Recent sales data through May 2026, showing median prices near $1.7 million with double-digit year-over-year gains amid persistent inventory shortages below 500 active listings in the city proper, underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the $1.230M–$1.244M band at 56%. Strong AI-driven demand in luxury segments, elevated sale-to-list ratios exceeding 107% for condos, and mortgage rates holding near 6.3% have sustained upward pressure on Zillow-style metro home value indices, yet seasonal softening and broader affordability constraints create meaningful contestation with the >$1.244M and $1.216M–$1.230M outcomes. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over June data releases and any late-month inventory shifts that could alter the final median reading.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato>$1.244M 95%
<1,174M$ 1.9%
$1,230M - $1,244M 1.1%
$1.216M - $1.230M <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2026
<1,174M$
2%
$1,174M - $1,188M
<1%
$1.188M - $1.202M
<1%
1,202M $ - 1,216M $
<1%
$1.216M - $1.230M
<1%
$1,230M - $1,244M
1%
>$1.244M
95%
>$1.244M 95%
<1,174M$ 1.9%
$1,230M - $1,244M 1.1%
$1.216M - $1.230M <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2026
<1,174M$
$117 Vol.
2%
$1,174M - $1,188M
$246 Vol.
<1%
$1.188M - $1.202M
$132 Vol.
<1%
1,202M $ - 1,216M $
$152 Vol.
<1%
$1.216M - $1.230M
$462 Vol.
<1%
$1,230M - $1,244M
$485 Vol.
1%
>$1.244M
$805 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/44)Recent sales data through May 2026, showing median prices near $1.7 million with double-digit year-over-year gains amid persistent inventory shortages below 500 active listings in the city proper, underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the $1.230M–$1.244M band at 56%. Strong AI-driven demand in luxury segments, elevated sale-to-list ratios exceeding 107% for condos, and mortgage rates holding near 6.3% have sustained upward pressure on Zillow-style metro home value indices, yet seasonal softening and broader affordability constraints create meaningful contestation with the >$1.244M and $1.216M–$1.230M outcomes. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over June data releases and any late-month inventory shifts that could alter the final median reading.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/44)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/44)
Mercato aperto: Jun 2, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Volume
$2,399Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 2, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/44)Recent sales data through May 2026, showing median prices near $1.7 million with double-digit year-over-year gains amid persistent inventory shortages below 500 active listings in the city proper, underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the $1.230M–$1.244M band at 56%. Strong AI-driven demand in luxury segments, elevated sale-to-list ratios exceeding 107% for condos, and mortgage rates holding near 6.3% have sustained upward pressure on Zillow-style metro home value indices, yet seasonal softening and broader affordability constraints create meaningful contestation with the >$1.244M and $1.216M–$1.230M outcomes. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over June data releases and any late-month inventory shifts that could alter the final median reading.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/44)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/44)
Volume
$2,399Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 2, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent sales data through May 2026, showing median prices near $1.7 million with double-digit year-over-year gains amid persistent inventory shortages below 500 active listings in the city proper, underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the $1.230M–$1.244M band at 56%. Strong AI-driven demand in luxury segments, elevated sale-to-list ratios exceeding 107% for condos, and mortgage rates holding near 6.3% have sustained upward pressure on Zillow-style metro home value indices, yet seasonal softening and broader affordability constraints create meaningful contestation with the >$1.244M and $1.216M–$1.230M outcomes. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over June data releases and any late-month inventory shifts that could alter the final median reading.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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