Ongoing bilateral negotiations centered on reciprocal tariff reductions for roughly $30 billion in goods each side, conducted through the U.S.-China Board of Trade established in May 2026, have advanced prospects for a formal agreement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the Trump-Xi summit set for September 24 in Washington, where further cuts on energy, agricultural, and manufacturing inputs are under discussion. These talks build on the one-year trade truce extending suspensions until November 2026 and prior commitments capping cumulative rates. The September 2026 diplomatic momentum and scheduled leader-level engagement underpin the 88% implied probability reflected in trader consensus, with resolution hinging on a publicly announced mutual pact by December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato88% probabilità
$251,834 Vol.
$251,834 Vol.
31 dic 2026
88% probabilità
$251,834 Vol.
$251,834 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral negotiations centered on reciprocal tariff reductions for roughly $30 billion in goods each side, conducted through the U.S.-China Board of Trade established in May 2026, have advanced prospects for a formal agreement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the Trump-Xi summit set for September 24 in Washington, where further cuts on energy, agricultural, and manufacturing inputs are under discussion. These talks build on the one-year trade truce extending suspensions until November 2026 and prior commitments capping cumulative rates. The September 2026 diplomatic momentum and scheduled leader-level engagement underpin the 88% implied probability reflected in trader consensus, with resolution hinging on a publicly announced mutual pact by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$251,834Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral negotiations centered on reciprocal tariff reductions for roughly $30 billion in goods each side, conducted through the U.S.-China Board of Trade established in May 2026, have advanced prospects for a formal agreement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the Trump-Xi summit set for September 24 in Washington, where further cuts on energy, agricultural, and manufacturing inputs are under discussion. These talks build on the one-year trade truce extending suspensions until November 2026 and prior commitments capping cumulative rates. The September 2026 diplomatic momentum and scheduled leader-level engagement underpin the 88% implied probability reflected in trader consensus, with resolution hinging on a publicly announced mutual pact by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$251,834Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Ongoing bilateral negotiations centered on reciprocal tariff reductions for roughly $30 billion in goods each side, conducted through the U.S.-China Board of Trade established in May 2026, have advanced prospects for a formal agreement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the Trump-Xi summit set for September 24 in Washington, where further cuts on energy, agricultural, and manufacturing inputs are under discussion. These talks build on the one-year trade truce extending suspensions until November 2026 and prior commitments capping cumulative rates. The September 2026 diplomatic momentum and scheduled leader-level engagement underpin the 88% implied probability reflected in trader consensus, with resolution hinging on a publicly announced mutual pact by December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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