**Québec solidaire maintains competitive positions in several established Montreal-area ridings despite province-wide polling around 7-9% in recent Léger, Synopsis, and Pallas Data surveys.** Seat projections from 338Canada place the party at roughly five seats on average (range 2-10), anchored by incumbents in ridings such as Gouin and Mercier, where historical vote efficiency and concentrated francophone and urban support provide a buffer. Toss-up contests in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Taschereau, and Jean-Lesage further support retention of at least minimal representation. The election call for October 5 has prompted an active campaign launch by co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal, emphasizing policy differentiation amid a fragmented field led by the Parti Québécois. While overall support has softened and undecided voters remain elevated, structural advantages in key districts keep the probability of securing one or more seats elevated according to trader consensus. No late developments have indicated a collapse below the threshold needed for total exclusion from the National Assembly.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
91% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ott 2026
Sì
91% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ott 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec solidaire maintains competitive positions in several established Montreal-area ridings despite province-wide polling around 7-9% in recent Léger, Synopsis, and Pallas Data surveys.** Seat projections from 338Canada place the party at roughly five seats on average (range 2-10), anchored by incumbents in ridings such as Gouin and Mercier, where historical vote efficiency and concentrated francophone and urban support provide a buffer. Toss-up contests in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Taschereau, and Jean-Lesage further support retention of at least minimal representation.
The election call for October 5 has prompted an active campaign launch by co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal, emphasizing policy differentiation amid a fragmented field led by the Parti Québécois. While overall support has softened and undecided voters remain elevated, structural advantages in key districts keep the probability of securing one or more seats elevated according to trader consensus. No late developments have indicated a collapse below the threshold needed for total exclusion from the National Assembly.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercato aperto: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$238Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec solidaire maintains competitive positions in several established Montreal-area ridings despite province-wide polling around 7-9% in recent Léger, Synopsis, and Pallas Data surveys.** Seat projections from 338Canada place the party at roughly five seats on average (range 2-10), anchored by incumbents in ridings such as Gouin and Mercier, where historical vote efficiency and concentrated francophone and urban support provide a buffer. Toss-up contests in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Taschereau, and Jean-Lesage further support retention of at least minimal representation.
The election call for October 5 has prompted an active campaign launch by co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal, emphasizing policy differentiation amid a fragmented field led by the Parti Québécois. While overall support has softened and undecided voters remain elevated, structural advantages in key districts keep the probability of securing one or more seats elevated according to trader consensus. No late developments have indicated a collapse below the threshold needed for total exclusion from the National Assembly.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$238Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...**Québec solidaire maintains competitive positions in several established Montreal-area ridings despite province-wide polling around 7-9% in recent Léger, Synopsis, and Pallas Data surveys.** Seat projections from 338Canada place the party at roughly five seats on average (range 2-10), anchored by incumbents in ridings such as Gouin and Mercier, where historical vote efficiency and concentrated francophone and urban support provide a buffer. Toss-up contests in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Taschereau, and Jean-Lesage further support retention of at least minimal representation. The election call for October 5 has prompted an active campaign launch by co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal, emphasizing policy differentiation amid a fragmented field led by the Parti Québécois. While overall support has softened and undecided voters remain elevated, structural advantages in key districts keep the probability of securing one or more seats elevated according to trader consensus. No late developments have indicated a collapse below the threshold needed for total exclusion from the National Assembly.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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