his involvement, undermining his leadership image and fueling calls for resignation, which negatively affected market confidence in his tenure.
Netanyahu's corruption trial resumes after Iran war pause
December 31 rises to 41%2%
After Israel lifted a state of emergency related to the Iran war, Netanyahu's long-running corruption trial resumed, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his tenure, contributing to market volatility.
Netanyahu criticized for Iran ceasefire brokered without his input
December 31 dips to 42%4%
A ceasefire agreement with Iran was announced unexpectedly, undermining Netanyahu's military efforts and leading to public and opposition backlash, which pressured his political standing and affected market odds.
Cease‑fire with Iran announced, sparking criticism of Netanyahu’s war strategy
June 30 drops to 5%8%
A surprise cease‑fire with Iran was announced, undermining Netanyahu’s war narrative and prompting a sharp drop in the “June 30” market to single‑digit levels (around 5 %). Traders saw the cease‑fire as a potential catalyst for his removal.
Netanyahu faces criticism over Iran conflict ceasefire brokered without his input
December 31 plunges to 36%15%
A surprise ceasefire with Iran, brokered without Netanyahu's involvement, sparked public anger and political criticism, undermining Netanyahu's image as a strong leader. This contributed to a decline in the December 31 outcome probability from 51% to 36%.
Israeli opposition leaders criticize Netanyahu over ceasefire deal with Iran
December 31 plunges to 35%15%
Opposition figures like Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett condemned Netanyahu's handling of a ceasefire deal with Iran, intensifying political pressure and public dissatisfaction, which contributed to market declines in Netanyahu's survival odds.
Netanyahu supports US-Iran ceasefire but excludes Lebanon from truce
December 31 rises to 41%2%
Netanyahu endorsed the US decision to suspend strikes on Iran but stated the ceasefire would not apply to Israel's military operations in Lebanon. This stance reflected ongoing military tensions and political challenges, contributing to public and opposition criticism and uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future.
Israel greets Iran ceasefire with unease, opposition criticizes Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 40%4%
Following a fragile ceasefire with Iran, Netanyahu faced sharp criticism from opposition leaders accusing him of failing to meet war goals, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his future leadership.
Widespread backlash against Netanyahu over Iran ceasefire deal
December 31 dips to 40%4%
Following a ceasefire with Iran brokered without Israeli input, Netanyahu faced intense domestic criticism and international isolation, undermining his political standing and causing market doubts about his tenure.
Trump Announces Ceasefire with Iran, Sparking Backlash Against Netanyahu in Israel
December 31 drops to 40%11%
US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, leaving Netanyahu's stated war goals unachieved and triggering fierce domestic criticism and calls for his resignation.
Iran ceasefire announced, Netanyahu faces sharp domestic criticism
December 31 dips to 41%2%
The ceasefire with Iran was seen as a strategic setback by many Israelis, leading to increased calls for Netanyahu's resignation and a decline in public support reflected in the market.
Netanyahu faces criticism after Iran ceasefire announcement
Following the US-Iran ceasefire, Netanyahu faced increased opposition criticism for failing to achieve war objectives, intensifying political pressure ahead of elections and contributing to market skepticism about his staying power.
Israeli public and opposition leaders criticize Netanyahu over Iran ceasefire deal
December 31 drops to 40%7%
Following a ceasefire brokered without Israel’s direct involvement, Netanyahu faced severe domestic criticism and calls for resignation from opposition figures, reflecting eroding political support and public dissatisfaction.
Israel supports US-Iran ceasefire but excludes Lebanon, sparking backlash
December 31 dips to 42%2%
Netanyahu backed the US-Iran ceasefire but excluded Lebanon, causing domestic and international criticism and opposition calls for his resignation, increasing political pressure.
Netanyahu declares military successes against Iran, asserts changing balance of power
In a statement, Netanyahu highlighted recent military strikes against Iran and claimed significant achievements shifting the regional balance of power, aiming to bolster public support and his political standing amid ongoing conflict.
Netanyahu under fire for Iran war failures and surprise ceasefire
June 30 drops to 7%7%
Following a surprise ceasefire with Iran brokered without Netanyahu's input, opposition leaders called for his resignation, citing failed war objectives. This intensified political pressure and contributed to a sharp decline in the market's confidence in Netanyahu's survival through mid-2026.
Netanyahu announces aide who made racist remarks will be replaced
June 30 drops to 5%9%
After backlash from his own party and opposition, Netanyahu reversed his earlier stance and committed to replacing his embattled aide, reflecting political pressure and impacting market sentiment negatively.
Netanyahu hints at holding off elections to pass 2026 budget
December 31 jumps to 44%8%
Netanyahu indicated a desire to delay elections by passing the state budget, aiming to maintain power despite political challenges, which influenced market perceptions of his staying in office through year-end.
Trump warns Iran of further strikes during Netanyahu visit to Florida
June 30 dips to 6%1%
During Netanyahu’s visit to Florida, Trump warned Iran against reconstituting its nuclear program, signaling continued U.S.-Israel cooperation. Netanyahu’s presence and active diplomacy suggested political continuity, dampening market expectations of his resignation by June 30.
Netanyahu defends military actions and criticizes political rivals
December 31 jumps to 46%10%
Netanyahu released a document blaming political rivals for failures during investigations and presenting himself positively, aiming to consolidate support amid growing opposition and legal challenges, which influenced market sentiment around April 2026.
Netanyahu's spokesman Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist remarks and criticism
December 31 drops to 39%5%
The resignation of Netanyahu's spokesperson following leaked racist comments and criticism of Netanyahu himself intensified political turmoil and damaged the prime minister's image, contributing to market doubts about his political future.
Netanyahu removes top aide after Likud backlash over racist remarks
December 31 rises to 44%4%
Facing pressure from his own party, Netanyahu reversed his earlier support and removed his acting chief of staff and spokesman, signaling internal party tensions and weakening his political position.
Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman to remain until replacement found
December 31 drops to 6%7%
Despite backlash over racist remarks, Netanyahu requested his spokesman Ziv Agmon to stay in office until a replacement was found, reflecting internal party tensions and affecting market perceptions of Netanyahu's control over his team.
Poll finds three‑quarters of Israelis want Netanyahu to step down
December 31 plunges to 35%16%
A Channel 12 poll showed 75 % of Israelis now believed Netanyahu should resign, pushing the December‑31 market down to the mid‑40s for a brief period before stabilising later in the month.
Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman to remain until replacement found
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Despite controversy over racist remarks, Netanyahu requested Ziv Agmon to stay until a replacement was found, signaling internal challenges but no immediate resignation, which kept market probabilities low for near-term departure.
Netanyahu's spokesman resigns amid racist remarks scandal
December 31 dips to 45%2%
The resignation of Netanyahu's spokesman following leaked racist comments intensified political controversy and opposition criticism, further undermining Netanyahu's public standing and market confidence in his continued leadership.
Netanyahu faces opposition calls for resignation after Iran ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 50%7%
Opposition leaders criticized Netanyahu for failing to achieve war objectives and called for his immediate resignation following the ceasefire with Iran, increasing political pressure on his premiership.
Netanyahu Reverses Decision, Announces Replacement of Aide Ziv Agmon
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Following severe backlash from his own Likud party and the opposition, Netanyahu reversed his decision and announced that Agmon would be replaced, resolving a brief internal coalition crisis.
Netanyahu Asks Embattled Spokesperson Ziv Agmon to Remain Temporarily
December 31 drops to 36%12%
Netanyahu initially asked his spokesperson and chief of staff, Ziv Agmon, to stay in office despite leaked racist remarks, drawing intense criticism from both opposition and coalition members.
Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman Ziv Agmon to remain until replacement found
December 31 drops to 43%6%
Despite Agmon's resignation offer after racist remarks leaked, Netanyahu requested he stay until a replacement was appointed, reflecting internal party tensions and impacting market perceptions of leadership stability.
Netanyahu initially defends then agrees to replace embattled spokesman after backlash
December 31 drops to 41%6%
After initially asking Ziv Agmon to remain despite racist remarks, Netanyahu reversed course following backlash from his party and opposition, announcing Agmon would be replaced. This political turmoil reflected weakening support and increased doubts about Netanyahu's political future, influencing market prices downward.
Netanyahu Spokesman Ziv Agmon Resigns Over Leaked Racist Remarks
December 31 jumps to 44%9%
Netanyahu's chief of staff and spokesman Ziv Agmon resigned following a major political backlash over leaked derogatory comments about Mizrahi Likud lawmakers.
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
June 30 rises to 7%1%
The launch of a major search for the final hostage signaled a potential end to the first phase of the cease‑fire, but also underscored ongoing military activity, causing a modest rise in the June‑30 price after a low point.
Longtime Netanyahu Adviser Ofer Golan Resigns Amid Qatargate Investigation
December 31 dips to 39%3%
Ofer Golan, a senior Netanyahu adviser, resigned amid legal troubles linked to the Qatargate scandal, further weakening Netanyahu's inner circle and diminishing market confidence in his ability to remain PM through year-end.
Netanyahu under investigation for war crimes and ICC charges
Netanyahu faces charges from the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity related to Gaza, adding another layer of legal and political pressure that could lead to resignation.
Netanyahu rules out resigning in exchange for pardon amid corruption charges
Netanyahu publicly stated he would not retire from politics in exchange for a pardon, defying demands from opposition figures that any pardon should be conditional on his resignation.
Trump warns Iran of further strikes during Netanyahu’s Florida visit
June 30 dips to 5%2%
During a high‑profile meeting with Netanyahu, Trump’s warning to Iran underscored regional tensions and suggested Netanyahu’s foreign‑policy agenda was increasingly tied to U.S. leadership, adding uncertainty to his domestic standing and pulling the June‑30 price down further.
Israel revokes licenses of humanitarian groups in Gaza, raising tensions
December 31 drops to 38%6%
Israel's decision to revoke licenses of over three dozen humanitarian organizations in Gaza escalated tensions and complicated the ceasefire's next phase. This development contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future amid ongoing conflict management challenges.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire oversight
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the US-led Board of Peace signaled his commitment to the Gaza ceasefire process and regional diplomacy, reinforcing his position and reducing resignation expectations.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu heads for US meeting
December 31 rises to 43%3%
Netanyahu's travel to the US for talks amid humanitarian challenges in Gaza highlighted his active role in diplomacy and crisis response, factors that likely kept resignation odds lower.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 jumps to 42%7%
Top US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, including disarming Hamas. This diplomatic pressure influenced market sentiment, reflecting challenges Netanyahu faces in balancing security and political stability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 dips to 38%3%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and signaling his ongoing leadership and influence, which likely decreased market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked private messages
December 31 drops to 35%9%
Netanyahu's spokesperson and acting chief of staff Ziv Agmon offered his resignation after derogatory and racist remarks about Mizrahi Likud lawmakers were leaked.
Polls show Netanyahu's Likud party losing support after Iran ceasefire
December 31 drops to 42%11%
Polls released showed Netanyahu's Likud party losing seats and public support declining following an unpopular ceasefire with Iran, increasing political risks and contributing to market declines in his staying probability.
Israeli parliament passes budget, averting early elections
December 31 jumps to 45%7%
The Knesset passed the state budget, preventing an early election. By averting a trigger that would have forced Netanyahu out, the market’s belief that he would stay until the end of the year rose, lifting the December‑31 “Yes” price from roughly 38 % on 30 Mar to 45 % on 1 Apr.
Netanyahu states Iran war goals achieved beyond halfway point
December 31 jumps to 45%7%
Netanyahu publicly declared that the military campaign against Iran had achieved more than half its objectives, signaling ongoing conflict but also progress. This statement influenced market perceptions by underscoring Netanyahu's continued active leadership amid war.
Israeli parliament passes budget, delaying early elections
December 31 surges to 50%15%
Parliament passed a budget that temporarily staved off early elections, giving a modest boost to the December‑31 market which rose back toward 50 % by early April.
Knesset Passes 2026 State Budget, Averting Early Elections
June 30 drops to 7%5%
Netanyahu's governing coalition successfully passed the 2026 state budget just before the March 31 deadline, preventing the automatic dissolution of parliament and securing his position.
Netanyahu grants first US media interview since Iran war launch
December 31 rises to 40%2%
Netanyahu's rare interview with Newsmax CEO Chris Ruddy focused on military and political strategy regarding Iran, reinforcing his active leadership role amid ongoing conflict, which temporarily supported his political standing.
Israeli parliament approves 2026 state budget, averting early elections
December 31 jumps to 44%5%
The Knesset's approval of the state budget allowed Netanyahu's government to avoid snap elections, temporarily stabilizing his political position and reducing immediate risks of his resignation before the end of 2026.
Netanyahu announces replacement for embattled spokesman after backlash
December 31 surges to 60%17%
Following widespread backlash over racist remarks by Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu announced that Agmon would be replaced soon, aiming to soothe party rebels and stabilize his administration, which temporarily boosted market confidence.
Israeli Parliament Passes 2026 State Budget, Averting Early Elections
June 30 drops to 7%7%
The Knesset passed the annual budget in an overnight session, removing the immediate threat of automatic government dissolution and ensuring Netanyahu's coalition can complete its term until the fall.
Israeli parliament passes 2026 budget, averting early elections
December 31 dips to 43%4%
The Knesset approved the state budget, allowing Netanyahu's government to complete its term until the fall elections. This political stability reduced immediate risks of Netanyahu stepping down, influencing market prices downward for his exit probability.
Israeli parliament passes 2026 state budget, averting early elections
December 31 jumps to 41%8%
The Knesset approved the defense-heavy 2026 state budget in a marathon session, allowing Netanyahu's government to avoid snap elections and continue its term until the fall. This reduced immediate political risk and temporarily stabilized Netanyahu's position, reflected in market price adjustments.
Israel’s parliament passes budget, allowing Netanyahu to avoid early elections
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The Knesset passed the 2026 state budget in an overnight marathon session, removing the automatic trigger for early elections. Traders saw the budget’s passage as a major boost to Netanyahu’s chances of staying in office, sending the “June 30” probability sharply down from 50 % to 13 % over the next few days.
Netanyahu orders expansion of military operations in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah
December 31 dips to 45%3%
Netanyahu ordered expanded military operations in southern Lebanon to counter Hezbollah rocket fire, reflecting ongoing security challenges that pressured his political standing and influenced market perceptions of his tenure.
Israeli Parliament Approves 2026 State Budget, Averting Snap Elections
June 30 drops to 7%5%
The Knesset passed a defense-heavy 699-billion shekel budget in a marathon overnight session, allowing Netanyahu's government to avoid a automatic snap election that polls predicted he would lose.
Binyamin Netanyahu is down—but not out (The Economist)
June 30 drops to 9%5%
An editorial in The Economist titled “Binyamin Netanyahu is down—but not out” highlighted his waning popularity and fragile coalition, reinforcing a downward trend in the June‑30 “Yes” price that stayed under 10 % through early April.
Israeli parliament approves 2026 state budget, averting early election
June 30 drops to 6%7%
Reuters announced that the Knesset approved the 2026 state budget, averting a snap election. The passage removed the immediate threat of government collapse, causing the June‑30 market odds to slide to single‑digit levels.
Netanyahu coalition passes 2026 state budget, averting early elections
December 31 jumps to 53%11%
Netanyahu's coalition narrowly passed the state budget just before the March 31 deadline, preventing a snap election and temporarily stabilizing his government, which caused a partial rebound in market confidence about his staying power.
Israeli parliament approves 2026 state budget, averting early elections
December 31 jumps to 47%11%
The budget approval removed a key political overhang, allowing Netanyahu's government to continue until fall elections, temporarily stabilizing his position and influencing market prices upward.
Naftali Bennett Vows to Replace Netanyahu and Stay Out of His Government
June 30 rises to 14%3%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly pledged to replace Netanyahu and refused to join any future coalition led by him, highlighting the growing opposition alliance ahead of the budget deadline.
Opposition leader Naftali Bennett vows to replace Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 44%8%
Bennett publicly declared intent to replace Netanyahu and avoid any government led by him, signaling strong opposition momentum ahead of elections and increasing pressure on Netanyahu's tenure.
Naftali Bennett Vows to Replace Netanyahu in Upcoming Elections
December 31 drops to 46%5%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett launched a sharp public attack on Netanyahu, vowing to replace him and rule out joining any future coalition led by him.
Netanyahu’s spokesman Ziv Agmon resigns after racist remarks leak
December 31 rises to 50%2%
Spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigned after leaked racist remarks. The controversy added to the perception of a crumbling inner circle, nudging the ‘December 31’ probability upward modestly in early March.
Former PM Bennett vows to replace Netanyahu
June 30 plunges to 10%16%
Former premier Naftali Bennett publicly pledged to replace Netanyahu, signalling a credible leadership challenge. The statement coincided with a sharp 11‑point drop in the June 30 market on March 9‑11, reflecting rising doubts about Netanyahu’s tenure.
Former PM Naftali Bennett vows to replace Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 44%6%
Bennett publicly declared his intent to replace Netanyahu, signaling strong opposition momentum and increasing political pressure on Netanyahu ahead of elections, impacting market confidence in Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu spokesperson resigns after leaked audio criticizing premier
Netanyahu's spokesperson resigned following leaked audio with harsh criticism of Netanyahu's leadership and handling of the war, signaling internal dissent and weakening Netanyahu's political position, negatively impacting market sentiment.
Netanyahu Spokesperson Ziv Agmon Resigns Following Leaked Audio Scandal
December 31 dips to 46%2%
Netanyahu's spokesperson and acting chief of staff, Ziv Agmon, resigned after leaked private messages revealed him making racist remarks about Mizrahi Likud lawmakers and criticizing Netanyahu's political survival tactics.
Netanyahu's acting chief of staff resigns after racist remarks controversy
December 31 drops to 39%5%
The resignation of Netanyahu's spokesman Ziv Agmon amid racist remarks and internal criticism highlighted turmoil within Netanyahu's administration, undermining his political standing and contributing to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu aide resigns after racist slurs and criticism leak
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The resignation of Netanyahu's acting chief of staff and spokesman Ziv Agmon after revelations of racist slurs and criticism of Netanyahu and his party further eroded confidence in Netanyahu's political stability, impacting market prices.
Netanyahu ally Yuli Edelstein resigns as Knesset Speaker amid Supreme Court pressure
Edelstein's resignation weakened Netanyahu's parliamentary control, signaling political instability and increasing doubts about Netanyahu's hold on power, which negatively impacted the market's confidence in Netanyahu remaining PM by year-end.
Netanyahu aide resigns after leaked scathing criticism and racist remarks
December 31 dips to 39%1%
The resignation of Netanyahu's acting chief of staff and spokesperson following leaked audio with harsh criticism of Netanyahu and racist slurs intensified political pressure and public scrutiny, undermining confidence in Netanyahu's leadership.
Netanyahu's spokesperson resigns after leaked audio reveals scathing criticism
December 31 drops to 36%10%
Ziv Agmon resigned following leaked audio recordings in which he sharply criticized Netanyahu, his family, and his political survival, further damaging Netanyahu's image amid ongoing multi-front wars and internal pressures.
Netanyahu spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked audio reveals scathing criticism of prime minister
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
The scandal damaged Netanyahu's regime reputation, contributing to the market's decline toward May 31 as confidence in Netanyahu's leadership eroded.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss Iran nuclear talks and Gaza ceasefire
December 31 rises to 39%3%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on Iran negotiations and advancing the Gaza ceasefire. The talks underscored Netanyahu's active role in regional diplomacy, temporarily stabilizing market expectations about his tenure.
Netanyahu seeks to avoid snap vote as Iran war gives no boost in polls
June 30 plunges to 14%21%
Reuters reported Netanyahu’s attempts to avoid a snap election while the Iran war failed to improve his poll numbers. The article underscored the growing political vulnerability of his government, prompting a sharp fall in the market’s Yes probability for the June 30 outcome from 50 % to the low‑20s.
Netanyahu’s spokesman resigns after leaked audio of scathing criticism
June 30 plunges to 12%38%
Leaked audio showed Netanyahu’s spokesperson insulting the premier, leading to Agmon’s resignation. The scandal contributed to a sharp drop in the June‑30 price (‑5 pts on Mar 2) as political instability grew.
Netanyahu seeks to avoid snap elections amid ongoing Iran war and budget struggles
December 31 surges to 49%19%
In March 2026, Netanyahu worked to pass the state budget and avoid early elections despite the ongoing war with Iran failing to improve his standing, reflecting political vulnerability and causing market uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked audio reveals scathing criticism
Following leaked remarks criticizing Netanyahu and his party, Ziv Agmon resigned, intensifying political instability and opposition pressure on Netanyahu's government, contributing to market declines in Netanyahu's resignation probability.
Netanyahu aide Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked audio reveals scathing criticism and racist slurs
December 31 rises to 51%3%
Ziv Agmon resigned following publication of leaked remarks criticizing Netanyahu and making racist slurs against Likud lawmakers and Mizrahi Jews. This intensified political pressure on Netanyahu, causing a temporary peak in December 31 outcome probability to 59% before a decline.
Netanyahu races to pass budget to avoid snap elections amid war and political instability
December 31 dips to 47%1%
Facing a fragile coalition and no boost from the Iran war in polls, Netanyahu pushed to pass the state budget to stave off early elections he was likely to lose, temporarily stabilizing his government and market confidence.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked audio reveals scathing criticism
June 30 dips to 12%2%
Ziv Agmon, acting chief of staff and spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, resigned after leaked audio revealed him calling the premier 'finished' and criticizing him for tying the regime's fate to his personal political survival.
Netanyahu's spokesperson resigns after leaked audio reveals scathing criticism
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Following leaked remarks where Agmon called Netanyahu 'finished' and criticized his political survival, Agmon resigned, intensifying internal pressures on Netanyahu amid ongoing conflicts. This event contributed to market declines in Netanyahu's expected tenure, especially for the June 30 outcome.
Netanyahu races to pass 2026 budget to avoid early elections
December 31 drops to 30%9%
Facing a coalition crisis and looming early elections, Netanyahu worked to pass the 2026 state budget by March 31, 2026, as failure would trigger automatic elections, increasing uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu asks spokesman who made racist remarks about Mizrahi Jews to remain in office
December 31 rises to 48%1%
Netanyahu initially asked Agmon to remain after leaked racist comments, reversing his earlier decision to replace him. This showed internal party turmoil and potential instability in Netanyahu's leadership.
Netanyahu races to pass state budget to avoid snap elections amid war and poor polls
December 31 jumps to 44%5%
Facing poor polling and a war with Iran that failed to boost his standing, Netanyahu pushed to pass the 2026 state budget by the March 31 deadline to avoid automatic government dissolution and snap elections, temporarily stabilizing his position.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 rises to 51%3%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, demonstrating his active leadership amid security challenges. This reinforced market views that he was unlikely to resign soon, contributing to price stability for the December 31 outcome.
Netanyahu leans toward fall elections amid ongoing war and political pressures
December 31 jumps to 53%6%
Reports indicated Netanyahu was considering holding elections in September or October, reflecting strategic timing influenced by war outcomes and political survival concerns, affecting market perceptions of his tenure.
Reports debunk claims Netanyahu replaced by interim prime minister
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
In March 2026, misinformation circulated about Netanyahu being replaced by an interim prime minister, but official sources confirmed he remained in office, reinforcing market confidence in his tenure continuing at least through mid-2026.
Polymarket analysis highlights low market pricing of Netanyahu's imminent departure
December 31 drops to 50%6%
Despite social media rumors about Netanyahu's death or resignation, Polymarket's contracts showed only a 4-5% probability of him leaving office imminently, indicating market skepticism about his near-term exit.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
A high‑profile meeting with Donald Trump highlighted Netanyahu’s diplomatic clout but also underscored ongoing security concerns, causing a modest rise in the May‑31 probability as analysts speculated about potential political fallout.
Settler violence surge prompts cabinet meeting on West Bank security
December 31 drops to 39%5%
Escalating settler attacks and international criticism forced Netanyahu to convene a security cabinet, highlighting internal governance challenges and further weakening his perceived stability, nudging the December‑31 price lower.
Netanyahu meets Trump, discusses Iran talks and Gaza progress
December 31 jumps to 46%7%
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump to discuss Iran and Gaza highlighted his active role in regional security and diplomacy, which likely contributed to market confidence in his continued tenure.
Netanyahu says Iran is being decimated, denies dragging U.S. into war
June 30 drops to 12%8%
Netanyahu emphasized military successes against Iran and denied accusations of dragging the U.S. into conflict, reinforcing his leadership image and lowering resignation odds.
Netanyahu holds first in-person news conference since start of Iran war
Netanyahu addressed the media to defend Israel's military actions and regime change goals in Iran, attempting to project strength amid criticism and war fatigue. This event influenced market sentiment by highlighting ongoing challenges to his leadership.
Netanyahu signals readiness to resume war while maintaining ceasefire in Iran
December 31 jumps to 59%12%
During a cabinet meeting, Netanyahu stated fighting continues and Israel is consulting closely with Washington, reflecting ongoing military pressures and political challenges that affected market confidence in his tenure.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing tension with US and Iran
December 31 drops to 31%5%
Netanyahu's decision to attack Iran's South Pars gas field, despite US disapproval, underscored his assertive leadership in regional security, likely reducing market expectations of his resignation soon.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field amid ongoing Iran conflict
June 30 drops to 10%14%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field escalated the conflict, leading to Iranian retaliatory strikes and international concern. The event intensified scrutiny on Netanyahu's leadership and strategy, contributing to market volatility.
Opposition leaders criticize Netanyahu over war outcomes but cautiously support ceasefire talks
December 31 drops to 43%7%
Opposition figures condemned Netanyahu's handling of war efforts and called for his resignation, though some supported his initiative for ceasefire talks with Lebanon. This mixed political pressure contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Viral video sparks rumors of Netanyahu's death amid AI deepfake claims
December 31 jumps to 44%5%
A video of Netanyahu interacting with civilians went viral amid false death rumors, with viewers claiming AI manipulation due to a ring glitch. This event heightened uncertainty about Netanyahu's status but did not indicate resignation, affecting market sentiment.
Israel launches surprise attack on Gaza, postponing Netanyahu's corruption trial testimony
June 30 plunges to 20%30%
The outbreak of renewed conflict delayed Netanyahu's trial proceedings and intensified political tensions, contributing to a decline in market confidence for his resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu debunks death rumors with viral video amid Iran conflict
December 31 dips to 44%1%
Netanyahu appeared in a video alongside US Ambassador Mike Huckabee to refute false death rumors, mocking AI manipulation theories. This reassured markets about his continued leadership amid rising regional tensions with Iran.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, Trump and Netanyahu show public disagreement
December 31 rises to 44%4%
Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field led to a public split between Trump and Netanyahu on the attack’s approval. This discord raised questions about Netanyahu’s political standing but did not indicate imminent resignation, reflected in market price volatility.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite prior criticism
December 31 rises to 48%4%
Netanyahu reversed his earlier stance and agreed to join the Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling continued political engagement and stability. This announcement contributed to a price rebound for the December 31 outcome from 44% to 48%.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing regional tensions
June 30 plunges to 20%30%
Israel launched an attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, escalating tensions and causing a rift between Netanyahu and Trump. This military action raised concerns about regional stability and Netanyahu's political future, reflected in market price volatility.
Opposition leaders demand Netanyahu's resignation after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 rises to 44%4%
Opposition figures publicly called for Netanyahu to admit failure and resign following the ceasefire with Iran, signaling growing political opposition and instability that influenced market perceptions of Netanyahu's tenure.
Israel launches surprise attack on Gaza Strip ending ceasefire
December 31 dips to 36%4%
On March 18, 2026, Israel launched a surprise attack on Gaza, ending the ceasefire and escalating conflict. Netanyahu's leadership during this period was under intense scrutiny, causing market volatility with a trough at 36% for December 31 outcome.
Netanyahu death rumours revived by AI‑deepfake video
December 31 drops to 40%11%
A viral AI‑deepfake video claiming Netanyahu had died sparked a wave of misinformation. Fact‑checking agencies debunked the claim, but the episode added uncertainty about his continuity, pushing the December‑31 contract down to 40 % on 2026‑03‑15 and contributing to the March‑5 to March‑7 swing (+11 pts).
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 40%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing international pressure on his government. This diplomatic push affected market expectations about Netanyahu's political future amid ongoing conflict management challenges.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting ongoing security and diplomatic challenges. Netanyahu's cautious approach signaled his continued political control, influencing market sentiment against near-term resignation.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
June 30 drops to 10%8%
A teenage protester was killed when a bus ran over him during demonstrations against the ultra‑Orthodox draft law, intensifying political pressure on Netanyahu and further lowering the June‑30 and May‑31 odds.
Netanyahu dismisses rumors of his death with a video
June 30 jumps to 20%8%
Netanyahu released a video jokingly denying rumors of his death, countering speculation about his status and stabilizing market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Trump says he ‘insisted’ on continuing U.S.–Iran talks with Netanyahu
June 30 dips to 10%3%
Trump’s public statement that he pressed Netanyahu to keep Iran negotiations alive suggested a possible shift in regional dynamics, dampening confidence in Netanyahu’s leverage and pulling the June‑30 price down further.
Fact-checks debunk viral rumors of Netanyahu's death amid Iran war
December 31 plunges to 13%37%
Rumors claiming Netanyahu had died or been replaced by an AI-generated version circulated widely but were debunked by officials and fact-checkers, confirming Netanyahu was alive and active, which helped stabilize market sentiment against an immediate exit.
Netanyahu posts video to refute death rumors after AI‑generated ‘six‑finger’ clip spreads
June 30 plunges to 21%29%
A viral video showing Netanyahu with six fingers sparked rumors that he had died. Fact‑checkers debunked the claim, but the misinformation wave caused a brief dip in the June‑30 “Yes” probability on 13 Mar (from 50 % to 21 %).
Netanyahu threatens Iran's new supreme leader amid ongoing conflict
December 31 rises to 41%1%
Netanyahu issued veiled threats against Iran's new leadership while acknowledging uncertainty about regime collapse, reflecting ongoing military tensions that influenced market perceptions of his political stability.
Israeli judicial office rejects Netanyahu pardon request
December 31 dips to 36%4%
A key Israeli judicial office declined to recommend pardoning Netanyahu in his corruption trial, stating a pardon would only be appropriate after resignation, confession, or conviction, increasing political pressure on Netanyahu.
Israeli legal office says pardoning Netanyahu now would be improper
December 31 drops to 36%8%
A key Israeli legal office stated Netanyahu's pardon request was unprecedented and should only be granted if he resigns, confesses, or is convicted. This diminished chances of a pardon without resignation, impacting market views on his staying in office.
Israeli legal office rules Netanyahu pardon improper without resignation or conviction
December 31 drops to 43%7%
A key Israeli legal office stated that Netanyahu's pardon request was unprecedented and should only be considered if he resigns, confesses, or is convicted. This legal stance diminished expectations of a pardon and maintained pressure on Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu holds first press conference since war began, asserts strength against Iran and Hezbollah
June 30 plunges to 25%25%
Netanyahu publicly declared Israel was 'crushing' Iran and Hezbollah, projecting confidence and control. This bolstered perceptions of his political strength, reducing likelihood of resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu issues veiled threat to Iran's new supreme leader amid ongoing war
Netanyahu publicly threatened Iran's new supreme leader while acknowledging uncertainty about regime collapse, highlighting ongoing military tensions and political pressure. This maintained market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future amid the war.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
June 30 drops to 10%9%
The revelation that official images of Netanyahu’s wife were heavily retouched sparked a public ethics debate, eroding confidence in the administration and nudging the June‑30 and May‑31 probabilities lower.
Netanyahu announces $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position. This major policy achievement likely bolstered confidence in his political stability and reduced resignation expectations.
Israeli legal office rejects Netanyahu pardon without resignation or conviction
A key Israeli judicial office stated Netanyahu should only be pardoned if he resigns, confesses, or is convicted, increasing legal pressure on him and raising doubts about his political future, negatively impacting market confidence in his tenure.
Netanyahu admits uncertainty over Iran regime change amid ongoing conflict
December 31 jumps to 50%7%
Netanyahu publicly acknowledged doubts about regime change in Iran despite military efforts, reflecting challenges in his strategic goals and possibly affecting market confidence in his political future.
Opposition leaders call for Netanyahu's resignation after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 drops to 36%12%
Following the ceasefire with Iran in March 2026, opposition figures publicly demanded Netanyahu's resignation, increasing political pressure and causing a significant drop in market confidence regarding his staying in office.
Netanyahu faces mounting opposition as Naftali Bennett vows to replace him
December 31 drops to 39%5%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly vowed to replace Netanyahu and stay out of any government led by him, signaling intensified political opposition ahead of elections and contributing to market declines in Netanyahu's tenure odds.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
December 31 rises to 44%4%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address settler violence demonstrated his ongoing governance and crisis management, which likely supported market confidence in his tenure continuing past mid-2026.
Netanyahu joins Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza peace process
May 31 plunges to 1%25%
Netanyahu accepted an invitation to join Trump's Board of Peace, a shift from his previous criticism of the board's composition, signaling a potential change in his approach to the Gaza ceasefire.
Justice Ministry Advises Against Granting Netanyahu a Pardon
December 31 jumps to 41%8%
The Israeli Justice Ministry advised against granting Netanyahu's request for a presidential pardon, keeping his legal vulnerabilities active.
Netanyahu claims elimination of Iran's supreme leader amid ongoing conflict
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu announced the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei during joint US-Israeli operations, escalating the conflict and reinforcing his hardline stance. This military action increased tensions but did not lead to Netanyahu stepping down, affecting market confidence in his political survival.
Netanyahu announces ongoing military campaign against Iran
December 31 jumps to 52%8%
Netanyahu declared a fateful campaign for Israel's existence against Iran, emphasizing military operations. This reinforced his strong leadership stance, temporarily stabilizing market confidence in his position through March.
Netanyahu declares ongoing campaign to protect Israel amid Iran conflict
December 31 rises to 40%1%
In a public statement, Netanyahu framed the conflict with Iran as existential and justified ongoing military actions, aiming to rally public support and assert leadership during the multi-front war.
Netanyahu issues further statement amid ongoing political challenges
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Another statement from Netanyahu aimed to reassure supporters and address criticism, but it did not reverse the downward trend in market confidence regarding his remaining in office through 2026.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing U.S. negotiations with Iran, emphasizing limits on ballistic missiles and militant support. This diplomatic engagement reinforced Netanyahu's active leadership role, reducing market expectations of his imminent resignation.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing US-Israel strategic tensions
June 30 plunges to 23%27%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field led to a public disagreement between Netanyahu and Trump, raising questions about their coordination in the ongoing conflict. This event increased regional instability and may have affected perceptions of Netanyahu's political standing.
Netanyahu spokesman Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist remarks scandal
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Following internal and public pressure, Ziv Agmon resigned, signaling cracks within Netanyahu's inner circle and contributing to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's stability.
Sharp market slide follows ICC prosecutor’s renewed focus on Netanyahu
May 31 plunges to 3%24%
The International Criminal Court’s decision to revisit charges against Netanyahu heightened legal risk, prompting a steep decline for the May‑31 outcome as investors reassessed his political survivability.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu departs for US meeting
Severe flooding in Gaza camps highlighted humanitarian challenges, while Netanyahu’s departure for a US meeting on the ceasefire’s second phase underscored his reliance on external mediation, weakening perceptions of his autonomous authority.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 51%10%
Netanyahu announced the landmark gas agreement, signalling strong economic leadership and bolstering his political standing, which lifted the probability of a December‑31 resignation to 51% from 41%.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The recovery of the last Israeli hostage's remains was hailed by Netanyahu as a significant achievement, reinforcing his leadership during the Gaza ceasefire process. This event saw a sharp price drop for the June 30 outcome from 50% to 13%, indicating reduced market expectations for Netanyahu's resignation by mid-2026.
Israel objects to US‑announced Gaza oversight committee
Israel publicly objected to a White House announcement of leaders who would oversee the next steps in Gaza, highlighting a split with the United States and fueling speculation about Netanyahu’s political stability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
June 30 drops to 13%13%
The landmark gas deal was hailed as a major economic win but also raised questions about Netanyahu’s long‑term political calculus, prompting traders to reassess his resignation risk, especially for the June‑30 outcome.
Knesset legislative calendar compressed as draft law remains critical hinge issue
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The Knesset House Committee decided to cancel plenum sessions due to Purim, compressing the legislative calendar and raising the stakes for the draft law, which remains the critical hinge issue for coalition support.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 40%2%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and potentially stabilizing relations. This positive development likely bolstered confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing U.S. negotiations with Iran and regional security. The meeting reinforced Netanyahu's active role in foreign policy, reducing market expectations of his resignation by mid-2026.
Opposition leaders demand Netanyahu's immediate resignation after Iran ceasefire
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Following a ceasefire with Iran, opposition figures like Yair Golan publicly demanded Netanyahu's immediate resignation, accusing him of failing to reach war objectives.
Netanyahu delivers on ambition to topple Iran's leadership amid war
December 31 drops to 36%7%
Netanyahu launched Operation Roaring Lion targeting Iran's nuclear sites, aiming to bolster his image as a strong leader, but the war's prolonged nature and costs limited political gains.
Netanyahu faces test as Iran crisis widens amid war and political pressure
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Amid ongoing war with Iran and regional instability, Netanyahu's political survival was challenged by military and diplomatic pressures, with polls showing potential electoral defeat, leading to decreased market confidence in his staying power by June 30 and December 31.
Netanyahu meets privately with Donald Trump in White House, tightening US‑Israel alliance
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Reuters reported a closed‑door three‑hour meeting between Netanyahu and former U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House, signalling a deepening alliance and a possible shift toward a more aggressive Iran policy. The news triggered a rapid swing in the market, with the “June 30” probability plunging from 50 % to 13 % on 2026‑03‑03‑04, as traders assessed that a stronger alliance reduced the chance of Netanyahu’s early exit before the end‑year deadline.
Netanyahu's war alliance with Trump faces test amid Iran crisis
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Netanyahu's close alignment with Trump and military actions against Iran were under scrutiny, with polls showing potential electoral defeat, increasing market doubts about his political survival by mid-2026.
Netanyahu's war alliance with Trump faces test as Iran crisis widens
December 31 drops to 44%7%
Reports highlighted challenges in Netanyahu's military campaign against Iran and the strain on his political position despite his close alliance with Trump, contributing to market doubts about his tenure lasting through 2026.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%8%
Netanyahu's government initiated a major military operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, underscoring his active leadership in security matters and delaying any resignation speculation.
Viral Rumors of Netanyahu's Death or Incapacitation Spread Online
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Widespread social media rumors and fake AI-generated videos claiming Netanyahu was dead or hospitalized caused a massive surge in trading volume and a sharp drop in the June 30 exit odds once debunked.
President Herzog Facilitates Preliminary Plea Deal Talks in Netanyahu Corruption Trial
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Israeli President Isaac Herzog initiated preliminary talks between Netanyahu's legal team and state prosecutors to explore a plea deal, which could potentially lead to his resignation or removal before the end of 2026.
Netanyahu-Trump meeting on Iran nuclear talks ends without deal
June 30 plunges to 3%47%
Netanyahu met with Trump at the White House but no definitive agreement was reached on Iran nuclear talks, with Trump insisting negotiations continue but Netanyahu pushing for missile and militant group limits.
Polls show Netanyahu's Likud losing support amid unpopular Iran ceasefire
December 31 drops to 39%5%
Polls released in early March 2026 showed Netanyahu's Likud party losing votes following an unpopular temporary ceasefire with Iran, indicating declining public support and increasing political risk for Netanyahu.
Hamas spokesman killed in Gaza strike, cease‑fire tensions rise
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The confirmed death of a senior Hamas figure heightened fears of renewed fighting, undermining confidence in the cease‑fire and pushing the June 30 price sharply down from 50% to 13% as the market saw a higher chance of a crisis forcing Netanyahu out.
Netanyahu Appears on Fox News to Debunk Widespread Death and Incapacitation Rumors
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Amid escalating military tensions with Iran, viral social media rumors claimed Netanyahu had died or was incapacitated. Netanyahu's live television appearance on Fox News successfully debunked these claims, stabilizing his leadership outlook.
Netanyahu makes public appearance amid Iranian missile strike claims
December 31 drops to 39%11%
Following Iranian missile strike claims targeting Netanyahu’s office, he appeared publicly at a missile strike site, reaffirming his leadership and commitment to security operations. This reassured markets about his continued tenure, though overall resignation odds continued to decline due to ongoing political challenges.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Top U.S. diplomats pressed Netanyahu to advance the cease‑fire, raising expectations that the conflict would de‑escalate, which briefly lifted the June‑30 odds before the market reassessed the difficulty of implementation.
Iran’s president declares full-scale war with West ahead of Netanyahu-Trump meeting
June 30 plunges to 20%30%
Iran’s president stated that Iran is in a full-scale war with the U.S., Israel, and Europe, escalating regional tensions just before Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump. This heightened geopolitical risk coincided with a sharp drop in the June 30 resignation probability from 50% to 20%.
United Torah Judaism rejoins Netanyahu's government after ceasefire collapse
The ultra-Orthodox party rejoined Netanyahu's coalition following the collapse of a ceasefire agreement, temporarily stabilizing his parliamentary support. This event caused a brief increase in market confidence regarding Netanyahu's political survival through mid-2026.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 50%11%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the US-led Board of Peace marked a shift from prior criticism, indicating engagement in peace process efforts and temporarily boosting confidence in his political stability.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump to discuss Iran talks
December 31 plunges to 23%27%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and regional security, reinforcing his active leadership role and reducing market expectations of near-term resignation.
Netanyahu meets US envoy to discuss Gaza ceasefire second phase and Iran
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Netanyahu met with US envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss advancing the Gaza ceasefire's second phase and Iran's threat, reinforcing his role in critical regional diplomacy. This meeting coincided with a sharp price drop for the June 30 outcome from 50% to 13%, reflecting market skepticism about Netanyahu stepping down soon.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Washington on Iran talks
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with Trump to discuss Iran nuclear negotiations underscored ongoing diplomatic challenges and the high-stakes nature of his leadership, affecting market confidence in his tenure.
Netanyahu gives live interview debunking death rumors
December 31 plunges to 45%16%
Netanyahu appeared on Fox News in a live interview, addressing the regional conflict and dismissing rumors of his death, reinforcing his active leadership and countering misinformation that could destabilize his position.
Netanyahu's coalition faces instability as ultra-Orthodox party quits government
June 30 plunges to 18%32%
United Torah Judaism left Netanyahu's coalition over military conscription disputes, weakening his parliamentary majority and increasing political instability. This event contributed to market doubts about Netanyahu's ability to maintain power, affecting June 30 outcome prices.
Israeli press office posts meeting footage to debunk assassination rumors
December 31 dips to 35%3%
The Israeli Government Press Office posted video footage of Netanyahu attending a high‑level security meeting in Tel Aviv, directly refuting viral rumors that he had been killed or had fled the country after the Iran‑Israel strike on 28 Feb. The clarification removed the spectre of his resignation, pushing the market’s “December 31” probability sharply lower (from 38 % on 2026‑02‑21 to 35 % on 2026‑02‑24).
Netanyahu issues official statement amid political tensions
Prime Minister Netanyahu made a public statement addressing ongoing political issues, which temporarily stabilized market sentiment but did not significantly alter expectations of his tenure ending by year-end.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 dips to 40%2%
The military operation to find the last hostage in Gaza underscored Netanyahu's active leadership in security matters, which likely contributed to the market's decline in resignation probability.
Israel and U.S. begin joint air offensive against Iran
December 31 rises to 42%3%
Israel and the United States launched a joint air campaign against Iran, marking an escalation that amplified concerns over Netanyahu’s war leadership and pushed the Yes probability to 42 % (from 39 % a week earlier).
Israel and US launch major air campaign against Iran, escalating regional conflict
December 31 dips to 37%3%
The joint military offensive increased regional tensions and political pressures on Netanyahu's government, affecting market sentiment about his political future amid security challenges.
Israel and US begin major air offensive against Iran
June 30 plunges to 26%24%
Israel launched a major air campaign against Iran, intensifying the regional war and increasing pressure on Netanyahu’s leadership. The heightened conflict contributed to a dip in the June‑30 contract (from 50 % on 2026‑03‑02 to 26 % on 2026‑03‑07).
Netanyahu announces $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 drops to 33%14%
The landmark gas deal was presented as an economic win for Netanyahu, but critics argued it diverted attention from domestic crises, leading the December 31 price to fall from 47% to 33% as market participants doubted its political durability.
Netanyahu faces mounting political pressure after ultra-Orthodox party quits coalition
December 31 dips to 44%3%
The departure of United Torah Judaism from Netanyahu's coalition over conscription disputes weakened his parliamentary majority, increasing speculation about his potential resignation or removal.
Israel opens major air campaign against Iran
June 30 plunges to 18%32%
Israel launched a large‑scale offensive against Iran, intensifying the multi‑front war and raising doubts about Netanyahu’s political longevity, causing the June‑30 market to tumble from 50 % to the low‑20s within days.
Netanyahu announces joint US-Israel attack to remove Iran threat
December 31 drops to 39%6%
Netanyahu publicly stated that Israel and the US launched a joint attack to remove an existential threat posed by Iran, escalating military tensions and impacting political stability, which contributed to a decline in market confidence about his staying power.
Israel and US launch major military offensive against Iran
June 30 plunges to 21%29%
Netanyahu launched a major air campaign against Iran alongside the US, escalating regional conflict and increasing political pressure domestically, contributing to uncertainty about his political future and impacting market prices downward for earlier resignation dates.
Spokesman Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist private messages
December 31 drops to 36%7%
Ziv Agmon resigned following leaked private messages containing racist remarks, intensifying political scandal around Netanyahu's office and further undermining confidence in his leadership.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
December 31 dips to 39%2%
The recovery of the last hostage’s remains was a significant milestone in the Gaza ceasefire process, reinforcing Netanyahu’s leadership and lowering resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 40%3%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, a politically sensitive issue that increased domestic tensions and pressure on his leadership, influencing market sentiment.
Netanyahu announces spokesperson replacement after Likud backlash
June 30 drops to 17%9%
Following criticism from his own party and opposition, Netanyahu reversed his initial decision to keep Ziv Agmon, announcing he would be replaced soon. This event reflected internal party tensions and affected market confidence in Netanyahu's political survival.
Netanyahu announces replacement of embattled spokesman after Likud backlash
July 31 drops to 5%11%
Following criticism from both opposition and Likud members, Netanyahu reversed his earlier decision and announced that Ziv Agmon would be replaced, signaling internal party pressure and instability within Netanyahu's administration. This event contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure, affecting the June 30 and July 31 outcomes.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked racist remarks
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Agmon resigned following leaked audio showing him making derogatory comments about Mizrahi Jews, prompting Netanyahu to initially say he would keep Agmon but later reversed course. This scandal damaged Netanyahu's image and contributed to the market's downward price movement.
Netanyahu's spokesman Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist remarks
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu's acting chief of staff and spokesperson, resigned following leaked derogatory comments about Likud lawmakers, intensifying internal party tensions and public criticism, which contributed to a decline in market confidence for Netanyahu's continued tenure by June 30.
Chief of staff Ziv Agmon resigns amid racist‑remarks scandal
July 31 drops to 6%10%
Netanyahu’s chief of staff and spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigned after racist remarks were leaked. The controversy sparked a spike in speculation about a government crisis, driving the “July 31” probability down sharply from 16 % on 15 June to 6 % on 16 June.
Netanyahu's spokesman Ziv Agmon resigns after racist remarks and criticism of PM
December 31 drops to 39%8%
Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu's spokesman and acting chief of staff, resigned following leaked audio of racist comments and harsh criticism of Netanyahu, highlighting internal fractures and damaging Netanyahu's public image.
Netanyahu says chief‑of‑staff Ziv Agmon will be replaced
December 31 surges to 60%15%
Netanyahu announced that his embattled chief‑of‑staff Ziv Agmon would be replaced after leaked racist remarks, a move aimed at soothing Likud rebels. The announcement halted a decline and nudged the "December 31" probability back up toward 60 %.
Netanyahu spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked private messages criticizing PM
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
Agmon resigned after audio recordings revealed scathing criticism of Netanyahu, including claims Netanyahu should have stepped away from politics after October 7. This caused a significant price drop to 46% on Jan 10, 2026.
Netanyahu's spokesperson resigns amid leaked racist remarks controversy
December 31 drops to 39%5%
The resignation of Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon in February 2026 amid a scandal added to the political challenges facing Netanyahu, reflecting internal party tensions and public relations issues, impacting market sentiment.
Spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked racist comments
June 30 drops to 33%12%
Netanyahu’s chief spokesperson resigned after racist remarks were leaked. The internal scandal weakened Netanyahu’s aura, contributing to the plunge of the June‑30 Yes‑probability from 45 % to 33 % by 28 Feb 2026.
Netanyahu’s chief‑of‑staff Ziv Agmon quits over leaked racist remarks
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The acting chief of staff and spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigned after leaked audio in which he used racist slurs against Mizrahi Jews and criticised Netanyahu. The scandal sparked a sharp loss of confidence in the government, driving the June‑30 “Yes” probability down from 50 % on 2 Mar to 13 % on 5 Mar.
Netanyahu’s spokesman Ziv Agmon resigns after racist comment scandal
July 31 drops to 2%6%
Spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigned after racist remarks were leaked, prompting intense criticism and a perception of instability in the prime‑minister’s office. The resignation coincided with the final plunge of the July‑31 market to its 2‑% low.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist and critical remarks
Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu's acting chief of staff and spokesperson, resigned following leaked private messages containing racist slurs against Mizrahi Jews and harsh criticism of Netanyahu, sparking political fallout and internal party backlash. This event increased perceived instability in Netanyahu's administration, negatively impacting the market's outlook on his tenure.
Netanyahu initially defends embattled spokesman Ziv Agmon after racist remarks leak
December 31 dips to 42%4%
After criticism from opposition and his own party, Netanyahu initially said Ziv Agmon apologized and would remain in his role until a replacement was found, signaling internal party tensions and affecting market confidence in Netanyahu's stability.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist remarks
June 30 dips to 5%2%
Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu's acting chief of staff and spokesperson, resigned after derogatory comments about Mizrahi Jews were leaked, causing political backlash and raising questions about Netanyahu's leadership. This controversy negatively impacted market confidence in Netanyahu's stability in office, particularly for the June 30 outcome.
Netanyahu initially defends then agrees to replace embattled aide Ziv Agmon
December 31 drops to 36%7%
After backlash from his own Likud party and opposition, Netanyahu reversed his initial decision to keep Ziv Agmon, agreeing to replace him. This political turmoil contributed to market uncertainty, reflected in fluctuating prices for the December 31 outcome around late February.
Netanyahu faces backlash for initially retaining embattled aide
After criticism from opposition and Likud party members for keeping Ziv Agmon despite racist remarks, Netanyahu reversed course and announced Agmon would be replaced. This internal party dissent signaled weakening support for Netanyahu, affecting market sentiment.
Netanyahu says leaked aide will be replaced after backlash
December 31 surges to 53%18%
Following the leaked comments, Netanyahu said he would replace Agmon within days, a U‑turn that briefly restored market confidence, reflected in a small rise in the December‑31 price around late February.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist remarks
Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu's spokesperson and acting chief of staff, resigned after derogatory comments about Mizrahi Jews were leaked, causing political controversy and internal party criticism. This event highlighted internal tensions within Netanyahu's administration but had limited direct impact on resignation market prices.
Netanyahu announces replacement for embattled spokesman after backlash
December 31 dips to 43%4%
Following criticism from opposition and Likud members over Ziv Agmon's racist remarks, Netanyahu reversed his initial decision to keep Agmon, announcing he would be replaced soon. This signaled internal party strife and affected market confidence in Netanyahu's stability.
Netanyahu reverses course, orders embattled aide to remain in office after racist remarks scandal
December 31 plunges to 45%16%
Netanyahu initially said he would replace his chief of staff Ziv Agmon after leaked racist comments, but later reversed himself and ordered Agmon to stay until a replacement was found. This backtracking may have initially boosted market confidence in Netanyahu's stability.
Netanyahu announces Indian Prime Minister Modi's upcoming visit to Israel
Netanyahu announced a planned visit by Indian PM Narendra Modi to Israel, aiming to deepen bilateral ties and regional alliances. This signaled ongoing political activity and stability, temporarily supporting Netanyahu's position.
UNRWA compound forcibly entered by Israeli police
Israeli police entered the UNRWA compound in East Jerusalem, intensifying international criticism of Netanyahu’s government and raising the prospect of diplomatic fallout, which pressured the market lower.
Naftali Bennett states he will not sit in government under Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 37%3%
Bennett publicly declared he would not participate in any government led by Netanyahu, signaling a firm opposition stance and increasing political pressure on Netanyahu ahead of elections, contributing to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Court bars Netanyahu's chief of staff from Prime Minister's Office for one week
December 31 dips to 40%4%
The court's restrictive ruling on Netanyahu's chief of staff amid ongoing investigations increased political pressure on Netanyahu's administration but did not directly threaten his position, contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Former PM Bennett says he will not sit in a government led by Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly announced he would not serve under Netanyahu, signalling a possible split in the right‑wing bloc and weakening Netanyahu’s coalition prospects. The news coincided with a small dip in the “December 31” price (from 46 % on 2026‑01‑31 to 42 % on 2026‑02‑09).
Naftali Bennett signals refusal to serve under Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 43%3%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly stated he would not serve in a government led by Netanyahu, signaling political opposition and increasing uncertainty about Netanyahu's hold on power.
Naftali Bennett states Israel needs new leadership, implying Netanyahu should step aside
December 31 dips to 40%4%
Bennett publicly called for new leadership and suggested Netanyahu should step down following the October 7 attacks, reinforcing opposition pressure and affecting market sentiment on Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu faces backlash over racist remarks by spokesman Ziv Agmon
December 31 drops to 43%7%
After leaked racist comments by Netanyahu's spokesman Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu initially kept him in position but later announced he would be replaced, reflecting internal party tensions and public criticism.
Netanyahu spokesman Ziv Agmon makes racist remarks, refuses to resign initially
December 31 dips to 38%2%
Leaked racist comments by Netanyahu's spokesman caused backlash within Likud and opposition, undermining Netanyahu's image and contributing to market declines in his resignation odds.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to accelerate Gaza cease‑fire phase two
June 30 drops to 13%11%
Top U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed for faster implementation of the cease‑fire, signaling increased external pressure on his leadership. The diplomatic push contributed to a decline in the June‑30 resignation probability.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Netanyahu in Jerusalem
December 31 rises to 40%4%
A high‑profile visit by Germany’s chancellor drew media attention to Netanyahu’s foreign‑policy agenda. The diplomatic boost briefly lifted optimism about his political stability, contributing to a modest rise in the “December 31” probability from 36 % to 40 % around late February.
Israel and United States launch major military offensive against Iran
December 31 dips to 43%4%
Netanyahu presided over a major joint air campaign with the US against Iran with the stated goal of regime change, solidifying his wartime leadership role.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
Netanyahu announced his participation in President Trump’s newly‑expanded Board of Peace, a move that alienated far‑right coalition partners and raised doubts about his willingness to compromise on Gaza policy.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 12%31%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, including disarmament of Hamas. Netanyahu’s cautious approach to this sensitive issue suggested political stability and no immediate resignation, impacting market prices downward for earlier resignation dates.
Netanyahu announces replacement of embattled aide after Likud backlash
June 30 drops to 44%6%
Facing criticism from both opposition and his own party, Netanyahu announced that his spokesman Ziv Agmon, who made racist remarks, would be replaced, reflecting internal party strife and weakening Netanyahu's political standing, impacting market sentiment negatively.
Israel and US launch major military offensive against Iran
December 31 drops to 36%6%
Netanyahu led a major air campaign against Iran in February 2026 alongside the US, escalating military conflict and bolstering his position as wartime leader, which reduced market expectations of his resignation.
Netanyahu and Finance Minister shelve controversial reforms to pass budget amid Iran war
December 31 drops to 41%5%
To secure the 2026 state budget and fund the ongoing war with Iran, Netanyahu agreed to temporarily shelve contentious reforms, reflecting political compromises under pressure.
Netanyahu objects to US-led Gaza executive committee composition
December 31 drops to 36%6%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting political tensions but also Netanyahu's active engagement, which maintained his leadership status.
Attorney General summons Netanyahu over classified‑document leak investigation
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
The Attorney General summoned Netanyahu for questioning over a classified‑document leak. The legal pressure contributed to a brief rebound in the June‑30 Yes‑probability (from 33 % to 38 % on 22‑Feb‑2026) before the market slid again.
Netanyahu announces replacement of embattled aide after racist remarks scandal
December 31 drops to 43%7%
After backlash within his party and opposition over racist comments by his spokesman Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu announced Agmon would be replaced, reflecting internal turmoil and weakening his political position.
Netanyahu releases document blaming political rivals amid investigation
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
On February 6, 2026, Netanyahu released a document during a State Comptroller investigation, shifting blame to political rivals and attempting to bolster his image. This event contributed to market uncertainty about his political stability.
Netanyahu releases document defending himself in State Comptroller investigation
Netanyahu's public defense against political rivals in an official investigation aimed to improve his image but also highlighted political tensions, influencing market sentiment about his stability in office.
Netanyahu summoned for police questioning over classified document leak
December 31 drops to 41%6%
In February 2026, Netanyahu was summoned by the Attorney General and Cabinet Legal Advisor to explain an investigation into leaked classified documents, increasing legal pressure on him and affecting market confidence in his tenure.
Netanyahu releases document blaming rivals amid investigation
December 31 drops to 43%8%
On February 6, 2026, Netanyahu released a document during a State Comptroller investigation, portraying himself positively and blaming political rivals. This move was seen as an attempt to consolidate power amid legal pressures, impacting market sentiment on his tenure.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic gas export deal to Egypt reinforced his position as a regional leader, reducing market speculation about his stepping down by mid-2026.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and signaling political stability. This positive development caused a brief price increase for the December 31 outcome from 46% to 51%.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
High‑level U.S. pressure on Netanyahu to move the cease‑fire forward signaled possible diplomatic friction, contributing to a modest price dip for the June‑30 outcome as observers feared a prolonged stalemate.
Netanyahu meets US envoy to set terms for Iran nuclear talks
December 31 jumps to 47%5%
On February 3, Netanyahu met with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Israeli officials to dictate strict terms for upcoming US-Iran nuclear negotiations, emphasizing distrust of Iran. This heightened geopolitical tensions and influenced market perceptions of Netanyahu's political standing.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, sparking US-Israel leadership split
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Israel launched an attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, leading to Iranian retaliation and a public disagreement between Trump and Netanyahu on the strike. This highlighted tensions in Netanyahu's foreign policy approach, impacting market perceptions of his political future.
Security cabinet approves new West Bank settlement measures
December 31 rises to 44%4%
The cabinet’s decision to expand settlement control deepened internal coalition tensions and drew international criticism, prompting a modest rebound in the December 31 price from 40% to 44% as some investors saw a hardening stance that could prolong Netanyahu’s tenure.
Netanyahu defends himself in high-profile corruption trial
December 31 plunges to 46%17%
On February 2, 2026, Netanyahu testified in the Case 4000 corruption trial, denying bribery and favoritism allegations. This legal pressure increased speculation about his political future and potential resignation, impacting market odds.
Netanyahu summoned for police questioning over classified document leak
December 31 drops to 42%14%
In February 2026, Netanyahu was summoned by the Attorney General and Cabinet Legal Advisor to explain an investigation into leaked classified documents, increasing political pressure but not leading to resignation, causing market uncertainty and price volatility.
Netanyahu meets U.S. envoys urging progress on Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 40%7%
U.S. envoys urged Netanyahu to advance the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement and reducing market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down soon.
Netanyahu objects to US-led Gaza peace oversight committee
December 31 drops to 44%6%
Israel, led by Netanyahu, publicly opposed the US announcement of a Gaza ceasefire oversight committee including regional rivals, signaling political friction and complicating peace efforts, which contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Florida amid Iran talks
A high‑profile meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump focused on Iran heightened expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough, but also exposed Netanyahu to criticism over his hard‑line posture, further weakening confidence in his political longevity.
Israel’s Attorney General summons Netanyahu over classified‑document leak probe
June 30 plunges to 1%49%
The Attorney General summoned Netanyahu for questioning about a leaked‑document investigation, renewing media focus on his legal troubles. The development corresponded with a sharp 10‑point fall in the June‑30 probability, pulling it down toward 1‑% levels.
Attorney General summons Netanyahu over classified‑document leak probe
June 30 dips to 4%2%
The Attorney General summoned Netanyahu to explain a classified‑document leak investigation, reviving criminal‑trial pressure and prompting a further plunge in the June‑30 market.
Netanyahu faces police questioning over classified document leak amid Iran war
December 31 drops to 43%5%
In February 2026, Netanyahu was summoned to explain a leak of classified documents, coinciding with Israel's military campaign against Iran, increasing political pressure and causing market uncertainty about his continuation as PM.
Netanyahu launches major air campaign against Iran with US aiming for regime change
December 31 dips to 44%2%
Netanyahu led a significant military offensive against Iran alongside the US, escalating regional conflict and increasing political and security pressures on his government, impacting market perceptions of his tenure.
Israel’s AG summons Netanyahu over classified‑document leak
December 31 plunges to 40%15%
The Attorney General and the cabinet’s legal adviser summoned Netanyahu to explain a leak of classified documents to the German newspaper Bild. The summons heightened pressure on his government and saw the “December 31” probability slip from 55 % to 40 % within weeks.
Israel and US launch major air campaign against Iran
December 31 dips to 43%2%
Netanyahu led a significant military offensive with the US against Iran aiming for regime change, escalating regional conflict and impacting his political standing amid war pressures.
Netanyahu formally requests pardon from President Herzog amid corruption trial
December 31 dips to 57%4%
Netanyahu's formal request for a pardon highlighted the ongoing legal pressures he faced, contributing to political uncertainty and influencing market expectations about his potential resignation.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
December 31 rises to 49%3%
Netanyahu met privately with Trump, emphasizing the need to include ballistic missile limits and militant group support in Iran negotiations. The meeting underscored Netanyahu's active diplomatic role, temporarily supporting his position and affecting market confidence.
Israeli parliament approves 2026 state budget, averting snap election for now
December 31 jumps to 61%5%
The Knesset's initial approval of the 2026 state budget gave Netanyahu a temporary political reprieve by averting immediate early elections, stabilizing his government and reducing short-term resignation speculation.
Israel parliament approves 2026 budget draft, averting early election
Israel's parliament gave initial approval to the 2026 state budget draft, providing Netanyahu with a temporary political reprieve by avoiding an immediate snap election, though the budget still faces difficult approval challenges.
Netanyahu wins Knesset majority for 2026 budget bill
December 31 jumps to 63%7%
Netanyahu secured a majority for the 2026 budget at its first reading, averting an automatic dissolution of parliament. The market’s December‑31 probability rose sharply that week, climbing from the low‑50s to a peak of 63 % on Jan 3 as investors saw the budget as a barrier to a forced resignation.
Netanyahu secures majority for 2026 budget, averting snap elections
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
Netanyahu's government passed the 2026 state budget at first reading, securing support from ultra-Orthodox lawmakers and avoiding early elections, temporarily stabilizing his position as Prime Minister.
Israel parliament gives initial approval for 2026 budget, averting snap election for now
December 31 rises to 47%1%
The Knesset's initial approval of the 2026 budget gave Netanyahu a temporary political reprieve by averting immediate early elections, stabilizing his position and slightly reducing market expectations of his stepping down.
Netanyahu secures majority for budget bill at first reading
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Netanyahu obtained parliamentary backing for the 2026 budget bill, easing immediate political pressure and reducing the likelihood of early elections or resignation. This parliamentary success temporarily strengthened his hold on power, reflected in a price increase before a subsequent decline.
Israel's parliament approves 2026 budget, delaying early elections
December 31 drops to 48%5%
The Knesset gave an initial approval to the 2026 state budget, temporarily averting a snap election that would have forced Netanyahu out. The Yes price fell from 53 % to 48 % over the next week.
Israeli parliament gives initial approval for 2026 budget, averting snap election for now
December 31 rises to 47%2%
The Knesset's initial approval of the state budget provided Netanyahu's government a temporary reprieve from collapse and early elections, stabilizing his position and reducing immediate chances of resignation.
Israeli parliament passes 2026 state budget, averting snap election
December 31 rises to 48%4%
The Knesset approved the first reading of the 2026 state budget despite coalition tensions, temporarily stabilizing Netanyahu's government and reducing immediate risks of early elections, which positively influenced market confidence in his continued premiership.
Netanyahu Secures Majority for 2026 Budget Bill at First Reading
December 31 dips to 45%1%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu successfully passed the first reading of the 2026 state budget bill in the Knesset, temporarily averting an automatic dissolution of parliament and early elections.
Netanyahu emphasizes disarming Hamas before Gaza rebuilding
December 31 jumps to 61%5%
Netanyahu stated that disarming Hamas is a prerequisite for rebuilding Gaza, signaling a hardline stance that affected political dynamics and public opinion.
Netanyahu insists no Gaza rebuild before Hamas disarms, maintains security control
December 31 rises to 47%3%
Netanyahu reaffirmed his hardline stance on Gaza, emphasizing security control and disarmament of Hamas before reconstruction. This demonstrated his continued active leadership and political survival, further lowering market odds of his resignation by year-end.
Ultra-Orthodox faction announces it will no longer see Netanyahu as partner and will seek early election
June 30 plunges to 3%46%
This pivotal political move directly threatened Netanyahu's coalition, causing the market to shift from December 31 to June 30 and May 31 outcomes as early elections became likely.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 47%8%
US envoys met Netanyahu urging progress on Gaza ceasefire's next phase, but Netanyahu faced pressure to wait for hostage remains, reflecting ongoing political challenges without signs of stepping down.
Israel’s security cabinet approves measures to strengthen West Bank control
December 31 dips to 44%4%
Netanyahu's security cabinet approved policies to deepen Israeli control over the West Bank, signaling continued hardline governance. This move likely decreased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down, as it showed his government’s firm stance on key issues.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Netanyahu agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, signaling engagement in international peace efforts and possibly stabilizing his political position. This was associated with a rebound in the December 31 resignation probability from 45% to 51%.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 48%3%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt signaled his continued active leadership and strengthened Israel's regional position, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu accepts Trump’s invitation to join ‘Board of Peace’
December 31 rises to 46%2%
On January 21, 2026, Netanyahu accepted U.S. President Donald Trump's invitation to join the 'Board of Peace,' signaling his active role in international peace efforts and possibly bolstering his political standing, which may have tempered market expectations of his stepping down.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace signaled his commitment to the ceasefire process and regional diplomacy, which likely reduced market expectations of his imminent resignation by June 30.
Israeli ministers decide to keep Rafah crossing shut, defying US pressure
December 31 dips to 44%2%
The decision to keep the Rafah crossing closed despite US pressure highlighted Netanyahu's contentious regional policies and strained international relations, contributing to political instability and uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu meets Trump in US amid regional military tensions
December 31 drops to 43%5%
Netanyahu held talks with US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss regional security concerns, including potential Israeli military actions and Iran's nuclear program. This meeting underscored Netanyahu's focus on political survival and maintaining US support, influencing market perceptions of his tenure.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida, discusses Iran and Gaza
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran nuclear talks and Gaza ceasefire progress. Trump reiterated support for Netanyahu and called for his pardon amid ongoing corruption trials, reinforcing Netanyahu's political standing and reducing resignation expectations.
Netanyahu recovers remains of last Israeli hostage in Gaza
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu announced the recovery of the remains of the last Israeli hostage in Gaza, marking a significant milestone in the ceasefire process. While a positive development, Netanyahu reaffirmed that disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza remain critical next steps, with no indication of his resignation, stabilizing market expectations.
Israel objects to U.S. announcement on Gaza reconstruction committee
December 31 dips to 44%4%
On January 17, 2026, Netanyahu's office publicly objected to the U.S. announcement of a Gaza executive committee not coordinated with Israel, highlighting tensions with allies and internal political challenges, which may have contributed to market uncertainty about his political future.
Netanyahu meets security chiefs over West Bank settler violence
Netanyahu convened a cabinet meeting to address a surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, signalling a hard‑line stance that risked further alienating moderate partners and deepening political strain, contributing to a price dip.
Opposition leaders demand Netanyahu's resignation after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 drops to 50%13%
Following a ceasefire with Iran, opposition figures publicly criticized Netanyahu for failing to meet war objectives and called for his immediate resignation, intensifying political challenges. This led to a notable drop in market confidence for Netanyahu's continuation as Prime Minister by mid-2026.
Netanyahu secures majority for 2026 budget bill at first reading
On January 15, 2026, Netanyahu secured a parliamentary majority to pass the 2026 budget bill at first reading, averting immediate elections and demonstrating political stability, which likely reduced market expectations of his imminent resignation.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 drops to 48%14%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint amid rising tensions, reflecting ongoing domestic challenges but no indication of resignation, maintaining market stability.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 44%6%
US envoys met Netanyahu urging progress on Gaza ceasefire's next phase, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts and Netanyahu's continued leadership, which tempered resignation expectations.
Netanyahu convenes security cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu's active role in managing escalating settler violence and security issues in the West Bank demonstrated his continued leadership and control over internal affairs, which likely decreased market expectations of his resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
The landmark energy agreement was presented as a boost to Israel’s economy and regional standing, temporarily lifting market optimism for the December‑31 outcome before subsequent political setbacks resumed the decline.
Opposition calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate scandal
December 31 drops to 46%14%
Former PM Naftali Bennett publicly demanded Netanyahu's resignation amid allegations of a cover-up in the Qatargate affair, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 rises to 46%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, including demilitarization and troop withdrawals. Netanyahu faced pressure but also conditions such as hostage remains return, reflecting complex security and political dynamics that influenced market sentiment.
Hostage survivors demand Netanyahu form state inquiry or resign
December 31 drops to 45%6%
Over 200 former hostages and bereaved families issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu to authorize an independent state commission of inquiry or resign, intensifying domestic calls for accountability and increasing doubts about his political future.
Polls show Netanyahu likely to lose upcoming elections amid ongoing challenges
December 31 drops to 44%7%
Reports indicated Netanyahu was facing mounting political challenges and was likely to lose the October 2026 elections, reflecting diminished public support and increasing pressure. This contributed to market uncertainty and fluctuating resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
Following the death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence, demonstrating his active leadership amid domestic tensions. This event likely contributed to market uncertainty about his political stability, causing a price drop for the December 31 outcome from 61% to 46%.
Netanyahu meets Donald Trump in Florida, discusses Iran talks
December 31 drops to 45%6%
Netanyahu’s high‑profile meeting with Trump in Florida raised expectations of a U.S.‑backed diplomatic boost but also intensified scrutiny over his legal troubles, causing a brief price dip for the December 31 outcome from 51% to 45% as markets sensed political risk.
Coalition advances bill to cancel Netanyahu's criminal charge amid trial
The governing coalition advanced legislation aimed at repealing the criminal charge Netanyahu faces, demonstrating political support that reduces the likelihood of his resignation before year-end despite ongoing legal battles.
Poll shows Netanyahu’s firm grip on Likud despite legal challenges
December 31 rises to 48%2%
A Likud party poll indicated Netanyahu's continued dominance and no viable successor, reinforcing his political position and contributing to a slight recovery in market confidence that he would not resign by year-end.
Coalition advances bill to repeal criminal charge Netanyahu faces in trial
December 31 dips to 45%1%
The governing coalition advanced legislation to repeal the fraud and breach of trust charges against Netanyahu, seen as an attempt to weaken the legal case and bolster his political survival, impacting market confidence negatively.
Netanyahu calls for calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 dips to 46%2%
Following the death of an ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu urged restraint to prevent further violence. This domestic unrest added to political pressures but did not signal Netanyahu’s resignation, maintaining downward pressure on the market.
Netanyahu announces aim to reduce Israeli reliance on US military aid within a decade
December 31 rises to 46%2%
In an interview, Netanyahu revealed plans to taper off Israeli dependence on US military aid, signaling a strategic shift but also reflecting his intent to maintain power and control. This announcement coincided with some market recovery in resignation probability as it showed Netanyahu's continued active leadership.
Netanyahu's Chief of Staff Tzachi Braverman Detained Over Leaked Military Documents
December 31 drops to 43%7%
Tzachi Braverman was detained by police on suspicion of obstructing an investigation into the leak of classified military intelligence to a German tabloid, intensifying legal scrutiny on Netanyahu's inner circle.
Netanyahu Faces Opposition Backlash Over War Outcomes and Calls for Resignation
June 30 plunges to 6%44%
Opposition leaders criticized Netanyahu for failing to achieve war objectives and called for his immediate resignation, increasing political pressure and reducing market confidence in his tenure past June 30.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address rising settler violence highlighted ongoing internal challenges, maintaining uncertainty about his political future and contributing to market volatility around 46-50%.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 45%1%
Top US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including disarmament of Hamas and reconstruction. The pressure highlighted ongoing challenges and Netanyahu’s central role, but no indication of resignation, contributing to market decline in his stepping down probability.
Netanyahu rings in 2026 with Trump, signaling political endurance
Netanyahu attended Trump's New Year's Eve party at Mar-a-Lago, showing close ties with the US President and suggesting political strength despite scandals. This likely contributed to the market stabilizing around a lower probability of resignation.
Netanyahu declares intention to taper off U.S. military aid to zero within a decade
December 31 drops to 53%9%
In an interview with The Economist, Netanyahu announced plans to phase out Israel's reliance on the $3.8 billion annual U.S. military aid package, signaling a major shift in defense policy and sparking domestic and international debate.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 dips to 46%1%
Netanyahu announced his agreement to join the Trump-led Board of Peace, a body intended to oversee Gaza ceasefire implementation and broader peace efforts. This move showed Netanyahu's continued political engagement and influence, which likely decreased market expectations of his resignation by the end of 2026.
Netanyahu tries to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 drops to 46%7%
Following the death of a teenage protester during ultra-Orthodox demonstrations, Netanyahu called for calm amid rising internal tensions, which contributed to a decline in market confidence about his remaining in office, reflected in a drop to 46%.
Netanyahu's pardon request fails to quell resignation calls, market confidence drops
December 31 drops to 46%9%
Despite Netanyahu's pardon request and public denials of wrongdoing, opposition and public skepticism persisted, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence about his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu states goal to end US military aid to Israel within a decade
In an interview, Netanyahu expressed a long-term strategic goal, reflecting his ongoing leadership ambitions and no indication of stepping down, reinforcing market sentiment against resignation by year-end.
Cabinet meeting on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 dips to 44%2%
Netanyahu convened a security cabinet to address escalating settler attacks, highlighting internal security challenges and straining coalition partners, which further depressed confidence in his stability.
Ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest, Netanyahu urges calm
December 31 plunges to 45%18%
Following the death of a teenage boy during ultra-Orthodox protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal political tensions, contributing to a decline in market confidence regarding Netanyahu's tenure.
Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
December 31 plunges to 45%16%
The delay by President Herzog in deciding on Netanyahu's request to halt his corruption trial represented a political setback, increasing uncertainty but not indicating imminent resignation, contributing to a sharp market drop in resignation probability.
Modi and Netanyahu discuss strengthening India-Israel strategic partnership
On January 7, 2026, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held talks to deepen bilateral ties, signaling Netanyahu's continued active leadership and international engagement, which likely supported market confidence in his staying in office.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges Netanyahu faced, contributing to market doubts about his stepping down by June 30.
US plans to start 2nd phase of Gaza deal before Hamas disarmed, last hostage's body returned
December 31 plunges to 44%17%
Despite US pressure to advance the Gaza peace plan, Netanyahu delayed reopening the Gaza crossing until the last hostage's remains were returned, reflecting his cautious approach and affecting market sentiment.
Ultra-Orthodox boy killed during protest against military draft law
December 31 plunges to 47%16%
A teenage ultra-Orthodox boy was killed by a bus during protests against a law to draft ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military, escalating tensions. Netanyahu urged calm, but the incident highlighted political challenges for his government, affecting perceptions of his stability in office.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 plunges to 45%17%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted domestic tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu, impacting market perceptions of his stability in office.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
December 31 drops to 47%12%
Israel's government publicly objected to the White House's announcement of an executive committee to oversee Gaza's next phase, stating it was not coordinated with Israel and contrary to its policy. This indicated tensions between Netanyahu's government and US-led ceasefire efforts, reducing confidence in Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Netanyahu's chief of staff released under restrictions after police interrogation
December 31 plunges to 43%15%
Tzachi Braverman, Netanyahu's chief of staff, was released from police custody with conditions including a ban on contacting Netanyahu. This event highlighted ongoing investigations and legal pressures on Netanyahu's office, contributing to a sharp market price drop for his resignation probability.
Former PM Bennett calls for Netanyahu's immediate resignation over Qatargate
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu of covering up the Qatargate scandal, calling it the most serious act of treason in Israeli history and demanding his immediate resignation. This intensified political pressure contributed to a sharp drop in market optimism about Netanyahu remaining in office.
Sharp market drop amid rising internal tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu
December 31 plunges to 44%16%
The market dropped sharply to 44% as internal Israeli political tensions, including settler violence and opposition to ceasefire arrangements, increased pressure on Netanyahu's government, raising doubts about his long-term hold on power.
Retouched government photos of Netanyahu's wife ignite ethics controversy
December 31 dips to 43%4%
Official government distribution of heavily retouched photos of Netanyahu and his wife Sara sparked a major ethics debate about truth and record-keeping in state communications.
Fourteen-Year-Old Killed by Bus During Massive Haredi Anti-Draft Protest in Jerusalem
December 31 drops to 48%14%
A tragic death during a massive ultra-Orthodox demonstration against military conscription severely inflamed domestic tensions, threatening the stability of Netanyahu's governing coalition.
Court reinstates ban on Netanyahu aide's contact amid Qatargate investigation
December 31 plunges to 44%15%
A court ruling restricting Netanyahu's aide from communication and work in the Prime Minister's Office amid the Qatargate investigation highlighted ongoing legal troubles surrounding Netanyahu's administration, increasing political uncertainty.
Prime Minister Netanyahu vows to remain in office through end of term
December 31 surges to 61%16%
Netanyahu’s New Year address stressed that he would “stay until the end of the term,” temporarily halting speculation of a resignation and pushing the market’s Yes‑probability for the December 31 outcome back up to the low‑50s.
Court reinstates ban on Netanyahu aide Urich amid Qatargate probe
December 31 drops to 53%8%
The Lod-Central District Court reinstated restrictions on Jonatan Urich, a key suspect in the Qatargate investigation, prohibiting him from communicating with Netanyahu or working in the Prime Minister's Office. This heightened scrutiny on Netanyahu's inner circle amid corruption allegations, negatively impacting market confidence in his staying power.
Netanyahu rules out resigning in exchange for pardon amid corruption trial
December 31 plunges to 47%15%
Netanyahu publicly rejected calls to resign in exchange for a pardon in his ongoing corruption trial, reinforcing his intent to remain in office despite legal and political challenges, which caused a market drop in resignation odds.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 46%13%
A bus ran over 14‑year‑old Yosef Eisenthal during protests against a draft law, prompting Netanyahu to call for calm. The incident highlighted domestic unrest and weakened Netanyahu’s political standing, driving the December 31 price down from 59% to 46%.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 plunges to 43%16%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges Netanyahu faced, likely contributing to a drop in market confidence about his resignation.
Netanyahu's controversial Mossad chief appointment sparks internal dissent
December 31 drops to 45%12%
Netanyahu appointed Major General Roman Gofman as Mossad chief, bypassing experienced candidates and triggering threats of mass resignations within the agency. This internal political turmoil added to doubts about Netanyahu's leadership stability.
Benjamin Netanyahu meets Donald Trump in US amid regional tensions
December 31 drops to 47%13%
Netanyahu's fifth visit to meet Trump in Florida focused on securing US support against Iran and regional threats, reinforcing his political standing and alliance with Trump, which was seen as crucial for his survival ahead of upcoming elections. This meeting influenced market sentiment by suggesting Netanyahu's continued grip on power.
Coalition advances bill to cancel criminal charge against Netanyahu
December 31 drops to 53%8%
The governing coalition pushed legislation to repeal the criminal charge Netanyahu faces, seen as an attempt to circumvent his trial. This move raised concerns about judicial independence and political stability, contributing to a market price drop.
Netanyahu appoints Military Secretary as Mossad chief amid criticism
December 31 dips to 46%3%
Netanyahu's appointment of Major General Roman Gofman as Mossad chief sparked internal agency criticism and resignation threats, reflecting political turmoil and challenges to his leadership, which influenced market sentiment.
Netanyahu's spokesman makes racist remarks, controversy ensues
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
Netanyahu asked his spokesman, who made racist comments about Mizrahi Jews, to remain in office temporarily, sparking backlash and internal party criticism, contributing to political instability and market uncertainty about Netanyahu's position.
Netanyahu calls for restraint after teen death sparks nationwide protests
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
Netanyahu’s public appeal for calm was seen as a reaction to mounting pressure, suggesting his grip on power was weakening. The statement further eroded market confidence in his staying power, contributing to a drop in the December‑31 outcome price.
Ultra‑Orthodox protest turns deadly as bus runs over teen
A protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews ended with a 14‑year‑old boy killed by a bus, prompting Netanyahu to call for calm. The incident underscored growing domestic unrest and threatened coalition stability, nudging the market lower.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protests
Netanyahu's public response to internal tensions and protests highlighted his active role in managing domestic challenges, which likely contributed to market confidence that he would remain in office through the year-end.
Netanyahu praises Trump’s firm stance on Gaza, Iran, and Venezuela
December 31 drops to 53%8%
Netanyahu publicly supported US President Trump’s uncompromising positions on Hamas disarmament, Iran’s nuclear program, and US actions in Venezuela, reinforcing his alliance with Trump and signaling continued hardline policies. This bolstered confidence in Netanyahu’s political survival in the short term.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
A teenage yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during massive protests against a proposed draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, intensifying public pressure on Netanyahu’s coalition partners.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest bus accident
December 31 plunges to 46%16%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over protesters opposing a draft law, and Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted growing domestic tensions, causing markets to doubt his political stability and pushing the “December 31” price sharply lower.
Preliminary plea deal talks begin amid Netanyahu's corruption trial
June 30 rises to 5%1%
Israeli President Isaac Herzog facilitated talks between Netanyahu's legal team and prosecutors exploring a plea deal in his ongoing corruption trial. This development increased market speculation about Netanyahu's potential resignation or removal before the end of 2026, slightly boosting the odds for a near-term exit.
Netanyahu meets with US President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 dips to 46%4%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing US negotiations with Iran, signaling Netanyahu's active role in foreign policy and reducing market expectations of his resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 plunges to 46%16%
Netanyahu's call for restraint following the death of a teenage boy during ultra-Orthodox protests highlighted ongoing domestic tensions but showed his active governance, which likely supported market confidence in his remaining in office.
Netanyahu returns to Israel after meeting Trump amid ongoing political challenges
December 31 drops to 45%14%
Netanyahu's return from the US after multiple meetings with Trump underscored his continued political activity and resilience despite pressures, with no resignation announced, contributing to market decline in resignation probability.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 dips to 60%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement and reducing speculation about Netanyahu stepping down, keeping market prices around 60%.
Netanyahu returns from US visit with Trump amid ongoing political challenges
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Netanyahu returned to Israel after meeting US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump praised Netanyahu's handling of the Gaza ceasefire. Despite this support, domestic protests and political challenges persisted, maintaining market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu attends New Year’s Eve party with Trump amid ongoing political challenges
December 31 dips to 62%1%
Netanyahu's public appearance with Trump at Mar-a-Lago underscored his continued political alliances despite growing domestic and international pressures, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about his political future.
Netanyahu rings in 2026 with Trump at Mar-a-Lago New Year’s Eve party
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Netanyahu's public appearance with Trump at a high-profile event underscored his continued political relevance and support from key allies, despite ongoing scandals and calls for resignation, contributing to market price stability around 63%.
Netanyahu admits responsibility for October 7 Hamas attack at Trump's New Year's Eve party
December 31 plunges to 46%17%
At a joint New Year's Eve celebration with Trump, Netanyahu conceded he bears responsibility for the October 7 Hamas attack, a significant public admission that likely contributed to market skepticism about his continued leadership.
AG to top court: Netanyahu must explain why he hasn’t fired Ben‑Gvir
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
The Attorney General filed a petition to the Supreme Court demanding that Netanyahu explain why he has not dismissed Ben‑Gvir over alleged abuse of office. The filing heightened expectations of an internal crisis and a possible resignation, driving the market up from 46 % to 53 % within two days.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing political pressure on him. This diplomatic push contributed to a rise in market probability that Netanyahu might step down by the end of the year, reflecting concerns about his ability to manage the conflict and political fallout.
Netanyahu meets with Evangelical leaders in Florida, signaling continued political activity
December 31 rises to 62%1%
On December 31, Netanyahu engaged with influential community leaders in Florida, demonstrating his ongoing active role in politics and no indication of stepping down before year-end.
Netanyahu attends public events in Florida, signaling no resignation
December 31 rises to 63%2%
On December 31, Netanyahu was active in public engagements in Florida, meeting with Jewish communal leaders and Evangelical Christian leaders, signaling his continued political activity and no indication of resignation, which aligned with the market's steady probability around 61-63%.
Israeli families of captives protest against Netanyahu government’s inaction
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
Thousands of Israeli settlers and families of captives protested in Tel Aviv demanding immediate action to return hostages from Gaza and called for Netanyahu's resignation, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction and increasing political pressure on the prime minister.
Israeli President denies Trump’s claim Netanyahu pardon is imminent
December 31 dips to 62%1%
Israeli President Isaac Herzog's office denied former US President Trump's claim that Netanyahu's pardon was 'on its way,' underscoring the uncertainty around Netanyahu's legal and political future. This maintained market prices around 62%, reflecting ongoing doubts about Netanyahu stepping down soon.
Israeli police forcefully enter UNRWA compound in Jerusalem
December 31 plunges to 44%17%
Police entered the UN agency’s Jerusalem compound, escalating criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of international institutions and sparking debate over his leadership, which contributed to a sharp price decline for the December‑31 resignation scenario in early January.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
The release of heavily retouched official images of Netanyahu’s wife raised questions about transparency and governance, weakening public trust and prompting speculation that political pressure could force a resignation before year‑end.
Trump announces Gaza 'day after' plan following Netanyahu meeting
December 31 dips to 60%2%
On December 30, Trump informed Netanyahu of his plan to unveil a Gaza peace initiative on January 15, 2026, including an international oversight body. This development indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts but did not signal Netanyahu's resignation, maintaining market uncertainty.
US President Trump to unveil Gaza 'day after' plan on January 15, 2026
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Trump informed Netanyahu of his plan announcement including an international oversight body, signaling external pressures and diplomatic developments that could affect Netanyahu's standing but no resignation was announced.
Trump Claims Netanyahu Pardon Is 'On Its Way' as Herzog's Office Issues Denial
December 31 rises to 63%2%
During a high-profile meeting at Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump claimed that Israeli President Isaac Herzog told him a pardon for Netanyahu was imminent, which Herzog's office immediately and publicly disputed.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss ceasefire and Iran war strategy
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss the fragile Gaza ceasefire and ongoing conflict with Iran, emphasizing continued military objectives. The meeting underscored Netanyahu's focus on security issues over political survival, affecting market perceptions of his tenure stability.
Netanyahu meets Trump; Trump says Netanyahu pardon 'on its way'
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Netanyahu's meeting with US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago was marked by Trump's public assertion that a presidential pardon for Netanyahu was forthcoming, boosting Netanyahu's political standing and market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
US President Trump to announce Gaza 'day after' plan on January 15, 2026
December 31 drops to 53%7%
Trump informed Netanyahu of his plan to unveil an international oversight body for Gaza on January 15, 2026. Israeli officials noted Netanyahu could not oppose this, highlighting external pressures and complex governance challenges Netanyahu faces, which influenced market perceptions of his political stability.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid US frustration over Gaza ceasefire and regional tensions
December 31 rises to 61%1%
Netanyahu's fifth meeting with Trump in 2025 highlighted tensions between Israel and the US over Gaza ceasefire progress and regional policies. Despite US impatience, Netanyahu sought to strengthen his political position, which tempered market expectations of his stepping down.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss Middle East peace
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Netanyahu held a high-profile meeting with US President Donald Trump in Florida to discuss regional security and the Gaza peace plan, demonstrating his continued central role in diplomacy. This engagement bolstered market confidence, pushing prices higher near year-end.
Trump claims Netanyahu pardon 'on its way'; Israeli president disputes
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
US President Donald Trump stated that Israeli President Herzog told him a pardon for Netanyahu was forthcoming, boosting market optimism for Netanyahu's political survival. However, Herzog's office quickly denied this claim, creating uncertainty and volatility in the market.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida amid regional tension
December 31 jumps to 61%5%
Netanyahu’s meeting with former President Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago was reported as a signal of continued US‑Israeli alignment, temporarily boosting confidence that the coalition would hold. The December‑31 contract rose from 56 % to 61 % between 2025‑12‑19 and 2025‑12‑27.
Netanyahu faces mounting political and legal challenges ahead of 2026 elections
December 31 dips to 60%1%
Reports highlighted Netanyahu's advancing criminal trial and political difficulties, including unfavorable polls and tensions with the US, contributing to market skepticism about his ability to remain in office through 2026.
Netanyahu meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago amid stalled Gaza ceasefire and regional tensions
December 31 rises to 62%1%
On December 29, 2025, Netanyahu held crucial talks with US President Donald Trump focusing on Gaza ceasefire phase two and regional security threats, including Iran and Hezbollah. The meeting underscored Netanyahu's active leadership but highlighted US frustration with delays, impacting market perceptions of his political stability.
Netanyahu meets President Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago, reassuring coalition partners
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Netanyahu met President Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago, reinforcing his political standing and briefly boosting confidence in his staying in office, which helped the “December 31” odds recover to the low‑50 % range in early January 2026 after previous declines.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid tensions over peace process and military campaigns
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Netanyahu's December 29, 2025 meeting with Trump highlighted growing US impatience over his handling of peace efforts and military actions. This underscored political pressures but did not directly signal resignation, causing market fluctuations.
Netanyahu to meet U.S. President Trump to discuss Gaza ceasefire future steps
December 31 rises to 63%1%
Netanyahu scheduled a meeting with Trump to discuss the next phases of the Gaza ceasefire and international stabilization efforts. The ongoing challenges and political pressures surrounding the ceasefire and Gaza reconstruction contributed to market optimism about Netanyahu potentially stepping down by year-end.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid strained peace plan and political pressure
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
Netanyahu's fifth meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago occurred amid tensions over Middle East strategy and Netanyahu's political challenges, reinforcing his intent to remain in office despite mounting difficulties, which influenced market sentiment.
Trump announces Gaza 'day after' plan, signaling Netanyahu's limited influence
December 31 rises to 63%3%
US President Trump informed Netanyahu of his plan to unveil a Gaza 'day after' strategy on January 15, 2026, including an international oversight body. Israeli officials noted Netanyahu could not object, indicating diminished political leverage and contributing to market uncertainty.
Trump says Netanyahu pardon 'on its way'; Herzog's office disputes it
December 31 rises to 63%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump claimed a pardon for Netanyahu was forthcoming, boosting market optimism about Netanyahu's ability to remain in office. However, the Israeli president's office quickly disputed this, maintaining uncertainty.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Washington to discuss Gaza ceasefire and Iran talks
December 31 rises to 62%1%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on advancing the Gaza ceasefire and addressing Iran's nuclear program, demonstrating his active role in regional diplomacy and security, which likely bolstered confidence in his continued leadership.
Netanyahu faces mounting political challenges ahead of 2026 elections
December 31 rises to 63%3%
Reports highlighted Netanyahu's difficult political position with upcoming elections, ongoing corruption trial, and tensions with the US, contributing to market uncertainty about his political future and potential resignation.
Netanyahu Meets Trump Administration Officials in Florida to Discuss Gaza Peace Plan
December 31 rises to 62%2%
Netanyahu traveled to Florida to meet with Donald Trump and key administration officials, reinforcing his international standing and alignment with the incoming U.S. administration.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid regional tensions and Gaza peace plan
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago highlighted ongoing diplomatic efforts and tensions, with Trump pushing a Gaza peace plan and Netanyahu discussing regional security. The meeting underscored Netanyahu's active political role and intent to continue leading.
Netanyahu faces mounting political pressure but refuses to resign
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Despite increasing political challenges including his ongoing corruption trial and opposition pressure, Netanyahu remained defiant about resigning, signaling his intent to contest upcoming elections. This stance helped the market price recover and rise to 63% by early January 2026.
Netanyahu faces mounting pressure with critical decisions ahead
December 31 rises to 63%2%
As 2025 closed, Netanyahu confronted multiple challenges including his advancing criminal trial, political opposition, and looming elections, which kept market expectations for his resignation elevated but uncertain, reflected in a moderate price increase by year-end.
Trump backs Netanyahu, warns Hamas after Florida meeting
December 31 rises to 63%2%
President Trump warned Hamas and praised Netanyahu during a meeting in Florida, reinforcing US support for the Israeli leader. The endorsement helped stabilize market sentiment after earlier volatility, contributing to the modest rise from 61% to 63% on Jan 2, 2026.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid fears of Israeli regional offensives
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Netanyahu's fifth visit to Trump in 2025 was marked by mutual praise and discussions on Gaza peace plan and regional security, reinforcing Netanyahu's political position and possibly reducing immediate resignation speculation.
Netanyahu faces mounting pressure amid advancing corruption trial and election polls
December 31 rises to 63%2%
As Netanyahu's corruption trial progressed and polls indicated likely defeat in upcoming elections, pressure mounted from all sides, including his own political base. This contributed to a market rise reflecting increased chances of resignation by year-end 2026.
Trump announces January 15 Gaza 'day after' plan, signaling pressure on Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 63%2%
US President Donald Trump informed Netanyahu of a forthcoming Gaza peace plan announcement, including an international oversight body. This development highlighted external pressures on Netanyahu's leadership amid ongoing conflicts and legal challenges, contributing to market uncertainty.
Trump presents united front with Netanyahu during Mar-a-Lago meeting
December 31 rises to 61%1%
Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump in Florida, projecting a strong alliance and easing immediate diplomatic pressures that could threaten his premiership.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid rising political and legal pressures
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu met with former US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago as his criminal trial advanced and political base pushed for controversial policies, signaling a challenging year ahead. This meeting highlighted Netanyahu's precarious position, influencing market sentiment on his tenure lasting through 2026.
Netanyahu visits Trump amid diverging US-Israel regional strategies
December 31 dips to 62%1%
Netanyahu's December 29 visit to Trump at Mar-a-Lago underscored growing differences over regional policies, especially regarding Gaza and Iran, with US officials expressing frustration over Israeli actions, adding to political pressure on Netanyahu.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid stalled Gaza peace plan and US frustration
December 31 dips to 61%1%
Netanyahu held a high-profile meeting with US President Trump in Florida to discuss Gaza peace efforts and regional security, with reports of US frustration over Netanyahu's handling of the ceasefire and peace process. This meeting influenced market optimism about Netanyahu's political future and potential pressures.
Trump rebukes Netanyahu over Lebanon strategy at Mar‑a‑Lago meeting
June 30 plunges to 6%17%
Netanyahu met Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago, where Trump reportedly rebuked him over the Lebanon conflict. The confrontation raised doubts about Netanyahu’s regional strategy and pushed the June‑30 Yes‑probability down to a low single‑digit (≈6 %) by early March 2026.
Netanyahu holds talks with Trump amid regional tensions
December 31 surges to 74%26%
Netanyahu met with former US President Donald Trump to discuss Israel's regional security concerns and military strategies, aiming to strengthen his political position ahead of upcoming elections.
Trump Welcomes Netanyahu to Mar-a-Lago, Presenting a United Front
December 31 dips to 61%1%
U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Netanyahu in Florida, praising him as a 'hero' and showcasing a strong alliance, which significantly boosted Netanyahu's political standing back home.
Netanyahu to meet Trump to discuss Gaza ceasefire and future steps
December 31 rises to 62%1%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with U.S. President Trump to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and its next phases signaled his continued active leadership role, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
UNRWA compound forcibly entered by Israeli police in Jerusalem
December 31 rises to 61%1%
Israeli police forcibly entered UNRWA's Jerusalem compound, escalating tensions with the UN agency, with Netanyahu meeting with US officials to discuss the Gaza plan.
Netanyahu pushes ahead with pardon request as year ends
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
Netanyahu reiterated his request for a presidential pardon and hinted at a possible compromise, reviving expectations that a political settlement could be reached before year‑end, which lifted market sentiment sharply.
Israel becomes first country to recognize breakaway Somaliland as independent state
December 31 rises to 62%1%
Israel formally recognized Somaliland as an independent state, a controversial diplomatic step that attracted regional criticism and raised questions about Netanyahu’s foreign‑policy calculations. The news buoyed odds that the market would resolve by the end of the year, nudging the “December 31” price upward from 61% to 62%.
Israel recognizes Somaliland as independent state, Netanyahu announces
December 31 rises to 61%1%
Netanyahu announced Israel's formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state, a significant diplomatic move that showcased his active leadership and may have contributed to market perceptions of his political resilience.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export contract with Egypt, signalling economic strength and regional cooperation, which lifted confidence that he would remain in office through year‑end.
Netanyahu announces Israel's recognition of Somaliland as sovereign state
Netanyahu announced Israel's official recognition of Somaliland, signaling active diplomatic engagement and regional leadership. This positive diplomatic move likely contributed to market confidence in his political longevity, supporting price recovery.
Netanyahu's trial disrupted by defense tactics, prolonging legal uncertainty
December 31 rises to 56%1%
The corruption trial faced unprecedented disruptions by Netanyahu's defense, causing delays and increasing uncertainty about the trial's outcome and Netanyahu's political future, which affected market confidence.
Netanyahu faces mounting political pressure but refuses to resign
December 31 jumps to 61%5%
Despite increasing calls for resignation and political challenges, Netanyahu maintained his position, with no indication of stepping down, leading to a rise in market probability for his resignation by year-end as speculation about future developments grew.
Netanyahu meets with US officials on Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 61%1%
Netanyahu met with US envoys urging progress on Gaza ceasefire, with the US anxious to keep the Trump-brokered deal moving, contributing to market stability at 61%.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
U.S. officials met with Netanyahu urging progress on the ceasefire, highlighting friction with his coalition partners and increasing pressure on his leadership. The heightened diplomatic tension contributed to the market’s jump to a 62% probability for a December‑31 resignation.
Israeli bus runs over and kills ultra-Orthodox teen during protest
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
A bus driver ran over and killed 14-year-old Yosef Eisenthal during a protest against military draft, causing market to rise to 62% as tensions over ultra-Orthodox draft issues emerged.
Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli Becomes First Cabinet Member to Call for Full Qatargate Probe
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
In a significant break from coalition solidarity, Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli publicly called the Qatargate allegations shocking and demanded a full investigation, adding to the political pressure on Netanyahu's administration.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
Netanyahu announced his participation in President Trump’s proposed Board of Peace, a move interpreted as a strategic pivot that could isolate him from hard‑line coalition partners and increase speculation about his political future, lifting the "December 31" resignation odds.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 drops to 49%7%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further escalation. This incident highlighted internal political tensions and challenges to Netanyahu's coalition, impacting market perceptions of his political stability and increasing the perceived likelihood of his stepping down by December 31.
Israel recognises Somaliland, a first for any nation
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent state. The diplomatic win was framed by Netanyahu as a major foreign‑policy achievement, temporarily reviving confidence in his leadership and lifting the market’s Yes odds for the December 31 outcome.
Minister backs probe into Qatargate, heightening pressure on Netanyahu
December 31 surges to 72%16%
Minister Amichai Chikli publicly backed a probe into the Qatargate affair, intensifying calls for Netanyahu’s resignation and causing the market’s Yes odds to rise sharply on Dec 22‑24.
Netanyahu signals no rush to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase amid hostage remains issue
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Netanyahu indicated reluctance to proceed with the next ceasefire phase until the remains of the last hostage are returned, tempering expectations of political change and causing a slight market correction downward from the peak probability.
Naftali Bennett Calls on Law Enforcement to Investigate Netanyahu in Qatargate Scandal
December 31 jumps to 56%7%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly urged the Shin Bet and police to fully investigate the 'Qatargate' leak scandal, including questioning Netanyahu himself, intensifying domestic political pressure on the Prime Minister.
Former PM Bennett urges Netanyahu to resign over Qatargate cover‑up
December 31 drops to 57%5%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly called for Netanyahu’s resignation over the Qatargate scandal, intensifying political pressure. The statement coincided with a short‑term price dip for the “December 31” outcome, falling from 62% to 57% the next day.
Bennett: Qatargate is ‘most serious act of treason’, PM must resign
December 31 dips to 53%4%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett called the Qatargate affair the “most serious act of treason” and demanded Netanyahu’s resignation, intensifying public pressure and causing the market to dip sharply.
Former Israeli PM joins calls for Netanyahu to resign over Qatar cover-up
December 31 drops to 61%5%
Former PM Naftali Bennett reiterated demands for Netanyahu's resignation over the Qatargate scandal, calling it 'the most serious treason affair in the history of the country,' further escalating pressure.
Naftali Bennett calls on police to fully investigate Netanyahu in Qatargate case
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Bennett urged Israeli law enforcement to exhaust the Qatargate investigation, including questioning Netanyahu himself, escalating legal and political pressure on the prime minister and influencing market perceptions of his political stability.
Former PM Bennett reiterates call for Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate cover-up
December 31 rises to 62%1%
Following new reports on Netanyahu aides' alleged paid lobbying for Qatar, Bennett intensified calls for Netanyahu's immediate resignation, labeling the affair the most serious act of treason in Israeli history, further pressuring Netanyahu's position.
Opposition leaders join calls for Netanyahu to resign over Qatargate cover-up
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
Following Bennett's accusations, other opposition figures including Yair Lapid and Yair Golan echoed calls for Netanyahu's resignation, citing the scandal as the most serious act of treason in Israeli history. This sustained political pressure kept market optimism for Netanyahu's resignation high.
Former Israeli PM Bennett calls for Netanyahu to resign over Qatar cover-up scandal
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Naftali Bennett and other opposition leaders accused Netanyahu of covering up a scandal involving his aides acting as agents for Qatar during the Gaza war, labeling it treason and demanding his resignation, which heightened political instability and market uncertainty.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 56%7%
Netanyahu approved a record $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt, a major regional energy move that boosted market sentiment to 56% after a previous low.
Bennett urges full investigation into Qatargate, including Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Bennett called on Israeli law enforcement to exhaust the Qatargate investigation, including questioning Netanyahu himself, escalating legal and political pressure on the prime minister and influencing market perceptions of his potential resignation.
Netanyahu announces recovery of last Israeli hostage remains from Gaza
December 31 jumps to 57%9%
Netanyahu hailed the recovery of the last hostage’s remains as a major achievement, reinforcing his leadership image and boosting market confidence in his political survival amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations.
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump in Florida sparks speculation about his political future
December 31 plunges to 57%24%
During a high‑profile visit to the U.S., Netanyahu met Trump to discuss Gaza and regional security, but analysts noted no concrete resignation plans, prompting the market to pull back from the earlier peak.
Bennett calls on Shin Bet and police to probe Netanyahu in Qatargate case
December 31 jumps to 56%8%
Naftali Bennett urged Israeli law enforcement to fully investigate the Qatargate scandal, including questioning Netanyahu himself, escalating legal and political pressure on the prime minister and impacting market confidence in his tenure.
Former PM Bennett and opposition leaders intensify Netanyahu resignation demands
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Following media reports on Netanyahu aides' alleged paid lobbying for Qatar, Bennett and other opposition figures publicly demanded Netanyahu's immediate resignation, increasing political pressure and market volatility.
Former PM Bennett reiterates calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatar cover-up
December 31 rises to 58%3%
Naftali Bennett renewed his call for Netanyahu's resignation, accusing him of betraying Israel and covering up the Qatargate scandal, reinforcing opposition pressure and positively influencing the market's expectation of Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Former PM Bennett joins calls for Netanyahu to resign over Qatar cover-up
December 31 rises to 60%3%
Bennett reiterated his demand for Netanyahu's resignation, accusing him of covering up the Qatargate scandal involving Netanyahu's aides acting as paid agents of Qatar during the Gaza war, sustaining market pressure on Netanyahu's position.
Bennett calls Qatargate 'most serious act of treason' in Israeli history, demands Netanyahu resign
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Naftali Bennett reiterated his call for Netanyahu's resignation, labeling the Qatargate affair as the gravest treason in Israeli history. This sustained political attack kept pressure on Netanyahu, contributing to market fluctuations around this date.
Former PM Bennett calls on Netanyahu to resign over Qatar cover-up
December 31 jumps to 61%7%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu of covering up the Qatargate affair, calling it the most serious act of treason in Israeli history and demanding his immediate resignation, which intensified political turmoil and market uncertainty.
Opposition calls intensify for Netanyahu to resign over Qatargate scandal
December 31 plunges to 57%15%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other opposition leaders publicly demanded Netanyahu's resignation amid allegations of a cover-up in the Qatargate affair, increasing political pressure. This contributed to a market price drop from 72% to 57%, reflecting doubts about Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu consolidates power amid ongoing military conflicts
December 31 surges to 81%28%
Following the October 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent military operations, Netanyahu's government faced intense pressure but maintained control, with the market peaking at 81% Yes on December 22, 2025, reflecting increased speculation about his potential resignation amid conflict stress.
Bennett and opposition leaders intensify calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatar cover-up
December 31 jumps to 56%8%
Following leaked reports and correspondence suggesting Netanyahu aides acted as paid agents for Qatar, Bennett and other opposition leaders escalated demands for Netanyahu's resignation, reinforcing the treason narrative and causing a rebound in market volatility and price.
Bennett demands Netanyahu’s resignation over Qatargate treason claim
December 31 surges to 81%32%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly called for Netanyahu’s resignation, labeling the Qatargate affair “the most serious act of treason in Israeli history.” The stark accusation from a senior former leader dramatically increased expectations that Netanyahu might be forced out, driving the market’s price from 49 % on Dec 21 to a peak of 81 % on Dec 22.
Former PM Naftali Bennett calls for Netanyahu's resignation over Qatargate scandal
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's office of treason related to alleged Qatari funding to his aides and demanded Netanyahu resign. This intensified political pressure and public scrutiny, contributing to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Israel's cabinet votes to shut down popular Army Radio station amid criticism
Netanyahu's government moved to shut down a national radio station, seen by critics as a blow to democracy, reflecting ongoing political tensions and challenges to Netanyahu's leadership, contributing to market uncertainty.
Naftali Bennett calls for Netanyahu's resignation over 'Qatargate' treason scandal
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's office of treason following revelations that close aides allegedly accepted Qatari funding during the Gaza war, demanding Netanyahu's immediate resignation.
Naftali Bennett reiterates call for Netanyahu's resignation over alleged Qatar funding
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Bennett accused Netanyahu's office of treason related to alleged Qatari funding to his aides, renewing calls for Netanyahu to resign. Despite this, Netanyahu announced plans to seek another term, reinforcing market skepticism about an early resignation.
Netanyahu government moves to shut down Israel's Army Radio station
December 31 jumps to 81%12%
The Israeli cabinet voted to shut down the popular Army Radio station, a move seen as a blow to media freedom and a sign of increasing authoritarian pressure from Netanyahu’s coalition. Traders interpreted the action as escalating political risk, pushing the “December 31” outcome up sharply, ending the day at 81% Yes.
Netanyahu Instructs Aides to Prepare for Early General Elections Amid Coalition Deadlock
December 31 drops to 49%7%
Reports emerged that Netanyahu privately instructed his aides to prepare for early general elections, potentially in June 2026, due to severe internal coalition disputes over the state budget and Haredi military conscription.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 surges to 81%25%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, indicated his commitment to diplomatic efforts and political stability, which temporarily boosted market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister, reflected in a price jump to 81%.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida over Iran and Gaza ceasefire
December 31 plunges to 49%23%
Netanyahu met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump warned of further US strikes on Iran and Netanyahu signaled he was not in a rush to move to Gaza's second phase, contributing to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu government votes to shut down Israel's Army Radio station
December 31 dips to 61%1%
The cabinet's decision to shut down a popular national radio station was seen as a blow to democracy and increased criticism of Netanyahu's government, contributing to political instability.
Israel recognizes Somaliland as independent state under Netanyahu's premiership
December 31 surges to 81%25%
In December 2025, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland, reflecting Netanyahu's active foreign policy despite internal pressures, which temporarily boosted market confidence in his tenure lasting through the year-end.
Israeli Cabinet Votes to Shut Down Army Radio Station Amid Press Freedom Concerns
December 31 jumps to 66%10%
The Israeli cabinet unanimously approved the closure of the IDF-run Army Radio station by March 2026. The decision, strongly supported by Netanyahu, was condemned by the Attorney General and opposition as a blow to democracy and press freedom.
Former PM Bennett accuses Netanyahu of treason over Qatar funding, calls for resignation
December 31 jumps to 62%12%
Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's office of treason related to alleged Qatari funding of his aides during wartime and demanded Netanyahu's immediate resignation. This serious allegation caused a sharp market drop followed by a rebound as the situation evolved.
Former Israeli PM calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate treason allegations
December 31 drops to 47%13%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly demanded Netanyahu's resignation, accusing his office of treason over alleged Qatari funding to aides during wartime, a move that significantly increased pressure on Netanyahu.
Naftali Bennett Accuses Netanyahu of Treason Over Qatargate and Demands His Resignation
December 31 jumps to 66%10%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called for Netanyahu's immediate resignation, accusing his office of treason following reports that close aides were paid by Qatar to promote its interests during wartime. This sparked a major political crisis and calls for investigations from opposition leaders.
Naftali Bennett Accuses Netanyahu's Office of Treason and Demands Resignation Over Qatargate
December 31 surges to 81%25%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called for Netanyahu's immediate resignation following leaked reports that Netanyahu's close aides acted as paid agents for Qatar during the war.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Netanyahu publicly confirmed his participation in President Trump’s newly‑expanded Board of Peace, reversing earlier criticism. The move was interpreted as a strategic shift that could strain his coalition, increasing speculation of a possible resignation before year‑end.
Former PM Bennett calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatar scandal
December 31 drops to 48%8%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's office of treason related to alleged Qatar funding of his aides during wartime and demanded his resignation. This scandal intensified political pressure and caused significant market price swings.
Netanyahu Warns Iran of Sharp Response Amid Defensive Missile Drills
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu issued a strong warning to Iran during a joint press conference, projecting strong security leadership ahead of his scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Former PM Bennett calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate treason allegations
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly demanded Netanyahu's resignation, accusing his office of treason over alleged Qatari funding to aides during wartime, a major political development that significantly increased pressure on Netanyahu.
Former Israeli PM Naftali Bennett calls for Netanyahu's resignation over alleged Qatar funding scandal
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's office of treason related to Qatar funding allegations, intensifying political pressure and public calls for Netanyahu to step down.
Israeli cabinet approves government-controlled inquiry into October 7 Hamas attack
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
The Israeli government, led by Netanyahu, advanced a bill to establish a state inquiry into the Hamas attack, with government influence over its composition and mandate. This move drew criticism and highlighted Netanyahu's control, affecting market perceptions of his political resilience.
Bennett renews treason accusations against Netanyahu's office over Qatar funding
December 31 jumps to 58%13%
Naftali Bennett reiterated accusations of treason against Netanyahu's office for alleged Qatar funding, reinforcing political pressure but Netanyahu's refusal to resign kept market uncertain, leading to a price rebound.
Former PM Bennett renews call for Netanyahu resignation over Qatari funding allegations
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Bennett intensified calls for Netanyahu's resignation amid allegations that Netanyahu's office accepted Qatari funding, further undermining Netanyahu's political standing and contributing to market price volatility.
Naftali Bennett calls on Netanyahu to resign over Qatargate 'treason' scandal
December 31 jumps to 66%10%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other opposition leaders demanded Netanyahu's immediate resignation following reports that his top aides allegedly worked as paid agents for Qatar.
Trump-Netanyahu meeting highlights policy differences ahead of Gaza plan
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
On December 22, reports indicated growing divergence between Netanyahu and Trump over regional strategy, with Netanyahu favoring hard power and Trump preferring negotiated solutions. This raised uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future and the peace process, contributing to market volatility.
UN Palestinian aid agency reports Israeli police forcibly entered compound amid Gaza tensions
December 31 surges to 72%16%
The Israeli police's forceful entry into the UNRWA compound heightened tensions around Gaza and increased scrutiny on Netanyahu's government, coinciding with a peak in market probability for his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu meets with US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago amid regional tensions
December 31 jumps to 62%12%
On December 22, 2025, Netanyahu met with Donald Trump, who expressed strong support for him. This bolstered Netanyahu's political standing temporarily, reflected in a market price increase for his continued tenure.
Netanyahu faces opposition backlash over Iran ceasefire outcomes
December 31 drops to 45%10%
After the Iran ceasefire, opposition leader Yair Golan demanded Netanyahu 'stand before the nation, admitted the failure of his strategy, and announced his immediate resignation,' intensifying political pressure on the Prime Minister.
Former PM Naftali Bennett demands Netanyahu resign over Qatargate cover-up
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu of covering up a major corruption scandal, calling it the most serious act of treason in Israeli history, which heightened political instability and negatively impacted market confidence in Netanyahu's continuation.
Former PM Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu of treason over Qatargate scandal
December 31 surges to 72%16%
Naftali Bennett publicly called for Netanyahu's resignation, accusing his office of treason due to alleged Qatari funding to Netanyahu's aides during wartime. This serious accusation heightened political pressure and caused a market price increase for Netanyahu stepping down by December 31.
Netanyahu to discuss Iran, Gaza peace plan second phase with Trump
December 31 surges to 72%16%
Netanyahu announced plans to meet US President Donald Trump to discuss Iran's nuclear activities and the next phase of the Gaza peace plan, signaling ongoing political maneuvering but no indication of resignation. This news caused a sharp market price increase to 72%, reflecting heightened uncertainty and potential political change.
Netanyahu-Trump meeting in Florida focuses on Gaza ceasefire progress
December 31 surges to 81%26%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and regional security, emphasizing the need for Hamas disarmament and the next phase of the peace process. This high-profile diplomatic engagement temporarily boosted market confidence in Netanyahu's political stability.
Former general Eisenkot accuses Netanyahu of loyalty-based appointments
December 31 jumps to 60%10%
On December 22, 2025, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of making senior appointments as rewards for loyalty rather than competence, criticizing his leadership amid ongoing crises. This criticism from a respected figure contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future.
Former Israeli PM accuses Netanyahu's office of treason over alleged Qatar funding
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's office of treason related to alleged Qatari funding to his aides, calling for Netanyahu's immediate resignation. This serious allegation intensified political pressure and caused market volatility, reflected in a price drop followed by recovery.
Retouched images of Netanyahu's wife distributed by state ignite ethics debate
December 31 plunges to 49%23%
The government's use of heavily retouched photos of Netanyahu and his wife sparked a major ethics controversy, causing a sharp price spike to 81% before a subsequent drop to 49% the next day.
Israel cabinet votes to shut down Army Radio, sparking democracy concerns
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Netanyahu's government approved shutting down a popular national radio station, seen by critics as a blow to democracy, which intensified political tensions and opposition calls for his resignation, causing a sharp market price drop.
Bennett accuses Netanyahu of treason over alleged Qatari funding
December 31 jumps to 60%5%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu’s office of “treason” for allegedly taking money from Qatar, calling for his resignation. The accusation heightened political pressure and drove the “December 31” outcome probability up from roughly 55 % to about 60 % the next day.
Bennett renews calls for Netanyahu resignation over alleged Qatar funding
December 31 jumps to 56%7%
Naftali Bennett again demanded Netanyahu's resignation, accusing his office of treason related to alleged Qatari funding of Netanyahu's aides during wartime. This intensified political controversy and contributed to a sharp market price swing.
Netanyahu to discuss Iran and next phase of Gaza plan with Trump
December 31 surges to 71%15%
Netanyahu announced plans to discuss Iran’s nuclear program with President Trump, sparking speculation he might seek a strong regional stance that could trigger his removal, further lifting the Yes probability.
Israeli Ministerial Committee Approves Bill Giving Government Control Over October 7 Inquiry
December 31 rises to 57%1%
A committee of ministers approved a Likud-sponsored bill to establish an inquiry into the October 7 attacks, allowing Netanyahu's government to influence its composition and mandate, sparking domestic outrage.
Former PM Bennett demands Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate treason allegations
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly called for Netanyahu's resignation, accusing him of treason over alleged Qatari funding to aides, significantly increasing market concern about Netanyahu stepping down.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, boosting Israel's regional energy profile and potentially easing strained relations. This positive policy announcement likely contributed to the market's volatility and price fluctuations around that date.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest gas export deal in Israeli history demonstrated his continued governance and influence, reinforcing market sentiment against his imminent resignation.
Ultra‑Orthodox protest turns deadly as teen is killed by bus
December 31 drops to 48%9%
A teenage yeshiva student was run over during a mass protest against Netanyahu's draft‑law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. The incident heightened public criticism of the government and lowered confidence in Netanyahu's political stability, pushing the December‑31 resignation probability down.
Netanyahu announces inquiry into October 7 failures amid public fury
December 31 jumps to 61%5%
Netanyahu announced he would head an inquiry into his government's failings before the Hamas-led October 7 attacks, drawing sharp criticism and calls for accountability. This event increased scrutiny on Netanyahu's leadership and influenced market perceptions of his political future.
Netanyahu delays request to halt his corruption trial as Israeli president postpones decision
President Isaac Herzog postponed ruling on Netanyahu’s plea to suspend his corruption trial, signaling continued legal challenges for the prime minister and raising doubts about his political stability.
Netanyahu announces October 7 inquiry: Why are Israelis furious?
Netanyahu announced he would head a state inquiry into October 7 failings, but the move drew criticism from many Israelis who demanded a more independent investigation or his resignation.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 rises to 60%4%
A cabinet meeting on escalating settler attacks highlighted security challenges and strained Netanyahu’s coalition, causing a brief dip in the December‑31 price before a modest rebound later in December.
Netanyahu meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago amid regional military tensions
December 31 rises to 56%2%
Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to the US to meet Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, aiming to secure support for Israeli military actions and maintain regional security dominance. This meeting occurred amid concerns about Israel launching wider offensives, impacting market confidence in Netanyahu's political survival.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrives in Israel for talks with Netanyahu
December 31 surges to 81%25%
The visit of German Chancellor Merz to Israel was reported on Dec 19, providing a temporary boost to Netanyahu’s standing and lifting the market’s December‑31 odds to a high of 81 % on Dec 22 before a later decline.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced approval of a historic gas export agreement with Egypt, sparking debate over his economic strategy and political capital ahead of year‑end. Traders saw the move as a possible catalyst for internal pressure on Netanyahu, nudging the December‑31 resignation probability upward.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
December 31 dips to 51%4%
Israel, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the US-led executive committee overseeing Gaza's ceasefire second phase, signaling political resistance and complicating peace efforts, which likely reduced confidence in Netanyahu's imminent resignation.
Ultra-Orthodox teen killed by bus during protest against military draft law
December 31 dips to 52%4%
A bus driver ran over and killed 14-year-old yeshiva student Yosef Eisenthal during a protest against plans to draft ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military, causing political tensions and a market reaction.
Netanyahu pitches himself as war‑time saviour ahead of 2026 election
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
A Bloomberg piece highlighted Netanyahu’s campaign ahead of the 2026 election, positioning himself as the wartime saviour. The upbeat campaign temporarily boosted confidence in his staying power, reflected in a rise of the December‑31 odds.
Netanyahu Approves Historic $35 Billion Natural Gas Export Deal with Egypt
December 31 rises to 55%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu approved a massive natural gas deal with Egypt, bolstering Israel's regional energy standing and demonstrating his continued executive authority amid domestic legal pressures.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu's approval of a major gas deal with Egypt strengthened his position as a regional leader and suggested political stability, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Opposition leaders call for Netanyahu's immediate resignation after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Following a ceasefire with Iran, opposition figures including Democrats leader Yair Golan publicly demanded Netanyahu admit failure and resign, signaling growing political pressure and uncertainty about his leadership.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 dips to 53%4%
Israel's military launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, a key obstacle to advancing the ceasefire. This heightened political tension and uncertainty about Netanyahu's position, with market prices slightly declining to 53%.
Opposition leader demands Netanyahu’s resignation after Iran cease‑fire
December 31 drops to 49%6%
After the Iran‑Israel cease‑fire was announced, opposition leader Yair Golan publicly urged Netanyahu to admit failure and resign. The call for resignation lifted market expectations that he would step down, pushing the “December 31” probability down from a mid‑50s peak to the low‑40s.
Hostage Survivors Demand Netanyahu Form State Inquiry or Resign
Over 200 former hostages and families reiterated their ultimatum, demanding either a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu's resignation. This event reinforced the 'December 31' outcome as the market settled at 54%.
Hostage survivors demand Netanyahu resign or authorize state inquiry
December 31 rises to 57%2%
Over 200 former hostages and bereaved families issued an ultimatum demanding Netanyahu either establish an independent inquiry into the October 7 failures or resign, increasing public and political pressure on his leadership.
Over 200 former hostages demand Netanyahu form state inquiry or resign
December 31 dips to 54%1%
A formal ultimatum from hostage survivors and families demanding either a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu's resignation intensified pressure on him to step down.
Over 200 hostage survivors demand Netanyahu form state inquiry or resign
A coalition of over 200 former hostages and families issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu, demanding either a full state commission of inquiry or his resignation, adding significant pressure on the PM.
Hostage survivors issue ultimatum: state inquiry or Netanyahu resignation
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
More than 200 former hostages and families issued an ultimatum demanding a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu’s resignation. The heightened public pressure added to the market’s upward drift, contributing to the rise from 55 % on Dec 12 to 61 % by Dec 19.
Hostage survivors and families deliver ultimatum to Netanyahu: establish state inquiry or resign
Over 200 former hostages and bereaved family members demanded that Prime Minister Netanyahu authorize an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or step down immediately.
Hostage survivors demand inquiry or Netanyahu’s resignation
December 31 jumps to 41%6%
More than 200 former hostages issued an ultimatum demanding a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu’s resignation. The public pressure contributed to the market’s swing back toward “December 31” (up to ~41 % by Apr 19) after a low in early March.
Netanyahu spokesman quits after racist remarks on Mizrahi Jews
December 31 plunges to 45%17%
A leaked audio revealed spokesman Ziv Agmon’s racist remarks about Mizrahi Jews, prompting him to resign. The controversy contributed to a sharp drop in the “December 31” odds from 62 % on Jan 3 to 45 % on Jan 6.
Hostage survivors demand Netanyahu form state inquiry or resign
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Over 200 former hostages and bereaved families issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu to authorize an independent state commission of inquiry into October 7 failures or resign, increasing public pressure on his leadership and contributing to market volatility.
Hostage survivors demand state inquiry or Netanyahu’s resignation
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
More than 200 former hostages and families issued an ultimatum demanding a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu’s resignation, pushing the market’s Yes probability up again after a brief dip.
Former hostages and families issue ultimatum to Netanyahu to establish state inquiry or resign
Marking 800 days since the October 7 attacks, over 200 former hostages and bereaved family members demanded that Netanyahu immediately authorize an independent state commission of inquiry or step down.
Former Hostages and Bereaved Families Demand Netanyahu Establish State Inquiry or Resign
Marking 800 days since the October 7 attacks, over 200 former hostages and relatives delivered an ultimatum to Netanyahu demanding an independent state commission of inquiry or his immediate resignation.
Hostage survivors and families demand Netanyahu authorize state inquiry or resign
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Over 200 former hostages and bereaved families issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu to authorize an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or step down, increasing political pressure on him.
Over 200 Hostage Survivors and Bereaved Families Demand Netanyahu Establish State Inquiry or Resign
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Marking 800 days since the October 7 attacks, a large group of former hostages and relatives issued a stark ultimatum to Netanyahu, demanding an independent state commission of inquiry or his immediate resignation.
Hostage survivors urge Netanyahu to set up inquiry or quit
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
More than 200 former hostages and families issued an ultimatum demanding that Netanyahu either create a state commission of inquiry into the Oct‑7 failures or resign. The public pressure and media coverage of the demand sparked a marked rise in market prices from the low‑50 % range to a high of 62 % in the following week, as traders priced in a higher probability of a resignation announcement.
Over 200 former hostages and families demand Netanyahu establish state inquiry or resign
More than 200 former hostages and bereaved families issued an ultimatum to Prime Minister Netanyahu to authorize a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or step down, increasing political pressure on him amid ongoing war and public dissatisfaction.
Hostage Survivors and Families Issue Ultimatum Demanding Netanyahu Resign or Form State Inquiry
Over 200 former hostages and bereaved family members demanded that Netanyahu establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or step down immediately.
Over 200 hostage survivors demand Netanyahu resign or authorize state inquiry
More than 200 former hostages and bereaved families issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or resign, increasing political pressure on him. This event underscored growing domestic demands for accountability but Netanyahu remained in office.
Hostage survivors and bereaved families demand Netanyahu resign or form state inquiry
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Over 200 former hostages and families issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or resign. This public pressure intensified scrutiny on Netanyahu's leadership and contributed to market uncertainty.
Israel becomes first country to recognize Somaliland
December 31 rises to 56%2%
Israel recognized Somaliland as an independent state, a move that sparked domestic controversy and added to political pressure on Netanyahu, nudging the December‑31 odds upward.
Opposition leaders call for Netanyahu's immediate resignation after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Following a ceasefire with Iran, opposition figures including Yair Golan publicly demanded Netanyahu admit failure and resign, increasing political pressure and skepticism about his leadership, which contributed to a slight market decline in confidence for Netanyahu staying past December 31.
Netanyahu rules out resigning in exchange for pardon amid corruption trial
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Netanyahu publicly rejected calls to retire from politics in exchange for a pardon in his ongoing corruption cases, signaling his intent to remain in office despite mounting legal and political challenges, which tempered market expectations for an imminent resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
The prime minister signed the largest ever Israeli gas export agreement, a move seen as bolstering his economic credentials but also tying Israel more closely to regional partners amid war fatigue, slightly easing resignation concerns for the December‑31 horizon.
Netanyahu tries to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 drops to 53%12%
Following the death of an ultra-Orthodox teenager during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for calm amid rising internal tensions. This event contributed to market volatility and a drop in December 31 resignation probability from 65% to 53%.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 rises to 57%4%
U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing international pressure on his leadership and affecting market confidence in his political future.
Opposition demands Netanyahu resign after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 drops to 50%6%
Following the ceasefire announcement with Iran, opposition leaders including Yair Golan called for Netanyahu's immediate resignation, citing failure in war strategy. This increased political pressure and influenced market sentiment on Netanyahu's tenure.
Former PM Bennett calls on Netanyahu to resign over Qatargate cover-up
December 31 rises to 54%1%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu of covering up a serious treason act related to Qatargate and demanded his immediate resignation. This intensified political pressure and briefly supported market optimism for Netanyahu stepping down.
Former PM Bennett calls Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate 'most serious act of treason'
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu of covering up the Qatargate affair involving Netanyahu's aides allegedly working for Qatar, calling for his resignation. This increased political pressure and uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure, causing market fluctuations.
Former PM Naftali Bennett calls Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate 'most serious act of treason'
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu of treason related to alleged Qatari funding of his aides and demanded his resignation, increasing political pressure and negatively impacting market confidence in Netanyahu's tenure.
Former PM Naftali Bennett demands Netanyahu resign over Qatargate cover-up
December 31 drops to 45%11%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly called Netanyahu to resign, accusing him of covering up the Qatargate affair, which he described as 'the most serious act of treason in Israeli history.' This serious accusation significantly increased pressure on Netanyahu to step down.
Netanyahu Rules Out Retiring From Politics in Exchange for Pardon
December 31 dips to 53%3%
During a press conference, Netanyahu explicitly rejected demands from opposition leaders to step down or retire from politics in exchange for receiving a presidential pardon.
Netanyahu publicly rejects resigning in exchange for pardon
On December 7, Netanyahu stated he would not retire from politics even if granted a pardon in his corruption trial, defying opposition demands and reinforcing his intent to remain in office. This firm stance influenced market perceptions, stabilizing the probability of his resignation at a lower level.
Netanyahu Rules Out Resigning or Retiring From Politics in Exchange for Presidential Pardon
December 31 rises to 56%1%
During a joint press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Prime Minister Netanyahu flatly rejected opposition demands to retire from public life or accept a plea bargain in exchange for a presidential pardon.
Netanyahu says he will not quit politics even if granted a presidential pardon
December 31 surges to 72%19%
Netanyahu announced he had asked President Isaac Herzog for a presidential pardon but ruled out resigning even if granted. The move was seen as a bid to stay in office, causing the market’s Yes‑probability to climb sharply from 53 % on Dec 5 to 72 % on Dec 22 as traders priced in a possible resignation scenario.
Netanyahu states he will not quit politics if pardoned
Following his pardon request, Netanyahu publicly declared he would not retire from politics even if granted a pardon, reinforcing his intent to remain in office despite legal troubles and opposition demands.
Netanyahu rules out resigning if granted pardon
December 31 rises to 56%2%
In a press conference, Netanyahu stated he would not retire from politics even if he received a presidential pardon, defying opposition demands and reinforcing market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister through 2025.
Netanyahu requests pardon from Israeli president amid corruption trial
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu formally requested a pardon from President Isaac Herzog, aiming to end his long-running corruption trial without admitting guilt. Despite this, he maintained he would not resign, which tempered market expectations for his departure.
Netanyahu rules out resigning in exchange for pardon
December 31 drops to 53%11%
Netanyahu publicly stated he would not retire from politics even if granted a pardon in his corruption trial, defying opposition demands and reinforcing his intent to remain in power. This stance likely caused market uncertainty and a price decline.
Israel recognizes Somaliland as independent state under Netanyahu's leadership
December 31 jumps to 61%5%
In December 2025, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland, reflecting Netanyahu's active foreign policy and political strength, which helped stabilize his position and slightly increased market confidence in his continued tenure.
Netanyahu rules out resignation in exchange for pardon amid corruption trial
December 31 plunges to 44%17%
At a press conference with German Chancellor Merz, Netanyahu firmly rejected resigning from politics or accepting a plea bargain in his ongoing corruption trial, signaling his intent to remain in office despite legal pressures. This stance likely contributed to market skepticism about his early departure.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visits Israel for talks with Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 56%7%
Netanyahu met German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Jerusalem, signalling a brief diplomatic win. The encounter coincided with a modest uptick in the "December 31" price (from low‑40s to mid‑50s) as market participants viewed improved foreign‑policy standing as a stabilising factor.
Netanyahu rules out resigning for a presidential pardon at press conference with German chancellor
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu’s press conference with German Chancellor Merz, in which he explicitly ruled out resigning in exchange for a presidential pardon, reinforced expectations that he would stay in office, contributing to a modest price dip from 56 % on Dec 7 to 54 % on Dec 10 as the market adjusted to the firm stance.
Netanyahu rejects resigning in exchange for pardon in corruption trial
At a joint press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Netanyahu firmly dismissed the idea of stepping down from politics or accepting a plea bargain, stating voters would decide his future. This stance reinforced his determination to remain in office despite legal challenges, stabilizing market expectations temporarily.
Netanyahu Says He Will Not Quit Politics if He Receives a Pardon
Netanyahu reiterated he would not retire from politics if granted a pardon, reinforcing the 'December 31' outcome as the market price rose to 56% before settling at 54%.
Netanyahu Rules Out Resigning From Politics in Exchange for Presidential Pardon
December 31 dips to 53%3%
During a joint press conference, Prime Minister Netanyahu explicitly rejected the idea of retiring from political life in exchange for a presidential pardon in his long-running corruption trial.
Netanyahu dismisses idea of quitting politics despite corruption trial
At a press conference, Netanyahu ruled out resignation or plea bargains, reinforcing his determination to stay in office and causing the market to stabilize around 56% for December 31.
Netanyahu says he won’t quit politics if he receives a pardon
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
Netanyahu publicly announced that he had formally requested a presidential pardon in his corruption trial and explicitly refused to step down in exchange for any clemency. The move was interpreted as a signal that he intended to stay in power, pushing the market’s Yes‑probability up sharply (from 53 % on Dec 8 to 62 % by Dec 25).
Netanyahu rules out resigning in exchange for pardon
Netanyahu dismissed demands from opposition figures to retire in return for a presidential pardon, reinforcing his stance against stepping down despite ongoing corruption charges.
Netanyahu publicly rules out resigning in exchange for pardon
December 31 rises to 56%1%
At a joint press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Netanyahu firmly dismissed the idea of resigning from politics in exchange for a pardon in his corruption trial, reinforcing his intent to remain in office. This stance countered opposition demands and influenced market confidence in his staying power.
Netanyahu appoints Military Secretary Roman Gofman as Mossad chief, sparking internal dissent
December 31 jumps to 60%6%
Netanyahu's controversial appointment of Roman Gofman as Mossad chief, despite his lack of intelligence experience, caused political uproar and threats of mass resignations within the agency, signaling internal government instability and raising doubts about Netanyahu's leadership.
Israel recognises Somaliland as an independent state
June 30 dips to 49%4%
Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland’s independence. The diplomatic win briefly lifted Netanyahu’s standing, causing a modest decline in the Yes‑probability for the June‑30 outcome (from 53 % to 49 % by 8 Dec 2025).
Netanyahu declines to set retirement date in interview
In an interview at The New York Times’s DealBook Summit, Netanyahu, aged 76, declined to specify when he would retire from politics, signaling his intent to remain in office and dampening immediate expectations of resignation.
Poll: Majority of Israelis oppose pardon for Netanyahu without guilt admission
December 31 rises to 56%2%
A poll released on Dec 4 showed 53 % of Israelis opposed granting Netanyahu a presidential pardon without an admission of guilt. The poll’s negative view of Netanyahu’s political future pushed prices upward, explaining the jump from 54 % on Dec 5 to 56 % on Dec 7 as the market re‑priced resignation risk.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export contract with Egypt, signalling a major economic win and boosting expectations that he would stay in office at least through the end of the year.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt strengthened his political position by enhancing Israel's regional energy influence and economic prospects, reducing immediate resignation speculation.
Netanyahu appoints Roman Goffman as next Mossad chief
On December 3, Netanyahu announced Major General Roman Goffman as the next head of Mossad, signaling a strategic leadership change ahead of June 2026. This appointment indicated ongoing shifts within Netanyahu's administration, influencing market perceptions of his political stability and potential tenure.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu, impacting market perceptions of his stability in office.
Netanyahu approves historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%3%
Netanyahu's approval of a major natural gas deal with Egypt strengthened Israel's regional energy position and suggested political stability, reducing immediate speculation about his stepping down. This bolstered confidence in his leadership during the period.
Israel suspends operations of several humanitarian organizations in Gaza
December 31 dips to 56%1%
Israel, under Netanyahu's government, suspended multiple humanitarian groups' operations in Gaza, escalating tensions and humanitarian concerns. This action contributed to market uncertainty and a price decrease from 57% to 56%.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest bus accident
December 31 dips to 55%1%
A teenage boy was run over during a protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, prompting Netanyahu to call for restraint. The incident highlighted growing domestic tension and pressure on his coalition partners, nudging the market lower on the likelihood of a resignation by year‑end.
Netanyahu's pardon request acknowledged he is unfit to lead Israel
Netanyahu formally requested a presidential pardon, with his lawyer and a video message acknowledging he has been incapable of fully performing duties, despite denying wrongdoing. This admission of unfitness to lead, without admitting guilt, was a significant political development.
Netanyahu requests pardon before corruption trial verdict, acknowledging inability to perform duties
Netanyahu formally requested a pardon from President Isaac Herzog before a corruption trial verdict, implicitly acknowledging he cannot fully perform duties, which could have led to resignation.
Netanyahu Appears in Court Following Controversial Pardon Request to President Herzog
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Netanyahu appeared in the Tel Aviv District Court for the first time since requesting a pardon from President Isaac Herzog, a move that sparked deep division across Israel regarding his political future and legal accountability.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 57%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing political pressure on Netanyahu amid ongoing conflict and hostage issues. This event coincided with a price stabilization around 57-64%, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of a major natural gas export deal to Egypt demonstrated his ongoing governance and ability to secure significant economic agreements, supporting market confidence in his continued tenure.
Netanyahu petitions President Herzog for a presidential pardon
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
Netanyahu formally asked President Isaac Herzog for a presidential pardon, signalling that he was seeking an exit path from his criminal cases. The move revived speculation that he might resign, pushing the Yes‑probability for the December‑31 outcome up from 59 % to 66 % by 7 Nov 2025.
Netanyahu Requests Corruption Case Pardon From President Isaac Herzog
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Netanyahu submitted an official request to President Isaac Herzog for a pardon in his ongoing corruption trial, arguing it was necessary for national unity. This move sparked intense speculation about a potential negotiated exit or plea deal that could lead to his resignation.
Bennett Supports Pardon Deal with Netanyahu's Exit from Politics
Former PM Naftali Bennett stated he would support a binding agreement including Netanyahu's withdrawal from politics alongside the end of the trial. This event contributed to the market's peak at 60% and subsequent decline.
Netanyahu formally requests pardon from President Isaac Herzog
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu's formal pardon request amid ongoing corruption trials raised questions about his political future, increasing uncertainty and impacting market perceptions of his likelihood to remain in office.
Opposition leader Bennett supports pardoning Netanyahu if he leaves politics
On November 30, 2025, former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly supported a conditional pardon for Netanyahu, contingent on his resignation from politics. This statement highlighted political pressure on Netanyahu to step down, influencing market sentiment about his potential resignation by December 31.
Netanyahu Submits Formal Request for Presidential Pardon in Corruption Trial
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu officially requested a pardon from President Isaac Herzog, sparking massive public protests and intense debate over whether a pardon should be conditioned on his retirement from politics.
Netanyahu Requests Presidential Pardon in Corruption Trial Without Admitting Guilt
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Benjamin Netanyahu formally requested a presidential pardon from President Isaac Herzog, arguing that the trial hindered his ability to govern, though he refused to admit any guilt.
Netanyahu Requests Pardon from Israel's President in Corruption Cases
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu formally requested a pardon in his long-running corruption trial, citing the impossible demand of testifying three times a week during a national security crisis.
Netanyahu petitions president for pardon amid corruption trial
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
Netanyahu formally asked President Isaac Herzog for a presidential pardon in his ongoing corruption trial, raising speculation that a pardon could lead to his resignation or removal. The market’s Yes probability rose sharply from 59 % to 66 % by 2025‑11‑06.
Netanyahu formally requests presidential pardon in corruption trial
Netanyahu requested a pardon from Israel's president for his ongoing corruption trial, arguing it was in the public interest. This unprecedented move raised questions about his political future and ability to govern, contributing to market uncertainty about his remaining in office through the end of 2026.
Netanyahu Officially Requests Pardon in Long-Running Corruption Trial
Netanyahu requested a pardon from Israel's president, arguing that the criminal proceedings hindered his ability to govern, which drew immediate calls from opposition leaders for his resignation.
Netanyahu officially requests presidential pardon amid corruption trial
December 31 dips to 55%3%
Netanyahu asked Israel's president for a pardon, arguing that ongoing criminal proceedings hindered his ability to govern. This move sparked opposition calls for his resignation, increasing uncertainty about his political future and impacting market expectations for his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, signaled his ongoing active leadership role in regional diplomacy, reducing market expectations of his stepping down by year-end.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 57%1%
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and potentially bolstering his political standing. This event occurred near the end of the analysis window with the market price steady at 57% Yes, indicating no immediate effect on resignation expectations.
Netanyahu condemns Hamas and Islamic Jihad over hostage body delay
December 31 rises to 57%1%
On November 25, 2025, Netanyahu publicly criticized Hamas and Islamic Jihad for delaying the return of a hostage's body, highlighting ongoing security and political challenges that contribute to instability in his leadership position, maintaining market uncertainty about his tenure.
ICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Gallant over corruption allegations
December 31 drops to 56%9%
The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, accusing them of fraud, corruption, and abuse of power, intensifying political and legal scrutiny.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, increasing political pressure on him. This event caused a rise in market probability as it suggested potential political shifts that could affect Netanyahu's position by year-end.
ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu and senior officials
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and senior officials for alleged war crimes. The move raised doubts about his political survival, contributing to the December‑31 price volatility.
Netanyahu Asks President for Pardon in Corruption Trial
Netanyahu formally requested a presidential pardon from President Isaac Herzog, with legal scholars questioning the precedent and potential constitutional crisis. This event caused a peak at 60% before declining to 56% on Nov 21.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announces resignation, signaling political shifts in US
December 31 rises to 57%1%
While not directly related to Netanyahu, this significant political resignation in the US reflects broader political instability in allied countries, potentially influencing perceptions of Netanyahu's political durability. The market price was around 56-57% Yes at this time, showing no direct impact but contextual political uncertainty.
Netanyahu reiterates Hamas must disarm in Gaza ceasefire talks
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Netanyahu’s meeting with former UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov to direct the peace process and insist on Hamas disarmament underscored his ongoing leadership role, contributing to market stabilization around a 56% probability.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
December 31 drops to 57%9%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence, a significant domestic security issue that added pressure on his government and influenced market uncertainty about his political future.
Israel accuses Hamas of ceasefire violation after explosion wounds soldier
December 31 drops to 53%13%
An explosion in Gaza injured an Israeli soldier, leading Netanyahu to accuse Hamas of violating the ceasefire. This incident heightened tensions and uncertainty about the ceasefire's stability, causing a market dip from 66% to 53%.
Netanyahu confirms bid for re-election in 2026 despite government challenges
December 31 drops to 57%10%
Despite internal government resignations and political pressure, Netanyahu publicly confirmed on November 18, 2025, his intention to run for another term in the 2026 elections. This announcement likely stabilized market expectations, reducing the probability of an imminent resignation.
Hostage Survivors Issue Ultimatum to Netanyahu
Over 200 former hostages and families demanded a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu's resignation, adding pressure on the prime minister. This event contributed to the market's trough at 53% and increased the likelihood of the 'December 31' outcome.
Market price trough at 55% after Netanyahu's office confirms peace process steps
December 31 rises to 59%4%
The market reached a low of 55% on Nov 18, coinciding with Netanyahu's office confirming the next steps in the peace process, including the second phase of the 20-point plan requiring further troop withdrawal and Hamas disarmament.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign
December 31 rises to 56%3%
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that a majority of Israelis believe Netanyahu should resign either now or after the war, reflecting growing public pressure and influencing market expectations of his potential exit.
Trump urges Netanyahu to pardon in corruption cases
December 31 rises to 66%2%
President Trump sent a letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog requesting a pardon for Netanyahu, who is facing multiple corruption trials, adding a layer of political complexity to Netanyahu's position.
Netanyahu Rejects Palestinian Statehood Amid Far-Right Coalition Backlash
December 31 drops to 53%11%
Netanyahu faced severe backlash from far-right coalition partners over a U.S.-backed statement on Palestinian independence, prompting him to firmly reiterate his opposition to a Palestinian state to prevent a coalition collapse.
Israeli government orders probe into October 7 attack, stops short of state commission
December 31 drops to 54%11%
The government announced a ministerial committee to investigate the October 7 attack failures instead of an independent state commission, drawing criticism and calls for Netanyahu's resignation, which affected market sentiment about his tenure.
Netanyahu faces far-right backlash after US-backed statement on Palestinian state
December 31 drops to 53%12%
On November 16, 2025, Netanyahu faced protests from far-right coalition allies after a US-backed statement supporting a pathway to Palestinian independence. This internal political pressure increased doubts about Netanyahu's coalition stability and his political survival prospects.
Israeli Government Orders Own October 7 Probe, Rejecting State Commission
December 31 drops to 53%14%
Netanyahu's cabinet voted to establish its own government-controlled probe into the October 7 failures rather than an independent state commission of inquiry, shielding the Prime Minister from a highly damaging independent investigation.
Israeli Government Orders October 7 Probe, Bypassing Independent State Commission
December 31 dips to 60%3%
The government decided to establish its own probe into the October 7 failures rather than an independent state commission of inquiry, drawing sharp criticism from opposition leaders who accused Netanyahu of trying to evade responsibility.
Netanyahu faces backlash from far-right coalition over Palestinian state stance
December 31 drops to 53%5%
Netanyahu's opposition to a Palestinian state, despite a U.S.-backed statement supporting a pathway to independence, angered far-right coalition members threatening to withdraw support. This political tension increased uncertainty about Netanyahu's ability to maintain his coalition and remain in office, impacting market sentiment negatively.
Netanyahu Rejects Palestinian Statehood Following Far-Right Backlash
December 31 drops to 57%7%
Netanyahu publicly opposed a Palestinian state to appease far-right coalition partners who threatened to bring down his government over a U.S.-backed statement.
Netanyahu vows to resolve spat between Zamir and Katz
Netanyahu addressed tensions between IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and Defense Minister Israel Katz, signaling efforts to maintain unity within the security establishment amid ongoing challenges.
Dermer resignation deepens Israeli government crisis
December 31 drops to 57%7%
Following Dermer's resignation, reports highlighted increased tensions within Netanyahu's coalition, with far-right factions threatening to withdraw support and moderates becoming alienated. This political crisis further increased market speculation about Netanyahu's potential resignation.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest
December 31 drops to 56%10%
The death of a 14‑year‑old during protests over military conscription of ultra‑Orthodox Jews sparked criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of the coalition, causing the market’s confidence in his staying power to dip.
Netanyahu plea deal talks begin amid corruption trial, potential 2026 exit
December 31 surges to 60%16%
Preliminary plea deal talks between Netanyahu's legal team and prosecutors increased market expectations of his possible resignation or removal before the end of 2026, reflected in a slight price increase for near-term exit outcomes.
Dermer’s resignation deepens Israeli government crisis
December 31 drops to 58%6%
Following Dermer’s resignation, reports highlighted increased tensions within Netanyahu’s coalition, with far-right factions threatening to withdraw support. This political instability further influenced market expectations about Netanyahu’s potential departure by year-end.
Resignation of Ron Dermer deepens crisis in Israeli government
December 31 dips to 59%4%
Dermer’s resignation intensified concerns about the stability of Netanyahu’s coalition government amid ongoing tensions and war fatigue. The departure of such a trusted advisor was seen as a warning sign of potential political change, influencing market expectations for Netanyahu’s tenure.
Netanyahu Rules Out Resigning in Exchange for Pardon
Netanyahu rejected the idea of stepping down for a presidential pardon, reinforcing his stance that he would not retire from politics as a condition for clemency. This strengthened the 'December 31' outcome as the market price dropped to 53% on Nov 18.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 drops to 53%13%
Top U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed for progress on the cease‑fire, highlighting diplomatic pressure and exposing potential political friction that caused the market to retreat on the resignation outlook.
Cabinet convenes on surge of West Bank settler violence
December 31 dips to 62%4%
Netanyahu called a security‑cabinet meeting to address escalating settler attacks in the West Bank, underscoring coalition strains and raising doubts about his political durability, which caused a modest pullback in the market.
Opposition leaders call for Netanyahu's immediate resignation after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 drops to 57%8%
Following the announcement of a ceasefire with Iran, opposition figures including Yair Golan publicly demanded Netanyahu admit failure and resign, increasing political pressure and causing market doubts about his tenure.
Donald Trump urges Israeli President Isaac Herzog to pardon Benjamin Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 64%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter requesting a full pardon for Netanyahu in his ongoing corruption trials, providing a significant political boost to the embattled Prime Minister.
Netanyahu appoints Gil Reich as acting National Security Adviser
December 31 dips to 65%2%
Following Hanegbi's dismissal, Reich was appointed acting NS advisor, a move that may have stabilized the security apparatus and reduced immediate concerns about leadership vacuum.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer resigns from Netanyahu's government
December 31 rises to 67%3%
Ron Dermer, a key confidant and strategist for Netanyahu, submitted his resignation, exposing cracks in the coalition and weakening communication channels with Washington.
Trump Sends Letter Urging Israeli President to Pardon Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 65%1%
U.S. President Donald Trump sent an official letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog calling for a full pardon for Netanyahu, boosting Netanyahu's political standing and defense against his corruption trial.
Cabinet meeting on surge of West Bank settler violence
December 31 drops to 54%13%
Netanyahu convened his security cabinet to address a spike in settler attacks, underscoring internal security challenges and potential coalition strain, which pulled the market back down.
Former US President Trump urges Israeli president to pardon Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 65%2%
On November 12, 2025, Donald Trump sent a letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog urging a pardon for Netanyahu amid his ongoing corruption trial. This high-profile support bolstered Netanyahu's political standing and likely influenced market sentiment regarding his ability to remain in office.
U.S. President Trump urges Israeli president to pardon Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 66%3%
On November 12, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog urging him to grant a pardon to Netanyahu in his corruption trial, signaling strong international support but also intensifying political controversy around Netanyahu's leadership.
Netanyahu meets with Mladenov to discuss Gaza peace process
December 31 rises to 67%2%
Netanyahu met with former UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov to discuss the Gaza peace process, reinforcing the Board of Peace commitment and contributing to the market's peak at 67% on Nov 12.
US President Trump urges Israeli President to pardon Netanyahu amid corruption trials
December 31 jumps to 64%6%
On November 12, 2025, US President Donald Trump sent a letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog requesting a pardon for Netanyahu, who was on trial for corruption. This high-profile support bolstered Netanyahu's political position and likely contributed to market confidence in his remaining in office.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu confidant and strategic affairs minister, resigns
December 31 rises to 66%4%
Ron Dermer, a key Netanyahu ally and central figure in shaping Israel's Gaza war policies, resigned from his ministerial post. His departure signaled cracks within Netanyahu's government and raised concerns about coalition stability, contributing to increased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu confidant, resigns as Strategic Affairs Minister
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
Dermer's resignation signaled internal government strain and was interpreted as a sign of political instability, slightly increasing market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Ron Dermer praises Netanyahu leadership in resignation letter
December 31 rises to 57%1%
In his resignation letter, Dermer praised Netanyahu’s leadership and reflected on the October 7 attacks, while committing to continue serving Israel. This nuanced departure kept some market optimism about Netanyahu's stability but underscored internal government shifts.
Key Netanyahu ally Ron Dermer resigns as minister of strategic affairs
December 31 rises to 58%3%
The New York Times reported that Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s long‑time minister of strategic affairs, submitted his resignation letter. Dermer was one of Netanyahu’s closest allies, and his departure was interpreted as a sign of growing instability in the coalition, prompting market participants to price in a higher likelihood of Netanyahu exiting before the end of the year. The market’s Yes probability rose from 55 % to 58 % that day.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer resigns from Netanyahu's government
December 31 rises to 67%3%
Ron Dermer, a close Netanyahu ally and key figure during the Gaza war, resigned his ministerial post, reflecting growing instability and loss of confidence within Netanyahu's inner circle. This resignation heightened market expectations of Netanyahu's eventual departure.
Netanyahu’s close adviser Ron Dermer resigns as Strategic Affairs Minister
December 31 dips to 64%2%
Ron Dermer, a key confidant and strategic minister under Netanyahu, resigned after helping secure a ceasefire with Hamas. His departure highlighted cracks within Netanyahu's government and raised concerns about the prime minister's political stability, causing a decline in the market's confidence in Netanyahu remaining in office through December 31, 2026.
Ron Dermer Resigns as Netanyahu's Minister of Strategic Affairs
December 31 rises to 66%4%
Dermer, Netanyahu's key confidant and Gaza war architect, submitted his resignation letter, signaling potential instability in Netanyahu's government. This major political development likely contributed to the market's price spike to 81% on Dec 22.
Netanyahu’s key minister Ron Dermer resigns from government
December 31 rises to 57%4%
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s close aide and Strategic Affairs Minister, resigned, exposing cracks in the coalition and raising concerns about Netanyahu's ability to maintain his government. Dermer's departure was seen as a significant blow to Netanyahu's political stability, increasing market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by December 31, 2026.
Key Netanyahu confidant Ron Dermer resigns from ministerial post
December 31 drops to 54%11%
Ron Dermer, a close ally and strategic affairs minister, resigned, signaling internal government instability and weakening Netanyahu's support amid ongoing political and legal challenges.
Minister Ron Dermer announces resignation from Strategic Affairs Post
December 31 drops to 56%9%
Dermer officially informed Netanyahu of his resignation, citing a promise to his family and marking the end of his role during a critical period, reinforcing perceptions of political shifts within Netanyahu's government.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s key minister, resigns
December 31 drops to 56%11%
Ron Dermer, a close confidant and strategic affairs minister, resigned on November 11, 2025, signaling potential weakening within Netanyahu’s government and increasing speculation about Netanyahu’s political stability. This event contributed to a slight decline in the market probability of Netanyahu remaining in office.
Netanyahu confidant Ron Dermer resigns from ministerial post
December 31 dips to 64%2%
Ron Dermer, a key Netanyahu ally and strategic affairs minister, resigned after serving beyond his initial commitment, signaling potential instability within Netanyahu's inner circle. This resignation likely contributed to a market dip as it raised questions about Netanyahu's political strength.
Key Netanyahu minister Ron Dermer resigns amid political pressures
December 31 drops to 53%12%
Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Netanyahu and strategic affairs minister, resigned, signaling cracks within Netanyahu's inner circle and increasing speculation about the prime minister's political stability and potential departure.
Dermer resigns after turbulent term as Netanyahu’s top diplomat
December 31 drops to 57%9%
Dermer, widely regarded as Netanyahu's closest advisor and de facto foreign minister during the Gaza war, submitted his resignation, signaling a major shift in Netanyahu's government and intensifying pressure for his own resignation.
Ron Dermer Resigns as Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister
Dermer, Netanyahu's key confidant and central figure in Gaza war policies, submitted his resignation letter, signaling a loss of a major ally for Netanyahu. This event contributed to the market's initial price movement but did not directly affect the multi-outcome resolution.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's Strategic Affairs Minister, Resigns
Ron Dermer, a key confidant and strategic affairs minister, submitted his resignation after serving beyond his initial two-year commitment, signaling potential instability or shifts within Netanyahu's government. This resignation likely influenced market perceptions of Netanyahu's political stability and tenure.
Ron Dermer resigns as Israel’s strategic affairs minister
December 31 drops to 57%7%
Ron Dermer, a key Netanyahu confidant and strategic affairs minister, resigned in November 2025 after fulfilling his extended commitments related to the Gaza war and hostage negotiations. His departure exposed fractures within the government coalition and raised doubts about Netanyahu's political stability.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's confidant, resigns as Israel's Minister of Strategic Affairs
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Dermer, a key negotiator of the Gaza ceasefire and Netanyahu's closest aide, submitted his resignation, exposing cracks in the government and raising concerns about Netanyahu's leadership stability.
Dermer resigns as Israel's strategic affairs minister
December 31 dips to 62%4%
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer submitted his resignation letter, citing personal commitments and a pledge to serve only two years, which increased uncertainty about Netanyahu's leadership stability.
Israel’s minister of strategic affairs Ron Dermer resigns
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Dermer, a key confidant and ally of Netanyahu, resigned after pledging to serve two years, signaling internal political strain and potential instability within Netanyahu's government.
Netanyahu blocks Palestinian state after U.S.-backed U.N. statement
December 31 dips to 64%2%
Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel's opposition to Palestinian statehood amid protests from far-right coalition allies over a U.S.-backed UN resolution, intensifying political tensions and controversy.
President Herzog delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
December 31 drops to 53%14%
President Isaac Herzog postponed ruling on Netanyahu’s plea to suspend his ongoing corruption trial, a setback that could force the prime minister to consider resignation to avoid further political damage.
Israeli Cabinet approves outline of deal to release all remaining hostages held by Hamas
December 31 jumps to 64%5%
The Israeli Cabinet approved the framework of a ceasefire and hostage release deal, boosting confidence in Netanyahu's leadership and increasing market expectations of his political survival.
Netanyahu's plans for expanded Gaza offensive spark domestic and international dismay
December 31 dips to 64%2%
Netanyahu's announcement of plans for an expanded Gaza offensive caused anger and dismay both at home and abroad, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his leadership. This contributed to market fluctuations regarding his likelihood to remain in office through 2026.
Netanyahu vows to stop Hezbollah re‑arming after Beirut strike
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
Netanyahu publicly pledged to prevent Hezbollah re‑arming after an airstrike, a strong security‑focused statement that briefly lifted the "December 31" odds to 66 % as investors saw a possible rally of nationalist support.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 rises to 67%3%
Pressure from U.S. envoys for Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's second phase highlighted ongoing diplomatic challenges but also Netanyahu's central role, reinforcing market expectations of his political survival at least through 2025.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
December 31 jumps to 65%6%
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, a politically sensitive issue that increased domestic pressure on his government and influenced market perceptions of his political stability.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Following the tragic death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted internal tensions and political challenges, which may have influenced market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Netanyahu begins plea deal talks amid ongoing corruption trial
December 31 rises to 66%4%
In early November 2025, Netanyahu entered preliminary plea deal negotiations related to his corruption trial, increasing market perceptions of his potential resignation or removal before the end of 2026, reflected in a price rise to 66%.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fires Defense Minister Gallant
December 31 rises to 67%3%
Netanyahu dismissed Yoav Gallant citing a widening gulf of trust, sparking widespread protests and political backlash that heightened uncertainty about his government's stability.
Bus kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest, Netanyahu urges calm
December 31 drops to 53%12%
A bus ran over a 14‑year‑old protester during massive demonstrations against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox Jews, sparking nationwide criticism of his handling of the draft issue and eroding his coalition’s stability, which pulled the "December 31" price down.
Netanyahu seeks calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 rises to 65%4%
Following the death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint amid rising domestic tensions, highlighting internal challenges that could impact his political standing and market perceptions of his tenure.
Netanyahu Removes Defence Minister Gallant, Replacing Him with Foreign Minister Katz
December 31 rises to 66%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu dismissed Defense Minister Yoav Gallant due to a breakdown in trust and strategic differences over the Gaza conflict, replacing him with Israel Katz. This major cabinet shakeup highlighted deep political divisions and impacted the perceived stability of his coalition.
Israel arrests former prosecutor exposing IDF war crimes
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Former Israeli military prosecutor Tomer-Yerushalmi was arrested for leaking evidence of IDF soldiers gang-raping a Palestinian detainee, with Netanyahu calling the leak 'the worst public relations attack on Israel in its history.'
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 66%1%
The approval of the largest ever Israeli gas export contract was presented as a major economic win that could stabilize Netanyahu’s coalition and reduce pressure for his resignation, further lifting the market’s confidence in a December‑31 outcome.
Former Israeli military prosecutor arrested for leaking IDF war crimes video
December 31 rises to 62%4%
Former military prosecutor Tomer-Yerushalmi was arrested for leaking evidence of IDF soldiers gang-raping a Palestinian detainee, prompting Netanyahu to condemn the leak as a 'worst public relations attack on Israel in its history'.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 jumps to 64%6%
Netanyahu's active response to escalating settler violence and security challenges demonstrated his continued leadership and control over domestic issues, supporting market confidence that he would remain in office through the end of 2025.
Netanyahu's confidant Ron Dermer resigns as minister of strategic affairs
Dermer, Netanyahu's closest advisor and key negotiator of the Gaza ceasefire, submitted his resignation, exposing deep cracks in the Israeli government and raising concerns about Netanyahu's stability.
Dermer resigns as Netanyahu's strategic affairs minister
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's closest confidant and key negotiator of the Gaza ceasefire, submitted his resignation letter, deepening the crisis in Netanyahu's coalition and raising questions about his long-term position.
Netanyahu joins Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza peace process
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Netanyahu announced he would join Trump's Board of Peace to oversee the Gaza ceasefire, a significant diplomatic move that contributed to the market's sustained price near 64% in early November.
Netanyahu announces approval of $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 64%5%
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and potentially bolstering his political standing, which may have contributed to a price increase to 64% for the December 31 outcome as it suggested political stability.
Gadi Eisenkot resigns from Knesset and National Unity party
December 31 rises to 45%1%
Eisenkot's resignation, announced on July 1, 2025, was part of a broader wave of ministerial resignations following October 7, contributing to political instability in Netanyahu's coalition.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 64%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing pressure on him amid complex negotiations. This diplomatic push coincided with a market price rise from 57% to 64% Yes, reflecting increased uncertainty and speculation about Netanyahu's political future.
Polls show rising calls for Netanyahu's resignation amid Gaza war
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
Surveys indicated increasing Israeli public demand for Netanyahu's resignation as the Gaza war continued, reinforcing market expectations of his potential exit by the end of 2026.
Yair Netanyahu appointment sparks coalition crisis
December 31 jumps to 64%5%
The appointment of Netanyahu's son, Yair Netanyahu, to a senior position triggered opposition withdrawal from coalition agreements and accusations of nepotism, exacerbating coalition instability and raising doubts about Netanyahu's political future.
Opposition leader urges Netanyahu to resign after Iran ceasefire
December 31 rises to 55%2%
The Jerusalem Post noted opposition leader Yair Golan demanding Netanyahu’s resignation after an Iran ceasefire. While Netanyahu did not resign, the public call heightened speculation, nudging the December‑31 odds upward.
Netanyahu testifies in corruption trial amid opposition calls for resignation
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Netanyahu appeared in court for his ongoing corruption trial while opposition leaders criticized his war strategy and called for his resignation, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his future.
Netanyahu's attorneys threaten to resign over increased court hearings
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Three attorneys representing Netanyahu in his criminal trial threatened to resign if the court increased weekly hearings, highlighting ongoing legal pressures on the Prime Minister. This added to political uncertainty and influenced market sentiment about his tenure.
Netanyahu faces political isolation amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 rises to 66%2%
As a fragile ceasefire holds, Netanyahu stands increasingly alone politically at home and abroad, with US officials trying to maintain the truce and internal coalition fractures growing, which raised market expectations for his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address surge in West Bank settler violence
December 31 rises to 59%4%
Escalating settler attacks prompted Netanyahu to call an emergency cabinet meeting, signaling political strain and the need to manage coalition pressures, which kept market participants focused on the December‑31 timeline for a potential resignation.
Israeli cabinet renames October 7 war to 'War of Revival'
December 31 jumps to 65%6%
The Israeli cabinet voted to change the official name of the October 7 war from 'Swords of Iron' to the 'War of Revival,' signaling a political strategy to reshape public perception ahead of elections. This move was part of Netanyahu's campaign efforts, impacting market views on his political maneuvering and tenure.
Netanyahu shuts down Harpoon program to disrupt Hamas funding
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu shut down Harpoon, an Israeli intelligence program designed to stop Hamas funding, which drew criticism for undermining efforts to disrupt Hamas operations.
Haaretz reports leaked media reports of Hanegbi-Netanyahu policy disagreements
Leaked reports in Haaretz revealed serious disagreements between Hanegbi and Netanyahu, including Hanegbi's opposition to the Gaza City operation, adding context to the dismissal and reinforcing concerns about Netanyahu's leadership cohesion.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi amid policy disputes
December 31 rises to 48%3%
Prime Minister Netanyahu fired National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi, a longtime ally, reportedly due to disagreements over Gaza war policies. Hanegbi's dismissal underscored growing tensions within Netanyahu's government and contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political stability.
Netanyahu fires national security adviser amid Gaza disagreements
December 31 jumps to 64%5%
Netanyahu dismissed National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi due to disagreements over the Gaza war, highlighting internal government strife and weakening Netanyahu's position, which contributed to increased market expectations of his resignation by the end of 2026.
Netanyahu fires National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 jumps to 66%9%
Netanyahu dismissed Tzachi Hanegbi as head of the National Security Council amid disagreements over Gaza operations and Qatar mediation, signaling internal government strife and increasing doubts about Netanyahu's leadership. This event contributed to a market price increase for Netanyahu stepping down by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu fires national security chief Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 jumps to 64%5%
Netanyahu dismissed National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi amid ongoing government instability and criticism over the handling of the war. This move highlighted internal tensions and contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi amid Gaza policy disagreements
December 31 jumps to 58%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu replaced his National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi after reported disagreements over Gaza war policies, signaling internal instability and potential leadership challenges.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi
Prime Minister Netanyahu replaced his National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi after reported policy disagreements during the Gaza war, signaling internal political tensions that influenced market sentiment about Netanyahu's leadership stability.
Netanyahu replaces National Security Adviser after Gaza policy disagreements
December 31 jumps to 64%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu fired his National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi over reported policy disagreements during the Gaza war, signaling internal leadership tensions that increased speculation about Netanyahu's future.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire to second phase
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed him to move the Gaza cease‑fire into its second phase, increasing pressure on his government and suggesting possible political costs if he stalled, which nudged the market toward a resignation outlook.
Netanyahu fires national security chief amid coalition tensions
December 31 drops to 56%6%
Prime Minister Netanyahu dismissed National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi, reflecting growing internal government instability and challenges in managing coalition partners. This event contributed to market concerns about Netanyahu's hold on power.
Netanyahu announces intention to run for PM in 2026 elections
December 31 rises to 48%4%
Netanyahu publicly declared his plan to seek another term as Prime Minister in the upcoming 2026 elections, signaling his commitment to remain in office and influencing market confidence in his staying power.
Netanyahu announces he will run for PM again in 2026 elections
Netanyahu publicly declared his intention to seek another term as Prime Minister in the 2026 elections, signaling his determination to remain in power despite political challenges, which tempered market expectations of an imminent resignation but kept the probability elevated for a later resignation by year-end.
Government working to appoint own Oct. 7 inquiry amid opposition anger
The Israeli government announced plans to appoint its own inquiry into the October 7 failures, angering bereaved families and opposition figures who demanded Netanyahu's resignation and a state commission. This political tension contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu announces he will run again in 2026 elections
December 31 drops to 56%6%
Netanyahu declared his intention to run for prime minister again in the 2026 elections, signaling his determination to remain in power despite political pressures. This announcement tempered some market expectations of his imminent resignation, causing price fluctuations.
Netanyahu and Trump discuss Gaza ceasefire second phase amid stalled progress
December 31 surges to 63%16%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss advancing the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, which involves disarming Hamas and further troop withdrawals. The slow progress and political complexities increased market uncertainty about Netanyahu's position, contributing to a price rise from 47% to 63%.
Benjamin Netanyahu Announces Reelection Bid for 2026 Parliamentary Elections
December 31 plunges to 57%16%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced during a television interview that he intends to run for office again in the 2026 elections, signaling his determination to remain in power.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Hanegbi's dismissal was part of Netanyahu's effort to maintain control, with Netanyahu stating that 'full trust between the prime minister and the defense minister' was essential during wartime.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 plunges to 57%16%
Netanyahu spent three hours in a private White House meeting with President Trump, insisting on continued US‑Iran negotiations and signaling a strong US‑Israel partnership, which boosted confidence that Netanyahu could secure a diplomatic win before year‑end, pushing the December‑31 price up sharply.
Iran president declares full-scale war with U.S., Israel, and Europe
December 31 plunges to 55%18%
Iran's president stated his country is in a full-scale war with the U.S., Israel, and Europe, escalating regional tensions and contributing to a market peak at 73% on Oct 16, followed by a sharp decline.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 45%1%
Hanegbi's dismissal, citing lack of trust between PM and defense minister, was part of a broader wave of resignations after October 7, signaling growing instability in Netanyahu's government.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza peace process
December 31 dips to 73%3%
Netanyahu announced he would join Trump's Board of Peace to oversee the Gaza ceasefire, a significant diplomatic move that boosted market confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign
December 31 surges to 74%22%
A poll published in mid-October revealed that a majority of Israelis believed Netanyahu should resign either immediately or after the war, reflecting growing public pressure and contributing to a peak in market probability for his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu appoints General Roman Goffman as Mossad chief amid internal uproar
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
On October 15, 2025, Netanyahu's surprise appointment of a non-intelligence officer as Mossad chief sparked criticism and concerns about internal resignations, signaling political maneuvering that unsettled the government and increased market expectations of Netanyahu's potential exit.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
December 31 surges to 69%22%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, a significant internal security challenge that could impact his political standing. This event coincided with a sharp market price increase from 47% to 69% Yes, reflecting increased speculation about political instability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 73%25%
The approval of the largest gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened Netanyahu’s economic credentials and regional standing, temporarily boosting confidence that he would remain in office through year‑end.
Netanyahu's surprise appointment of General Roman Goffman as Mossad chief sparks internal uproar
December 31 surges to 67%15%
On October 15, 2025, Netanyahu appointed General Roman Goffman as Mossad chief, a move criticized for Goffman's lack of intelligence experience, causing internal dissent and concerns about leadership stability, which influenced market optimism about Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 74%7%
Netanyahu approved a record-breaking $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, a major policy announcement that boosted market confidence and drove prices to a peak of 74% on this date.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head amid resignations
December 31 jumps to 63%8%
Netanyahu dismissed Tzachi Hanegbi, the National Security Council head, amid a wave of resignations and dismissals of senior officials following the October 7 failures, highlighting Netanyahu's isolation and increasing political instability.
Netanyahu pressured into Gaza ceasefire deal amid coalition rifts
December 31 surges to 62%15%
Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire deal with Hamas under pressure from U.S. President Trump and amid a rift within his far-right coalition, raising speculation about his political stability and potential government collapse before the 2026 elections. This increased market uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu fires national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi amid internal disputes
December 31 jumps to 64%9%
Netanyahu dismissed his National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi, the latest in a series of high-profile resignations and dismissals following the October 7 failures. This action underscored internal government tensions and increased speculation about Netanyahu's political future, driving the market sharply higher.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after war
December 31 surges to 63%15%
Polls published in mid-October showed a majority of Israelis wanting the war to end and a significant portion demanding Netanyahu's resignation either immediately or after the war, reflecting growing public pressure that contributed to the market price increase for Netanyahu's resignation by December 31.
Trump urges Israel’s president to pardon Netanyahu amid corruption trial
December 31 jumps to 55%8%
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly called on Israeli President Isaac Herzog to pardon Prime Minister Netanyahu, who was on trial for corruption. This intervention highlighted the political and legal pressures Netanyahu faced, influencing market expectations about his political future.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran nuclear talks
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Netanyahu's meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on ongoing negotiations with Iran, including limits on ballistic missiles and militant support. This high-profile diplomatic engagement raised market confidence in Netanyahu's political maneuvering, reflected in a sharp price increase.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 76%15%
The prime minister signed a historic natural‑gas agreement with Egypt, portraying a major economic win that reinforced his standing and suggested a stable governing coalition, further lifting the resignation‑probability market.
Iranian president declares full‑scale war with the West ahead of Netanyahu‑Trump meeting
December 31 jumps to 76%14%
Iran’s president warned of an all‑out war with the U.S., Israel and Europe, intensifying regional security concerns and increasing speculation that Netanyahu could face pressure to resign, lifting the December‑31 odds further.
Donald Trump meets Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem amid ceasefire and political pressure
December 31 jumps to 76%14%
U.S. President Donald Trump met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, highlighting intense diplomatic coordination and pressure regarding the Gaza ceasefire and regional strategy.
Netanyahu plea deal talks begin amid corruption trial, potential 2026 exit
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
On October 13, 2025, reports emerged of plea deal negotiations involving Netanyahu amid his ongoing corruption trial. This development increased market expectations of Netanyahu's potential resignation or removal before the end of 2026, reflected in a significant price jump.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, signaled his continued political engagement and willingness to cooperate on the Gaza ceasefire, which temporarily boosted market confidence in his political stability.
Israel-Hamas agreement faces multiple 'ifs' including Netanyahu sabotage concerns
December 31 jumps to 53%6%
EIR Daily News highlighted risks to the recently negotiated Israel-Hamas agreement, including speculation that Netanyahu might sabotage the deal after hostage release, adding uncertainty about his political future.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export contract to Egypt, strengthening Israel’s energy profile and improving his political capital, which pushed the market’s December‑31 probability up.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace, sparking coalition dissent
December 31 jumps to 53%6%
Netanyahu announced his agreement to serve on President Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing the Gaza cease‑fire, a reversal of his earlier criticism and a move that angered far‑right coalition partners, raising doubts about his political stability.
Trump and Netanyahu meet in Florida, Trump warns Iran of strikes
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
During a high‑visibility meeting in Florida, President Trump warned Iran of further US strikes while standing beside Netanyahu, underscoring the close US‑Israel alliance and suggesting Netanyahu’s strategic leverage in regional security.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 surges to 62%15%
Netanyahu's meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and regional security, raising market speculation about political pressures on Netanyahu's leadership amid ongoing conflicts. This high-profile diplomatic engagement contributed to a sharp price increase from 47% to 62% for the December 31 outcome.
Netanyahu Plea Deal Talks Begin Facilitated by President Herzog
December 31 jumps to 60%12%
Israeli President Isaac Herzog facilitated preliminary talks between Netanyahu's legal team and state prosecutors to explore a plea deal in his corruption trial, raising the probability of an early exit.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 74%8%
Netanyahu reversed his previous criticism of the board's composition and agreed to join, signaling a major diplomatic move that likely boosted market confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Opinion calls for Netanyahu's resignation as Gaza war nears end
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
An influential opinion piece argued that Netanyahu should resign over the October 7 massacres as the war in Gaza was concluding, adding to public and political pressure and contributing to market price increases around this time.
Israel launches surprise Gaza attack ending 2025 ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 56%12%
Israel launched a surprise strike on Gaza ending the January‑2025 ceasefire, followed by an escalation that raised expectations of a prolonged war and heightened political risk, pushing the December‑31 odds up.
Haaretz op-ed calls for Netanyahu to resign over October 7 massacres
December 31 jumps to 63%6%
Haaretz published an opinion piece arguing that Netanyahu must resign over the October 7 massacres, reflecting the growing consensus among experts and commentators that he bears responsibility for the failures.
Netanyahu's government approves Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal
December 31 surges to 62%17%
Netanyahu's cabinet approved a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, which was a significant political event amid ongoing conflict, temporarily bolstering his position but also drawing criticism from far-right coalition partners, impacting market perceptions of his stability.
Netanyahu pressured into Gaza ceasefire deal, shifting political fortunes
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Netanyahu accepted a ceasefire deal with Hamas under pressure, contradicting his previous stance on total victory. This deal and the release of hostages altered his political standing, increasing speculation about his future and boosting market probability of his resignation by year-end.
Israeli cabinet ratifies Trump‑brokered Gaza cease‑fire and hostage‑exchange deal
December 31 surges to 74%27%
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, Washington Post, Times of Israel) reported that the Israeli cabinet approved a U.S.‑brokered cease‑fire and hostage‑exchange deal proposed by President Trump. The agreement was seen as a major concession by Netanyahu and sparked speculation that the deal could force his resignation, pushing the market’s Yes price sharply upward from 47 % on Oct 4 to 55 % on Oct 10 and then to a peak of 74 % on Oct 15.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, indicated his active role in regional diplomacy and peace efforts, which may have increased market confidence in his continued leadership, causing a notable price jump.
Israeli cabinet approves Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
Netanyahu's government ratified a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal with Hamas, marking a significant step toward ending the war and releasing hostages. This move was seen as a political pivot that could affect Netanyahu's standing, causing a sharp rise in market optimism about his potential resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu Agrees to Gaza Ceasefire Deal Under U.S. Pressure
December 31 surges to 74%19%
Prime Minister Netanyahu accepted a Trump-brokered ceasefire deal in Gaza, which critics and far-right allies saw as a major concession, raising expectations of a potential coalition collapse and early elections.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 67%15%
The approval of a historic gas deal signaled economic gains and regional cooperation, reinforcing Netanyahu’s political standing and prompting a sharp rise in the market’s Yes probability.
Israel and Hamas agree to ceasefire and hostage release deal
December 31 jumps to 58%13%
The ceasefire agreement and return of hostages were seen as a political boost for Netanyahu, increasing market confidence in his staying power but also raising expectations for political accountability and elections.
Israeli Opposition Coordinates Plans to Bring Down Netanyahu's Coalition Government
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Opposition leader Yair Lapid announced coordinated efforts to bring down Netanyahu's far-right coalition government within months during the upcoming parliamentary session, increasing pressure on the Prime Minister.
Israeli opposition plans to remove Netanyahu within months
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Opposition leader Yair Lapid announced coordinated efforts to bring down Netanyahu's government during the upcoming parliamentary session, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure, which influenced market sentiment.
Israel Democracy Institute poll: 45% of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign for October 7 failures
December 31 jumps to 57%13%
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 45% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should resign immediately for the October 7 massacre, while another 19% believe he should resign after the war ends, fueling public pressure for his resignation.
Poll: 64% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should bear responsibility for October 7 and resign
December 31 rises to 64%1%
A significant increase in public demand for Netanyahu's resignation, with 64% believing he should take responsibility and step down, intensified market pressure.
Netanyahu dismissed National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Hanegbi's dismissal was part of Netanyahu's effort to maintain control, but widespread resignations of other officials increased pressure on Netanyahu to step down.
Israel Democracy Institute poll: 64% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should bear responsibility and resign
December 31 rises to 64%2%
A poll showed 64% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for October 7 and resign, significantly increasing public pressure for his resignation.
Top Israeli security officials resign after Hamas attack failures
December 31 rises to 48%4%
Following the October 7 Hamas assault, many senior military and intelligence officials resigned or requested early retirement, citing responsibility for the failures. Netanyahu remained the only senior official not to resign, which maintained uncertainty about his political future and influenced market fluctuations.
Majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after October 7 attack
Following the anniversary of the Hamas attack, polls showed a majority of Israelis wanting Netanyahu to resign as a way of accepting responsibility, intensifying political pressure and market expectations of his potential departure.
US President Trump calls for pardon of Netanyahu amid Gaza war climax
December 31 jumps to 67%13%
On the day the final Israeli captives returned from Gaza, US President Donald Trump addressed the Israeli Knesset and called for a pardon for Netanyahu, highlighting international attention on Netanyahu's political survival amid the war's pressures. This event coincided with a peak in market probability for Netanyahu stepping down.
Poll: 45% of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after Oct. 7 massacre
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 45% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for the October 7 attack and resign immediately, contributing to public pressure on his leadership.
Polls show majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign over war responsibility
December 31 dips to 44%2%
Polls conducted in mid-September to October revealed that a majority of Israelis believed Netanyahu should resign either immediately or after the war, reflecting public dissatisfaction with his handling of the conflict and October 7 failures. This sentiment contributed to a decline in market confidence around early October.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 45%1%
Hanegbi's dismissal marked another top official stepping down after the October 7 Hamas attack, adding to a wave of resignations that pressured Netanyahu to remain in office amid security failures.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after war
December 31 dips to 43%1%
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute revealed that a majority of Israelis wanted the war to end and also believed Netanyahu should resign either immediately or after the war as a way of accepting responsibility for the October 7 failures. This increased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Netanyahu tightens security at Israeli missions worldwide after DC embassy shooting
December 31 jumps to 60%13%
Following a deadly antisemitic shooting targeting Israeli embassy staff in Washington, Netanyahu increased security measures globally, highlighting rising tensions and security concerns that contributed to political instability and market uncertainty about his tenure.
Poll finds 64% of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign over Oct 7 failures
December 31 surges to 60%16%
A poll released by the Israel Democracy Institute showed that 45 % of Israelis thought Netanyahu should resign immediately and another 19 % after the war, pushing the market’s “December 31” probability up sharply as the public pressure on the premier intensified.
IDI poll: 45% of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after Oct. 7 massacre
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 45% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for the October 7 attack and resign immediately, increasing public pressure on him.
Hostage families protest outside Netanyahu's home demanding war end and resignation
Families of hostages held by Hamas held a Sukkot meal in front of Netanyahu's residence, demanding the war end and Netanyahu resign, reflecting growing public pressure for accountability after two years of conflict.
Poll shows 64 % of Israelis call for Netanyahu’s resignation
December 31 jumps to 55%11%
A survey released by the Israel Democracy Institute (reported by ABC News) showed that 64 % of Israelis now think Netanyahu should resign, up sharply from previous months. The poll’s timing coincided with the lead‑up to the cease‑fire negotiations and amplified expectations of a leadership change, contributing to the market’s climb from 44 % on Sep 28 to 55 % on Oct 10.
Netanyahu faces far-right coalition rift over U.S. push to end Gaza war
December 31 jumps to 60%12%
Efforts by the U.S. to broker a ceasefire in Gaza created a rift within Netanyahu's far-right coalition, threatening a government collapse and raising the probability of early elections.
Ben-Gvir Threatens to Resign Over Hamas Survival After Ceasefire Agreement
December 31 jumps to 53%6%
Far-right Interior Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened to collapse the coalition government by resigning if Hamas remained in power post-ceasefire, raising the probability of early elections and Netanyahu's potential exit.
Itamar Ben-Gvir threatens to resign from cabinet over Hamas ceasefire terms
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Far-right Interior Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened to resign from the government if Hamas remains in power after the ceasefire agreement ends, highlighting fragile coalition dynamics.
Netanyahu faces far-right backlash amid Gaza war ceasefire pressure
December 31 jumps to 54%8%
Far-right ministers in Netanyahu's coalition threatened to collapse the government over concessions in the Gaza ceasefire, raising concerns about the stability of his administration and increasing speculation about his political future.
Israeli Interior Minister threatens to resign if Hamas survives ceasefire
December 31 rises to 48%2%
Interior Minister Itamar Ben-Giver threatened to resign from the cabinet if Hamas remains in power after the ceasefire, signaling fractures within Netanyahu's government and increasing political instability, which raised the likelihood of Netanyahu's resignation.
Israeli Interior Minister threatens resignation if Hamas survives post-ceasefire
Interior Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened to resign from Netanyahu's cabinet if Hamas remains in power after the ceasefire, signaling internal government tensions and raising doubts about Netanyahu's hold on power, which influenced market sentiment on Netanyahu's potential resignation by year-end.
Far-right coalition rift threatens Netanyahu government amid Gaza war
December 31 dips to 43%4%
A rift emerged within Netanyahu's far-right coalition over concessions to end the Gaza war, raising fears the government could collapse before the 2026 elections. This uncertainty pressured the market on Netanyahu's political survival.
Israeli Interior Minister Ben-Gvir threatens resignation over Hamas ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Ben-Gvir threatened to resign from Netanyahu's cabinet if Hamas remains in power after the ceasefire, highlighting fractures within Netanyahu's far-right coalition and increasing political instability, which raised the perceived chance of Netanyahu stepping down by December 31.
Netanyahu says Israel and Hamas are on the brink of a hostage deal
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Netanyahu announced progress toward a hostage release deal with Hamas, raising market optimism about a diplomatic breakthrough and potential political consequences for Netanyahu.
Trump hosts Netanyahu, unveils 20-point peace plan amid Gaza withdrawal talks
December 31 rises to 47%3%
President Trump hosted Netanyahu and presented a 20-point peace plan, with Israel agreeing to an initial Gaza withdrawal line and Hamas accepting a prisoner exchange. These diplomatic efforts affected market sentiment about Netanyahu's political stability and prospects.
Trump hosts Netanyahu for 20-point peace plan; Israel agrees to initial Gaza withdrawal
December 31 jumps to 57%9%
President Trump hosted Netanyahu and unveiled a 20-point peace plan, leading to Israel agreeing to an initial withdrawal line in Gaza while Hamas accepted a prisoner exchange. This diplomatic development increased market uncertainty about Netanyahu's leadership.
Netanyahu’s surprise appointment of Gen. Roman Goffman as Mossad chief sparks internal uproar
December 31 jumps to 52%5%
On October 4, 2025, Netanyahu appointed General Roman Goffman as Mossad chief, bypassing recommended candidates and sparking criticism within the intelligence community. This controversial decision raised concerns about Netanyahu's political control and stability, influencing market confidence in his tenure.
Netanyahu's Gaza offensive plans spark domestic and international backlash
December 31 jumps to 57%9%
Plans for an expanded Gaza offensive drew anger both domestically and internationally, contributing to political pressure on Netanyahu and influencing market sentiment about his leadership stability.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire oversight
December 31 surges to 73%20%
Netanyahu announced he would join President Trump's Board of Peace, a move that signaled a significant shift in Israel's diplomatic posture and increased focus on the Gaza peace process, contributing to a sharp rise in market price.
Knesset advances death penalty bill for Palestinian prisoners
December 31 jumps to 52%5%
The National Security Committee of the Knesset approved a bill allowing courts to impose the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of killing Israelis, reflecting Netanyahu's hardline policies and sparking diplomatic and humanitarian concerns.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer announces resignation
December 31 dips to 44%3%
Ron Dermer, a close confidant and key negotiator for Netanyahu, announced his resignation, signaling cracks in Netanyahu's government and raising concerns about coalition stability. This event likely contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 54%10%
Netanyahu approved the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and potentially bolstering his political standing. This coincided with a rise in the December 31 resignation probability from 44% to 54%.
Netanyahu attends joint press conference with US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
Netanyahu's high-profile meeting with US President Trump in Washington, DC, projected unity and stability, potentially reassuring markets about his continued premiership.
Netanyahu addresses UN General Assembly, vows to finish job against Hamas
December 31 rises to 48%4%
At the UN General Assembly, Netanyahu reaffirmed his commitment to his policies and condemned endorsements of Palestinian statehood, reflecting his political stance and determination to maintain leadership, which influenced market sentiment.
Netanyahu vows to 'finish the job' at UN amid Gaza assault
At the UN General Assembly, Netanyahu expressed determination to continue military operations in Gaza despite mounting diplomatic pressure and international criticism, reflecting his resolve to maintain power and influence. This speech highlighted his political stance during a critical period, impacting market perceptions of his tenure.
Netanyahu’s U.N. speech prompts walkout amid war crimes allegations
December 31 jumps to 57%13%
Netanyahu's speech at the U.N. General Assembly, amid an ICC arrest warrant and international criticism over Gaza war actions, intensified political pressure and international isolation, contributing to market uncertainty about his political future.
Poll shows 64% of Israelis demand Netanyahu's resignation
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute revealed that 64% of Israelis believed Netanyahu should resign, either immediately or after the war, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction and increasing pressure on Netanyahu's leadership.
Israel Democracy Institute poll: 64% of Israelis demand Netanyahu resignation
December 31 jumps to 60%13%
A major poll by the Israel Democracy Institute revealed 64% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for the October 7 attack and resign, either immediately (45%) or after the war (19%), significantly increasing pressure for his departure.
Israel Democracy Institute poll: 45% of Israelis think Netanyahu should take responsibility and resign immediately
Poll showing significant public support for Netanyahu's resignation increased market pressure, with 45% supporting immediate resignation and 19% supporting resignation after the war ends.
Bezalel Smotrich threatens resignation over Hamas ceasefire deal
Finance Minister Smotrich signaled he would resign if Netanyahu approved a ceasefire with Hamas, adding pressure on Netanyahu's leadership during ongoing war.
Netanyahu presents 'Greater Israel' map during UN address amid legal troubles
December 31 rises to 45%1%
During a UN speech, Netanyahu presented a map of 'Greater Israel' while facing ongoing legal challenges over illicit gifts, adding to political controversy and public scrutiny.
Public opinion polls show majority of Israelis demand Netanyahu's resignation
December 31 rises to 47%3%
In early September 2025, polls revealed that over 70% of Israelis wanted Netanyahu to resign, blaming him for national crises, which increased market anticipation of his stepping down by the end of 2026.
Israel confirms death of Hamas spokesman in August airstrike
December 31 dips to 43%3%
The confirmation that a senior Hamas spokesman was killed in an Israeli strike reduced speculation that Netanyahu might step down amid war pressures, nudging the market slightly lower as the conflict appeared to intensify without leadership changes.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional energy power and contributed to regional stability, which likely increased confidence in his political longevity, reflected in a slight price rise.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
A 14‑year‑old yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during a massive protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted growing domestic tension and the reliance on religious parties, increasing speculation of his possible resignation.
Hamas confirms death of spokesman after Israeli strike
December 31 dips to 44%3%
Hamas publicly confirmed the death of its longtime spokesman following an Israeli strike in August, highlighting ongoing conflict tensions. This event coincided with a slight market dip for Netanyahu's December 31 resignation probability, reflecting increased regional instability.
Israeli bus accident kills ultra-Orthodox teen amid draft protests
December 31 dips to 44%3%
A bus driver ran over and killed a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, escalating tensions in Israel. Netanyahu called for calm, highlighting the political sensitivity of the issue and its potential impact on his coalition support.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 rises to 48%2%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over him during a large protest against the draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted mounting domestic pressure on his government, nudging the market upward.
Boston mayoral candidate Josh Kraft calls for Netanyahu’s resignation
On August 27, Josh Kraft publicly stated that Netanyahu "has to go" as Israel’s prime minister, reflecting growing international calls for his exit and contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu government faces election year amid fallout from October 7 massacre
December 31 dips to 45%2%
As Israel entered an election year, Netanyahu's government was under pressure due to the October 7 massacre and its aftermath, including unkept promises and political divisions. This context raised doubts about his political future, influencing market expectations for his potential resignation by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position. While a positive economic move, it had limited direct impact on the market for his resignation, with a slight price increase from 45% to 47%.
Josh Kraft publicly calls for Netanyahu to resign as Prime Minister
December 31 rises to 47%1%
On August 27, Boston mayoral candidate Josh Kraft, known for his family's strong support of Israel, publicly stated that Netanyahu "has to go" due to the unacceptable situation in Gaza. This high-profile call added to the mounting public and political pressure on Netanyahu.
Public and political calls for Netanyahu’s resignation intensify amid Gaza war
Calls for Netanyahu to resign grew louder, including from prominent figures and protests, but Netanyahu remained defiant, maintaining his position. This sustained market price near 47%, reflecting persistent doubts about his departure by year-end.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu dismissed Tzachi Hanegbi, the head of the National Security Council, amid widespread resignations and dismissals of top officials following the October 7 Hamas attack. This move underscored Netanyahu's isolation and increased market expectations of his potential resignation by December 31.
Netanyahu irks internet by nominating Trump for Nobel Peace Prize
On August 26, 2025, Netanyahu publicly nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, a move that drew criticism and highlighted his active political positioning. This event contributed to market reassessment of Netanyahu's political strategy and stability.
Former PM Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu of treason over Qatar funding scandal
December 31 jumps to 52%5%
In late August 2025, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu of treason related to alleged Qatari funding to his aides during wartime, intensifying political pressure and calls for Netanyahu's resignation. This scandal increased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by the end of 2026.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after war
December 31 jumps to 56%9%
A poll published in late August 2025 revealed that 45% of Israelis believed Netanyahu should resign immediately for the October 7 failures, with another 19% supporting resignation after the war ends. This public sentiment increased market expectations for Netanyahu stepping down by December 31, 2025.
Netanyahu shifts strategy on Gaza ceasefire amid confusion and protests
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu announced a shift from partial to comprehensive ceasefire negotiations after Hamas acceptance, but his mixed messaging caused confusion and dissatisfaction among Israelis and mediators. This uncertainty contributed to market doubts about his political stability and potential resignation.
Benny Gantz offers to join Netanyahu government to secure hostage deal and set 2026 election
Opposition leader Benny Gantz proposed forming a government focused on securing hostage returns and conscription legislation, signaling political pressure on Netanyahu's leadership and potential government changes.
Netanyahu announces resumption of Gaza hostage negotiations but continues military campaign
December 31 rises to 47%2%
On August 22, Netanyahu declared resuming indirect negotiations with Hamas for hostages while maintaining military operations in Gaza City, reflecting a complex stance that stabilized market prices around 46-47%.
Netanyahu announces restart of indirect hostage negotiations but continues Gaza invasion
December 31 rises to 47%2%
On August 22, Netanyahu declared he would resume indirect talks with Hamas to free hostages but insisted on continuing the military campaign in Gaza. This mixed approach maintained political pressure without signaling imminent resignation, stabilizing market prices around 47%.
Critics accuse Netanyahu of prolonging Gaza war, ignoring hostage negotiations
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Opposition and hostage families criticized Netanyahu for prioritizing military solutions over negotiated hostage releases, questioning his leadership. This criticism contributed to market doubts about his political longevity but did not trigger immediate resignation signals.
Netanyahu orders hostage negotiations amid Gaza City offensive
December 31 dips to 45%1%
On August 21, Netanyahu publicly ordered negotiations for hostage release while advancing Gaza City operations, indicating a complex balancing act between military objectives and political survival, which maintained market uncertainty about his resignation.
Netanyahu orders immediate hostage negotiations amid Gaza City offensive
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu ordered negotiations for hostage release while advancing the Gaza City operation, signaling a critical juncture but no indication of resignation. Market prices remained low, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and political entrenchment.
Netanyahu orders start of Gaza ceasefire negotiations and hostage release talks
December 31 rises to 47%1%
On August 21, 2025, Netanyahu announced the initiation of ceasefire negotiations and efforts to release hostages in Gaza, signaling a potential shift in strategy. However, this did not translate into increased market confidence in his resignation, as he remained in office and in control.
Netanyahu escalates attacks on international critics amid diplomatic tensions
Netanyahu publicly criticized foreign leaders, including Australia's prime minister, escalating diplomatic tensions and isolating Israel internationally. This combative posture suggested Netanyahu's intent to maintain power despite mounting pressures, further lowering market expectations of his resignation.
Netanyahu orders immediate negotiations to release hostages as Gaza operation advances
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu publicly emphasized efforts to secure a comprehensive agreement for hostage release and war end, signaling a critical juncture that may affect his political future and market perceptions of his tenure.
Smotrich Threatens to Resign and Collapse Coalition Over Any Ceasefire Deal
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich issued an ultimatum to resign if Netanyahu approves a ceasefire, highlighting the fragile state of the governing coalition.
Coalition tensions rise as ministers threaten resignation over ceasefire
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to resign if Netanyahu approved a ceasefire deal, highlighting internal government fractures and instability. This ongoing political turmoil contributed to sustained market doubts about Netanyahu's longevity, with prices around 45-47%.
Finance Minister threatens resignation if Netanyahu approves ceasefire with Hamas
December 31 rises to 47%2%
On August 20, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warned he would resign if Netanyahu approved a ceasefire deal with Hamas, highlighting internal government tensions. This underscored Netanyahu's precarious political position but also his resolve to maintain power, keeping market probability for resignation low around 45-47%.
Netanyahu signals continued leadership amid Gaza war and hostage negotiations
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Despite international criticism and internal dissent, Netanyahu emphasized ongoing negotiations for hostages and military operations in Gaza, stabilizing market expectations around 45-47% for his resignation by year-end.
Finance Minister Smotrich warns he will resign if Netanyahu backs Gaza ceasefire
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he would quit if Netanyahu approved a Gaza ceasefire. The threat of a high‑profile cabinet split heightened speculation that Netanyahu’s coalition could crumble, nudging the “December 31” probability upward in late August.
Finance Minister Smotrich threatens resignation if Netanyahu approves ceasefire with Hamas
On August 20, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared he would resign if Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire deal with Hamas, signaling deep fractures within the coalition and raising doubts about Netanyahu's political stability, contributing to sustained low market confidence around 45-47%.
Netanyahu defends Gaza occupation plan in UK podcast amid domestic protests
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Despite widespread protests and calls for a ceasefire, Netanyahu reaffirmed his commitment to the Gaza occupation plan, signaling no intention to resign soon. This stance stabilized market expectations around his continued tenure.
Netanyahu faces coalition tensions as ultra-Orthodox parties withdraw support
December 31 rises to 47%2%
In August 2025, Netanyahu's government lost support from ultra-Orthodox parties over military exemption legislation, increasing political instability and raising the likelihood of early elections or leadership change, which influenced market pricing upward for Netanyahu's exit by end 2026.
Netanyahu accuses Australian PM Albanese of betrayal amid rising tensions
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu publicly criticized Australian PM Anthony Albanese following Australia's announcement to recognize a Palestinian state, highlighting Netanyahu's isolation and defiance. This reinforced market sentiment that Netanyahu was unlikely to resign soon.
Netanyahu launches personal attack on Australian PM Albanese amid diplomatic tensions
December 31 dips to 46%1%
Netanyahu's public criticism of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese marked escalating diplomatic isolation and controversy, reflecting growing political pressures but no direct indication of resignation plans.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite prior criticism
On August 18, 2025, Netanyahu agreed to join the Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing the Gaza ceasefire plan, indicating his continued political engagement and leadership. This decision likely contributed to the market's stabilization around a lower probability of resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu continues to engage in international diplomacy and peace efforts
Netanyahu's ongoing involvement in international diplomacy, including participation in peace process discussions and meetings with global leaders, reinforced his position as Prime Minister and contributed to the market's reduced probability of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Hamas submits new ceasefire and hostage release proposal amid Gaza conflict
December 31 rises to 47%2%
On August 18, Hamas submitted a new ceasefire and hostage release proposal, indicating some negotiation potential. However, Netanyahu's firm military approach and coalition challenges kept market confidence low, with prices stable around 45-47%.
Netanyahu's Likud party sources claim opposition too cooperative after Oct. 7 failures
A Likud party source claimed the opposition had been too cooperative, suggesting Netanyahu's internal political efforts to prevent ministerial resignations were successful in securing his premiership.
Netanyahu's Likud party reports opposition too cooperative, would have been more aggressive if roles reversed
Internal party reports suggesting Netanyahu's efforts to prevent his own ministers from resigning provided some 'breathing room' and influenced market perceptions of his stability.
Thousands of Israelis Join Nationwide Strike and Protests Over Hostages
A massive nationwide strike and widespread protests blocked major highways as families of hostages demanded that Netanyahu's government reach an immediate truce with Hamas.
Mass protests in Tel Aviv demand ceasefire and hostages' return
Tens of thousands of Israelis protested against Netanyahu's government, accusing it of turning Israel into a pariah state and demanding a ceasefire in Gaza, signaling domestic unrest and weakening Netanyahu's position.
Far-right coalition pledges Gaza occupation despite risks, Netanyahu faces internal dissent
December 31 dips to 45%3%
By mid-August, Netanyahu's far-right coalition committed to occupying Palestinian enclaves despite risks to hostages, provoking rebellion within his government. This internal conflict signaled political instability, affecting market confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Coalition fractures and calls for Netanyahu resignation grow amid Gaza war
December 31 dips to 46%2%
By mid-August, Netanyahu's coalition was fracturing with rising calls for his resignation and opposition figures gaining strength, increasing market doubts about his remaining in office through year-end.
Israeli public and military tensions rise amid Gaza war and Netanyahu’s leadership
December 31 rises to 47%2%
By mid-August, internal Israeli tensions increased with public protests and military dissent over Netanyahu’s Gaza war strategy. Despite criticism, most Israelis still supported his leadership, which stabilized market expectations around his remaining in office through the year.
Internal Israeli military tensions rise over Gaza occupation plans
December 31 dips to 45%1%
By mid-August, reports emerged of IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir opposing Netanyahu's Gaza occupation plans, sparking calls for his resignation. This internal conflict highlighted political instability but did not translate into Netanyahu's resignation prospects improving, as market prices remained low.
Critics accuse Netanyahu of prolonging Gaza war for political survival
December 31 dips to 45%3%
By mid-August, critics including political figures and commentators accused Netanyahu of extending the conflict to maintain power, fueling public and political opposition that pressured his leadership.
Israeli public distracted as Netanyahu consolidates power amid Gaza war
December 31 rises to 47%2%
By mid-August, despite ongoing Gaza conflict and public protests, Netanyahu consolidated power by purging generals and maintaining support among his coalition. This political resilience contributed to the market stabilizing around 45-47% for his resignation, indicating persistent uncertainty but no imminent departure.
Israel objects to U.S. announcement of Gaza executive committee
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Israel’s government, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the U.S. announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza’s next steps, stating the committee was not coordinated with Israel and contrary to its policy. This assertion of control and political agency by Netanyahu’s government indicated his continued leadership role, reinforcing market confidence against his imminent resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 48%1%
Netanyahu's approval of a major natural gas export deal to Egypt demonstrated his ongoing leadership in regional economic and diplomatic affairs, reinforcing perceptions of his political stability and slightly stabilizing market expectations after prior declines.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 rises to 48%3%
Top U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed for progress on the second phase of the Gaza cease‑fire, signaling heightened international scrutiny and potential diplomatic strain that could destabilize his government before the year‑end deadline.
Netanyahu defends Gaza occupation plan amid international condemnation
December 31 jumps to 47%6%
By August 13, Netanyahu publicly defended his plan to occupy Gaza City despite mounting global criticism, signaling his resolve to remain in power and pursue his policies. This stance contributed to a partial recovery in market confidence but kept overall resignation probability lower than early July levels.
Netanyahu asserts commitment to victory amid criticism
December 31 rises to 47%2%
On August 13, Netanyahu publicly reaffirmed his commitment to victory in the Gaza conflict, dismissing criticism from former security officials. This statement reinforced his determination to stay in office and continue his policies, contributing to market stabilization at lower resignation probabilities.
Poll shows Likud slipping amid coalition fears, Netanyahu considers satellite party
Polls indicated declining support for Netanyahu's Likud party and fears of coalition collapse, increasing speculation about his political future but no immediate resignation, reflecting market uncertainty.
New Zealand PM says Netanyahu has 'lost the plot' amid Gaza crisis
December 31 dips to 45%2%
On August 13, New Zealand's Prime Minister publicly criticized Netanyahu's leadership, reflecting growing international isolation and political pressure. This contributed to sustained low market confidence in Netanyahu's continuation, with prices remaining near 45%.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida to discuss Iran and Gaza
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu held talks with Trump focusing on Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, reinforcing his active political role and diminishing market expectations of his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu assumes duties of resigned ministers despite legal concerns
December 31 drops to 47%7%
Netanyahu took over the posts of ministers who resigned from the Shas party and United Torah Judaism bloc, violating Israeli law and highlighting the fragility and legal challenges within his government, contributing to market doubts about his tenure.
Criticism mounts over Netanyahu's Gaza policy and Greater Israel ambitions
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Commentary and reports highlighted Netanyahu's plans to reoccupy Gaza and pursue a Greater Israel vision, intensifying domestic and international criticism and raising concerns about his political sustainability, coinciding with a sharp market price drop.
Public criticism mounts over Netanyahu's handling of security failures after Oct. 7 attacks
In August 2025, reports and public criticism highlighted Netanyahu's failure to adequately manage security before and after the October 7 Hamas attacks, leading to declining popularity and increased political pressure. This contributed to the market's initial low confidence in Netanyahu's tenure continuation.
Market sharply drops amid rising political opposition and coalition fractures
December 31 plunges to 38%16%
On August 11, 2025, the market price for Netanyahu's resignation dropped sharply from 54% to 38%, reflecting increased political pressure including public calls for resignation by opposition figures like Naftali Bennett and coalition instability.
Criticism mounts as Netanyahu's Gaza policy likened to 'Greater Israel' messianic fantasy
December 31 plunges to 38%16%
On August 11, international and local criticism intensified, with commentators accusing Netanyahu of pursuing a policy aimed at emptying Gaza of Palestinians. This negative attention contributed to a market trough, reflecting doubts about his political longevity.
Netanyahu faces accusations of prolonging Gaza war for political gain
December 31 drops to 45%8%
ABC News reported that even Netanyahu's biggest backer, Donald Trump, questioned his claims about Gaza, adding pressure on Netanyahu's leadership.
Netanyahu assumes duties of resigned ministers despite legal concerns
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Netanyahu took over ministerial roles from resigned Shas and UTJ ministers, defying legal norms but demonstrating his intent to maintain control, which further lowered market confidence in his resignation by year-end.
U.N. declares famine in Gaza, Netanyahu restarts hostage talks
December 31 plunges to 38%17%
The U.N. declared a famine in Gaza, contradicting Netanyahu's claims of no starvation, while he announced indirect negotiations with Hamas to return hostages.
Netanyahu pushes for full conquest of Gaza as ceasefire talks stall
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Reports indicated Netanyahu was committed to a military defeat of Hamas and urged security cabinet support for full conquest of Gaza, signaling a hardline stance that may affect his political standing amid ongoing conflict.
Netanyahu's Gaza City plan faces international condemnation
December 31 drops to 42%11%
The cabinet decision to take control of Gaza City drew criticism from the international community, including former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert, intensifying the political crisis.
New York Times: Netanyahu government cannot continue with Gaza strategy
Senator Patty Murray delivered a strong rebuke of Netanyahu's Gaza policies, highlighting the growing bipartisan opposition to his approach and contributing to market uncertainty.
Opposition Slams Netanyahu Following Back-to-Back Press Conferences
December 31 drops to 42%12%
Opposition leaders fiercely criticized Netanyahu's public statements on the war and his instructions to the IDF, accusing him of prioritizing personal political survival over the release of hostages.
Netanyahu defends Gaza City seizure plan amid global condemnation
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Netanyahu publicly defended Israel's plan to seize Gaza City despite international and domestic criticism, including from hostage families. This deepened political isolation and raised doubts about his ability to maintain coalition support.
Democrats rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war strategy
December 31 dips to 43%4%
A strong rebuke from U.S. Senator Patty Murray highlighted growing bipartisan opposition to Netanyahu's Gaza policies, adding diplomatic pressure that may have influenced market sentiment.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protests
December 31 jumps to 45%6%
Following the death of a teenage boy during ultra-Orthodox protests, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal social tensions but Netanyahu's active leadership in crisis management likely reassured some market participants, causing a partial price rebound from 39% to 45%.
Netanyahu accused of prolonging Gaza war to save political career
December 31 dips to 45%2%
ABC News reported that Netanyahu faced accusations of prolonging the war to save his own political career, with US allies questioning his commitment to ending the conflict.
Netanyahu Faces Intense Coalition Pressure Following Gaza Occupation Announcement
December 31 dips to 47%3%
The announcement of the gradual occupation of Gaza triggered severe domestic crises, leading observers to question the long-term survival of Netanyahu's governing coalition.
Netanyahu Faces Intense Pressure From Far-Right Coalition Partners Over Gaza Plan
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Following the Gaza City takeover announcement, Netanyahu faced intense pressure from far-right partners who hold the key to his coalition's survival, raising questions about whether his government can last until October 2026.
Netanyahu defends Gaza City takeover plan amid global condemnation
December 31 drops to 38%12%
Netanyahu publicly defended the Gaza City operation, emphasizing Israel’s overriding security responsibility and dismissing international criticism. This hardened position coincided with a market trough at 38%, reflecting increased doubts about his resignation prospects.
Netanyahu’s Gaza policy criticized as pursuing 'Greater Israel' agenda
December 31 drops to 41%13%
On August 11, critical commentary emerged accusing Netanyahu of pursuing a 'Greater Israel' agenda through harsh Gaza policies, intensifying domestic and international criticism. This led to a sharp drop in market confidence about his resignation by year-end, reflected in a 13-point price fall.
Netanyahu joins Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
Netanyahu agreed to join Trump's Board of Peace, a move that may have created internal political tensions within his coalition. This decision could have contributed to the market's sharp decline to 41% on August 11.
Netanyahu Faces Intense Backlash and Low Polls Over Gaza Occupation Plan
December 31 plunges to 39%15%
The market experienced a sharp drop to its lowest point of 38% as public anger, protests from hostage families, and international condemnation intensified following the Gaza City takeover approval.
New poll shows 62% of Israelis lost confidence in Netanyahu
December 31 drops to 47%8%
A poll revealing 62% of Israelis believe Netanyahu's government has lost public confidence contributed to market skepticism about his ability to remain in office.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu heads for US meeting
December 31 drops to 45%5%
On August 11, 2025, severe winter rains flooded Gaza camps, highlighting ongoing humanitarian challenges. Netanyahu traveled to the US for talks with President Trump about the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, signaling his active role in regional diplomacy and reducing market expectations of his resignation.
Netanyahu Defends Gaza City Takeover Plan Amid Mass Domestic Protests
December 31 dips to 45%3%
Netanyahu held a major press conference doubling down on the Gaza City occupation plan despite international condemnation and protests by over 100,000 Israelis demanding a hostage deal.
Netanyahu reveals extreme vision for Gaza in foreign press conference
December 31 drops to 48%6%
Netanyahu outlined a hardline military and political strategy for Gaza, dismissing negotiated hostage releases and signaling a prolonged conflict. This stance likely diminished market confidence in his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu defends Israel's plan to seize Gaza City despite global condemnation
December 31 dips to 45%1%
Netanyahu publicly doubled down on his plan to seize Gaza City and displace its population, rejecting international criticism and ceasefire calls. This hardened stance amidst humanitarian crisis concerns maintained downward pressure on market confidence, with prices remaining low around 45-47%.
Netanyahu outlines expanded military strategy for Gaza amid criticism
December 31 drops to 45%9%
On August 10, 2025, Netanyahu publicly defended a wider military offensive in Gaza and rejected international criticism, reinforcing his hardline stance. This diminished market expectations of his resignation as he appeared determined to continue his policies despite opposition.
Netanyahu Vows to Fight On and Rejects Delays in Ultra-Orthodox Conscription
December 31 plunges to 39%15%
In a major press conference, Netanyahu defended his war strategy, criticized international arms restrictions, and rejected claims that he was stalling ultra-Orthodox enlistment for political survival.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 drops to 45%5%
U.S. officials pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the cease‑fire plan, highlighting diplomatic friction and uncertainty over the timeline for ending hostilities, which contributed to a further price drop.
Netanyahu defends Gaza City occupation plan amid global backlash
December 31 drops to 45%9%
On August 10, Netanyahu publicly defended his plan to seize Gaza City despite widespread international condemnation and calls for ceasefire, reinforcing his commitment to military strategy and diminishing prospects of resignation. Market prices fell sharply to 45%.
Netanyahu hopes Gaza operation decision buys him time amid rising pressure
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Netanyahu aimed to use the decision to occupy Gaza City to buy political breathing room, but rising global and domestic pressure continued to mount. The uncertainty about his ability to maintain power amid these pressures contributed to market volatility and a decline in resignation probability.
Netanyahu defends Gaza City seizure plan despite global condemnation
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Netanyahu publicly defended his plan to seize Gaza City, emphasizing military objectives and rejecting accusations of genocide. His firm stance amid global criticism signaled no intention to resign, contributing to further market decline in resignation probability.
Netanyahu outlines military and political strategy for Gaza in press conference
December 31 drops to 42%13%
In a detailed press conference, Netanyahu revealed his vision for Gaza's future and emphasized a military solution, rejecting claims of delaying ultra-Orthodox conscription. This reinforced perceptions of his firm grip on policy but also highlighted ongoing political challenges, contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Opposition accuses Netanyahu of failed leadership amid Gaza war and political turmoil
December 31 drops to 46%8%
Israeli opposition leaders publicly condemned Netanyahu's leadership, accusing him of prioritizing political interests over national security and calling for a deal to end the war. This public dissent reflected growing internal pressure and contributed to the market's declining confidence in Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address escalating settler violence in West Bank
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Netanyahu met with security officials to discuss rising Israeli settler violence, a politically sensitive issue that strains his coalition and public support. The unresolved tensions and criticism from both sides likely contributed to a sharp drop in market confidence regarding his continued tenure.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on surge of West Bank settler violence
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Facing criticism over increasing settler attacks, Netanyahu held a high‑level security meeting, underscoring domestic instability and further eroding confidence in his tenure, contributing to the market’s slide to the low‑40s.
Netanyahu outlines extreme military vision for Gaza in press conference
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Netanyahu revealed a hardline postwar Gaza strategy, emphasizing military solutions despite criticism and hostage release negotiations. This reinforced his commitment to remain in power, contributing to a further decline in resignation probability.
Netanyahu vows to end Gaza war quickly amid mounting domestic criticism
December 31 drops to 48%6%
In a press conference, Netanyahu expressed determination to shorten the timeline for capturing Gaza City and end the war, responding to public and political pressure. Despite this, opposition and public protests continued, reflecting ongoing dissatisfaction and uncertainty about his leadership.
Netanyahu hopes military actions buy time amid rising pressure
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Netanyahu aimed to use military operations in Gaza to buy political time, but rising global and domestic pressure continued to threaten his position, contributing to the market's declining confidence in his staying power through 2026.
Netanyahu announces new Gaza offensive, rejects occupation goal
December 31 drops to 43%11%
Netanyahu declared a new Gaza offensive aiming for a security belt but denied intentions to occupy Gaza, reinforcing his hardline stance. This military approach suggested Netanyahu's commitment to his current policies, reducing market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Israel's government publicly objected to the US-led executive committee overseeing Gaza's next steps, signaling political friction but with Netanyahu backing the stance. This tension may have caused uncertainty about Netanyahu's political stability, contributing to a sharp price drop from 54% to 45%.
Settler violence surges in West Bank with 29 attacks documented
December 31 drops to 48%7%
A spike in Israeli settler attacks on Palestinian property and vehicles, including a fire at a scrapyard, raised concerns about ongoing instability and Netanyahu's ability to manage domestic security.
Netanyahu doubles down on Gaza offensive plan amid criticism
December 31 drops to 45%9%
On August 10, Netanyahu publicly reaffirmed his plan for a new Gaza offensive and military control, rejecting calls to back down. This hardened stance amid growing criticism further reduced market confidence in his remaining in office, with prices around 45%.
Netanyahu vows to end war quickly, shortens Gaza City capture timeline
December 31 jumps to 47%9%
Netanyahu publicly committed to ending the war as soon as possible and accelerated military plans, attempting to manage political fallout. Despite this, public and coalition pressures persisted, with market prices remaining low around 38-47%.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, including demilitarization and reconstruction, highlighting ongoing political engagement and Netanyahu’s leadership role, which likely lowered resignation odds.
Germany to halt arms exports to Israel after meeting with Netanyahu
December 31 drops to 38%7%
Netanyahu met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who announced a German arms embargo on Israel. The diplomatic rebuke was widely reported and coincided with the market’s trough at 38 % on Aug 11, indicating heightened concern over Netanyahu’s international isolation.
Netanyahu faces broad criticism after Gaza City takeover plan
December 31 dips to 45%3%
Following the announcement of the Gaza City takeover plan, Netanyahu faced widespread criticism domestically and internationally, including accusations of endangering hostages and Palestinians. Despite this, he maintained his position, reflecting political resilience and reducing market expectations of his resignation.
Gaza ceasefire talks reach impasse as Netanyahu pushes for full conquest
December 31 dips to 51%3%
Senior officials close to Netanyahu confirmed the decision for full conquest of Gaza, with the Chief of Staff reportedly facing resignation pressure if he opposes the plan, indicating serious internal divisions.
Netanyahu defends Gaza City occupation plan amid mounting international condemnation
December 31 drops to 48%6%
Netanyahu publicly defended his plan for military occupation of Gaza City despite widespread international criticism, reinforcing his hardline stance and reducing market expectations of his resignation.
Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Netanyahu's Plan to Occupy Gaza City
December 31 drops to 48%6%
The security cabinet approved a phased military takeover of Gaza City. This major escalation satisfied far-right coalition partners, stabilizing Netanyahu's grip on power and driving down the probability of his early exit.
Netanyahu urges full conquest of Gaza amid ceasefire impasse
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Netanyahu publicly advocated for full conquest of Gaza, signaling a hardline military approach that intensified political pressure.
Netanyahu plans full takeover of Gaza City amid international backlash
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Netanyahu announced plans to seize Gaza City, facing strong international condemnation including halted military exports from European allies. This assertive military stance reinforced perceptions of Netanyahu's determination to continue his policies, reducing market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu defends Israel's plan to seize Gaza City despite global condemnation
December 31 drops to 45%6%
On August 8, 2025, Netanyahu publicly defended the plan to seize Gaza City amid widespread international criticism and calls for ceasefire. His firm stance amid mounting pressure further lowered market confidence in his resignation by year-end.
Haredi parties withdraw from Netanyahu's coalition amid conscription crisis
December 31 dips to 51%4%
United Torah Judaism and Noam withdrew from the coalition, while Shas withdrew from the government, fracturing Netanyahu's coalition and threatening his government's survival.
Israel approves plan to take control of Gaza City amid international condemnation
December 31 drops to 48%6%
On August 8, Netanyahu's government approved a plan to take control of Gaza City, escalating the conflict and drawing strong international criticism, including from European allies halting military exports. This hardened Netanyahu's position and reduced market expectations of his resignation, with prices dropping to around 48%.
Israeli security cabinet approves plan to take over Gaza City
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Netanyahu's security cabinet approved a plan to take control of Gaza City, escalating the conflict and drawing international condemnation. This move suggested Netanyahu's intent to continue his policies, lowering resignation odds.
Israel approves plan to occupy Gaza City amid ceasefire talks collapse
December 31 drops to 41%14%
On August 8, Netanyahu's security cabinet approved a plan to occupy Gaza City, further dashing ceasefire hopes and increasing international condemnation. This hardened Netanyahu's position, leading to a sharp market drop from 55% to 41% on August 11.
Israel announces plan to reoccupy Gaza City ruins
December 31 drops to 44%11%
Defense Minister Israel Katz announced a plan for Gaza City, described as a 'concentration camp' by former PM Ehud Olmert, marking a significant escalation in Israel's Gaza strategy and drawing strong opposition.
Netanyahu signals consideration of alternatives to ceasefire talks with Hamas
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Netanyahu announced Israel was considering alternative options to ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, increasing uncertainty about the conflict's resolution and adding to political pressures on his leadership.
Gaza medical authorities report nine more Palestinians died from malnutrition or starvation
December 31 drops to 44%11%
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza intensified, undermining Netanyahu's claims of no starvation and fueling public and international criticism of his war strategy.
International allies condemn Netanyahu's Gaza City takeover plan
December 31 jumps to 47%9%
On August 8, Netanyahu faced intense international backlash, including military export halts by Germany, over his Gaza City occupation plan, which heightened diplomatic isolation and political pressure, reflected in market price volatility.
Gaza medical authorities report mass starvation amid Netanyahu's Gaza campaign
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Medical authorities confirmed nine more Palestinians died from malnutrition, intensifying criticism of Netanyahu's military strategy and humanitarian impact. This fueled accusations of prolonging the war for political gain.
Israel's Security Cabinet Approves Netanyahu's Plan to Occupy Gaza City
December 31 dips to 54%1%
The security cabinet approved a phased military takeover of Gaza City, a move that drew heavy domestic and international criticism but solidified Netanyahu's alignment with far-right coalition partners.
Failed ceasefire talks increase pressure on Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 51%4%
By August 8, ceasefire negotiations with Hamas had collapsed, with Netanyahu blamed for hardline positions. This failure heightened domestic and international criticism, contributing to a decline in market confidence about his staying power.
Netanyahu criticized at home and abroad after new Gaza plan announcement
December 31 drops to 47%8%
On August 8, 2025, Netanyahu announced a Gaza plan that stopped short of full control but drew broad criticism domestically and internationally. This event reinforced doubts about his leadership and contributed to the market's declining confidence in his remaining in office through 2026.
Netanyahu broadly criticized at home and abroad after new Gaza plan announcement
December 31 drops to 47%8%
Netanyahu's announcement of a Gaza plan that stopped short of full control drew widespread criticism, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with his leadership and contributing to further decline in market confidence about his staying power.
Netanyahu criticized domestically and internationally after Gaza war plan announcement
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Following Netanyahu's announcement of a Gaza war plan that stopped short of full control but indicated intent, criticism mounted, reflecting political strain and contributing to a drop in market confidence for his staying in office.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protests
Netanyahu's call for restraint following the death of an ultra-Orthodox teenager during protests demonstrated his ongoing role in managing domestic crises, indicating he was still firmly in power and reducing market expectations of his resignation.
Hostage families urge Netanyahu to agree to ceasefire deal with Hamas
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Hostage families publicly pressured Netanyahu to negotiate a ceasefire, highlighting internal dissent and humanitarian concerns that undermined his position, influencing market perceptions of his political vulnerability.
Netanyahu announces plan for full conquest of Gaza amid ceasefire impasse
December 31 drops to 47%6%
Netanyahu declared intent to fully conquer Gaza despite opposition and risks to hostages, signaling a hardline approach that diminished market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu faces international condemnation over Gaza City takeover plan
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Netanyahu's plan to seize Gaza City drew intense international pushback, including from European allies halting military exports. This global condemnation highlighted Netanyahu's isolation but did not trigger immediate resignation, reflecting continued market skepticism about his stepping down.
Former PM Naftali Bennett Demands Netanyahu Resign Over 'Qatargate' Scandal
December 31 rises to 55%2%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's close associates of betraying Israel during wartime, arguing the Prime Minister has lost all moral authority to lead.
Netanyahu pushes Gaza ceasefire second phase with U.S. envoys
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, involving demilitarization and reconstruction. Netanyahu’s engagement in these complex negotiations suggested political stability and continuity, contributing to a decline in the market’s probability of his resignation by the end of 2026.
Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of betrayal, calls for resignation
December 31 dips to 53%2%
On August 7, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's associates of betraying Israel and stated Netanyahu lost moral authority to lead, increasing political pressure and speculation about Netanyahu's potential resignation, coinciding with a market dip.
Netanyahu announces plan to take control of Gaza City
December 31 drops to 48%6%
Netanyahu declared Israel's intention to take military control of Gaza City and the Gaza Strip, despite opposition from the IDF and international condemnation. This hardened stance increased political risks but showed Netanyahu's resolve to remain in power, causing market confidence in his resignation to decline.
Former PM Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of betraying Israel, calls for resignation
December 31 dips to 51%2%
Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's associates of betraying Israel during wartime and stated that Netanyahu lost moral authority to lead, intensifying domestic political pressure and undermining Netanyahu's position.
Netanyahu confirms Israel plans to take control of Gaza but not keep it long term
Netanyahu announced plans for Israel to take control of Gaza, intensifying the military conflict and political tensions. This announcement underscored Netanyahu's hardline stance, which may have alienated some political allies and increased domestic and international pressure on his government.
Netanyahu says Israel will take control of Gaza City
December 31 drops to 45%10%
Netanyahu announced that Israel intends to take military control of Gaza City, a plan approved by the security cabinet. The aggressive expansion sparked domestic and international criticism and coincided with the market’s sharp decline from 55 % to 45 % Yes between Aug 4 and Aug 9, suggesting traders saw the move as increasing political risk for Netanyahu’s tenure.
Netanyahu states Israel intends to take control of Gaza but not govern it
December 31 rises to 55%2%
In a Fox News interview, Netanyahu clarified Israel's intent to control Gaza without governing it, reflecting a nuanced position amid military plans. This statement tempered some fears of full occupation governance but maintained the hardline approach, sustaining market uncertainty.
Former PM Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of betraying Israel, calls for resignation
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's associates of betraying Israel during wartime and stated Netanyahu lost moral authority to lead, increasing internal political pressure. This event reflected growing domestic opposition but did not immediately increase resignation odds.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of betraying Israel, calls for resignation
December 31 dips to 45%2%
On August 7, 2025, Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's close associates of betraying Israel during wartime and stated that Netanyahu lost moral authority to lead, increasing political pressure on Netanyahu but without immediate effect on his position.
Israeli security cabinet approves Netanyahu's plan to occupy Gaza City
December 31 plunges to 38%17%
On August 7, Netanyahu's security cabinet approved a plan to occupy Gaza City, despite opposition from military officials and public protests, reinforcing Netanyahu's control but increasing political risks and international condemnation.
Netanyahu confirms Israel intends to take control of Gaza Strip
December 31 plunges to 38%17%
In a Fox News interview, Netanyahu stated Israel's intention to take control of Gaza, escalating the conflict and drawing international criticism, which increased political risks and uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu declares intent to take military control of all Gaza
December 31 dips to 53%2%
On August 7, Netanyahu publicly stated Israel's intention to take full military control of Gaza, rejecting ceasefire talks and escalating the conflict. This defiant stance amid growing humanitarian crisis and political opposition led to a further decline in market confidence in his resignation, with prices dropping to around 53%.
Bennett says Netanyahu’s aides ‘betrayed’ Israel and calls for PM’s resignation
December 31 drops to 48%7%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu’s aides of betraying Israel in the Qatargate scandal and said the prime minister must resign. The accusation heightened political pressure and coincided with a further slide in market odds from 55% to 48% over the following week.
Naftali Bennett Demands Netanyahu's Resignation Over Qatargate Treason Scandal
December 31 rises to 55%2%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly demanded Netanyahu's immediate resignation, accusing his close aides of acting as paid agents for Qatar during wartime.
Israel’s security cabinet approves Netanyahu plan to occupy Gaza City
December 31 drops to 45%8%
On August 7, Netanyahu's security cabinet approved a plan to militarily occupy Gaza City, escalating the conflict despite international and internal opposition. This decision intensified political tensions but showed Netanyahu's resolve to continue his policies, pushing the market price down to 45%.
Former PM Bennett calls for Netanyahu's resignation over Qatar scandal
December 31 dips to 51%4%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's aides of betraying Israel and claimed Netanyahu lost moral authority due to the Qatargate affair. This scandal intensified internal political pressure and market skepticism about Netanyahu's future.
Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of ‘betraying’ Israel, calls for resignation
December 31 jumps to 45%7%
Former PM Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu’s aides of betraying Israel in the Qatargate affair and urged the prime minister to resign. The accusation added internal coalition strain, matching the price rebound from 38 % to 45 % between Aug 11 and Aug 13.
Netanyahu plans Gaza City takeover amid internal and international opposition
December 31 plunges to 38%17%
Netanyahu announced plans to take military control of Gaza City and eventually the entire Gaza Strip, despite objections from the Israeli military and international condemnation. This assertive stance amid growing criticism reduced market expectations of his resignation by year-end 2026.
Former PM Naftali Bennett calls for Netanyahu’s resignation over Qatar affair
December 31 dips to 53%2%
On August 7, 2025, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu’s associates of betraying Israel and stated Netanyahu lost moral authority to lead, increasing domestic political pressure. However, this did not translate into immediate resignation expectations, reflected in market prices.
Netanyahu's security cabinet approves plan to occupy Gaza City
December 31 dips to 51%4%
Netanyahu's cabinet approved a plan to take military control of Gaza City, escalating the conflict and drawing international condemnation. This assertive move indicated Netanyahu's intent to continue his leadership through the conflict, reducing market expectations of his resignation by year-end.
Israeli cabinet weighs full Gaza occupation plan
December 31 rises to 55%2%
Reports on August 6 indicated Netanyahu's cabinet was considering a plan to fully occupy Gaza, focusing initially on Gaza City. This aggressive military approach increased tensions and reduced prospects for a ceasefire, reinforcing Netanyahu's hardline position and lowering market expectations for his resignation.
Israeli military chief opposes Netanyahu’s Gaza war expansion plan
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Israel's military chief pushed back against Netanyahu's plan to seize more of Gaza, highlighting internal dissent and increasing political pressure on Netanyahu, which negatively affected market confidence in his staying power.
Netanyahu considers full military takeover of Gaza Strip
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Reports emerged that Netanyahu favored a complete military takeover of Gaza, signaling escalation rather than de-escalation. This hardened stance likely reduced market expectations of his resignation.
Netanyahu orders full Israeli military takeover of Gaza despite IDF opposition
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu directed the Israeli military to fully occupy Gaza, overriding objections from the IDF, signaling a hardline stance amid the conflict. This move increased political tensions but showed Netanyahu's resolve to remain in power, causing market skepticism about his resignation.
Netanyahu Leans Toward Full Occupation of Gaza Strip Despite IDF Objections
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Reports emerged that Netanyahu was heavily favoring a complete military takeover of Gaza, defying military leadership and signaling a prolonged war effort that keeps his coalition intact.
Netanyahu Leans Toward Full Gaza Occupation Amid Tensions with Military Chief
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu pushed for a complete military takeover of Gaza, prompting severe friction with IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and sparking calls from Netanyahu loyalists for Zamir's resignation.
Netanyahu announces plan for full Gaza occupation amid military leadership tensions
December 31 drops to 46%8%
Netanyahu declared a decision for full occupation of Gaza, telling his chief of staff to resign if opposed. This hardline military stance amid internal government tensions signaled political entrenchment, causing market confidence in his resignation by year-end to decline further from 54% to 46%.
Israeli Cabinet Votes to Dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu's cabinet voted unanimously to fire the Attorney General prosecuting him for corruption, sparking a major constitutional standoff before the Supreme Court quickly froze the decision.
Ben-Gvir temporarily resigns from Netanyahu cabinet amid coalition pressure
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Ben-Gvir's resignation weakened Netanyahu's coalition, though he later rejoined when Israel returned to active combat in Gaza.
Netanyahu announces full Gaza occupation plans after military talks
December 31 drops to 53%5%
Netanyahu met with security officials to discuss full occupation of Gaza, reportedly causing tension with his chief of staff over strategic direction.
Israeli court suspends government's move to dismiss attorney general, escalating crisis
December 31 dips to 53%1%
The Israeli cabinet voted to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, a critic of Netanyahu, but the court suspended the move, intensifying the political standoff and undermining Netanyahu's position.
Israel security cabinet approves plan to seize Gaza City, signaling major escalation
December 31 dips to 51%3%
The cabinet's approval of a plan to seize Gaza City, including displacing the population, triggered widespread condemnation and signaled a potential military and political crisis.
Netanyahu asserts full Gaza occupation plan despite military objections
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Netanyahu held talks with security officials about fully occupying Gaza, dismissing military concerns and telling his chief of staff to resign if dissatisfied. This hardened stance amid internal tensions increased political pressure but did not lead to resignation.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint amid rising tensions. This incident highlighted internal political challenges and coalition pressures, likely weakening confidence in his political longevity and contributing to the market price decline.
Israeli Cabinet votes unanimously to fire attorney general amid Netanyahu corruption trial
December 31 drops to 48%5%
The government’s decision to dismiss the attorney general, who was leading Netanyahu's corruption prosecution, escalated tensions between Netanyahu and the judiciary. This move was seen as undermining democratic institutions and increased political uncertainty, negatively affecting confidence in Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu holds talks with Israeli security officials over full Gaza occupation plans
December 31 drops to 45%10%
Netanyahu's firm stance on fully occupying Gaza led to tensions with military officials, including a public challenge to his chief of staff to resign if disagreeing. This internal conflict heightened political uncertainty but did not lead to resignation, with market prices dropping to around 45%.
Netanyahu pushes for full conquest of Gaza amid ceasefire impasse
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Netanyahu advocated for a full military conquest of Gaza, rejecting ceasefire talks and signaling a hardline stance that increased political tensions but did not indicate resignation, contributing to market decline.
Netanyahu meets security officials amid tensions over Gaza occupation plans
December 31 rises to 55%1%
Netanyahu held talks with Israeli security officials about plans to fully occupy Gaza, asserting his authority and threatening resignation of dissenters. This showed his determination to continue his policies despite military reservations, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations around 54-55%.
Netanyahu Clashes With Military Officials Over Full Gaza Occupation Plans
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu met with senior security officials to discuss a full military occupation of Gaza, reportedly telling his chief of staff to resign if he opposed the plan.
Netanyahu to convene security cabinet after cease‑fire talks collapse
December 31 dips to 45%3%
After a failed indirect cease‑fire talks, Netanyahu announced an upcoming security‑cabinet meeting to decide Israel’s next steps in Gaza, hinting at a shift from a truce to a comprehensive deal. The prospect of an intensified military push raised resignation speculation, nudging the market back up to 45% by August 16.
Ultranationalist minister Ben‑Gvir sparks outrage over prayers at holy site
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Itamar Ben‑Gvir’s controversial prayer at the Al‑Aqsa/Temple Mount site drew international condemnation and temporarily strained Netanyahu’s coalition, contributing to the continued decline in confidence reflected by the market.
Netanyahu government votes to dismiss attorney general prosecuting him for corruption
December 31 dips to 53%1%
On August 4, 2025, Netanyahu's government voted unanimously to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, a key critic and prosecutor in Netanyahu's corruption case. This move increased political tensions and uncertainty about Netanyahu's position, contributing to a decline in market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Netanyahu Meets Security Officials Over Gaza Occupation Plans Amid Military Tensions
Netanyahu held high-level talks to discuss plans for a full military occupation of Gaza, warning IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir to resign if he opposed the strategy.
Netanyahu says decision made for full occupation of Gaza
December 31 dips to 51%2%
In a message to Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, Netanyahu announced plans for full Israeli occupation of Gaza, citing a decision that would require Zamir to resign if he disagreed, signaling a major escalation in the Gaza conflict.
Netanyahu urges full conquest of Gaza as ceasefire talks stall
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Netanyahu's firm military stance and call for full conquest of Gaza signaled no intention to step down amid escalating conflict, reducing market expectations of his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu announces decision for full Gaza occupation
December 31 drops to 47%8%
The announcement of plans for full Israeli occupation of Gaza, including statements about resettling the population, sparked widespread condemnation and significantly undermined confidence in Netanyahu's leadership.
Netanyahu announces full Gaza conquest plans, demands chief of staff resignation
December 31 rises to 54%1%
In a direct message to Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, Netanyahu stated 'If this does not suit you, then you should resign,' signaling internal military disagreements over occupation plans and potential coalition instability.
Netanyahu orders full Gaza occupation, tells chief of staff to resign if opposed
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Netanyahu's decision to pursue full military occupation of Gaza and his ultimatum to the chief of staff indicated a hardline approach and internal government tensions, contributing to market doubts about his political stability and potential resignation.
Netanyahu orders full occupation of Gaza despite military dissent
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu announced plans for full occupation of Gaza, telling his chief of staff to resign if he disagreed. This assertive stance amid military tensions increased political risks and uncertainty about his leadership longevity.
Israeli Cabinet Votes to Fire Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu's cabinet voted unanimously to dismiss the Attorney General leading his corruption prosecution, triggering immediate protests and a swift freeze of the decision by the Supreme Court.
Ultranationalist minister Ben‑Gvir resigns then returns amid ceasefire debate
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Media reported that far‑right minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir briefly resigned over a Gaza ceasefire deal, then re‑joined the cabinet. The episode further signalled instability within the coalition and coincided with a modest price dip from 55% to 50% on August 11.
Netanyahu convenes security cabinet to decide next steps after Gaza ceasefire talks collapse
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Following the failure of ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, Netanyahu's government prepared for a possible military escalation in Gaza. This heightened tensions and uncertainty about his leadership, contributing to a further decline in market confidence.
Netanyahu's government votes unanimously to dismiss attorney general prosecuting him for corruption
December 31 dips to 54%2%
On August 4, Netanyahu's far-right government voted to fire Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, who was prosecuting him for corruption. This escalated tensions with the judiciary and was seen as a move to consolidate power, undermining Netanyahu's political standing and increasing uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu Pushes for Full Gaza Occupation Despite IDF Objections and Hostage Risks
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held high-level security meetings to push for a full military takeover of the Gaza Strip, reportedly telling his chief of staff to resign if he opposed the plan.
Netanyahu insists on full Gaza occupation despite military dissent
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu publicly challenged his military chief of staff over Gaza occupation plans, demanding resignation if opposed, highlighting internal government tensions and Netanyahu's firm stance, which likely reduced market expectations of his resignation.
Netanyahu approves plan for full occupation of Gaza City amid coalition tensions
December 31 dips to 53%2%
On August 4, Netanyahu's cabinet approved a plan to take control of Gaza City, escalating the conflict and causing internal coalition strain, especially with far-right ministers threatening to quit if ceasefire deals were made. This heightened political instability contributed to a market price drop to 53%.
Netanyahu Decides on Full Gaza Occupation, Tells IDF Chief to Resign If He Objects
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Reports emerged that Netanyahu decided to fully occupy the Gaza Strip despite strong objections from the military establishment, signaling a major escalation that could prolong the war and his tenure.
Pro-Israel Democrats break with Netanyahu amid Gaza crisis
December 31 dips to 53%2%
US Democratic leaders publicly distanced themselves from Netanyahu due to his Gaza war policies, signaling international political pressure. This external criticism added to doubts about Netanyahu's political future but did not immediately increase resignation odds.
New poll shows 62% of Israelis say Netanyahu's government has lost public confidence
December 31 plunges to 39%16%
A poll revealed significant public disapproval of Netanyahu's leadership, directly impacting the market as confidence in his ability to govern declined.
New poll shows Netanyahu's government losing public confidence
December 31 plunges to 39%16%
A poll indicating 62% of Israelis believe Netanyahu has lost public confidence created a significant negative sentiment toward his leadership, triggering a sharp market decline.
US Democrats publicly break with Netanyahu over Gaza crisis
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Several prominent US Democrats distanced themselves from Netanyahu's policies amid the Gaza conflict, signaling international political pressure and criticism that contributed to market uncertainty about his political future.
US Democrats publicly rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war handling
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Leading US Democrats criticized Netanyahu's strategy in Gaza, signaling international political pressure and potential isolation. This increased uncertainty about his political future but did not immediately affect his position.
New poll shows 62% of Israelis say Netanyahu's government has lost public confidence
A poll indicating significant public disapproval of Netanyahu's leadership contributed to market skepticism about his ability to remain in office.
Netanyahu faces criticism from US Democrats over Gaza war strategy
Senator Patty Murray publicly rebuked Netanyahu's Gaza strategy, adding to international criticism and potentially undermining his political standing.
International criticism mounts as Netanyahu's Gaza policy isolates Israel
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Countries like France and Canada announced diplomatic moves against Israel, reflecting a 'diplomatic tsunami' of international pressure on Netanyahu. This increased doubts about his political stability and potential resignation.
New poll shows Netanyahu's government losing public confidence
A poll revealed 62% of Israelis believe Netanyahu's leadership has lost public confidence, indicating growing political unpopularity and potential for early elections.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 53%6%
A teenage yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox men, intensifying tensions with religious coalition partners and weakening his political base, contributing to the price drop observed on July 26‑28.
US Senate Democrats rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war handling
December 31 drops to 54%5%
A majority of Senate Democrats voted for resolutions blocking arms exports to Israel, criticizing Netanyahu's right-wing policies and handling of the Gaza humanitarian crisis. This political backlash signaled growing international and domestic pressure on Netanyahu, contributing to a decline in market confidence about his staying power.
Democrats rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war strategy
December 31 dips to 54%2%
On July 31, prominent US Democrats publicly criticized Netanyahu's handling of the Gaza war, signaling waning US political support. This external political pressure contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure, with the price declining to 54%.
Democrats publicly rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war handling
December 31 rises to 56%1%
On July 31, prominent US Democrats criticized Netanyahu's strategy in Gaza, signaling eroding international political support. This rebuke contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political stability, reflected in a slight price recovery but overall downward trend.
Democrats in US rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war strategy
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 31, 2025, a majority of Senate Democrats voted for measures criticizing Netanyahu's handling of the Gaza conflict, signaling growing international political pressure and dissatisfaction with his leadership. This contributed to initial market uncertainty about his political future.
Democrats Rebuke Netanyahu and Israel's Handling of Gaza War
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Prominent U.S. Democrats ramped up their criticism of Netanyahu's military strategy, highlighting a growing partisan divide and international pressure on his administration.
Democrats rebuke Netanyahu’s Gaza strategy
December 31 drops to 54%5%
A wave of statements from senior US Democrats, including Senator Patty Murray, condemned Netanyahu’s war strategy and called for new US policy. The criticism heightened expectations of political pressure on Netanyahu, aligning with the market’s early decline from 59 % to 54 % between Jul 25 and Jul 26.
US Democrats publicly rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war handling
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Leading US Democrats criticized Netanyahu's strategy in Gaza, signaling international political pressure and potential diplomatic isolation. This external pressure contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future but did not indicate an immediate resignation.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Amid reports of settlers attacking Palestinian vehicles and setting fires, Netanyahu met security officials, signaling potential policy shifts and increasing political pressure from coalition partners, which further lowered market confidence.
Netanyahu assumes duties of resigned ministers amid coalition crisis
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Following resignations from ultra-Orthodox parties, Netanyahu took over their ministerial posts despite legal concerns, demonstrating his consolidation of power and lowering the likelihood of his stepping down soon.
US Democrats rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war handling
December 31 dips to 54%2%
On July 31, prominent US Democrats publicly criticized Netanyahu's strategy in Gaza, marking a significant political rebuke and signaling waning support from a key ally. This political pressure contributed to a further decline in market confidence in Netanyahu's tenure, with prices falling to 54%.
Haredi parties withdraw from Netanyahu government amid conscription crisis
United Torah Judaism and Noam withdrew from the government and coalition, while Shas withdrew from government but remained in coalition, creating significant political instability.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Revealed digitally altered images of Netanyahu’s wife in official releases sparked a public ethics debate, casting doubt on the administration’s transparency and further damaging Netanyahu’s standing, which coincided with the market’s slide toward mid‑July.
US senators urge Netanyahu to change course in Gaza war amid starvation fears
December 31 dips to 51%2%
Over 100 NGOs warned of mass starvation in Gaza due to Netanyahu's blockade, adding pressure on the US to push for a ceasefire and highlighting humanitarian concerns undermining Netanyahu's legitimacy.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu announced his acceptance to join the U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, a body intended to oversee the Gaza ceasefire and broader peace efforts. This move signaled his commitment to ongoing political leadership and regional stability, reducing market expectations of his stepping down by year-end 2026.
Netanyahu Accuses UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Rewarding Hamas
December 31 rises to 56%2%
Netanyahu strongly criticized the UK government's conditional plans to recognize a Palestinian state, reinforcing his defiant stance against international pressure and solidifying his domestic political position.
Netanyahu condemns European recognition of Palestinian state, escalating tensions
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Netanyahu publicly criticized European leaders for recognizing a Palestinian state, framing it as rewarding terrorism. This hardened his stance and reduced likelihood of resignation, contributing to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu holds high-level meetings amid growing domestic and international pressure
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu convened top advisers to discuss hostages and Gaza ceasefire talks amid increasing criticism and public opposition, reflecting political strain. This contributed to market uncertainty and a price decline to 54%.
Democrats rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war handling
December 31 dips to 55%1%
On July 29-31, prominent US Democrats publicly criticized Netanyahu's Gaza war strategy, signaling eroding international support and increasing political isolation. This rebuke contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu accuses Europeans of rewarding Hamas with Palestinian state recognition
Netanyahu delivered a pre-recorded message criticizing European recognition of Palestinian statehood, escalating diplomatic tensions and adding to his political isolation.
Netanyahu blasts UK over conditional Palestinian state recognition
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Netanyahu criticized British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for conditional plans to recognize a Palestinian state, accusing the UK of rewarding Hamas and undermining Israel's position.
Netanyahu accuses European leaders of rewarding Hamas by recognizing Palestinian state
December 31 dips to 56%2%
Netanyahu criticized British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's conditional recognition of Palestinian state, which intensified diplomatic tensions and political isolation.
Haredi parties withdraw from Netanyahu's government amid conscription crisis
December 31 drops to 54%5%
United Torah Judaism and Noam parties left both government and coalition, while Shas withdrew from government but stayed in coalition, signaling a major political crisis over military conscription exemptions. This raised doubts about Netanyahu's government's stability, impacting the market's outlook on his tenure.
Netanyahu criticizes European recognition of Palestinian state as rewarding Hamas
Netanyahu publicly condemned European countries recognizing a Palestinian state, framing it as rewarding terrorism, which reinforced his hardline image and decreased market optimism about his resignation.
Netanyahu condemns UK plans to recognize Palestinian state, escalating tensions
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu publicly criticized British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's announcement to recognize a Palestinian state, framing it as rewarding terrorism, which reinforced his hardline image and likely decreased market optimism about his resignation.
Netanyahu faces criticism amid Gaza conflict and coalition tensions
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Netanyahu accused Europeans of 'rewarding Hamas' and held consultations on Gaza, while his coalition remained unstable with ministers not reinstated. This ongoing political and military pressure contributed to market doubts about his remaining in office through 2026.
Cabinet Holds Vote to Replace Resigned Shas Ministers Amid Conscription Crisis
December 31 dips to 55%1%
The Israeli cabinet held a vote to replace ministers from the ultra-Orthodox Shas party who resigned over the military conscription dispute, highlighting severe internal coalition friction.
Netanyahu Blasts UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer Over Palestinian Statehood Plans
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strongly criticized UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for announcing conditional plans to recognize a Palestinian state, arguing that it rewards terrorism.
Netanyahu accuses Europeans of rewarding Hamas with Palestinian state recognition
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Netanyahu delivered a pre-recorded message criticizing European recognition of Palestinian statehood, escalating diplomatic tensions and potentially undermining his international standing.
Netanyahu holds consultations on Gaza amid coalition instability
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Netanyahu's decision not to hand ministerial portfolios to resigned ministers suggested hope for Shas party's return, indicating political maneuvering to stabilize his government. This maintained some market optimism but also highlighted ongoing coalition fragility.
Netanyahu condemns UK recognition of Palestinian state, blaming it for terrorism
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 29, Netanyahu criticized the British government for recognizing Palestine, accusing it of rewarding Hamas and encouraging terrorism. This hardened stance likely reinforced perceptions of Netanyahu's determination to maintain his position, contributing to a slight market decline in resignation probability.
Ultra-Orthodox Shas Party Quits Government Over Military Service Dispute
December 31 dips to 55%1%
The ultra-Orthodox Shas party withdrew from the government after the coalition failed to codify Haredi military service exemptions, forcing a cabinet vote to replace the resigned ministers.
Netanyahu faces growing international and domestic criticism amid Gaza conflict
December 31 rises to 55%1%
Netanyahu accused Europeans of 'rewarding Hamas' and faced protests and political pressure. The US and other allies showed signs of frustration with stalled ceasefire talks. This environment increased uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future, contributing to market volatility around this date.
Netanyahu assumes ministerial roles vacated by resigning ultra-Orthodox ministers
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Following the resignation of Shas and UTJ ministers, Netanyahu took over their ministerial duties despite legal prohibitions, demonstrating his intent to maintain control and government functionality. This move was controversial but showed his resilience, slightly stabilizing market expectations.
Leading Israeli Human Rights Groups Accuse Israel of Genocide in Gaza
December 31 rises to 56%2%
B'Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights-Israel released landmark reports accusing the Israeli government of committing genocide in Gaza, intensifying international and domestic pressure on Netanyahu's administration.
Netanyahu violates Israeli law by assuming ministerial duties
December 31 plunges to 38%36%
Netanyahu assumed responsibilities of resigned Shas and UTJ ministers, violating Israeli law that prohibits a prime minister from holding ministerial posts. This illegal action caused a sharp market decline to 38% on August 11.
Former PM Naftali Bennett calls for Netanyahu government replacement amid collapse fears
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Naftali Bennett publicly declared Israel was 'collapsing' and urged swift replacement of Netanyahu's government, signaling deep political crisis and eroding market confidence in Netanyahu's continuation as PM.
Netanyahu assumes duties of resigned ministers, violating Israeli law
December 31 drops to 53%6%
Following the resignation of ministers from the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party and United Torah Judaism bloc over failed legislation on military exemptions, Netanyahu took over their ministerial duties, contravening Israeli law that prohibits a criminal defendant from holding ministerial posts. This move highlighted government instability and legal challenges facing Netanyahu, impacting market confidence in his tenure.
Israeli Cabinet votes to fire attorney general, escalating Netanyahu-judiciary standoff
The cabinet voted unanimously to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, intensifying the long-standing conflict between Netanyahu and the judiciary over judicial independence and power concentration.
Iranian president declares full‑scale war with the West
December 31 drops to 38%7%
Iran’s president announced a full‑scale war with the U.S., Israel and Europe, heightening regional security concerns and putting pressure on Netanyahu’s government, further dragging the price down to 38% by August 11.
Teen killed in bus crash during ultra‑Orthodox draft protest
December 31 rises to 57%3%
A 14‑year‑old yeshiva student was run over by a bus amid protests against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, prompting Netanyahu to call for calm; the incident highlighted internal dissent and temporarily lifted market optimism.
Israeli Cabinet votes to dismiss attorney general, escalating standoff with judiciary
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Netanyahu's government voted unanimously to fire Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, escalating a long-standing standoff over judicial independence and Netanyahu's conflict of interest during his corruption trial.
Israeli bus runs over and kills ultra-Orthodox teen during protest
December 31 drops to 50%9%
A bus driver killed a 14-year-old yeshiva student during a violent protest against military draft plans, inflaming tensions between Netanyahu's government and the ultra-Orthodox community he relies on politically.
Israeli cabinet votes to fire attorney general
December 31 drops to 53%6%
The Israeli cabinet voted unanimously to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav‑Miara, intensifying Netanyahu’s clash with the judiciary and suggesting a move toward authoritarian rule. Investors saw this as a step toward potential removal of Netanyahu, causing the market to tumble to 53% on July 27.
Retouched images of Netanyahu's wife ignite ethics debate
Government-distributed photos of Netanyahu's wife were found to be heavily retouched, sparking a significant ethics controversy. This negative personal conduct issue likely contributed to the market's subsequent decline to 50% on July 27.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 dips to 54%1%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over him during a massive protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted tensions with religious parties that underpin his coalition, raising doubts about his ability to govern through December.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 45%8%
The fatal bus incident intensified protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox men, straining his coalition and prompting calls for his resignation, which coincided with the market’s slide to 45% on July 26.
Netanyahu and US recall negotiators, consider alternative options in Gaza talks
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 25, Netanyahu announced Israel and the US were considering alternative options after recalling negotiators from ceasefire talks with Hamas, signaling a hardening stance and reducing chances of a quick political resolution. This contributed to a market drop from 59% to 54% on July 26 for Netanyahu stepping down by December 31.
Netanyahu signals end to Gaza ceasefire talks, seeks alternative war goals
December 31 drops to 53%6%
On July 25, Netanyahu announced Israel would seek alternative means to achieve its goals in Gaza after ceasefire talks stalled, signaling a hardening stance that reduced expectations of his resignation by December 31.
Netanyahu meets with US President Trump to discuss Iran and regional security
On July 25, Netanyahu held a private meeting with US President Trump focusing on Iran and regional security issues. This meeting reinforced Netanyahu's active role in international diplomacy, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026, as he appeared politically engaged and influential.
Haredi parties withdraw from Netanyahu's government amid conscription crisis
December 31 drops to 54%5%
United Torah Judaism and Noam withdrew from both government and coalition, while Shas left the government but stayed in coalition, creating a political crisis. This instability raised doubts about Netanyahu's hold on power but did not signal imminent resignation, impacting the market's outlook for his departure by December 31.
Netanyahu temporarily assumes ministerial roles vacated by Haredim
December 31 dips to 56%2%
Netanyahu took over the duties of ministers who resigned from the Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, violating Israeli law and highlighting the government's fragility, which affected market confidence in his staying power.
U.S. and Israel Pull Out of Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations in Qatar
December 31 drops to 54%5%
The United States and Israel abruptly withdrew their negotiating teams from Qatar, accusing Hamas of acting in bad faith. This collapse hardened Netanyahu's political position and reduced immediate pressure on his government.
Netanyahu announces Israel will seek alternative means to achieve goals in Gaza war
December 31 drops to 54%5%
Netanyahu abandoned ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, signaling a hardline approach that drew international criticism and increased domestic opposition.
Netanyahu and Trump abandon Gaza ceasefire negotiations with Hamas
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 25, Netanyahu and Trump appeared to abandon ceasefire talks with Hamas, signaling a hardening Israeli position in the Gaza conflict. This diminished hopes for a quick resolution and increased political pressure on Netanyahu, contributing to a market price drop from 59% to 54%.
Netanyahu's wife's retouched photos spark ethics debate
December 31 plunges to 59%15%
Official government distribution of heavily retouched images of Netanyahu's wife ignited a firestorm over ethical standards in state communications and record-keeping, damaging Netanyahu's personal credibility and potentially affecting public trust in his leadership.
Israel cabinet votes to dismiss attorney general, escalating judicial standoff
December 31 drops to 53%6%
The cabinet's unanimous vote to fire the attorney general intensified the long-standing conflict between Netanyahu and the judiciary, undermining his government's legitimacy.
Netanyahu signs $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas contract with Egypt, highlighting Israel’s emerging energy role and bolstering his political standing, which helped push the market to its early‑window high.
Netanyahu and Trump Appear to Abandon Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations
December 31 drops to 54%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. allies signaled a shift away from ceasefire talks with Hamas, choosing to pursue alternative military means. This move pleased far-right coalition partners, stabilizing his immediate grip on power.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, which could help repair strained relations. This positive diplomatic move may have initially boosted market sentiment, contributing to the peak price of 74% on the same day.
Netanyahu faces mounting political challenges as Haredi parties withdraw from government
In mid-July 2025, key ultra-Orthodox parties left Netanyahu's coalition, weakening his government and raising speculation about his political future. This political instability initially increased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
December 31 dips to 55%4%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he would sit on President Donald Trump’s newly‑formed Board of Peace, reversing earlier criticism and signaling closer US‑Israel alignment, which raised doubts about his political stability and pushed the market down.
Netanyahu signals hardening stance on Gaza war, abandoning ceasefire talks
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 25, Netanyahu announced Israel would seek alternative options in the Gaza conflict after ceasefire talks faltered, signaling a tougher military approach. This hardened stance increased political pressure and uncertainty about his leadership, contributing to a market price drop from 59% to 54% for his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt reinforced his role as a key regional leader and economic policymaker, signaling political stability and reducing market expectations of his imminent resignation.
Netanyahu announces Israel intends to control all of Gaza amid ceasefire collapse
December 31 drops to 53%6%
After indirect ceasefire talks collapsed, Netanyahu signaled a hardline approach to Gaza, which increased political pressure and raised concerns about his government's stability.
Rep. Ralph Norman announces run for South Carolina governor
On July 25, 2025, Rep. Ralph Norman announced his candidacy for governor, signaling political shifts in the U.S. but with no direct impact on Netanyahu's position. This event coincides with the market's initial high probability for Netanyahu's resignation, but it did not cause a significant price change.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 dips to 55%4%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a $35 billion natural‑gas export agreement with Egypt, a move seen as an attempt to bolster his regional standing but also sparked criticism from coalition partners who fear economic concessions could weaken his political base, lowering confidence in his year‑end tenure.
Netanyahu and US abandon Gaza ceasefire talks, consider alternative options
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 25, Netanyahu confirmed the US pullback from ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, calling it an "earthquake" and signaling a hardening stance. This increased uncertainty about a peaceful resolution and Netanyahu's political future, causing a market drop from 59% to 54% on July 26.
Ultra-Orthodox parties withdraw from Netanyahu's government over conscription crisis
December 31 drops to 53%6%
United Torah Judaism and Noam parties left the government citing opposition to military conscription laws, while Shas withdrew from the government but stayed in the coalition. This political fracture raised doubts about the government's stability and Netanyahu's hold on power, causing a market price drop for his remaining in office by December 31.
U.S. Senate leaders call on Trump to pressure Netanyahu over Gaza war
December 31 drops to 53%6%
A joint statement from senior U.S. Senate leaders urged the Trump administration to press Netanyahu to change his Gaza policy. The explicit foreign‑policy pressure reinforced concerns about Netanyahu’s political standing and helped drive the market down toward the low‑40 % range.
Netanyahu seeks to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox boy killed by bus
December 31 drops to 53%6%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu urged calm to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal political tensions but did not signal any resignation, contributing to a slight market price drop from 59% to 53%.
Netanyahu publicly commits to full military control of Gaza Strip
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 25, 2025, Netanyahu announced plans for Israel to take full control of Gaza, aiming to remove Hamas and transfer governance to friendly Arab forces. This assertive stance increased doubts about his stepping down, causing a market drop from 59% to 54% Yes.
Netanyahu abandons Gaza ceasefire talks, signals alternative war strategies
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 25, Netanyahu announced abandoning ceasefire negotiations with Hamas and pursuing alternative military options in Gaza, signaling a hardline approach that reduced market expectations of his resignation. This move intensified the conflict and political tensions without indicating imminent stepping down.
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