**US and Iran reached a 14-point memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 to end more than 100 days of conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, lift the US naval blockade, and begin a 60-day negotiation window on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and related issues.** The MOU was virtually signed by President Trump and Iranian officials, with a formal signing ceremony planned for June 19 in Geneva. While this marks the first major diplomatic breakthrough in the 2025–2026 negotiations—mediated by Qatar, Pakistan, and others—US and Iranian interpretations diverge on implementation details such as asset releases and long-term Hormuz management. Trader sentiment reflects progress toward de-escalation but accounts for remaining uncertainty over whether the interim ceasefire evolves into a permanent, verifiable agreement within any specific timeframe.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPresident Trump announces end of US naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz
June 15 jumps to 97%13%
Following the peace deal announcement, President Trump declared the end of the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing the permanent peace agreement and further boosting market confidence.
Trump declares US‑Iran peace deal complete, war permanently ended
June 15 surges to 98%88%
Following the June‑14 announcement, the US President declared the deal “completed” and confirmed an immediate, permanent termination of the war. The confirmation lifted the final few points, bringing the June‑15 outcome to 98 %.
Preliminary peace deal framework announced by US and Iran
June 30 surges to 97%22%
On June 15, 2026, US and Iranian officials announced a preliminary agreement on a framework aimed at extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and ending hostilities in Lebanon. The deal is an initial framework, not a final peace agreement, but boosted market confidence significantly.
Pakistan’s PM says US‑Iran peace deal will be signed in Geneva
October 31 surges to 99%21%
Pakistan’s prime minister announced on X that the US and Iran had reached a peace deal to be signed in Geneva on June 19. The statement reinforced market confidence and solidified the 99 % odds for the October‑31 and August‑31 dates.
Trump says US‑Iran peace deal is now complete
On the day the market peaked, Trump reiterated that the agreement was “complete” and that the Strait of Hormuz would be permanently open. This final affirmation locked in the near‑certain market view that a permanent peace deal would be in place by the end of the year.
Trump declares Hormuz toll‑free and US blockade lifted
Trump posted that the deal would make the Strait of Hormuz “toll‑free” and that the U.S. naval blockade would be lifted. The clear declaration of a permanent cessation of hostilities caused the market to peak at 97 % for the October‑31 and December‑31 outcomes on June 15.
US and Iranian officials confirm peace framework deal to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz
December 31 jumps to 95%5%
US and Iranian officials confirmed they agreed on a peace framework to end the war, halt military operations including in Lebanon, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This confirmation solidified market confidence in a permanent peace deal by all resolution dates.
Pakistan Prime Minister announces US-Iran permanent peace deal reached
December 31 jumps to 95%7%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran had been reached following intensive talks. This official announcement, confirmed by both sides, led to the highest market confidence levels for all outcomes.
US and Iran announce agreement to reopen Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities
December 31 surges to 99%27%
Both sides announced a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and permanently end hostilities. The live‑update broadcast triggered the biggest single‑day swing (+27 points) and moved all remaining outcomes to 97‑99 % “Yes”.
UK prime minister hails US‑Iran agreement as important step
December 31 surges to 99%15%
The UK prime minister welcomed the agreement, calling it an “important step.” The endorsement from a major Western ally reinforced confidence, contributing to the final rally to 99 % for the December‑31 outcome.
US and Iran agree on permanent peace deal; signing ceremony set for June 19
June 15 surges to 84%15%
On June 14, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the US and Iran had agreed on a permanent peace deal including immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts. The signing ceremony was scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland, causing a sharp market surge.
US and Iran reach agreement to extend ceasefire and reopen Strait of Hormuz
June 30 surges to 98%23%
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran agreed on a framework extending their ceasefire for 60 days, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing ceremony expected on June 19. This marked the biggest diplomatic breakthrough and caused a sharp market rally.
Pakistan PM confirms June 19 signing ceremony for US‑Iran peace deal
Sharif confirmed that the agreement would be formally signed in Switzerland on June 19, reinforcing market belief that a permanent settlement was imminent, and cementing the high odds for all later dates.
President Trump announces imminent signing of US-Iran peace deal and Strait of Hormuz reopening
December 31 jumps to 83%8%
On June 13, 2026, President Trump stated that the US-Iran peace deal would be signed imminently, with the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, further increasing market confidence in a permanent peace deal by the end of the year.
US and Iran signal peace deal near; Pakistani PM announces final text agreed
June 15 surges to 69%54%
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the US and Iran had reached a final, agreed-upon text of the peace deal, with peace closer than ever, boosting market optimism significantly.
Iran publishes 14-point draft memorandum of understanding with US
December 31 jumps to 83%7%
Iran publicly released the contents of a 14-point draft memorandum of understanding being negotiated with the US, outlining ceasefire extension, sanctions relief, and regional security measures, signaling growing momentum toward a potential agreement.
US and Iran reach final agreed text of peace deal, Pakistan announces progress
December 31 surges to 83%15%
On June 12, 2026, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the US and Iran had reached a final agreed text of a peace deal, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough and significantly boosting market optimism for a permanent peace deal by June 30 and beyond.
Pakistan announces US and Iran have agreed on final text of peace deal
December 31 jumps to 80%11%
On June 12, 2026, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the US and Iran had agreed on the final text of a peace deal, signaling significant diplomatic progress and boosting market optimism for a permanent peace deal by June 30.
Pakistan's Prime Minister announces final agreed text of US-Iran peace deal
December 31 rises to 83%3%
On June 12, 2026, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the US and Iran had reached a final agreed text of a peace deal, marking a major diplomatic breakthrough and significantly boosting market optimism for a permanent peace deal by year-end.
White House reiterates Iran war terminated on June 12
December 31 jumps to 77%9%
The White House reiterated that hostilities had terminated, reaffirming the earlier claim and stabilising market prices after a volatile week.
Pakistan PM and Trump announce final US‑Iran peace‑deal text
June 15 surges to 86%73%
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the U.S. and Iran had agreed on the final text of a peace deal. Trump echoed the news, saying hostilities had ended. The joint announcement pushed the June‑15 price up dramatically (+73 points) to 86 % and lifted all later outcomes near the 95‑+% range.
Trump claims US and Iran have made a great settlement, cancels planned strikes
December 31 jumps to 79%12%
President Trump announced that the US had made a significant settlement with Iran, pending final document finalization, and canceled planned strikes. This announcement boosted market optimism for a permanent peace deal despite ongoing military tensions.
US President Trump announces ceasefire deal with Iran including reopening Strait of Hormuz
December 31 surges to 95%18%
President Trump announced that a ceasefire deal with Iran had been agreed upon, including lifting the US naval blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement caused a sharp surge in market prices across all resolution dates, reflecting high confidence in a permanent peace deal.
President Trump cancels planned strikes, citing Iranian approval of deal points
December 31 rises to 83%4%
President Trump canceled planned airstrikes against Iran, citing high-level Iranian approval of final deal points and broad regional backing, signaling diplomatic momentum and raising market optimism for a peace deal.
UN chief praises US‑Iran peace deal as permanent cease‑fire
June 30 surges to 99%57%
UN Secretary‑General António Guterres publicly congratulated the United States and Iran on reaching a “peace deal,” adding legitimacy to the agreement and nudging the market slightly higher for the June‑30 outcome.
US launches strikes across southern Iran amid fragile ceasefire
On June 11, 2026, the US launched strikes across southern Iran, representing the most serious breakdown of the ceasefire to date. Despite this, US officials claimed the ceasefire remained in place and negotiations continued, maintaining cautious market optimism.
President Trump cancels strikes and announces peace deal imminent
December 31 jumps to 78%8%
On June 11, 2026, President Trump canceled scheduled strikes against Iran and stated that a peace deal would be announced soon, signaling significant progress in negotiations and boosting market confidence in a near-term agreement.
U.S. Treasury adds sanctions on Iran’s military oil‑sales arm
June 30 drops to 18%8%
The U.S. Treasury imposed fresh sanctions on Iran's military oil‑sales arm shortly after the June‑1 suspension, reinforcing market pessimism and pushing the June‑30 price down to 18 % and the June‑15 price to 9 %.
IRGC closes Strait of Hormuz, fires on ships amid U.S. blockade
June 15 drops to 7%13%
The IRGC closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on passing ships, heightening the risk of renewed conflict. The incident knocked the June‑15 outcome down to 7 % and pushed the June‑30 price lower after a brief rally.
Diplomats scramble to formalize framework to end hostilities in Iran Nuclear Talks
By early June 2026, diplomats intensified efforts to formalize a framework addressing uranium enrichment, sanctions, and regional security, maintaining some optimism for a permanent peace deal despite ongoing military tensions.
Iran Nuclear Talks reach critical junction amid ongoing hostilities
December 31 dips to 71%2%
By early June, Iran Nuclear Talks reached a critical point with diplomats trying to formalize a framework to end hostilities, but ongoing military incidents and disputes over uranium enrichment continued, maintaining market uncertainty about a permanent peace deal.
Iranian supreme leader warns US military bases are no longer safe
On June 2, 2026, Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that US military bases in the Middle East were no longer safe, signaling a hardening stance amid ongoing negotiations and military tensions, which dampened market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Trump expresses frustration over stalled talks and shutdown of further negotiations by Iran
June 30 drops to 26%11%
On June 1, 2026, President Trump expressed frustration over the shutdown of further talks by Iran due to planned Israeli attacks on Beirut, calling the negotiation process boring, which dampened market optimism for a near-term peace deal.
Trump calls US-Iran negotiation process 'very boring' as talks stall
June 7 drops to 7%5%
President Trump expressed frustration over the shutdown of further talks by Iran due to planned Israeli attacks on Beirut, dampening near-term peace deal expectations.
Iran suspends nuclear talks indefinitely after Israeli attacks on Beirut
June 15 drops to 6%13%
Following Israeli attacks on Beirut, Iran suspended nuclear talks indefinitely, causing a sharp decline in market optimism for a near-term permanent peace deal.
Iran suspends negotiations with U.S. over Israeli attacks in Lebanon
June 7 plunges to 0%21%
Iranian state media reported that Iran suspended talks in response to Israeli actions in Lebanon. The suspension coincided with the market price for the June‑7 outcome hitting zero and the June‑30 odds falling to the low‑20 % range.
US Vice President and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad without agreement
June 30 dips to 66%4%
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, signaling diplomatic efforts to end hostilities. The talks ended without agreement, causing market uncertainty and a drop in near-term peace deal probabilities.
Reports of US-Iran peace deal draft circulated among allies including Israel
December 31 rises to 82%1%
President Trump circulated a draft peace agreement with Iran among allies including Israel to prevent ceasefire breaches and support a potential deal, reinforcing market optimism for a permanent peace deal by year-end.
Trump signals imminent decision on Iran peace deal amid mixed messages
December 31 drops to 71%10%
On May 29, 2026, President Trump indicated he was close to approving a peace deal with major Iranian concessions but expressed caution, causing market fluctuations. Iranian officials denied some reported terms, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about final agreement details.
Trump signals nearing approval of Iran peace deal with major concessions
June 30 drops to 13%13%
President Trump indicated he was close to approving a peace deal with Iran involving major concessions, but expressed caution, leading to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Trump delays final decision on Iran peace deal amid unresolved issues
June 7 plunges to 4%17%
Despite progress, President Trump delayed final approval of the Iran peace deal in late May, citing unresolved points such as Iran's nuclear program and sanctions. This uncertainty caused market prices for near-term resolution dates to decline sharply.
U.S. and Iran reach tentative 60‑day cease‑fire extension MOU
July 31 surges to 70%17%
US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary 60‑day cease‑fire extension MOU pending Trump’s approval. The announcement caused a further +17‑point jump (May 24 → May 25) and pushed the market close to 99 % for the July‑31 and August‑31 outcomes.
US and Iran reach tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal
June 7 drops to 19%12%
Negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, but the requirement for Trump's final approval introduced near-term uncertainty.
US and Iran reach tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump's approval
October 31 surges to 66%16%
Negotiators from the US and Iran reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, but the deal required President Trump's final approval. This development caused a significant market rally reflecting increased chances of a permanent peace deal.
US and Iran reach preliminary 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump's approval
June 30 plunges to 26%16%
On May 28, US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin nuclear negotiations, but final approval from President Trump was still pending, causing market fluctuations.
Treasury chief warns Oman of sanctions if it imposes Hormuz tolls
August 31 jumps to 53%12%
Bessent warned Oman against levying tolls on Hormuz traffic, signalling that the U.S. was still pressing for a permanent settlement, which helped temporarily lift the “August 31” odds to 53 %.
MOU text not finalised; agreement still pending Trump approval
July 31 drops to 32%13%
A Reuters report noted that the 60‑day MOU text had not yet been finalised, keeping uncertainty high and contributing to the gradual decline of the July‑31 and June‑15 odds throughout May.
President Trump circulates draft Iran peace agreement among allies including Israel
December 31 rises to 82%2%
President Trump shared a draft peace agreement with allies including Israel to prevent ceasefire breaches and support a potential deal, signaling progress in negotiations and boosting market confidence.
US and Iranian negotiators reach preliminary 60-day ceasefire MOU awaiting final approval
June 30 drops to 62%5%
On May 28, 2026, US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start nuclear negotiations, but the deal awaited President Trump's final approval, causing market fluctuations.
US and Iran reach tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump's approval
June 15 surges to 50%30%
US and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, pending President Trump's final approval. This development maintained cautious market optimism but uncertainty remained.
MOU pending Trump’s final approval
June 15 drops to 14%6%
Reports that the MOU awaited Trump’s final approval introduced uncertainty, contributing to a dip in the June‑15 odds.
US and Iranian negotiators reach tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump's approval
October 31 surges to 66%16%
On May 28, 2026, US and Iranian negotiators reportedly reached a tentative memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin nuclear negotiations, but final approval by President Trump and Iran was still pending, causing market fluctuations.
US and Iran reach deal pending Trump's final approval
December 31 rises to 80%2%
Reports on May 28 indicated that the US and Iran had reached a peace deal subject to final approval by President Trump, reflecting significant diplomatic progress and impacting market prices positively for longer-term outcomes.
US and Iranian negotiators reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire
December 31 dips to 79%4%
On May 28, 2026, US and Iranian negotiators reportedly reached a tentative MOU to extend the ceasefire and start nuclear talks, but final approval from President Trump was still pending, causing some market uncertainty.
US and Iran reach 60-day memorandum of understanding pending Trump's approval
June 30 jumps to 81%14%
US and Iranian negotiators reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, pending final approval by President Trump, signaling progress toward a permanent peace deal.
Pakistan PM says US‑Iran negotiators reached tentative 60‑day cease‑fire MOU
June 30 surges to 75%31%
Pakistan’s prime minister announced that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had reached a tentative 60‑day MOU extending the cease‑fire and launching nuclear‑talks. The news revived market confidence, lifting the June‑30 price sharply toward 75 %.
US and Iran reach tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump's approval
December 31 jumps to 82%13%
On May 28, US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start nuclear negotiations, but the deal awaited President Trump's final approval, causing market fluctuations.
US and Iran reach preliminary 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump's approval
On May 28, 2026, US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start nuclear negotiations, but the deal awaited President Trump's final approval, causing market fluctuations.
Trump shares draft Iran peace agreement with allies including Israel
On May 28, 2026, President Trump circulated a draft peace agreement with allies including Israel to prevent ceasefire breaches and support a potential deal, signaling progress in negotiations and boosting market confidence.
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
June 30 surges to 75%25%
US and Iranian negotiators reportedly reached a tentative memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, pending President Trump's final approval. This development increased market confidence in a near-term ceasefire extension.
U.S. conducts strikes on Iranian missile launch sites
October 31 drops to 65%6%
U.S. strikes on Iranian missile sites and boats were reported, undermining optimism from the previous day and causing a modest pull‑back in market odds for all dates.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile sites in Hormuz
June 30 plunges to 28%33%
U.S. forces carried out strikes on Iranian missile sites in the Strait of Hormuz, undermining confidence that the cease‑fire would hold and pulling the “June 30” odds down to 28 % by early June.
Oil prices fall on hopes for US-Iran peace deal amid ongoing disputes
On May 25, 2026, oil prices fell on optimism about a US-Iran peace deal, despite remaining disputes over key issues including the Strait of Hormuz blockade. This reflected market anticipation of a deal but also uncertainty about final terms.
US military strikes Iranian missile sites amid ongoing peace talks
On May 25, 2026, US forces conducted strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats, described as defensive, amid ongoing peace negotiations. This military action introduced uncertainty and tempered market optimism for a near-term peace deal.
US suspends ‘Project Freedom’ to facilitate Israel-Iran peace talks
June 30 jumps to 56%12%
The US President announced the suspension of ‘Project Freedom’, a military operation designed to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as part of efforts to negotiate an agreement with Iran. This move was seen as a gesture to facilitate diplomatic negotiations aimed at reaching a final agreement with Iran, moderately boosting market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
US military strikes Iran amid ongoing peace deal negotiations
June 30 drops to 59%10%
On May 25, 2026, the US military announced strikes against Iranian missile launch sites and boats, tempering expectations of peace despite ongoing negotiations. This military action introduced uncertainty and volatility in the market for near-term peace deals.
Trump ties any Iran peace deal to Abraham Accords
June 15 plunges to 16%56%
Trump publicly linked any permanent peace deal to the Abraham Accords, adding new conditionality that reduced market optimism for the “June 15” outcome (price fell from 72 % to 16 %).
US and Iran reach deal in principle to reopen Strait of Hormuz
December 31 surges to 81%27%
On May 24, 2026, a US official stated that the US and Iran had reached a deal in principle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key strategic point. This development was seen as a significant step toward peace, boosting market confidence in a permanent deal possibility, especially for the December 31 outcome.
Trump announces US-Iran peace deal memorandum largely negotiated
December 31 surges to 72%18%
On May 24, 2026, President Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding pertaining to peace with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of 2026.
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement with MOU close to finalization
December 31 surges to 83%29%
On May 24, 2026, reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to extend the ceasefire and begin nuclear negotiations, boosting market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of 2026.
Secretary of State Rubio signals possible peace deal announcement soon
July 31 surges to 53%20%
On May 24, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that an announcement about the peace talks with Iran could come soon, raising market expectations. However, he cautioned that the deal might be time-limited and not a permanent peace agreement yet.
Reports indicate US and Iran are close to finalizing peace framework
June 15 surges to 50%23%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran were nearing a broader peace agreement, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned that the deal might be time-limited.
US and Iran agree in principle to reopen Strait of Hormuz and start nuclear talks
December 31 surges to 75%21%
US and Iran agreed in principle to a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz and committing to negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, signaling significant diplomatic progress and boosting market confidence.
Trump says peace deal still pending presidential sign‑off
June 7 plunges to 6%66%
Trump announced that the deal still needed his signature, creating uncertainty and causing the market to tumble across all outcomes (e.g., “June 7” fell from 72 % to 6 %).
U.S. and Iran reach tentative 60‑day MOU to extend cease‑fire and start nuclear talks
October 31 jumps to 59%9%
U.S. officials reported a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to extend the cease‑fire for 60 days and begin nuclear talks, but it still required Trump’s final approval. The news nudged the October‑31 price upward to 59 % and the August‑31 price to 45 %.
US‑Iran unveil 60‑day cease‑fire extension framework
June 30 surges to 61%27%
U.S. and Iran released a joint framework that would extend the cease‑fire 60 days, de‑mine the Strait of Hormuz and start nuclear negotiations. The concrete step boosted confidence for later dates, pushing the “June 30” price to 61 % before it fell sharply.
Rubio says US‑Iran MOU close to finalisation, Hormuz may reopen
December 31 surges to 98%24%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that a memorandum of understanding was “close to finalisation,” and that the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened soon. This optimistic diplomatic cue drove a large surge in odds for all later dates, especially the December‑31 option (up to 98 %).
US and Iran Near Broader Peace Agreement as Draft Proposal Nears Finalization
June 30 surges to 72%38%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran were nearing a broader peace agreement, though officials cautioned that the initial deal might be a time-limited 60-day ceasefire extension rather than a permanent peace.
Trump says MOU with Iran largely negotiated
December 31 jumps to 78%10%
Reports emerged that a memorandum of understanding was close to finalisation, suggesting a framework for a lasting settlement, which lifted probabilities for the December‑31 and October‑31 dates.
Secretary of State Rubio signals imminent peace‑talks announcement
December 31 jumps to 82%9%
Rubio indicated that an announcement on the peace talks could come soon, though he warned the deal might be time‑limited. The comment lifted the “December 31” odds to a peak of 82 % and also raised the “July 31” price to 53 % after a period of stagnation.
Trump states memorandum of understanding close to finalization
July 31 surges to 71%18%
US President Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding with Iran was close to being finalized, suggesting progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire framework, which increased market optimism.
Iran accuses US of violating ceasefire amid ongoing negotiations
June 30 drops to 59%14%
On May 24, 2026, Iran's foreign ministry accused the US of violating the ceasefire with military strikes, casting doubt on the peace process and causing some market volatility.
US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement, memorandum of understanding close to finalization
December 31 jumps to 82%12%
On May 24, 2026, reports indicated that the US and Iran were close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding for a broader peace agreement, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which raised market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of 2026.
US suspends 'Project Freedom' to facilitate Israel-Iran peace talks
June 30 rises to 12%4%
The US President announced the suspension of 'Project Freedom,' a military operation escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as a gesture to facilitate diplomatic negotiations aimed at reaching a final agreement with Iran, seen as a positive indicator for peace talks.
US and Iran near broader peace agreement including reopening Strait of Hormuz
December 31 surges to 75%21%
Reports on May 24 indicated that the US and Iran were close to a broader peace agreement, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of 2026.
US and Iran to announce draft of peace deal within 24 hours
December 31 jumps to 75%10%
On May 23, 2026, top negotiators from the US and Iran approved a draft peace deal, which was sent to leaders of both nations for final approval. This development heightened market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of the year and mid-year dates.
Pakistan delegation visits Tehran to facilitate US-Iran talks amid tensions
June 30 surges to 75%34%
A Pakistani delegation met Iranian officials to arrange further US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration, raising hopes for diplomatic progress and boosting market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
President Trump claims peace deal with Iran largely negotiated
December 31 surges to 81%18%
On May 23, President Trump claimed that a peace deal with Iran had been largely negotiated after calls with a Pakistani mediator and regional leaders, raising market optimism significantly for longer-dated outcomes.
US and Iran expected to announce draft peace deal within 24 hours
June 15 surges to 50%30%
A source close to negotiations reported on May 23, 2026, that the US and Iran were expected to announce a finalized draft proposal of a peace deal by the next day. This raised market expectations for a near-term agreement, impacting prices positively.
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement
December 31 jumps to 88%14%
On May 23, 2026, reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding for peace, boosting market prices significantly for longer-term outcomes.
Trump says peace deal with Iran ‘largely negotiated’
December 31 surges to 88%23%
Trump posted on social media that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran was “largely negotiated”. The optimism drove the market to its highest point (88 % on 24 May) for the “December 31” outcome.
President Trump announces deal largely negotiated and Strait of Hormuz to reopen
December 31 surges to 78%24%
On May 23, President Trump announced that a broader agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement boosted market confidence significantly for longer-term peace deal outcomes.
Trump announces near-finalized peace deal including Strait of Hormuz reopening
December 31 surges to 71%17%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced a near-finalized peace deal with Iran, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day ceasefire extension. This announcement significantly boosted market confidence for longer-term peace outcomes.
President Trump states Iran deal largely negotiated and Strait of Hormuz to reopen
December 31 surges to 70%16%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks and boosting market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates.
President Trump announces agreement largely negotiated and Strait of Hormuz to reopen
December 31 surges to 76%22%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump stated that a broader agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress and boosting market confidence for longer-term peace deal outcomes.
Trump Announces Peace Deal with Iran is 'Largely Negotiated' and Strait of Hormuz to Reopen
December 31 surges to 86%15%
President Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding had been largely negotiated to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire, causing a massive surge in market optimism.
Reports of near-finalized US-Iran memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire
December 31 surges to 71%17%
On May 23, reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and start nuclear negotiations, boosting market optimism significantly for longer-term peace deal outcomes.
Trump says a US‑Iran peace deal is ‘largely negotiated’ and Hormuz will reopen
December 31 surges to 88%17%
Trump proclaimed on social media that a peace deal had been ‘largely negotiated’ and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. The claim sparked a brief rally in the December‑31 outcome, which rose to a high of 88 % on May 24 before retreating.
President Trump announces peace deal with Iran is largely negotiated
December 31 jumps to 65%11%
President Trump announced that a peace deal to end the war with Iran had been largely negotiated, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, significantly boosting market optimism for longer-term peace outcomes across multiple resolution dates.
President Trump announces Iran peace deal 'largely negotiated' after regional talks
December 31 jumps to 65%11%
President Trump announced on social media that a peace deal with Iran was 'largely negotiated' following calls with Gulf allies, Pakistan, and Israel. This announcement significantly boosted market optimism for a permanent peace deal, though Iran had not officially confirmed the deal, causing some uncertainty.
Trump declares broader Iran‑U.S. deal largely negotiated, promises Hormuz reopening
December 31 jumps to 78%5%
President Trump publicly said a broader agreement had been “largely negotiated” and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. The statement caused a sharp rise in the December‑31 and October‑31 odds, with the former peaking at 78 % on 10 May.
Trump says US‑Iran deal largely negotiated and Hormuz to reopen
July 31 surges to 79%30%
Trump’s televised remarks that a deal had been “largely negotiated” raised optimism, causing a +20‑point swing (May 23 → May 24) and beginning the market’s rapid climb toward 99 % for later dates.
President Trump announces US-Iran peace deal largely negotiated
December 31 jumps to 65%11%
Trump publicly stated that a peace deal to end the war with Iran had been largely negotiated, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement caused a significant surge in market prices for all later resolution dates, reflecting increased confidence in a permanent peace deal.
President Trump announces near-finalized peace agreement and Strait of Hormuz reopening
December 31 jumps to 77%14%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that a peace agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress and boosting market confidence for peace by later dates.
President Trump announces memorandum of understanding nearing finalization
December 31 surges to 74%20%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement significantly boosted market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of 2026.
Trump says Gulf‑leader call on Iran "went well" and hints at imminent announcement
June 15 jumps to 23%9%
Trump’s call with Gulf leaders that "went well" and his promise of an imminent announcement lifted sentiment, causing the June‑15 price to briefly rise before falling again as no formal agreement followed.
Market optimism rises on reports of improved US-Iran diplomatic talks
December 31 rises to 71%4%
Reports indicated ongoing indirect talks between the US and Iran were progressing despite setbacks, with some optimism expressed by analysts and officials. This led to a modest increase in market prices for longer-dated peace deal outcomes.
Vice President Vance leads new U.S. delegation to Pakistan for Iran talks
July 31 surges to 55%15%
Vance announced a new U.S. diplomatic push in Pakistan, signalling a possible fresh round of talks. The optimism lifted the “July 31” price from 40 % to 55 % by May 21.
New Iran peace proposal triggers tense Trump-Netanyahu call
June 30 jumps to 54%14%
A new peace effort aimed at securing tangible commitments from Iran on its nuclear program led to a tense call between Trump and Netanyahu, reflecting regional skepticism and complicating peace prospects.
US-Iran talks planned in Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire efforts
December 31 jumps to 72%5%
US President Trump announced plans for US negotiators to head to Pakistan for further talks with Iran, maintaining diplomatic momentum despite military tensions, which supported market gains for longer-term peace outcomes.
U.S. forces disable two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
December 31 rises to 71%3%
U.S. forces disabled two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming the blockade’s forceful enforcement. This renewed military pressure nudged the “December 31” price upward from 68 % to 71 % on May 21.
Trump pauses planned military attack after Iran sends peace proposal
December 31 jumps to 71%6%
President Trump announced he had paused a planned attack on Iran following receipt of a peace proposal from Tehran, indicating a 'very good chance' of reaching a deal. This caused a significant price increase in the market for a permanent peace deal.
Trump and Netanyahu discuss Iran talks and regional security
December 31 rises to 69%1%
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met to discuss ongoing negotiations with Iran and regional security issues, emphasizing continued US pressure on Iran. This meeting underscored the complexity of the peace process and contributed to mixed market reactions.
Trump pauses planned attack after Iran sends peace proposal, signals deal possible
December 31 jumps to 71%9%
On May 18, President Trump announced a pause in planned military action against Iran following receipt of a peace proposal from Tehran, indicating a 'very good chance' of reaching a deal. This caused a significant price increase in the market for a permanent peace deal.
Regional leaders urge US to hold off military attack as serious negotiations take place
December 31 surges to 79%16%
On May 18, regional leaders including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE asked the US to delay planned military attacks on Iran due to ongoing serious negotiations, briefly boosting market optimism for a peace deal.
Trump claims planned attack on Iran postponed after Tehran makes new proposal to end war
May 31 surges to 30%16%
President Trump postponed a planned attack on Iran following a new peace proposal from Tehran, which temporarily raised hopes for a peace deal and influenced market optimism.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled talks; Trump cancels envoy trip
May 22 dips to 6%1%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Pakistan to continue indirect talks, but President Trump canceled sending envoys due to lack of progress, suggesting phone talks instead. This uncertainty contributed to low market confidence in a peace deal by May 22.
U.S. maintains naval blockade despite cease‑fire expiration
Yes dips to 4%2%
The United States announced the blockade would remain in force after the cease‑fire expired, confirming no imminent permanent settlement and pushing the market to its lowest point.
President Trump sends nuclear proposal to Iran urging swift progress
June 15 dips to 18%2%
On May 16, 2026, President Trump sent a nuclear proposal to Iran, warning that swift progress was necessary to avoid serious consequences, signaling a critical moment in negotiations and impacting market prices for mid-June outcomes.
Oil prices dip as markets anticipate possible US‑Iran agreement
December 31 jumps to 69%6%
Falling oil prices reflected optimism that a deal might be near, briefly lifting the price for the December‑31 outcome.
US extends cease‑fire at Pakistan’s request while awaiting unified Iranian proposal
December 31 rises to 77%3%
The extension temporarily lifted odds for the December‑31 outcome, reflected in a price rise that day.
Trump says he is reviewing new Iranian proposal but skeptical of deal
May 15 dips to 0%1%
President Trump announced he was reviewing a new Iranian peace proposal but expressed skepticism about its acceptability, indicating ongoing negotiation challenges. This contributed to a further decline in market optimism for a peace deal by May 15.
Trump meets Netanyahu, insists US talks with Iran continue
December 31 rises to 67%4%
President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and emphasized that US negotiations with Iran would continue despite challenges. This meeting underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts, supporting market optimism for a longer-term peace deal by year-end.
Iran’s economy suffers from soaring inflation amid blockade
Yes dips to 6%3%
Reports of hyper‑inflation and economic strain in Iran reduced optimism that Tehran would compromise, further lowering the market’s peace odds.
Iranian reformists detained amid crackdown during nuclear talks with US
June 30 dips to 34%4%
Iran's security forces arrested reformist figures amid nationwide protests and ongoing nuclear negotiations with the US, signaling internal political instability. This crackdown likely dampened market confidence in a near-term peace deal due to increased domestic tensions in Iran.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 dips to 10%4%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership, which dampened market optimism for a near-term permanent peace deal.
Iran detains leading human‑rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh
May 15 drops to 0%7%
The crackdown on dissent signaled internal instability in Iran, further weakening expectations of a durable peace and pushing the May 15 price to zero.
Iran’s president calls for ‘fair and equitable’ negotiations amid US drone shootdown
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Iran’s president instructed the foreign minister to pursue fair negotiations with the US, signaling Tehran’s interest in diplomacy despite military tensions including a US shootdown of an Iranian drone. This nuanced stance maintained some market optimism for a peace deal by year-end.
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan for renewed negotiations
May 31 drops to 24%7%
The foreign minister’s visit was seen as a concrete step toward a diplomatic resolution, briefly stabilizing market sentiment for the May 31 outcome before subsequent setbacks.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran will not compromise on nuclear issue
June 30 plunges to 38%17%
Araghchi’s hard‑line statement reduced optimism for any near‑term agreement, further depressing the June‑30 odds.
Iran's chief negotiator issues ultimatum to US to accept peace proposal or face failure
June 30 drops to 25%9%
Iran's chief negotiator warned the US to accept Tehran's 14-point peace proposal or face failure, highlighting stalled negotiations and reducing market confidence in near-term peace agreements.
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad
May 31 dips to 28%3%
On April 11-12, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, but no agreement was reached, leading to some market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Trump says he will not send envoys to Pakistan for talks
Yes dips to 9%3%
Trump cancelled the planned envoy trip, signaling a retreat from diplomatic engagement and further depressing market expectations of a permanent deal.
U.S. blockade leads to seizure of additional Iranian tankers
May 13 drops to 0%14%
Further interdictions reinforced the perception that the conflict was far from resolution, pushing the market for the May 13 outcome toward zero.
Trump announces “Project Freedom” to guide ships out of Hormuz, then pauses it
December 31 drops to 70%8%
The brief opening of the strait raised optimism, but the sudden pause signaled uncertainty, causing a modest dip in Yes prices across all dates.
US‑Iran ceasefire set to expire, no new deal announced
May 31 plunges to 8%28%
The imminent expiry of the ceasefire without a fresh agreement reinforced market pessimism, pushing prices down to their lowest levels for the May‑31 deadline.
US Navy disables two more Iranian tankers, raising cease‑fire doubts
June 15 dips to 16%1%
Continued US interdictions further eroded confidence in a swift settlement, pulling down the June‑15 odds to their lowest level.
Iran detains reformist leaders amid post‑protest crackdown
May 22 dips to 4%3%
A crackdown on reformist figures after nationwide protests signaled internal instability in Tehran, reducing confidence that Iran could negotiate a durable peace. The “May 22” price fell from 7 % to 4 % on May 11‑12.
Trump extends ceasefire but maintains naval blockade on Iran
December 31 drops to 71%7%
President Trump extended the ceasefire between the US and Iran but insisted on maintaining the naval blockade, signaling ongoing conflict risks. This mixed message caused market fluctuations and uncertainty about a permanent peace deal by mid-2026.
Trump calls Iran’s response to peace plan ‘totally unacceptable’ as ceasefire frays
May 31 rises to 12%1%
President Trump rejected Iran’s counterproposal to end the war, calling it totally unacceptable and highlighting ongoing divisions. This rejection caused market confidence to decline for near-term peace deal dates.
Trump cancels US envoys’ trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, suggests phone call instead
June 30 drops to 41%13%
US President Trump called off the planned envoy mission to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, and proposed phone negotiations, signaling stalled diplomacy and reducing market optimism for a near-term deal.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 dips to 10%2%
US forces engaged Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and casting doubt on the ceasefire's stability, negatively impacting market confidence in near-term peace deals.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fires on additional vessels
Yes drops to 12%6%
Further attacks on commercial shipping reinforced the perception that Iran would not relent without a definitive agreement, pushing odds lower.
Rubio says Iran’s new Strait authority is “unacceptable”
June 30 jumps to 43%10%
Rubio publicly demanded that Iran cease operating a newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” heightening diplomatic pressure. The announcement coincided with a brief rally in the “June 30” market, lifting it from 33 % to 43 % on May 9‑10.
Trump warns Iran against rebuilding nuclear program, urges deal
December 31 rises to 67%4%
President Trump publicly warned Iran not to rebuild its nuclear program and expressed belief that Iran wants a deal, reflecting ongoing US pressure and signaling potential for future agreement.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 drops to 13%6%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, undermining the fragile ceasefire and raising doubts about the prospects for a permanent peace deal. The incident contributed to market declines for near-term resolution dates.
Iran announces a new 14‑point proposal via Pakistan
May 31 plunges to 12%19%
The proposal raised hopes for a deal but the lack of immediate acceptance kept the market bearish for the earliest deadline.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 5%10%
A direct military engagement by U.S. forces heightened tensions and signaled a possible escalation, causing the market to sharply downgrade the chances of any peace deal before May 15.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the fragile ceasefire and raising doubts about the prospects for a permanent peace deal. The US awaited a serious offer from Iran to end the war.
U.S. fires on and disables 2 Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 11%8%
U.S. forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanging fire with Iranian forces, casting more doubt on the ceasefire and raising market volatility.
Iran fires ballistic missiles at Israel amid cease‑fire
June 30 dips to 58%4%
Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, marking the first direct strike since the cease‑fire. The escalation briefly depressed odds (price dip around May 11), but the effect was short‑lived.
Trump hosts Congo and Rwanda leaders for US-mediated peace deal
December 31 rises to 67%4%
President Trump celebrated a US-mediated peace deal between Congo and Rwanda, showcasing his peacemaking efforts globally. While unrelated directly to US-Iran relations, this event briefly boosted Trump's image as a dealmaker, slightly supporting optimism for a US-Iran peace deal by December 31.
Trump says Iran has offered a “much better” proposal
May 15 dips to 5%4%
Trump’s comment that Iran’s latest offer was substantially improved revived optimism for a quick deal, causing a short‑term price uptick for the May 15 outcome.
Pakistan mediators report progress toward a new U.S.–Iran agreement
June 30 surges to 54%20%
Positive statements from Pakistani officials lifted market sentiment, temporarily raising Yes prices for the later June 30 and December 31 horizons.
US and Iran close to one-page memorandum to end war, peace proposal under review
December 31 jumps to 65%11%
Reports indicated that the US and Iran were close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum to end the war, with Iran reviewing the US peace proposal. This raised market optimism, reflected in price increases for longer-dated outcomes.
U.S. Navy shoots down Iranian fast boats near the Strait
May 31 plunges to 19%25%
A direct military engagement further diminished hopes for a quick settlement, sharply reducing the May 31 and June 30 probabilities.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
Yes drops to 18%6%
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the cease‑fire was fragile, prompting a sharp drop in market confidence for a permanent peace.
Trump says Iran has sent a ‘much better’ proposal via Pakistan
July 31 dips to 46%1%
Trump’s comment that Iran’s new proposal was “much better” revived optimism for a permanent deal, pushing the July‑31 odds higher.
President Trump pauses 'Project Freedom' amid progress toward US-Iran agreement
December 31 rises to 66%4%
Trump announced a pause in military operations called 'Project Freedom' due to requests from Pakistan and other countries and progress toward a US-Iran agreement, briefly boosting market optimism.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
Yes drops to 24%6%
President Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s new proposal, reinforcing the perception that a permanent deal was unlikely and driving prices down.
Trump hints at “shoot and kill” policy against small boats in Hormuz
May 15 drops to 7%8%
Escalatory rhetoric raised the prospect of renewed combat, pushing Yes prices lower for the near‑term May 15 deadline.
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed US‑Iran talks
Yes dips to 36%2%
A brief rally in Asian equities on reports that diplomats were working on a new round of talks gave a modest lift to market optimism, temporarily halting the price decline.
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed US‑Iran talks
May 31 dips to 12%2%
Stocks rose in Asia after reports that back‑channel diplomacy was progressing, briefly boosting confidence in a May 31 settlement.
Trump reviews new Iranian proposal to end war but remains skeptical
May 15 plunges to 0%15%
President Trump announced he was reviewing a new 14-point Iranian proposal to end the war but expressed doubt it would be acceptable, reflecting ongoing negotiation challenges. This tempered market optimism for a permanent peace deal by mid-May and end of May.
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed US‑Iran negotiations
December 31 rises to 74%4%
Positive market sentiment from Asian equities reflected optimism about diplomatic talks, nudging the December‑31 odds upward.
U.S. extends the naval blockade of Iranian ports for another week
May 22 dips to 4%3%
The extension signaled continued pressure on Tehran, reducing confidence that a deal would be signed before the May 22 deadline.
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal citing fractured leadership
May 31 plunges to 11%19%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership. This rejection dampened hopes for a near-term permanent peace deal, causing market prices for earlier resolution dates to fall sharply.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 drops to 11%6%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership. This rejection dampened hopes for a near-term permanent peace deal, causing market prices for earlier resolution dates to fall.
Trump tells Congress war with Iran has terminated
December 31 jumps to 70%7%
Trump wrote to Congress that hostilities had terminated, reinforcing the perception that a permanent cease‑fire was near and boosting the market for the December‑31 option.
Iran announces reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Yes dips to 30%3%
After a brief reopening, Iran closed the strait again, creating volatility that pushed market odds down further.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled talks; Trump calls off envoy trip
June 30 drops to 35%5%
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan to pursue ceasefire talks, but President Trump canceled the US envoy mission citing lack of progress, opting for phone negotiations instead. This uncertainty contributed to declining market confidence for a peace deal by June 30 and July 31.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 drops to 12%5%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran's fractured leadership. This rejection dampened market hopes for a near-term permanent peace deal.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
June 30 drops to 34%10%
US forces engaged Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and casting doubt on the ceasefire's stability, which negatively impacted market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
May 31 dips to 14%4%
The sanctions warning added economic pressure on Iran and signaled a tougher U.S. stance, pushing market prices for later deadlines lower.
Iran and US agree to hold nuclear talks in Oman
December 31 jumps to 69%7%
Iranian Foreign Minister announced nuclear talks with the US to be held in Oman, signaling a willingness to negotiate despite ongoing tensions. This development increased market confidence in a potential peace deal by the end of the year.
Iran submits new proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting blockade
Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its naval blockade and agrees to a long-term truce, deferring nuclear talks. The US found the offer better but unlikely to accept it without addressing nuclear issues, causing market uncertainty.
Trump says Iran has sent a “much better” proposal but he remains unsatisfied
June 15 dips to 14%4%
The mixed signal kept the market uncertain, leading to a modest decline for the mid‑term outcomes.
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan before heading to Moscow
June 15 dips to 14%3%
The brief return created confusion about the status of negotiations, further dampening market optimism for a quick deal.
Iran’s foreign minister says Iran sent a “much better” proposal
Yes drops to 33%5%
Iranian officials reported sending a revised 14‑point proposal to the United States, raising hopes for a deal but ultimately failing to move the market upward.
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan; Trump suggests phone talks
May 31 dips to 11%1%
Iran’s foreign minister made a brief return to Pakistan amid ongoing mediation efforts, but President Trump indicated that future talks could occur by phone rather than in-person, reflecting stalled diplomacy and uncertainty about a permanent peace deal soon.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan but US cancels envoy trip
June 15 dips to 18%2%
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan amid efforts to reignite talks, but President Trump canceled the US envoy mission due to lack of progress, suggesting phone talks instead. This development lowered market confidence in a near-term peace deal, reflected in price drops for May 31 and June 15 outcomes.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled envoy mission
December 31 dips to 63%1%
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan as US envoy mission was canceled by Trump due to lack of progress, signaling stalled direct talks and increasing uncertainty about a near-term permanent peace deal.
Trump says US envoys will not travel to Islamabad for Iran talks
Yes drops to 38%6%
Trump’s decision to cancel the planned envoy trip signaled a further stall in negotiations, prompting another price decline.
Iran sends 'much better' proposal to U.S. after Trump cancels talks
Iran sent a 'much better' proposal to the U.S. shortly after Trump canceled the talks mission, providing a brief positive market signal.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled talks; Trump calls off envoy trip
June 30 dips to 31%4%
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan to pursue negotiations, but President Trump canceled the planned envoy visit due to lack of progress, signaling stalled diplomacy and reducing market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Trump cancels US envoys’ trip to Pakistan, suggests phone talks with Iran
December 31 jumps to 74%11%
President Trump called off the planned US envoy mission to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, but indicated willingness to talk by phone, reflecting stalled direct negotiations and causing mixed market reactions.
Diplomats work through back‑channels to arrange a new US‑Iran round of talks
June 30 plunges to 55%15%
Back‑channel efforts signaled possible progress, modestly improving odds for the June‑30 and July‑31 outcomes after a period of decline.
Trump says Iran has offered a ‘much better’ peace proposal
December 31 jumps to 78%8%
President Trump publicly noted that Iran had submitted a more favorable proposal, raising hopes for a settlement and pushing the market’s probability for a December‑31 deal higher.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal as unsatisfactory
Yes drops to 39%7%
The president’s dismissal of a new Iranian proposal reduced expectations of a deal, causing another price decline.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 15 drops to 0%10%
President Trump called off the planned US delegation trip to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress. This move dampened market optimism for a near-term peace deal and contributed to price declines for earlier resolution dates.
Trump cancels US envoys’ trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
June 15 dips to 17%3%
President Trump called off the planned US delegation trip to Pakistan due to lack of progress, suggesting talks could continue by phone, which dampened near-term market confidence in a peace deal but left longer-term hopes intact.
Trump cancels planned US delegation to Pakistan for Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 33%36%
The cancellation removed a key diplomatic channel, causing the market to price in a longer timeline for any agreement.
Iran’s foreign minister leaves Pakistan amid stalled US-Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 46%20%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departed Islamabad after talks failed to produce a permanent peace deal, with Iran expressing skepticism about US seriousness, leading to market declines in near-term deal probabilities.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 31 drops to 12%6%
President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, citing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran's fractured leadership. This rejection dampened market optimism, causing a decline in prices for near-term peace deal outcomes like May 31 and June 15.
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid ongoing blockade and threats
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
Following the US blockade and Iran's threats, diplomats sought to organize another round of talks, with Pakistan playing a key role. Despite the fragile ceasefire, the market showed cautious optimism for a longer-term peace deal but remained skeptical about near-term resolution.
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan, Trump says talks can be by phone
Yes drops to 46%8%
Araghchi’s brief return and Trump’s refusal to send envoys signaled stalled diplomacy, pulling Yes prices down.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, suggests phone calls instead
December 31 drops to 70%8%
President Trump called off the planned trip of US envoys to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, and proposed phone negotiations. This move dampened market optimism for a near-term peace deal.
Trump cancels Iran talks delegation to Pakistan
June 15 surges to 35%15%
Trump canceled the mission to send envoys to Pakistan after a lack of progress with Iran, suggesting the sides could talk by phone instead, which caused market uncertainty.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 12%7%
President Trump called off the planned US delegation trip to Pakistan for further talks with Iran, signaling a setback in negotiations and increasing uncertainty about reaching a permanent peace deal soon.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, suggests phone negotiations
June 30 dips to 50%3%
President Trump called off the planned envoy trip to Pakistan for direct talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, and proposed phone discussions instead. This indicated stalled negotiations and increased uncertainty about a peace deal, impacting market confidence negatively for near-term outcomes.
Iran’s top diplomat leaves Pakistan; Trump cancels envoy trip
May 31 drops to 12%7%
Iran’s foreign minister left Pakistan abruptly, and President Trump announced he had told US envoys not to travel to Islamabad for further talks, signaling a breakdown in scheduled negotiations and reducing near-term optimism for a permanent peace deal.
Iran’s foreign minister shares Iran’s position on permanent peace framework in Pakistan
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Pakistani officials to discuss Iran’s red lines for negotiations and shared Iran’s position on a workable framework to permanently end the war, signaling ongoing but cautious diplomacy that maintained market uncertainty.
Trump extends ceasefire with Iran indefinitely amid ongoing talks
December 31 jumps to 66%12%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, signaling a temporary halt in fighting but no permanent peace deal. This maintained some market optimism but underscored unresolved major issues.
Iranian threats and US blockade strain ceasefire in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 dips to 28%2%
US forces disabled two Iranian tankers amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran formalizing control over the waterway, increasing doubts about the ceasefire's durability and peace prospects.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 plunges to 38%23%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and highlighting Iran's fractured leadership. This rejection dampened near-term optimism for a peace deal, reflected in falling market prices for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction
US President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership. This rejection dampened market confidence in a near-term peace deal and contributed to price declines for earlier resolution dates.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Pakistan, acting as a mediator, engaged with Iranian officials to facilitate further US-Iran talks and extend the ceasefire. Reports of an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire raised hopes for diplomacy, temporarily boosting market optimism for a peace deal.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
July 31 drops to 38%12%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This action cast doubt on the ceasefire's durability and reduced market optimism for a peace deal by June 30 and July 31.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
June 15 dips to 17%3%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership, which dampened hopes for a near-term peace deal and led to a decline in market prices for earlier resolution dates.
Iran fires on ships in Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade
May 31 drops to 32%6%
Iranian forces fired on ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and undermining ceasefire stability. This increased doubts about a permanent peace deal by May 31 and June 30.
Trump orders U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” small boats in Hormuz
Yes drops to 38%12%
President Trump announced a hard‑line military directive to target Iranian vessels, signaling escalation and driving the market sharply lower.
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire but maintains naval blockade
June 15 dips to 18%2%
President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran but insisted on maintaining the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, signaling continued economic pressure and unresolved conflict. This mixed message kept market confidence low for a permanent peace deal by June 15 and June 30.
Trump orders U.S. forces to “shoot and kill” small boats in Hormuz
May 15 drops to 9%6%
Trump’s aggressive directive signaled a willingness to use force, further eroding market expectations of a diplomatic resolution before the May 15 deadline.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 13%9%
The US naval action further escalated the standoff, pushing market sentiment toward a ‘No’ outcome for all dates, especially the near‑term May‑31 option.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 34%22%
The direct engagement signaled a possible escalation, sharply reducing the probability of a near‑term peace deal.
Ceasefire between US and Iran expires amid stalled talks
May 15 plunges to 0%15%
The expiration of the ceasefire without a new agreement heightened tensions and uncertainty. Both sides remained divided on key issues such as Iran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to market declines for near-term peace deal probabilities.
Diplomats attempt back‑channel talks amid US blockade
Yes dips to 44%4%
Back‑channel efforts were reported but no concrete progress was announced, keeping market expectations low for any near‑term permanent agreement.
Iran seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz despite US ceasefire extension
June 30 drops to 34%12%
Despite the ceasefire extension, Iranian forces fired on and seized multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and disrupting a critical global trade route. This action challenged the fragile truce and raised doubts about the prospects for a permanent peace deal, negatively impacting market confidence.
US extends ceasefire with Iran amid ongoing negotiations
December 31 rises to 78%4%
President Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire agreed with Iran, signaling willingness to continue diplomacy despite ongoing military and economic tensions. This extension provided some market support for a potential peace deal.
Pakistan mediates progress toward extending US-Iran ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Pakistani officials reported an 'in principle agreement' between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire, with ongoing talks involving Iran's foreign minister and Pakistan's army chief. This diplomatic progress briefly raised market optimism for a peace deal extension.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to push for more US-Iran talks
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister to ease tensions and arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires. This diplomatic effort briefly raised hopes for a deal, reflected in a temporary price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Pakistani mediators work to arrange new US-Iran ceasefire talks as tensions rise
Pakistan continued efforts to mediate between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and reach a peace deal amid ongoing military tensions and economic sanctions. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for a longer-term peace agreement.
President Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely awaiting Iran's proposal
December 31 surges to 77%23%
President Trump extended the two-week ceasefire indefinitely on April 21, 2026, citing internal divisions in Iran and awaiting a unified proposal from Iran to end the conflict. This extension temporarily boosted market optimism for a peace deal by later dates.
Trump announces indefinite extension of Iran‑U.S. cease‑fire
June 30 plunges to 41%32%
Trump announced an indefinite extension of the cease‑fire while maintaining the blockade, signaling no imminent settlement. The mixed message caused the “June 30” price to wobble around the low‑40 % range, down from the high‑70 % peak a week earlier.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct talks in decades brokered by US
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Lebanon and Israel conducted historic direct diplomatic talks in Washington, facilitated by the US, signaling regional diplomatic progress. However, Hezbollah opposed the talks, and the conflict with Iran-backed groups continued, limiting immediate impact on US-Iran peace prospects.
President Trump extends US ceasefire with Iran indefinitely pending proposal submission
President Trump extended the two-week ceasefire indefinitely, citing a fractured Iranian government and awaiting a unified Iranian proposal to end the war, which maintained market cautiousness.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
May 13 drops to 14%8%
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the ceasefire could collapse, prompting traders to sharply reduce the probability of a permanent agreement before the May 13 deadline.
U.S. and Iran resume indirect talks in Pakistan after blockade
December 31 jumps to 70%7%
Back‑channel negotiations were reported to be underway, offering a glimmer of diplomatic progress that temporarily boosted the market’s outlook for a deal by the end of the year.
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire but maintains naval blockade
June 30 drops to 57%9%
President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely while keeping the naval blockade, signaling ongoing conflict risk and unresolved issues. This mixed message affected market confidence, especially for near-term peace deal dates.
Trump extends cease‑fire but maintains blockade
Yes jumps to 54%8%
Trump’s announcement of an indefinite cease‑fire extension offered a brief optimism boost, nudging Yes prices upward.
US President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
June 15 dips to 17%3%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal lowered expectations for any imminent agreement, causing a sharp drop in the June‑15 and June‑30 odds.
U.S. extends the cease‑fire for another week
Yes jumps to 50%5%
The White House announced an extension of the fragile cease‑fire, temporarily easing market concerns and causing a modest rebound in prices.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks aiming to extend ceasefire and negotiate peace
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Pakistan hosted direct talks between the US and Iran, with officials reporting an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire and continue diplomacy. This development raised hopes for a peace deal, reflected in modest market optimism for longer-term resolution dates.
President Trump extends the US‑Iran ceasefire indefinitely
June 15 rises to 21%1%
The extension offered a brief reprieve but did not resolve core issues, causing only a modest rebound in market confidence for later deadlines.
Pakistan mediates between US and Iran amid talks to extend ceasefire
June 30 surges to 66%25%
Pakistani officials engaged with Iranian and US representatives to bridge differences and extend the ceasefire, signaling some diplomatic progress and temporarily boosting market optimism for a peace deal.
Trump extends US‑Iran cease‑fire indefinitely, maintains blockade
December 31 surges to 71%17%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the April 7 two‑week cease‑fire while keeping the U.S. naval blockade in place. The announcement was interpreted as a willingness to keep diplomatic channels open, pushing the market’s “December 31” odds up from the low‑50s to the mid‑70s percent range.
President Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely until Iran submits peace proposal
June 30 surges to 70%20%
On April 21, 2026, President Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely until Iran submits a proposal to end the conflict, signaling continued diplomatic efforts and temporarily boosting market confidence for a peace deal by later dates.
Sen. Graham backs naval blockade as pressure on Iran
July 31 plunges to 39%16%
Graham’s public support for maintaining the naval blockade signaled a tougher U.S. stance, which corresponded with a modest decline in the “July 31” odds (from ~55 % to 39 % by early June).
President Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely amid ongoing talks
July 31 drops to 39%11%
President Trump extended the two-week ceasefire indefinitely on April 21, citing a fractured Iranian government and the need for Iran to submit a unified peace proposal. This extension maintained diplomatic momentum but underscored the fragility of the ceasefire, influencing market prices downward for nearer-term deals.
President Trump unilaterally extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely
December 31 surges to 71%17%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the two-week ceasefire to allow both sides to continue peace talks, which significantly boosted long-term peace expectations.
President Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely pending Tehran proposal
Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire to allow Iran more time to submit a comprehensive peace proposal, maintaining fragile truce conditions but without a permanent peace deal. This extension kept market optimism cautious but hopeful.
President Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely until Iran submits peace proposal
President Trump unilaterally extended the two-week ceasefire indefinitely on April 21, 2026, until Iran submits a proposal to end the conflict, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and temporarily boosting market confidence for later peace deal dates.
President Trump extends US ceasefire with Iran indefinitely
December 31 surges to 73%19%
President Trump extended the US ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, citing a fractured Iranian government and awaiting a unified proposal from Iran to end the war. This extension removed the ceasefire's time pressure, affecting market confidence in a swift permanent deal.
President Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely citing fractured Iranian government
June 30 surges to 67%26%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, citing Tehran's fractured leadership. This extension maintained some market optimism but underscored unresolved issues, causing moderate price fluctuations.
President Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely pending proposal submission
June 30 drops to 40%13%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran until Iran submits a proposal to end the conflict, maintaining market optimism but introducing uncertainty about the timeline for a permanent deal.
President Trump Unilaterally Extends Ceasefire with Iran Indefinitely
June 30 plunges to 40%23%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the two-week ceasefire to allow for further peace proposals, though he maintained the naval blockade, creating mixed signals in the market.
Trump extends cease‑fire as talks continue
June 30 jumps to 54%13%
The abrupt cease‑fire extension removed the looming deadline, causing a modest early rise (April 21 → May 4) that set the market on an upward trajectory.
President Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely pending Iran's peace proposal
President Trump unilaterally extended the two-week ceasefire indefinitely on April 21, 2026, awaiting a comprehensive peace proposal from Iran. This extension maintained fragile truce conditions and temporarily boosted market confidence for later peace deal dates.
US seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz, Iran vows swift response
May 13 plunges to 0%22%
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, marking a ceasefire violation and escalating tensions. President Trump announced US negotiators would attend talks in Pakistan, but Iran had not confirmed participation, maintaining uncertainty about peace progress.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
June 30 dips to 53%1%
The US Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, provoking Iran's vow of swift response. This incident increased hostilities and uncertainty about peace negotiations.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 31 drops to 23%8%
President Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s newest offer, removing any immediate optimism for a deal and causing a further drop in market confidence for all outcomes.
U.S. Navy seizes an Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz
July 31 dips to 47%3%
The seizure underscored the risk of direct conflict, further eroding confidence in a swift diplomatic resolution.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 26 drops to 10%9%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, prompting Iran to vow a swift response and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This incident increased market uncertainty and lowered confidence in a peace deal by May 31 and May 26.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, prompting Iran to vow a swift response and casting doubt on the ceasefire's durability. This heightened tensions and lowered short-term peace deal probabilities.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 19%11%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, prompting Iran to vow swift retaliation. This military escalation cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire and the prospects for imminent peace talks, negatively impacting market confidence for near-term deals.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait
Yes drops to 46%8%
The first seizure since the blockade signaled a direct confrontation, further eroding market confidence in a swift peace settlement.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 30%14%
U.S. forces seized an Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, the first interception since the blockade began. The aggressive action deepened doubts about the cease‑fire’s durability, causing a sharp drop in the “May 31” price from 44 % to 30 % on April 20.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 15 drops to 12%6%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and began firing on vessels, reversing a brief reopening. This escalation pushed the “June 15” market down to single‑digit levels as traders saw the war‑ending outlook receding.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again, fires on ships amid US blockade
June 30 drops to 57%9%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard fully closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting passage, escalating military tensions and threatening the fragile ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term permanent peace deal.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and threatening global energy supplies. This action challenged the fragile ceasefire and reduced market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on passing ships
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
The IRGC announced a full closure of the strategic waterway and engaged vessels, dramatically raising the risk of continued conflict and lowering market confidence in a permanent peace deal.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s IRGC announced the complete closure of the strategic waterway and engaged vessels, signaling a hardening stance that pushed market prices for a peace deal sharply lower.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
Yes drops to 45%12%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and opened fire on vessels, intensifying the strategic standoff and pushing market odds down sharply.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships after US blockade
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
Iran fully closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass in retaliation to the US naval blockade, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting near-term peace deal probabilities.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to US blockade
May 31 drops to 20%10%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions after the US blockade of Iranian ports. This action threatened to deepen the conflict and caused a drop in market confidence for a near-term peace deal, with prices falling notably for the June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on passing ships
June 30 drops to 34%7%
The closure heightened the strategic stakes and suggested Iran would not concede without significant pressure, pushing down prices for all outcomes.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
June 30 drops to 54%11%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz again and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions with the US naval blockade. This heightened conflict risk and economic disruption, reducing market optimism for a quick permanent peace deal.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
Yes drops to 54%14%
Iran’s closure of the strategic waterway heightened the risk of renewed hostilities, causing a sharp decline in Yes probabilities for all dates.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan for renewed talks
Yes rises to 57%4%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad, suggesting a possible restart of negotiations, which lifted the market slightly before the cease‑fire deadline.
Historic face-to-face US-Iran talks in Pakistan end without agreement
June 30 dips to 66%4%
A 21-hour direct negotiation between US and Iranian delegations in Pakistan failed to produce a permanent peace deal, with nuclear program disputes cited as a key sticking point. This maintained uncertainty and limited near-term deal prospects.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan for renewed talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
Abbas Araghchi’s brief visit raised hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough, temporarily lifting odds for the June‑30 and July‑31 outcomes.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
June 30 dips to 54%3%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to ease tensions and arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move raised hopes for progress, temporarily supporting market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to set up new U.S.–Iran talks
July 31 jumps to 45%7%
A Pakistani delegation met Iranian officials in Islamabad to arrange a second round of U.S.–Iran talks before the cease‑fire expired. The news lifted hopes for a quick settlement, pushing the “July 31” price up from the low‑40s to the mid‑50s.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions
December 31 jumps to 74%11%
Pakistan, acting as a mediator, engaged with Iranian officials to facilitate further US-Iran talks and reported an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire, boosting hopes for diplomacy.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks showing progress toward ceasefire extension
June 30 surges to 70%29%
Pakistani officials reported an 'in principle agreement' between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire, with ongoing talks involving Iran's foreign minister and Pakistan's army chief. This diplomatic progress raised market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
Pakistan emerges as key mediator in US-Iran talks to extend ceasefire
May 31 surges to 55%25%
Pakistan hosted direct talks between the US and Iran, with officials reporting an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire and continue diplomacy, briefly boosting market confidence in a peace deal by May 31.
Diplomats work through back channels to arrange a new US‑Iran round of talks
May 31 drops to 31%13%
Back‑channel efforts raised hopes for renewed negotiations, temporarily boosting the market’s optimism for a near‑term deal.
Pakistan mediates progress toward extending US-Iran ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 54%13%
Pakistani officials reported an 'in principle agreement' between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire, raising hopes for further diplomacy despite ongoing tensions and the US blockade. This improved market sentiment for longer-term peace outcomes.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fires on ships attempting to pass the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 22%6%
Iran’s aggressive action heightened tensions and reduced market confidence that a permanent peace could be achieved before the cease‑fire expires, further depressing the May‑31 and June‑15 odds.
Diplomats work to arrange a new round of U.S.–Iran talks
Yes dips to 68%2%
Back‑channel efforts by Pakistani officials and the UN to restart negotiations signaled possible progress, temporarily boosting confidence in a peace outcome.
President Trump announces a full naval blockade of all Iranian ports
May 22 dips to 4%3%
Trump declared the U.S. would maintain a blockade until Tehran agrees to a deal, signaling a hard‑line stance and lowering expectations for a quick peace agreement.
US enacts naval blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled talks
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
The US announced a military blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, raising tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This blockade was part of an effort to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal, but Iran threatened retaliation, increasing market uncertainty.
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid US blockade
June 30 surges to 71%30%
On April 14, diplomats engaged in back-channel efforts to schedule new talks between the US and Iran following the US blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump indicated talks could occur in Islamabad soon, raising hopes and causing a rally in related markets.
Historic face-to-face talks between US and Iran in Pakistan end without agreement
June 30 surges to 70%29%
The first round of direct talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan lasted 21 hours but ended without an agreement, highlighting the difficulty of reaching a permanent peace deal. This event initially raised hopes but ultimately led to market uncertainty.
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid US blockade
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Diplomats engaged in back-channel efforts to schedule a new round of talks between the US and Iran following the US blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump indicated talks could occur within two days in Islamabad, signaling potential progress and raising market optimism for a peace deal.
US announces military blockade of all Iranian ports amid stalled talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a US military blockade on all Iranian ports following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move aimed to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a peace deal, causing market uncertainty about a permanent agreement by June 30.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports after failed Pakistan talks
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Following unsuccessful ceasefire talks in Pakistan, US President Donald Trump declared a military blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into accepting a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation increased tensions and reduced near-term peace deal probabilities.
US imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid stalled talks
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
Following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, President Trump announced a US naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, impacting market confidence in a near-term permanent peace agreement.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks aiming to extend ceasefire
June 30 surges to 82%41%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister to ease tensions and arrange further US-Iran talks before the ceasefire expiration. Reports indicated an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire, raising hopes for diplomacy but without a permanent deal yet.
US imposes military blockade on Iranian ports amid stalled talks
June 30 drops to 59%7%
Following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, President Trump announced a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move caused market confidence in near-term peace deals to drop.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
Yes drops to 53%5%
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the US would maintain pressure on Iran, reducing optimism for a swift permanent settlement.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a military blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a deal, following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting near-term peace deal probabilities.
Pakistan pushes for new US-Iran talks amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 surges to 71%30%
Pakistan's diplomatic efforts to arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations raised hopes for a peace deal, temporarily boosting market confidence for later resolution dates. The talks aimed to bridge differences after the initial round failed to end the conflict.
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
June 30 drops to 34%7%
Following the failure of Islamabad talks, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in a near-term peace deal, reflected in declining prices for earlier resolution dates.
U.S. announces full naval blockade of Iranian ports
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a comprehensive blockade of Iran’s ports, signaling a hardening U.S. stance and prompting traders to downgrade the likelihood of any near‑term peace agreement.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports starting April 13
June 30 dips to 51%4%
Following failed talks, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in a permanent peace deal by June 30.
US President Trump announces military blockade of all Iranian ports
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
Trump declared a US naval blockade on all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a deal to end the war. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting market optimism for near-term peace.
US Navy begins naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 plunges to 30%25%
The US military initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This caused market confidence in near-term peace deals to drop.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
The seizure signaled a hardening US stance, undermining confidence that a permanent deal could be reached soon and pushing down odds for all outcomes, especially the near‑term May‑31 date.
Trump declares full U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
December 31 jumps to 54%8%
President Trump announced a full naval blockade of all Iranian ports, prompting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to threaten retaliation and close the Strait of Hormuz. The heightened military stance drove the market’s early upward swing for the “December 31” and “July 31” outcomes as traders priced in increased pressure for a peace deal before the cease‑fire deadline.
US imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports following failed Islamabad talks
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
Following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, President Trump announced a US naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, impacting market confidence in a near-term permanent peace agreement.
President Trump announces full naval blockade of Iranian ports
Yes surges to 70%29%
Trump declared a comprehensive blockade aimed at pressuring Iran to negotiate a permanent peace, raising market optimism that a deal might be forced and pushing Yes prices higher across all horizons.
Trump imposes U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 surges to 76%32%
President Trump announced a blockade of Iranian ports as part of efforts to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal to end the war, raising tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire.
U.S. announces naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 dips to 40%4%
President Trump declared a full‑scale naval blockade of all Iranian ports, intensifying pressure on Tehran and prompting traders to downgrade the odds of a permanent peace deal before any deadline.
United States Imposes Naval Blockade on Iranian Ports Following Failed Islamabad Talks
June 30 surges to 68%27%
Following the failure of the high-level peace talks in Islamabad, President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade on Iranian ports, dampening hopes for an immediate permanent peace deal.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan for talks, Trump opts for phone call
Yes dips to 58%4%
Iran’s top diplomat briefly visited Islamabad while Trump said the sides could discuss the deal by phone, underscoring stalled face‑to‑face negotiations and further depressing market sentiment.
US imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid stalled talks
May 31 drops to 30%14%
The US announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move followed failed initial talks in Pakistan and was intended to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal.
US Vice President and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
On April 11, US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, signaling diplomatic efforts to end hostilities. The talks ended without agreement, causing market uncertainty and limited price movement.
First direct diplomatic talks between Lebanon and Israel in Washington
Yes jumps to 53%5%
The first direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, mediated by the United States, signaled a possible regional de‑escalation, briefly lifting market pessimism and nudging prices up.
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad
On April 11-12, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, signaling diplomatic efforts to end hostilities. The talks ended without agreement, causing market uncertainty and limited price movement.
U.S. Vice President Vance holds talks with Iranian officials in Islamabad
July 31 surges to 50%17%
U.S. Vice President Vance met Iranian officials in Islamabad. The talks ended without a deal, but the very fact of high‑level contact caused a modest rise in the “July 31” odds from 33 % to 50 % over the next two weeks.
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials meet in Islamabad for peace talks
December 31 drops to 63%6%
Diplomatic talks between US and Iranian officials in Islamabad signaled efforts to negotiate a peace deal, but no agreement was reached, causing some market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
US and Iran announce ceasefire amid ongoing conflict
On April 8, 2026, a ceasefire was announced between the US and Iran, marking a pause in hostilities and raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal. However, the ceasefire was temporary and did not constitute a permanent agreement, limiting price increases.
Pakistan brokers two‑week US‑Iran cease‑fire
December 31 surges to 70%15%
A Pakistani‑mediated two‑week cease‑fire was announced, temporarily halting hostilities. Although a short‑term pause, the news lifted market sentiment and the “December 31” price rose sharply from around 55 % to the low‑70 % range within a few days.
US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan
December 31 surges to 69%15%
On April 8, 2026, the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, marking a pause in hostilities and raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal. This ceasefire was a critical step in halting immediate conflict and initiating diplomatic talks.
US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan
May 31 plunges to 26%18%
On April 8, 2026, the US and Iran agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, temporarily halting hostilities and raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal. However, the ceasefire was explicitly temporary and did not qualify as a permanent peace agreement, limiting price increases.
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