NATO’s collective defense treaty and established diplomatic channels for resolving disputes underpin the strong trader consensus against any military clash among members before 2027. Despite recent internal strains—including U.S. criticism of European defense spending, selective alliance consultations, and transatlantic policy differences over issues like tariffs and force posture—the alliance continues coordinated responses to external hybrid threats and maintains joint exercises and summits. Historical precedent shows such frictions have been contained through multilateral negotiations rather than escalation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a flare-up in longstanding bilateral tensions, such as between Greece and Turkey over territorial claims, or an unprecedented breakdown in U.S. commitments that fractures alliance cohesion, though these remain low-probability outcomes within the short timeframe.